Statistical Methods and the Meaning of Probabilities. A Philosopher Looks at Statistics

The talk starts out with a short introduction to the philosophy of probability. I highlight the need to interpret probabilities in the sciences and motivate objectivist accounts of probabilities. Very roughly, according to such accounts, ascriptions of probabilities have truth-conditions that are independent of personal interests and needs. But objectivist accounts are pointless if they do not provide an objectivist epistemology, i.e., if they do not determine well-defined methods to support or falsify claims about probabilities. In the rest of the talk I examine recent philosophical proposals for an objectivist methodology. Most of them take up ideas well-known from statistics. I nevertheless find some proposals incompatible with objectivist aspirations.

Representation via Probabilities: Models of Probabilistic Modeling

How do probabilistic models represent their targets and how do they allow us to learn about them? The answer to this question depends on a number of details, in particular on the meaning of the probabilities involved. To classify the options, a minimalist conception of representation (Su\'arez 2004) is adopted: Modelers devise substitutes (``sources'') of their targets and investigate them to infer something about the target. Probabilistic models allow us to infer probabilities about the target from probabilities about the source. This leads to a framework in which we can systematically distinguish between different models of probabilistic modeling. I develop a fully Bayesian view of probabilistic modeling, but I argue that, as an alternative, Bayesian degrees of belief about the target may be derived from ontic probabilities about the source. Remarkably, some accounts of ontic probabilities can avoid problems if they are supposed to apply to sources only.

The Effect Of Misleading Prior Information On The Subjective Visual Vertical

When tilted sideways participants misperceive the visual vertical assessed by means of a luminous line in otherwise complete dark- ness. A recent modeling approach (De Vrijer et al., 2009) claimed that these typical patterns of errors (known as A- and E-effects) could be explained by as- suming that participants behave in a Bayes optimal manner. In this study, we experimentally manipulate participants’ prior information about body-in-space orientation and measure the effect of this manipulation on the subjective visual vertical (SVV). Specifically, we explore the effects of veridical and misleading instructions about body tilt orientations on the SVV. We used a psychophys- ical 2AFC SVV task at roll tilt angles of 0 degrees, 16 degrees and 4 degrees CW and CCW. Participants were tilted to 4 degrees under different instruction conditions: in one condition, participants received veridical instructions as to their tilt angle, whereas in another condition, participants received the mis- leading instruction that their body position was perfectly upright. Our results indicate systematic differences between the instruction conditions at 4 degrees CW and CCW. Participants did not simply use an ego-centric reference frame in the misleading condition; instead, participants’ estimates of the SVV seem to lie between their head’s Z-axis and the estimate of the SVV as measured in the veridical condition. All participants displayed A-effects at roll tilt an- gles of 16 degrees CW and CCW. We discuss our results in the context of the Bayesian model by De Vrijer et al. (2009), and claim that this pattern of re- sults is consistent with a manipulation of precision of a prior distribution over body-in-space orientations. Furthermore, we introduce a Bayesian Generalized Linear Model for estimating parameters of participants’ psychometric function, which allows us to jointly estimate group level and individual level parameters under all experimental conditions simultaneously, rather than relying on the traditional two-step approach to obtaining group level parameter estimates.

High-speed rotational atherectomy before paclitaxel-eluting stent implantation in complex calcified coronary lesions: the randomized ROTAXUS (Rotational Atherectomy Prior to Taxus Stent Treatment for Complex Native Coronary Artery Disease) trial

OBJECTIVES This study sought to determine the effect of rotational atherectomy (RA) on drug-eluting stent (DES) effectiveness. BACKGROUND DES are frequently used in complex lesions, including calcified stenoses, which may challenge DES delivery, expansion, and effectiveness. RA can adequately modify calcified plaques and facilitate stent delivery and expansion. Its impact on DES effectiveness is widely unknown. METHODS The ROTAXUS (Rotational Atherectomy Prior to TAXUS Stent Treatment for Complex Native Coronary Artery Disease) study randomly assigned 240 patients with complex calcified native coronary lesions to RA followed by stenting (n = 120) or stenting without RA (n = 120, standard therapy group). Stenting was performed using a polymer-based slow-release paclitaxel-eluting stent. The primary endpoint was in-stent late lumen loss at 9 months. Secondary endpoints included angiographic and strategy success, binary restenosis, definite stent thrombosis, and major adverse cardiac events at 9 months. RESULTS Despite similar baseline characteristics, significantly more patients in the standard therapy group were crossed over (12.5% vs. 4.2%, p = 0.02), resulting in higher strategy success in the rotablation group (92.5% vs. 83.3%, p = 0.03). At 9 months, in-stent late lumen loss was higher in the rotablation group (0.44 ± 0.58 vs. 0.31 ± 0.52, p = 0.04), despite an initially higher acute lumen gain (1.56 ± 0.43 vs. 1.44 ± 0.49 mm, p = 0.01). In-stent binary restenosis (11.4% vs. 10.6%, p = 0.71), target lesion revascularization (11.7% vs. 12.5%, p = 0.84), definite stent thrombosis (0.8% vs. 0%, p = 1.0), and major adverse cardiac events (24.2% vs. 28.3%, p = 0.46) were similar in both groups. CONCLUSIONS Routine lesion preparation using RA did not reduce late lumen loss of DES at 9 months. Balloon dilation with only provisional rotablation remains the default strategy for complex calcified lesions before DES implantation.

Effect of ticagrelor on the outcomes of patients with prior coronary artery bypass graft surgery: insights from the PLATelet inhibition and patient outcomes (PLATO) trial

BACKGROUND Patients with prior coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) who present with an acute coronary syndrome have a high risk for recurrent events. Whether intensive antiplatelet therapy with ticagrelor might be beneficial compared with clopidogrel is unknown. In this substudy of the PLATO trial, we studied the effects of randomized treatment dependent on history of CABG. METHODS Patients participating in PLATO were classified according to whether they had undergone prior CABG. The trial's primary and secondary end points were compared using Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS Of the 18,613 study patients, 1,133 (6.1%) had prior CABG. Prior-CABG patients had more high-risk characteristics at study entry and a 2-fold increase in clinical events during follow-up, but less major bleeding. The primary end point (composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and stroke) was reduced to a similar extent by ticagrelor among patients with (19.6% vs 21.4%; adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 0.91 [0.67, 1.24]) and without (9.2% vs 11.0%; adjusted HR, 0.86 [0.77, 0.96]; P(interaction) = .73) prior CABG. Major bleeding was similar with ticagrelor versus clopidogrel among patients with (8.1% vs 8.7%; adjusted HR, 0.89 [0.55, 1.47]) and without (11.8% vs 11.4%; HR, 1.08 [0.98, 1.20]; P(interaction) = .46) prior CABG. CONCLUSIONS Prior-CABG patients presenting with acute coronary syndrome are a high-risk cohort for death and recurrent cardiovascular events but have a lower risk for major bleeding. Similar to the results in no-prior-CABG patients, ticagrelor was associated with a reduction in ischemic events without an increase in major bleeding.

The relations between Arabs and Israelites prior to the rise of Islam

D. S. Margoliouth

Saddlepoint approximations to sensitivities of tail probabilities of random sums and comparisons with Monte Carlo estimators

This article proposes computing sensitivities of upper tail probabilities of random sums by the saddlepoint approximation. The considered sensitivity is the derivative of the upper tail probability with respect to the parameter of the summation index distribution. Random sums with Poisson or Geometric distributed summation indices and Gamma or Weibull distributed summands are considered. The score method with importance sampling is considered as an alternative approximation. Numerical studies show that the saddlepoint approximation and the method of score with importance sampling are very accurate. But the saddlepoint approximation is substantially faster than the score method with importance sampling. Thus, the suggested saddlepoint approximation can be conveniently used in various scientific problems.

Importance sampling approximations to various probabilities of ruin of spectrally negative Lévy risk processes

This article provides importance sampling algorithms for computing the probabilities of various types ruin of spectrally negative Lévy risk processes, which are ruin over the infinite time horizon, ruin within a finite time horizon and ruin past a finite time horizon. For the special case of the compound Poisson process perturbed by diffusion, algorithms for computing probabilities of ruins by creeping (i.e. induced by the diffusion term) and by jumping (i.e. by a claim amount) are provided. It is shown that these algorithms have either bounded relative error or logarithmic efficiency, as t,x→∞t,x→∞, where t>0t>0 is the time horizon and x>0x>0 is the starting point of the risk process, with y=t/xy=t/x held constant and assumed either below or above a certain constant.

Horizontal ridge augmentation in conjunction with or prior to implant placement in the anterior maxilla: a systematic review.

PURPOSE To systematically review clinical studies examining the survival and success rates of implants in horizontal ridge augmentation, either prior to or in conjunction with implant placement in the anterior maxilla. MATERIALS AND METHODS A literature search was undertaken up to September 2012 including clinical studies in English with ≥ 10 consecutively treated patients and a mean follow-up of at least 12 months. Two reviewers screened the pertinent articles and extracted the data. Key words focused on the outcome parameters (implant success, implant survival, horizontal bone gain, and intra- and postoperative complications) in studies utilizing either a simultaneous approach (ridge augmentation performed at the time of implant placement) or a staged approach (ridge augmentation performed prior to implant placement) were analyzed. RESULTS A total of 13 studies met the inclusion criteria, with 2 studies in the simultaneous group and 11 studies in the staged group. In the simultaneous group, survival rates of implants were 100% in both studies, with one study also reporting a 100% implant success rate. No data on horizontal bone gain were available. In the staged group, success rates of implants placed in horizontally augmented ridges ranged from 96.8% to 100% (two studies), and survival rates ranged from 93.5% to 100% (five studies). However, follow-up periods differed widely (up to 4.1 years). Mean horizontal bone gain determined at reentry (implant placement) ranged from 3.4 to 5.0 mm with large overall variations (0 to 9.8 mm, five studies). Intraoperative complications were not reported. Postsurgical complications included mainly mucosal dehiscences (five studies), and, occasionally, complete failures of block grafts were described in one study. CONCLUSIONS Staged and simultaneous augmentation procedures in the anterior maxilla are both associated with high implant success and survival rates. The level of evidence, however, is better for the staged approach than for the simultaneous one.

Thrombolysis in patients with prior stroke within the last 3 months

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Patients with prior stroke within 3 months have been mostly excluded from randomized thrombolysis trials mainly because of the fear of an increased rate of symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage (sICH). The aim of this study was to compare baseline characteristics and clinical outcome of thrombolyzed patients who had a previous stroke within the last 3 months with those not fulfilling this criterion (comparison group). METHODS In all, 1217 patients were included in our analysis (42.2% women, mean age 68.8 ± 14.4 years). RESULTS Patients with previous stroke within the last 3 months (17/1.4%) had more often a basilar artery occlusion (41.2% vs. 10.8%) and less frequently a modified Rankin scale (mRS) score 0-1 prior to index stroke (88.2% vs. 97.3%) and a higher mean time lapse from symptom onset to thrombolysis (321 min vs. 262 min) than those in the comparison group. Stroke severity was not different between the two groups. Rates of sICH were 11.8% vs. 6%. None of the sICHs and only one asymptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage occurred in the region of the former infarct. At 3 months, favorable outcome (mRS ≤ 2) in patients with previous stroke within 3 months was 29.4% (vs. 48.9%) and mortality 41.2% (vs. 22.7%). CONCLUSIONS In patients with prior stroke within the last 3 months, none of the sICHs and only one asymptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage occurred in the region of the former infarct. The high mortality was influenced by four patients, who died until discharge due to acute major index stroke. It is reasonable to include these patients in randomized clinical trials and registries to assess further their thrombolysis benefit-risk ratio.

Gan Meʼir Georgii Weiganmeiri, in Academia Tubingensi Professoris : continens Institutionum hebraeae linguae per tabulas digestarum libros duos: quorum prior vocum absolutarum formationes; posterior earundem mutationes, solide & perfecte explicat, quibus cognitis, lector industrius de tota re grammatica & oratione hebræa facilime iudicare poterit

Text teilw. hebr. in hebr. Schr., teilw. lat.

Zevalin and BEAM (Z-BEAM) versus rituximab and BEAM (R-BEAM) conditioning chemotherapy prior to autologous stem cell transplantation in patients with mantle cell lymphoma.

Early relapse is common in patients with mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) highlighting the unmet need for further improvement of therapeutic options for these patients. CD20 inhibition combined with induction chemotherapy as well as consolidation with high-dose chemotherapy (HDCT) is increasingly considered cornerstones within current therapy algorithms of MCL whereas the role of radioimmunotherapy is unclear. This retrospective single center study compared 46 consecutive MCL patients receiving HDCT in first or second remission. Thirty-five patients had rituximab and BEAM (R-BEAM), and 11 patients received ibritumomab tiuxetan (Zevalin®), an Yttrium-90 labeled CD20 targeting antibody, prior to BEAM (Z-BEAM) followed by autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT). We observed that the 5-year overall survival (OS) in the R-BEAM and Z-BEAM groups was 55% and 71% (p = 0.288), and the 4-year progression free survival (PFS) was 32% and 41%, respectively (p = 0.300). There were no treatment related deaths in both groups, and we observed no differences in toxicities, infection rates or engraftment. Our data suggest that the Z-BEAM conditioning regimen followed by ASCT is well tolerated, but was not associated with significantly improved survival compared to R-BEAM. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.