The Eurasian Economic Union: a time of crisis. OSW COMMENTARY NUMBER 195/27.01.2016

The Eurasian Economic Union (EaEU), a project forced through by Russia which links it to Kazakhstan, Belarus, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan, is currently struggling with serious problems. The economic crisis in Russia – mainly caused by the fall in the price of oil on world markets and exacerbated by sanctions imposed by Western countries in connection with the Ukraine conflict – is affecting these uncompetitive post-Soviet economies which are dependent on Russia. This has resulted in increased economic and political tension among the members of the EaEU. From Russia’s point of view, however, the EaEU project remains useful, because it is not economic integration that is Moscow’s priority. The Union remains its most important instrument for implementing the Kremlin’s geo-political objectives, in particular maintaining its sphere of influence and preventing post-Soviet countries from integrating with the West, as well as restricting their rapprochement with China. Moscow is pushing for the EaEU to include new countries, strengthening its tools for political dominance within the Union, and promoting its project on the international stage. However, the future of this project will depend on both the continued determination of the Kremlin, and whether the other countries can change the rules for integration by taking advantage of the current crisis.

The debt, the stock market and the state-owned enterprises. The sources of chaos on the Chinese financial markets. OSW Commentary NUMBER 201/16.03.2016

The government’s extensive programme for stimulating the economy has enabled China to maintain high economic growth after the global financial crisis in 2008. However, this success has come at the price of a number of negative economic phenomena and the consequences they have had are the major challenge for the government today. The vast programme of investments in infrastructure, construction and fixed assets, which has been the main source of economic growth over the past few years, has caused a rapid increase in China’s debt from 158% of GDP in 2007 to 282% in 2014. Along with the local governments in charge of implementing the programme, the Chinese sector of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) has been heavily burdened by the stimulation policy. The sector’s profitability has fallen, its indebtedness has increased and management problems have been revealed.

Report of commissioner and other documents in connection with the Royal Commission in Re the Alleged Combination of Paper Manufacturers and Dealers.

Henri Thomas Taschereau, commissioner, appointed by special commission issued 25th April, 1901, "to inquire into and report ... whether there exists among manufacturers or dealers of new and printing paper, any trust, combination, association, or agreement of any kind, to unduly enhance the price of said article" [etc.]

The productivity-inflation nexus: The case of the Australian mining sector

This paper examines the causal links between productivity growth and two price series given by domestic inflation and the price of mineral products in Australia's mining sector for the period 1968/1969 to 1997/1998. The study also uses a stochastic translog cost frontier to generate improved estimates of total factor productivity (TFP) growth. The results indicate negative unidirectional causality running from both price series to mining productivity growth. Regression analysis further shows that domestic inflation has a small but adverse effect on mining productivity growth, thus providing some empirical support for Australia's 'inflation first' monetary policy, at least with respect to the mining sector. Inflation in mineral price, on the other hand, has a greater negative effect on mining productivity growth via mineral export growth.

The oil shock of 2005

During the course of 2005, the price of crude oil reached unprecedented high levels, at least in nominal terms. Australian motorists have become used to paying more than a dollar a litre for petrol. Given the past volatility in oil prices, often described in terms of a series of oil ‘shocks’ (the large price increases in 1973, 1979 and 1999), several questions arise. First, will current high prices persist, or will prices decline substantially as occurred after previous oil shocks? Second, is the current shortage of oil a temporary phenomenon, caused by inadequate investment in oil exploration, drilling and refining capacity, or is it a signal that the supply of oil available to the world has peaked? Third, will high oil prices lead to broader economic disruption, as is commonly supposed to have happened after previous shocks? Fourth, how painful will an adjustment to lower use of oil be? Finally, how does all this relate to our efforts to deal with the problem of climate change? This article is an effort to answer some of these questions in the light of the knowledge available to us.

The productivity effects of cattle tick (Boophilus microplus) infestation on cattle, with particular reference to Bos indicus cattle and their crosses

In response to uncertainty among cattle producers in Australia regarding the need to treat Bos indices and B. indicus crossbreeds, the scientific literature relating to the productivity effects of Boophilus microplus on cattle of all breeds was reviewed. Estimates of the mean effect of each engorging tick (damage coefficient, d) were made from a simple analysis of the reported data. On average, each engorging female tick is responsible for the loss of 1.37 +/- 0.25 g bodyweight in B. taunts cattle. The comparable value for B. taurus x B. indicus cattle is 1.18 +/- 0.21 g/engorging tick. These values were not statistically significantly different, indicating that if a threshold approach to tick control were taken, then the threshold number of standard ticks would be the same regardless of cattle genotype. No studies provided useable estimates of the effect of tick infestation on pure B. indices cattle. An economic threshold for treatment, below which acaricide application is not beneficial, can be predicted, using known values for the cost of acaricide application and the price of beef. However, the application of a threshold approach to control has not been embraced by government advisers and runs contrary to the accepted principals of strategic control programs. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Short-term electricity price forecasting using wavelet and SVM techniques

In deregulated electricity market, modeling and forecasting the spot price present a number of challenges. By applying wavelet and support vector machine techniques, a new time series model for short term electricity price forecasting has been developed in this paper. The model employs both historical price and other important information, such as load capacity and weather (temperature), to forecast the price of one or more time steps ahead. The developed model has been evaluated with the actual data from Australian National Electricity Market. The simulation results demonstrated that the forecast model is capable of forecasting the electricity price with a reasonable forecasting accuracy.

Gasification of rubberwood in a downdraft gasifier

The objectives of this research were to investigate the perforamnce of a rubberwood gasifier and engine with electricity generation and to identify opportunities for the implementation of such a system in Malaysia. The experimental work included the design, fabrication and commissioning of a throated downdraft gasifier in Malaysia. The gasifier was subsequently used to investigate the effect of moisture content, dry wood capacity and particle size of rubberwood on gasifier performance. Additional experiments were also conducted to investigate the influence of two different nozzle numbers and two different throat diameters on tar cracking. A total of 101 runs were completed during the duration of the research. From the experimental data, the average mass balance was found to be 92.65%. The average energy balance over the gasifier to hot raw gas was 98.7%, to cold clean gas was 102.4% and over the complete system was 101.9%. The heat loss from the gasifier was estimated to range from 10-26% of the chemical energy of the feedstock. From the downstream operation, the heat loss was estimated to range from 17-37% of the chemical energy of rubberwood feedstock. The maximum throughput for stable operation was found to be 60-70% of the maximum dry wood capacity. The gasifier was found to have a maximum turndown ratio of 5:1. It is also postulated that the phenomenon of turndown of the gasifier is due to a `bubble theory' occurring at the gasification zone, and this hypothesis is explained. For stable power output, the working range of the engine was found to be 5-33.5 kWe. The thermal efficiency and diesel displacement of the engine was found to be 17-18% and 65-70% respectively. The research also showed that rubberwood gasification in Malaysia is feasible if the price of diesel is above MR35/l and the price of wood is below MR120/tonne.

Evaluation of public housing strategies in Mexico City : an exploratory goal programming approach

This thesis describes the development and use of a goal programming methodology for the evaluation of public housjng strategies in Mexico City, The methodology responds to the need to incorporate the location, size and densities of housing projects on the one hand, and "external" constraints such as the ability of low income families to pay for housing, and the amounts of capital and land available, on the other. The provision of low cost housing by public housing agencies in Mexico City is becoming increasingly difficult because there are so many constraints to be met and overcome, the most important of which is the ability of families to pay for housing. Other important limiting factors are the availability of capital and of land plots of the right size in desired locations. The location of public housing projects is significant because it determines the cost and pattern of work trips, which in a metropolitan area such as Mexico City are of considerable importance to both planners and potential. house owners. In addition, since the price of land is closely related to its location, the last factor is also significant in determining the price of the total housing package. Consequently there is a major trade-off between a housing strategy based on the provision of housing at locations close to employment, and the opposite one based on the provjsion of housjng at locations where employment accessibility is poorer but housing can be provided at a lower price. The goal programming evaluation methodology presented in this thesis was developed to aid housing planners to evaluate housing strategies which incorporate the issues raised above,

Technical and economic study of plantain food products

Plantain (Banana-Musa AAB) is a widely growing but commercially underexploited tropical fruit. This study demonstrates the processing of plantain to flour and extends its use and convenience as a constituent of bread, cake and biscuit. Plantain was peeled, dried and milled to produce flour. Proximate analysis was carried out on the flour to determine the food composition. Drying at temperatures below 70ºC produced light coloured plantain flour. Experiments were carried out to determine the mechanism of drying, the heat and mass transfer coefficients, effect of air velocity, temperature and cube size on the rate of drying of plantain cubes. The drying was diffusion controlled. Pilot scale drying of plantain cubes in a cabinet dryer showed no significant increase of drying rate above 70ºC. In the temperature range found most suitable for plantain drying (ie 60 to 70ºC) the total drying time was adequately predicted using a modified equation based on Fick's Law provided the cube temperature was taken to be about 5ºC below the actual drying air temperature. Studies of baking properties of plantain flour revealed that plantain flour can be substituted for strong wheat flour up to 15% for bread making and up to 50% for madeira cake. A shortcake biscuit was produced using 100% plantain flour and test-marketed. Detailed economic studies showed that the production of plantain fruit and its processing into flour would be economically viable in Nigeria when the flour is sold at the wholesale price of NO.65 per kilogram provided a minimum sale of 25% plantain suckers. There is need for government subsidy if plantain flour is to compete with imported wheat flour. The broader economic benefits accruing from the processing of plantain fruit into flour and its use in bakery products include employment opportunity, savings in foreign exchange and stimulus to home agriculture.

Assessing economically viable carbon reductions for the production of ammonia from biomass gasification

Greenhouse gas emissions from fertiliser production are set to increase before stabilising due to the increasing demand to secure sustainable food supplies for a growing global population. However, avoiding the impacts of climate change requires all sectors to decarbonise by a very high level within several decades. Economically viable carbon reductions of substituting natural gas reforming with biomass gasification for ammonia production are assessed using techno-economic and life cycle assessment. Greenhouse gas savings of 65% are achieved for the biomass gasification system and the internal rate of return is 9.8% at base-line biomass feedstock and ammonia prices. Uncertainties in the assumptions have been tested by performing sensitivity analysis, which show, for example with a ±50% change in feedstock price, the rate of return ranges between -0.1% and 18%. It would achieve its target rate of return of 20% at a carbon price of £32/t CO, making it cost competitive compared to using biomass for heat or electricity. However, the ability to remain competitive to investors will depend on the volatility of ammonia prices, whereby a significant decrease would require high carbon prices to compensate. Moreover, since no such project has been constructed previously, there is high technology risk associated with capital investment. With limited incentives for industrial intensive energy users to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, a sensible policy mechanism could target the support of commercial demonstration plants to help ensure this risk barrier is resolved. © 2013 The Authors.

Challenges and emerging solutions in the development of compressed orally disintegrating tablets

Areas covered: The review discusses the main challenges of ODT manufacturing process and the emerging solutions featured at early drug development stages. The research specifically describes the methods reported for taste masking/assessment and solubilisation of unpalatable and poorly soluble drugs, respectively. Furthermore, this review highlights the techniques used for developing modified-release ODTs, an emerging area in the field. In addition, it also discusses the poor flowability and segregation problems of directly compressed powders. Moreover, the review describes the tests reported in the literature for ODT disintegration time assessment since a universal technique is still non-existent. Expert opinion: The approaches used to overcome the manufacturing challenges often have a bearing on the price of the end product. However, despite the technical and regulatory challenges, ODTs can offer many advantages over the conventional dosage forms if accompanied by suitable adjuvant technologies and in vitro analytical tools. © 2014 Informa UK, Ltd. Introduction: Orally disintegrating tablets (ODTs) provide several advantages over conventional tablets such as suitability for patients with swallowing difficulties and faster onset of action. The manufacture of ODTs by compression/tableting offers a practical and cost-effective strategy over the freeze drying (lyophilisation) method. Nonetheless, the FDA recommends a disintegration time of 30 s and a maximum weight of 500 mg for a tablet to be labelled as an ODT. These requirements, alongside other desirable product properties, have created a number of challenges for the formulator to overcome while developing compressed ODTs.

Assessing economically viable carbon reductions for the production of ammonia from biomass gasification

Greenhouse gas emissions from fertiliser production are set to increase before stabilising due to the increasing demand to secure sustainable food supplies for a growing global population. However, avoiding the impacts of climate change requires all sectors to decarbonise by a very high level within several decades. Economically viable carbon reductions of substituting natural gas reforming with biomass gasification for ammonia production are assessed using techno-economic and life cycle assessment. Greenhouse gas savings of 65% are achieved for the biomass gasification system and the internal rate of return is 9.8% at base-line biomass feedstock and ammonia prices. Uncertainties in the assumptions have been tested by performing sensitivity analysis, which show, for example with a ±50% change in feedstock price, the rate of return ranges between -0.1% and 18%. It would achieve its target rate of return of 20% at a carbon price of £32/t CO, making it cost competitive compared to using biomass for heat or electricity. However, the ability to remain competitive to investors will depend on the volatility of ammonia prices, whereby a significant decrease would require high carbon prices to compensate. Moreover, since no such project has been constructed previously, there is high technology risk associated with capital investment. With limited incentives for industrial intensive energy users to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, a sensible policy mechanism could target the support of commercial demonstration plants to help ensure this risk barrier is resolved. © 2013 The Authors.

Toward a new generation of photonic humidity sensors

This review offers new perspectives on the subject and highlights an area in need of further research. It includes an analysis of current scientific literature mainly covering the last decade and examines the trends in the development of electronic, acoustic and optical-fiber humidity sensors over this period. The major findings indicate that a new generation of sensor technology based on optical fibers is emerging. The current trends suggest that electronic humidity sensors could soon be replaced by sensors that are based on photonic structures. Recent scientific advances are expected to allow dedicated systems to avoid the relatively high price of interrogation modules that is currently a major disadvantage of fiber-based sensors.