Gaussian Process training with input noise

In standard Gaussian Process regression input locations are assumed to be noise free. We present a simple yet effective GP model for training on input points corrupted by i.i.d. Gaussian noise. To make computations tractable we use a local linear expansion about each input point. This allows the input noise to be recast as output noise proportional to the squared gradient of the GP posterior mean. The input noise variances are inferred from the data as extra hyperparameters. They are trained alongside other hyperparameters by the usual method of maximisation of the marginal likelihood. Training uses an iterative scheme, which alternates between optimising the hyperparameters and calculating the posterior gradient. Analytic predictive moments can then be found for Gaussian distributed test points. We compare our model to others over a range of different regression problems and show that it improves over current methods.

Fault-tolerant model predictive control of a wind turbine benchmark

This paper aims to solve the fault tolerant control problem of a wind turbine benchmark. A hierarchical controller with model predictive pre-compensators, a global model predictive controller and a supervisory controller is proposed. In the model predictive pre-compensator, an extended Kalman Filter is designed to estimate the system states and various fault parameters. Based on the estimation, a group of model predictive controllers are designed to compensate the fault effects for each component of the wind turbine. The global MPC is used to schedule the operation of the components and exploit potential system-level redundancies. Extensive simulations of various fault conditions show that the proposed controller has small transients when faults occur and uses smoother and smaller generator torque and pitch angle inputs than the default controller. This paper shows that MPC can be a good candidate for fault tolerant controllers, especially the one with an adaptive internal model combined with a parameter estimation and update mechanism, such as an extended Kalman Filter. © 2012 IFAC.

Predictive control of a Boeing 747 aircraft using an FPGA

New embedded predictive control applications call for more eficient ways of solving quadratic programs (QPs) in order to meet demanding real-time, power and cost requirements. A single precision QP-on-a-chip controller is proposed, implemented in afield-programmable gate array (FPGA) with an iterative linear solver at its core. A novel offline scaling procedure is introduced to aid the convergence of the reduced precision solver. The feasibility of the proposed approach is demonstrated with a real-time hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) experimental setup where an ML605 FPGA board controls a nonlinear model of a Boeing 747 aircraft running on a desktop PC through an Ethernet link. Simulations show that the quality of the closed-loop control and accuracy of individual solutions is competitive with a conventional double precision controller solving linear systems using a Riccati recursion. © 2012 IFAC.

Channel-hopping model predictive control

In Multiplexed MPC, the control variables of a MIMO plant are moved asynchronously, following a pre-planned periodic sequence. The advantage of Multiplexed MPC lies in its reduced computational complexity, leading to faster response to disturbances, which may result in improved performance, despite finding sub-optimal solution to the original problem. This paper extends the original Multiplexed MPC in a way such that the control inputs are no longer restricted to a pre-planned periodic sequence. Instead, the most appropriate control input channel would be optimised and selected to counter the disturbances, hence the name 'Channel-Hopping'. In addition, the proposed algorithm is suitable for execution on modern computing platforms such as FPGA or GPU, exploits multi-core, parallel and pipeline computing techniques. The algorithm for the proposed Channel-hopping MPC (CH-MPC) will be described and its stability established. Illustrative examples are given to demonstrate the behaviour of the proposed Channel-Hopping MPC algorithm. © 2011 IFAC.

Robust predictive control with feasible contingencies for fault tolerance

This paper introduces the notion of M-step robust fault tolerance for discrete-time systems where finite-time completion of a control manoeuvre is desired. It considers a scenario with two distinct objectives; a primary and secondary target are specified as sets to be reached in finite-time, whilst satisfying operating constraints on the states and inputs. The primary target is switched to the secondary target when a fault affects the system. As it is unknown when or if the fault will occur, the trajectory to the primary target is constrained to ensure reachability of the secondary target within M steps. A variable-horizon linear MPC formulation is developed to illustrate the concept. The formulation is then extended to provide robustness to bounded disturbances by use of tightened constraints. Simulations demonstrate the efficacy of the controller formulation on a double-integrator model. © 2011 IFAC.

Performance evaluation of multiplexed model predictive control for a large airliner in nominal and contingency scenarios

Model predictive control allows systematic handling of physical and operational constraints through the use of constrained optimisation. It has also been shown to successfully exploit plant redundancy to maintain a level of control in scenarios when faults are present. Unfortunately, the computational complexity of each individual iteration of the algorithm to solve the optimisation problem scales cubically with the number of plant inputs, so the computational demands are high for large MIMO plants. Multiplexed MPC only calculates changes in a subset of the plant inputs at each sampling instant, thus reducing the complexity of the optimisation. This paper demonstrates the application of multiplexed model predictive control to a large transport airliner in a nominal and a contingency scenario. The performance is compared to that obtained with a conventional synchronous model predictive controller, designed using an equivalent cost function. © 2012 AACC American Automatic Control Council).

Linear quadratic game and non-cooperative predictive methods for potential application to modelling driver-AFS interactive steering control

This paper is concerned with the modelling of strategic interactions between the human driver and the vehicle active front steering (AFS) controller in a path-following task where the two controllers hold different target paths. The work is aimed at extending the use of mathematical models in representing driver steering behaviour in complicated driving situations. Two game theoretic approaches, namely linear quadratic game and non-cooperative model predictive control (non-cooperative MPC), are used for developing the driver-AFS interactive steering control model. For each approach, the open-loop Nash steering control solution is derived; the influences of the path-following weights, preview and control horizons, driver time delay and arm neuromuscular system (NMS) dynamics are investigated, and the CPU time consumed is recorded. It is found that the two approaches give identical time histories as well as control gains, while the non-cooperative MPC method uses much less CPU time. Specifically, it is observed that the introduction of weight on the integral of vehicle lateral displacement error helps to eliminate the steady-state path-following error; the increase in preview horizon and NMS natural frequency and the decline in time delay and NMS damping ratio improve the path-following accuracy. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

Predictive techniques for turbulent oscillatory flows

The prediction of turbulent oscillatory flow at around transitional Reynolds numbers is considered for an idealized electronics system. To assess the accuracy of turbulence models, comparison is made with measurements. A stochastic procedure is used to recover instantaneous velocity time traces from predictions. This procedure enables more direct comparison with turbulence intensity measurements which have not been filtered to remove the oscillatory flow component. Normal wall distances, required in some turbulence models, are evaluated using a modified Poisson equation based technique. A range of zero, one and two equation turbulence models are tested, including zonal and a non-linear eddy viscosity models. The non-linear and zonal models showed potential for accuracy improvements.

Machine learning for predictive condensed-phase simulation

We show how machine learning techniques based on Bayesian inference can be used to reach new levels of realism in the computer simulation of molecular materials, focusing here on water. We train our machine-learning algorithm using accurate, correlated quantum chemistry, and predict energies and forces in molecular aggregates ranging from clusters to solid and liquid phases. The widely used electronic-structure methods based on density-functional theory (DFT) give poor accuracy for molecular materials like water, and we show how our techniques can be used to generate systematically improvable corrections to DFT. The resulting corrected DFT scheme gives remarkably accurate predictions for the relative energies of small water clusters and of different ice structures, and greatly improves the description of the structure and dynamics of liquid water.

Optimal constraint tightening policies for robust variable horizon model predictive control

This paper develops a technique for improving the region of attraction of a robust variable horizon model predictive controller. It considers a constrained discrete-time linear system acted upon by a bounded, but unknown time-varying state disturbance. Using constraint tightening for robustness, it is shown how the tightening policy, parameterised as direct feedback on the disturbance, can be optimised to increase the volume of an inner approximation to the controller's true region of attraction. Numerical examples demonstrate the benefits of the policy in increasing region of attraction volume and decreasing the maximum prediction horizon length. © 2012 IEEE.

Neural activity associated with the passive prediction of ambiguity and risk for aversive events.

In economic decision making, outcomes are described in terms of risk (uncertain outcomes with certain probabilities) and ambiguity (uncertain outcomes with uncertain probabilities). Humans are more averse to ambiguity than to risk, with a distinct neural system suggested as mediating this effect. However, there has been no clear disambiguation of activity related to decisions themselves from perceptual processing of ambiguity. In a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) experiment, we contrasted ambiguity, defined as a lack of information about outcome probabilities, to risk, where outcome probabilities are known, or ignorance, where outcomes are completely unknown and unknowable. We modified previously learned pavlovian CS+ stimuli such that they became an ambiguous cue and contrasted evoked brain activity both with an unmodified predictive CS+ (risky cue), and a cue that conveyed no information about outcome probabilities (ignorance cue). Compared with risk, ambiguous cues elicited activity in posterior inferior frontal gyrus and posterior parietal cortex during outcome anticipation. Furthermore, a similar set of regions was activated when ambiguous cues were compared with ignorance cues. Thus, regions previously shown to be engaged by decisions about ambiguous rewarding outcomes are also engaged by ambiguous outcome prediction in the context of aversive outcomes. Moreover, activation in these regions was seen even when no actual decision is made. Our findings suggest that these regions subserve a general function of contextual analysis when search for hidden information during outcome anticipation is both necessary and meaningful.

Modulation of pain ratings by expectation and uncertainty: Behavioral characteristics and anticipatory neural correlates.

Expectations about the magnitude of impending pain exert a substantial effect on subsequent perception. However, the neural mechanisms that underlie the predictive processes that modulate pain are poorly understood. In a combined behavioral and high-density electrophysiological study we measured anticipatory neural responses to heat stimuli to determine how predictions of pain intensity, and certainty about those predictions, modulate brain activity and subjective pain ratings. Prior to receiving randomized laser heat stimuli at different intensities (low, medium or high) subjects (n=15) viewed cues that either accurately informed them of forthcoming intensity (certain expectation) or not (uncertain expectation). Pain ratings were biased towards prior expectations of either high or low intensity. Anticipatory neural responses increased with expectations of painful vs. non-painful heat intensity, suggesting the presence of neural responses that represent predicted heat stimulus intensity. These anticipatory responses also correlated with the amplitude of the Laser-Evoked Potential (LEP) response to painful stimuli when the intensity was predictable. Source analysis (LORETA) revealed that uncertainty about expected heat intensity involves an anticipatory cortical network commonly associated with attention (left dorsolateral prefrontal, posterior cingulate and bilateral inferior parietal cortices). Relative certainty, however, involves cortical areas previously associated with semantic and prospective memory (left inferior frontal and inferior temporal cortex, and right anterior prefrontal cortex). This suggests that biasing of pain reports and LEPs by expectation involves temporally precise activity in specific cortical networks.

Predictive neural coding of reward preference involves dissociable responses in human ventral midbrain and ventral striatum.

Food preferences are acquired through experience and can exert strong influence on choice behavior. In order to choose which food to consume, it is necessary to maintain a predictive representation of the subjective value of the associated food stimulus. Here, we explore the neural mechanisms by which such predictive representations are learned through classical conditioning. Human subjects were scanned using fMRI while learning associations between arbitrary visual stimuli and subsequent delivery of one of five different food flavors. Using a temporal difference algorithm to model learning, we found predictive responses in the ventral midbrain and a part of ventral striatum (ventral putamen) that were related directly to subjects' actual behavioral preferences. These brain structures demonstrated divergent response profiles, with the ventral midbrain showing a linear response profile with preference, and the ventral striatum a bivalent response. These results provide insight into the neural mechanisms underlying human preference behavior.

Opponent appetitive-aversive neural processes underlie predictive learning of pain relief.

Termination of a painful or unpleasant event can be rewarding. However, whether the brain treats relief in a similar way as it treats natural reward is unclear, and the neural processes that underlie its representation as a motivational goal remain poorly understood. We used fMRI (functional magnetic resonance imaging) to investigate how humans learn to generate expectations of pain relief. Using a pavlovian conditioning procedure, we show that subjects experiencing prolonged experimentally induced pain can be conditioned to predict pain relief. This proceeds in a manner consistent with contemporary reward-learning theory (average reward/loss reinforcement learning), reflected by neural activity in the amygdala and midbrain. Furthermore, these reward-like learning signals are mirrored by opposite aversion-like signals in lateral orbitofrontal cortex and anterior cingulate cortex. This dual coding has parallels to 'opponent process' theories in psychology and promotes a formal account of prediction and expectation during pain.