The role of indigenous people in national development processes: Participation and marginalisation of indigenous Bedouin in South Sinai tourism development

The Bedouin of South Sinai have been significantly affected by the politics of external powers for a long time. However, never had the interest of external powers in Sinai been so strong as since the Israeli-Egyptian wars in the second half of the 20th century when Bedouin interests started to collide with Egypt’s plans for a development of luxury tourism in South Sinai. rnrnThe tourism boom that has started in the 1980s has brought economic and infrastructure development to the Bedouin and tourism has become the most important source of income for the Bedouin. However, while the absolute increase of tourists to Sinai has trickled down to the Bedouin to some extent, the participation of Bedouin in the overall tourism development is under-proportionate. Moreover, the Bedouin have become increasingly dependent on monetary income and consequently from tourism as the only significant source of income while at the same time they have lost much of their land as well as their self-determination.rnrnIn this context, the Bedouin livelihoods have become very vulnerable due to repeated depressions in the tourism industry as well as marginalization. Major marginalization processes the Bedouin are facing are the loss of land, barriers to market entry, especially increasingly strict rules and regulations in the tourism industry, as well as discrimination by the authorities. Social differentiation and Bedouin preferences are identified as further factors in Bedouin marginalization.rnrnThe strategies Bedouin have developed in response to all these problems are coping strategies, which try to deal with the present problem at the individual level. Basically no strategies have been developed at the collective level that would aim to actively shape the Bedouin’s present and future. Collective action has been hampered by a variety of factors, such as the speed of the developments, the distribution of power or the decay of tribal structures.rnWhile some Bedouin might be able to continue their tourism activities, a large number of informal jobs will not be feasible anymore. The majority of the previously mostly self-employed Bedouin will probably be forced to work as day-laborers who will have lost much of their pride, dignity, sovereignty and freedom. Moreover, with a return to subsistence being impossible for the majority of the Bedouin, it is likely that an increasing number of marginalized Bedouin will turn to illegal income generating activities such as smuggling or drug cultivation. This in turn will lead to further repression and discrimination and could escalate in a serious violent conflict between the Bedouin and the government.rnrnDevelopment plans and projects should address the general lack of civil rights, local participation and protection of minorities in Egypt and promote Bedouin community development and the consideration of Bedouin interests in tourism development.rnrnWether the political upheavals and the resignation of president Mubarak at the beginning of 2011 will have a positive effect on the situation of the Bedouin remains to be seen.rn

Are there genetic breaks between Atlantic and Pacific Yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) populations? A preliminary study based on microsatellites gene variation

Yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares, YFT, Bonnaterre 1788) is one of the most important market tuna species in the world. The high mortality of juveniles is in part caused by their bycatch. Indeed, if unregulated, it could permanently destabilize stocks health. For this reason investigating and better knowing the stock boundaries represent a crucial concern. Aim of this thesis was to preliminary investigate the YFT population structure within and between Atlantic and Pacific Oceans through the analysis of genetic variation at eight microsatellite loci and assess the occurrence of barriers to the gene flow between Oceans. For this propouse we collected 4 geographical samples coming from Atlantic and Pacific Ocean and selected a panel of 8 microsatellites loci developped by Antoni et al., (2014). Samples 71-2-Y and 77-2-Y, came from rispectively west central pacific ocean (WCPO) and east central pacific ocean (ECPO), instead samples 41-1-Y and 34-2-Y derive from west central atlantic ocean (WCAO) and east central atlantic ocean (ECAO). Total 160 specimens were analyzed (40 per sample) and were carried out several genetic information as allele frequencies, allele number, allelic richness, HWE (using He and Ho) and pairwise Fst genetic distance. Results obtained, may support the panmictic theory of this species, only one of pairwise Fst obtained is statistically significant (Fst= 0.00927; pV= 0.00218) between 41-1-Y and 71-2-Y samples. Results suggest low genetic differentiation and consequent high level of gene flow between Atlantic and Pacific populations. Furthermore, we performed an analysis of molecular taxonomy through the use of ATCO (the flaking region between ATPse6 and cytochrome oxidase subunit III genes mt DNA, to discriminate within the gener Thunnus two of the related species (Yellofin and bigeye tuna) according with their difficult recognition at certain size (<40 cm). ATCO analysis in this thesis, has provided strong discriminate evidence between the target species proving to be one of the most reliable genetic tools capable to indagate within the genus Thunnus. Thus, our study has provided useful information for possible use of this protocol for conservation plans and management of this fish stocks.

The Permanent Income Hypothesis: A Test on Czech Privatisation

Since the late eighties, economists have been regarding the transition from command to market economies in Central and Eastern Europe with intense interest. In addition to studying the transition per se, they have begun using the region as a testing ground on which to investigate the validity of certain classic economic propositions. In his research, comprising three articles written in English and totalling 40 pages, Mr. Hanousek uses the so-called "Czech national experiment" (voucher privatisation scheme) to test the permanent income hypothesis (PIH). He took as his inspiration Kreinin's recommendation: "Since data concerning the behaviour of windfall income recipients is relatively scanty, and since such data can constitute an important test of the permanent income hypothesis, it is of interest to bring to bear on the hypothesis whatever information is available". Mr. Hanousek argues that, since the transfer of property to Czech citizens from 1992 to 1994 through the voucher scheme was not anticipated, it can be regarded as windfall income. The average size of the windfall was more than three month's salary and over 60 percent of the Czech population received this unexpected income. Furthermore, there are other reasons for conducting such an analysis in the Czech Republic. Firstly, the privatisation process took place quickly. Secondly, both the economy and consumer behaviour have been very stable. Thirdly, out of a total population of 10 million Czech citizens, an astonishing 6 million, that is, virtually every household, participated in the scheme. Thus Czech voucher privatisation provides a sample for testing the PIH almost equivalent to a full population, thus avoiding problems with the distribution of windfalls. Compare this, for instance with the fact that only 4% of the Israeli urban population received personal restitution from Germany, while the number of veterans who received the National Service Life Insurance Dividends amounted to less than 9% of the US population and were concentrated in certain age groups. But to begin with, Mr. Hanousek considers the question of whether the public percieves the transfer from the state to individual as an increase in net wealth. It can be argued that the state is only divesting itself of assets that would otherwise provide a future source of transfers. According to this argument, assigning these assets to individuals creates an offsetting change in the present value of potential future transfers so that individuals are no better off after the transfer. Mr. Hanousek disagrees with this approach. He points out that a change in the ownership of inefficient state-owned enterprises should lead to higher efficiency, which alone increases the value of enterprises and creates a windfall increase in citizens' portfolios. More importantly, the state and individuals had very different preferences during the transition. Despite government propaganda, it is doubtful that citizens of former communist countries viewed government-owned enterprises as being operated in the citizens' best interest. Moreover, it is unlikely that the public fully comprehended the sophisticated links between the state budget, state-owned enterprises, and transfers to individuals. Finally, the transfers were not equal across the population. Mr. Hanousek conducted a survey on 1263 individuals, dividing them into four monthly earnings categories. After determining whether the respondent had participated in the voucher process, he asked those who had how much of what they received from voucher privatisation had been (a) spent on goods and services, (b) invested elsewhere, (c) transferred to newly emerging pension funds, (d) given to a family member, and (e) retained in their original form as an investment. Both the mean and the variance of the windfall rise with income. He obtained similar results with respect to education, where the mean (median) windfall for those with a basic school education was 13,600 Czech Crowns (CZK), a figure that increased to 15,000 CZK for those with a high school education without exams, 19,900 CZK for high school graduates with exams, and 24,600 CZK for university graduates. Mr. Hanousek concludes that it can be argued that higher income (and better educated) groups allocated their vouchers or timed the disposition of their shares better. He turns next to an analysis of how respondents reported using their windfalls. The key result is that only a relatively small number of individuals reported spending on goods. Overall, the results provide strong support for the permanent income hypothesis, the only apparent deviation being the fact that both men and women aged 26 to 35 apparently consume more than they should if the windfall were annuitised. This finding is still fully consistent with the PIH, however, if this group is at a stage in their life-cycle where, without the windfall, they would be borrowing to finance consumption associated with family formation etc. Indeed, the PIH predicts that individuals who would otherwise borrow to finance consumption would consume the windfall up to the level equal to the annuitised fraction of the increase in lifetime income plus the full amount of the previously planned borrowing for consumption. Greater consumption would then be financed, not from investing the windfall, but from avoidance of future repayment obligations for debts that would have been incurred without the windfall.

Siberian Wooden Churches: Reality and Symbolics

The preservation of Siberia's cultural heritage poses a serious problem. Many Siberian churches were destroyed or reconstructed, without their original form being carefully described. Mainicheva studied the question of Siberian wooden churches of the 17th-18th centuries, producing a complex analysis of their symbolism, phenomenology and morphology. Published and archival materials show that such unique churches as the Sophia Cathedral in Tobolesk (1621), the Trinity Church in Tomsk (1654) and the Church of Kazan Holy Mother in Ilimsk (1679) directly reflected the main features of medieval Russian culture combined with new perceptions of Man and the Universe. These Russian Orthodox churches have considerable significance for understanding the natural development of Russian architecture as a part of the Russian culture of permanently moving people. All these churches, which no longer exist in their original form, were built by unknown folk builders and represented a good example of non-professional architecture. Mainicheva developed full descriptions of the churches, including graphic reconstructions of their original plans and facades.

The determinants of physician and pharmacist utilization and equity of access under Korean universal health insurance

This study examines the social and behavioral determinants of two types of primary care, seeing a physician or a pharmacist, for Koreans and evaluates the equity of the Korean national health insurance system. The study applies the Aday and Andersen access framework to cross-sectional data from the 1992 Korean National Health Interview Survey (N = 21,841).^ The study found that in Korea, the elderly were most likely, and children least likely, to have used physician services. Women, household heads, those in small families, and the less educated were more likely than their counterparts to use physician and pharmacist services. Health status and need were important determinants of Koreans seeing a doctor or a pharmacist. Differences in need substantially accounted for the original differences observed between subgroups. Resources associated with having insurance coverage, a regular source of care, and place of residence (rural/urban) ameliorated to some extent the subgroup differences in the use of physicians' and pharmacists' services among Koreans. They were also major independent predictors of access. Having insurance remains a particularly important predictor of who uses physician services. Among the insured, trade-offs in the use of physician and pharmacist services were found in the current system, i.e., uninsured and poor Koreans were more likely to use pharmacist services, while insured and rural Koreans were more likely to use doctor services. Among the insured, cost sharing rates are lower for physician than for pharmacist services. Self-employed persons were less likely than government and industrial workers to use physician services. An underlying expectation under universal health insurance was that the Korean health care system would be equitable. The research results, however, did not fully support this expectation.^ The policy implications of these findings are that measures are required to extend insurance coverage to the uninsured, to equalize differences in benefit packages between health plans, and to expand the availability of physicians in rural areas. Further research is also needed to understand those who do not currently have a regular source of care and why and the access barriers that may exist for selected demographic subgroups (those in large families and unmarried or divorced/widowed persons). ^

Avalanche related damage potential - changes of persons and mobile values since the mid-twentieth century, case study Galtür

When determining risk related to natural hazard processes, many studies neglect the investigations of the damage potential or are limited to the assessment of immobile values like buildings. However, persons as well as mobile values form an essential part of the damage potential. Knowledge of the maximum number of exposed persons in an endangered area is of great importance for elaborating evacuation plans and immediate measures in case of catastrophes. In addition, motor vehicles can also be highly damaged, as was shown by the analysis of avalanche events. With the removal of mobile values in time as a preventive measure this kind of damage can be minimised. This study presents a method for recording the maximum number of exposed persons and monetarily assessing motor vehicles in the municipality of Galt¨ur (Tyrol, Austria). Moreover, general developments of the damage potential due to significant socio-economic changes since the mid-twentieth century are pointed out in the study area. The present situation of the maximum number of persons and mobile values in the official avalanche hazard zones of the municipality is described in detail. Information on the number of persons is derived of census data, tourism and employment statistics. During the winter months, a significant increase overlaid by strong short-term fluctuation in the number of persons can be noted. These changes result from a higher demand of tourism related manpower as well as from varying occupancy rates. The number of motor vehicles in endangered areas is closely associated to the number of exposed persons. The potential number of motor vehicles is investigated by means of mapping, statistics on the stock of motor vehicles and the density distribution. Diurnal and seasonal fluctuations of the investigated damage potential are pointed out. The recording of the number of persons and mobile values in endangered areas is vital for any disaster management.

Multigrade teaching in primary education as a promising pedagogy for teacher education in Austria and Finland

This chapter focuses on teaching practices used in multigrade classes and the importance of them being incorporated in teacher education as promising pedagogies for future use. Multigrade classes - defined as classes in which two or more grades are taught together - are common worldwide. Hence, there is a need for teacher candidates to become familiar with how to teach in split grade classrooms. However, research on multigrade teaching as well as its development in teacher education studies has been neglected, even though multigrade teachers need special skills to organize instruction in their heterogeneous classrooms. We argue that in successful multigrade teaching practices, the heterogeneity of students is taken into account and cultivated. Based on content analysis of teacher interviews conducted in Austrian and Finnish primary schools, we recommend teaching practices such as spiral curricula, working plans, and peer learning as promising teacher education pedagogies for future multigrade class teaching. We also suggest that the professional skills required in high-quality teaching practices in multigrade teaching should be further studied by researchers and educators.

The Economics of Incentive-Based Health Care Plans

Medical savings accounts (MSAs) belong to a larger class of incentive-based health care plans. Using a model that allows the consumer to invest in healthy activities, we examine the efficiency properties of incentive plans and compare them to traditional full- coverage and deductible plans, under both experience rating and community rating. The model also is extended to include utilization of preventive health care. Properly constructed incentive plans have the capacity to induce socially efficient levels of healthy activities and preventive care, raising the expected wealth of consumers without reducing insurers' profits.

An overview of China's one child policy and health consequences on society

In 1979, China implemented the one child policy to stifle the burden of the massive demographic growth cast on the future economic development and quality of living conditions. At the time, a quarter of the world's population resided in China and occupied only 7 percent of the world's arable land (The World Factbook, 2006). The government set the target total population to about 1.4 billion for the year 2010 and to significantly reduce the natural increase rate. First this overview paper will describe population demographics and economy of China's society. This paper will also investigate what the one child policy entails and how it is implemented. Furthermore, the consequences of the policy in regard to population growth, sex ratio, marital discrepancies, adverse health of mother and child, aging population, and pension coverage will be examined. Finally, future recommendations and an alternative policy will be postulated to increase the effectiveness of the policy and improve its effects on health. ^

A model for use by local public health departments to evaluate pandemic influenza plans

The events of the 1990's and early 2000's demonstrated the need for effective planning and response to natural and man-made disasters. One of those potential natural disasters is pandemic flu. Once defined, the CDC stated that program, or plan, effectiveness is improved through the process of program evaluation. (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1999) Program evaluation should be accomplished not only periodically, but in the course of routine administration of the program. (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1999) Accomplishing this task for a "rare, but significant event" is challenging. (Herbold, John R., PhD., 2008) To address this challenge, the RAND Corporation (under contract to the CDC) developed the "Facilitated Look-Backs" approach that was tested and validated at the state level. (Aledort et al., 2006).^ Nevertheless, no comprehensive and generally applicable pandemic influenza program evaluation tool or model is readily found for use at the local public health department level. This project developed such a model based on the "Facilitated Look-Backs" approach developed by RAND Corporation. (Aledort et al., 2006) Modifications to the RAND model included stakeholder additions, inclusion of all six CDC program evaluation steps, and suggestions for incorporating pandemic flu response plans in seasonal flu management implementation. Feedback on the model was then obtained from three LPHD's—one rural, one suburban, and one urban. These recommendations were incorporated into the final model. Feedback from the sites also supported the assumption that this model promotes the effective and efficient evaluation of both pandemic flu and seasonal flu response by reducing redundant evaluations of pandemic flu plans, seasonal flu plans, and funding requirement accountability. Site feedback also demonstrated that the model is comprehensive and flexible, so it can be adapted and applied to different LPHD needs and settings. It also stimulates evaluation of the major issues associated with pandemic flu planning. ^ The next phase in evaluating this model should be to apply it in a program evaluation of one or more LPHD's seasonal flu response that incorporates pandemic flu response plans.^

Determining the feasibility and acceptability of a garden-based nutrition curriculum for preschoolers

Obesity rates around the nation have risen to epidemic proportions. Rates of childhood obesity are at very high levels with 24.4% of preschool-aged children in the U.S. currently considered as overweight or obese. The percentage of childhood obesity is much higher in the southern part of the United States as compared to the rest of the nation. Minority populations, especially African American and Hispanic, are affected more than other ethnic groups. Obesity prevention programs are needed targeting young children <6 years of age from minority populations. Currently, there are few obesity prevention programs that have been implemented and evaluated in children <6 years of age. Gardening programs have been successful in improving the health status of elementary school children by increasing fruit and vegetable intake and increasing preferences for healthier food choices. However, there is no evidence of the feasibility and acceptability of a garden-based obesity prevention program among preschoolers. This pretest study, a classroom-based gardening curriculum program with 16 lesson plans and coordinating activities for preschool age children (3-5 years old) enrolled in Head Start, provides the opportunity to address this need. The study included 103 preschoolers from two centers and 9 teachers or teachers' aides. Qualitative data on feasibility and acceptability was collected from process evaluation forms of individual lesson plans and focus groups with teachers. Teacher questionnaires assessed individual teacher characteristics and provided feedback regarding the curriculum. Quantitative measures of teachers' self-efficacy, attitudes, and knowledge pertaining to nutrition were analyzed from pre and post-test surveys. Results revealed this preschool garden-based nutrition curriculum was both feasible and acceptable. The program improved teacher's self-efficacy, knowledge, and attitudes about nutrition, with teacher's confidence in ability to teach a gardening curriculum increasing from a mean score of 2.14 to 3.00 from pre to post test (P value = 0.0046). These results indicate implementing garden-based nutrition lessons within preschools is achievable. Employing garden-based nutrition lessons in the classroom is the first step in teaching children about nutrition and gardening concepts. Constructing gardening beds for more hands-on learning is the next proposed step in the larger parent study of this program.^

Development and institutionalization of communitarian thought in Thailand

In Thailand, communitarian ideas have been widely accepted and even institutionalized as a principle of national development plans and the Constitution of Thailand. This paper examines how and why the communitarian body of thought, described as "community culture thought," and originally created and shared within a small circle of social activists and academics in the early 1980s, came to be disseminated and authorized in Thai society. Contributors and participants, ways of expression, and avenues for disseminating this paradigm are the main topics in this paper. The paper reveals that these thoughts and concepts have been diversified and used as guiding principles by state elites, anti-state activists, and social reformists since the late 1980s. These people with such different political ideologies were connected through some key individuals. These critical connections networked them onto the same side for promoting communitarian thought in Thailand. When such leading advocates assumed key political positions, it was easy for them to push communitarian ideas into the guidelines and principles of state administration.

The Extended Water Footprint and illegal groundwater use in the Upper Guadiana Basin (Spain)

Tablas de Daimiel National Park is located in the Upper Guadiana Basin and represents one of the largest and most important wetlands in Europe. The long term ecological integrity of this wetland is inherently associated with the maintenance of a shallow groundwater table, namely the Western Mancha aquifer (WMA) or Aquifer 23. The intensive use of groundwater, mainly for irrigation, has led over the last decades to deep socio‐economic changes. Such intensive use has also lowered the water table of Aquifer 23, drastically reducing the flooded area of the wetland and threatening its ecological integrity. A number of plans and measures have been developed and implemented since the declaration of overexploitation of Aquifer 23 in the year 1987. The most recent one is the Special Plan for the Upper Guadiana (SPUG), approved in 2008. This Plan is the main measure to comply with achieving the objective of good quantitative and qualitative status required under the Water Framework Directive (2000). This paper offers a new type of integrated analysis which allows assessing under a common lens the physical, economic and social dimensions of groundwater use in the area. The first objective is to calculate the groundwater footprint of agricultural production in the Upper Guadiana basin and its evolution during 2000‐2008. For this purpose, we have applied the Extended Water Footprint (EWF) methodology ‐a novel approach based on the classical Water Footprint (WF) approach‐ that includes an assessment of the water productivity from an economic and social perspective. Compared to the classical WF, the EWF allows for a more complete overview of the sector, providing new insights for policy decisions (e.g. to define options and possibilities on water re‐allocation in order to achieve both better ecosystem conservation and social equity). The second objective is to use the EWF to compare the existing authorized and non‐authorized or illegal use of water. This allows us to discuss current initiatives by public authorities in relation to the existing frame of water rights

Comparisson of hydrogen applications for storage and energy vector

For the decades to come can be foreseen that electricity and water will keep be playing a key role in the countries development, both can be considered the most important energy vectors and its control can be crucial for governments, companies and leaders in general. Energy is essential for all human activities and its availability is critical to economic and social development. In particular, electricity, a form of energy, is required to produce goods, to provide medical assistance and basic civic services in education, to assure availability of clean water, to create conducive environment for prosperity and improvement, and to keep an acceptable quality of life. The way in which electricity is generated from different resources varies through the different countries. Nuclear energy controlled within reactors to steam production, gas, fuel-oil and coal fired in power stations, water, solar and wind energy among others are employed, sometimes not very efficiently, to produce electricity. The so call energy mix of an individual country is formed up by the contribution of each resource or form of energy to the electricity generation market of the so country. During the last decade the establishment of proper energy mixes for countries has gained much importance, and energy drivers should enforce long term plans and policies. Hints, reports and guides giving tracks on energy resources contribution are been developed by noticeable organisations like the IEA (International Energy Agency) or the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) and the WEC (World Energy Council). This paper evaluates energy issues the market and countries are facing today regarding energy mix scheduling and panorama. This paper revises and seeks to improve methodology available that are applicable on energy mix plan definition. Key Factors are identified, established and assessed through this paper for the common implementation, the themes driving the future energy mix methodology proposal. Those have a clear influence and are closely related to future environmental policies. Key Factors take into consideration sustainability, energy security, social and economic growth, climate change, air quality and social stability. The strength of the Key Factors application on energy system planning to different countries is contingent on country resources, location, electricity demand and electricity generation industry, technology available, economic situation and prospects, energy policy and regulation

Land cover dynamics and climate change implications on water resources in South Pacific Costa Rica

Water is fundamental to human life and the availability of freshwater is often a constraint on human welfare and economic development. Consequently, the potential effects of global changes on hydrology and water resources are considered among the most severe and vital ones. Water scarcity is one of the main problems in the rural communities of Central America, as a result of an important degradation of catchment areas and the over-exploitation of aquifers. The present Thesis is focused on two critical aspects of global changes over water resources: (1) the potential effects of climate change on water quantity and (2) the impacts of land cover and land use changes on the hydrological processes and water cycle. Costa Rica is among the few developing countries that have recently achieved a land use transition with a net increase in forest cover. Osa Region in South Pacific Costa Rica is an appealing study site to assess water supply management plans and to measure the effects of deforestation, forest transitions and climate change projections reported in the region. Rural Community Water Supply systems (ASADAS) in Osa are dealing with an increasing demand of freshwater due to the growing population and the change in the way of life in the rural livelihoods. Land cover mosaics which have resulted from the above mentioned processes are characterized by the abandonment of marginal farmland with the spread over these former grasslands of high return crops and the expansion of secondary forests due to reforestation initiatives. These land use changes have a significant impact on runoff generation in priority water-supply catchments in the humid tropics, as evidenced by the analysis of the Tinoco Experimental Catchment in the Southern Pacific area of Costa Rica. The monitoring system assesses the effects of the different land uses on the runoff responses and on the general water cycle of the basin. Runoff responses at plot scale are analyzed for secondary forests, oil palm plantations, forest plantations and grasslands. The Oil palm plantation plot presented the highest runoff coefficient (mean RC=32.6%), twice that measured under grasslands (mean RC=15.3%) and 20-fold greater than in secondary forest (mean RC=1.7%). A Thornthwaite-type water balance is proposed to assess the impact of land cover and climate change scenarios over water availability for rural communities in Osa Region. Climate change projections were obtained by the downscaling of BCM2, CNCM3 and ECHAM5 models. Precipitation and temperature were averaged and conveyed by the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC climate scenario for 2030, 2060 and 2080. Precipitation simulations exhibit a positive increase during the dry season for the three scenarios and a decrease during the rainy season, with the highest magnitude (up to 25%) by the end of the 21st century under scenario B1. Monthly mean temperature simulations increase for the three scenarios throughout the year with a maximum increase during the dry season of 5% under A1B and A2 scenarios and 4% under B1 scenario. The Thornthwaite-type Water Balance model indicates important decreases of water surplus for the three climate scenarios during the rainy season, with a maximum decrease on May, which under A1B scenario drop up to 20%, under A2 up to 40% and under B1 scenario drop up to almost 60%. Land cover scenarios were created taking into account current land cover dynamics of the region. Land cover scenario 1 projects a deforestation situation, with forests decreasing up to 15% due to urbanization of the upper catchment areas; land cover scenario 2 projects a forest recovery situation where forested areas increase due to grassland abandonment on areas with more than 30% of slope. Deforestation scenario projects an annual water surplus decrease of 15% while the reforestation scenario projects a water surplus increase of almost 25%. This water balance analysis indicates that climate scenarios are equal contributors as land cover scenarios to future water resource estimations.