Evolutionary optimisation methods with uncertainty for modern multidisciplinary design in aeronautical engineering

One of the new challenges in aeronautics is combining and accounting for multiple disciplines while considering uncertainties or variability in the design parameters or operating conditions. This paper describes a methodology for robust multidisciplinary design optimisation when there is uncertainty in the operating conditions. The methodology, which is based on canonical evolution algorithms, is enhanced by its coupling with an uncertainty analysis technique. The paper illustrates the use of this methodology on two practical test cases related to Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS). These are the ideal candidates due to the multi-physics involved and the variability of missions to be performed. Results obtained from the optimisation show that the method is effective to find useful Pareto non-dominated solutions and demonstrate the use of robust design techniques.

Trends in demographic, health behaviour factors, and self-perceived weight status : influences on obesity in Australia from 1995 to 2005

Overweight and obesity are two of the most important emerging public health issues in our time and regarded by the World Health Organisation [WHO] (1998) as a worldwide epidemic. The prevalence of obesity in the USA is the highest in the world, and Australian obesity rates fall into second place. Currently, about 60% of Australian adults are overweight (BMI „d 25kg/m2). The socio-demographic factors associated with overweight and/or obesity have been well demonstrated, but many of the existing studies only examined these relationships at one point of time, and did not examine whether significant relationships changed over time. Furthermore, only limited previous research has examined the issue of the relationship between perception of weight status and actual weight status, as well as factors that may impact on people¡¦s perception of their body weight status. Aims: The aims of the proposed research are to analyse the discrepancy between perceptions of weight status and actual weight status in Australian adults; to examine if there are trends in perceptions of weight status in adults between 1995 to 2004/5; and to propose a range of health promotion strategies and furth er research that may be useful in managing physical activity, healthy diet, and weight reduction. Hypotheses: Four alternate hypotheses are examined by the research: (1) there are associations between independent variables (e.g. socio -demographic factors, physical activity and dietary habits) and overweight and/or obesity; (2) there are associations between the same independent variables and the perception of overweight; (3) there are associations between the same independent variables and the discrepancy between weight status and perception of weight status; and (4) there are trends in overweight and/or obesity, perception of overweight, and the discrepancy in Australian adults from 1995 to 2004/5. Conceptual Framework and Methods: A conceptual framework is developed that shows the associations identified among socio -demographic factors, physical activity and dietary habits with actual weight status, as well as examining perception of weight status. The three latest National Health Survey data bases (1995 , 2001 and 2004/5) were used as the primary data sources. A total of 74,114 Australian adults aged 20 years and over were recruited from these databases. Descriptive statistics, bivariate analyses (One -Way ANOVA tests, unpaired t-tests and Pearson chi-square tests), and multinomial logistic regression modelling were used to analyse the data. Findings: This research reveals that gender, main language spoken at home, occupation status, household structure, private health insurance status, and exercise are related to the discrepancy between actual weight status and perception of weight status, but only gender and exercise are related to the discrepancy across the three time point s. The current research provides more knowledge about perception of weight status independently. Factors which affect perception of overweight are gender, age, language spoken at home, private health insurance status, and diet ary habits. The study also finds that many factors that impact overweight and/or obesity also have an effect on perception of overweight, such as age, language spoken at home, household structure, and exercise. However, some factors (i.e. private health insurance status and milk consumption) only impact on perception of overweight. Furthermore, factors that are rel ated to people’s overweight are not totally related to people’s underestimation of their body weight status in the study results. Thus, there are unknown factors which can affect people’s underestimation of their body weight status. Conclusions: Health promotion and education activities should provide education about population health education and promotion and education for particular at risk sub -groups. Further research should take the form of a longitudinal study design ed to examine the causal relationship between overweight and/or obesity and underestimation of body weight status, it should also place more attention on the relationships between overweight and/or obesity and dietary habits, with a more comprehensive representation of SES. Moreover, further research that deals with identification of characteristics about perception of weight status, in particular the underestimation of body weight status should be undertaken.

Cost effectiveness of antimicrobial catheters in the intensive care unit : Addressing uncertainty in the decision

Introduction: Some types of antimicrobial-coated central venous catheters (A-CVC) have been shown to be cost-effective in preventing catheter-related bloodstream infection (CR-BSI). However, not all types have been evaluated, and there are concerns over the quality and usefulness of these earlier studies. There is uncertainty amongst clinicians over which, if any, antimicrobial-coated central venous catheters to use. We re-evaluated the cost-effectiveness of all commercially available antimicrobialcoated central venous catheters for prevention of catheter-related bloodstream infection in adult intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Methods: We used a Markov decision model to compare the cost-effectiveness of antimicrobial-coated central venous catheters relative to uncoated catheters. Four catheter types were evaluated; minocycline and rifampicin (MR)-coated catheters; silver, platinum and carbon (SPC)-impregnated catheters; and two chlorhexidine and silver sulfadiazine-coated catheters, one coated on the external surface (CH/SSD (ext)) and the other coated on both surfaces (CH/SSD (int/ext)). The incremental cost per qualityadjusted life-year gained and the expected net monetary benefits were estimated for each. Uncertainty arising from data estimates, data quality and heterogeneity was explored in sensitivity analyses. Results: The baseline analysis, with no consideration of uncertainty, indicated all four types of antimicrobial-coated central venous catheters were cost-saving relative to uncoated catheters. Minocycline and rifampicin-coated catheters prevented 15 infections per 1,000 catheters and generated the greatest health benefits, 1.6 quality-adjusted life-years, and cost-savings, AUD $130,289. After considering uncertainty in the current evidence, the minocycline and rifampicin-coated catheters returned the highest incremental monetary net benefits of $948 per catheter; but there was a 62% probability of error in this conclusion. Although the minocycline and rifampicin-coated catheters had the highest monetary net benefits across multiple scenarios, the decision was always associated with high uncertainty. Conclusions: Current evidence suggests that the cost-effectiveness of using antimicrobial-coated central venous catheters within the ICU is highly uncertain. Policies to prevent catheter-related bloodstream infection amongst ICU patients should consider the cost-effectiveness of competing interventions in the light of this uncertainty. Decision makers would do well to consider the current gaps in knowledge and the complexity of producing good quality evidence in this area.

Complementarity and the uncertainty principle as aesthetic principles : the practice and performance of The Physics Project

Using the generative processes developed over two stages of creative development and the performance of The Physics Project at the Loft at the Creative Industries Precinct at the Queensland University of Technology (QUT) from 5th – 8th April 2006 as a case study, this exegesis considers how the principles of contemporary physics can be reframed as aesthetic principles in the creation of contemporary performance. The Physics Project is an original performance work that melds live performance, video and web-casting and overlaps an exploration of personal identity with the physics of space, time, light and complementarity. It considers the acts of translation between the language of physics and the language of contemporary performance that occur via process and form. This exegesis also examines the devices in contemporary performance making and contemporary performance that extend the reach of the performance, including the integration of the live and the mediated and the use of metanarratives.

Eco-structure data forms : classification of data analysis using perceived design affordances for musical outcomes

This paper explores a method of comparative analysis and classification of data through perceived design affordances. Included is discussion about the musical potential of data forms that are derived through eco-structural analysis of musical features inherent in audio recordings of natural sounds. A system of classification of these forms is proposed based on their structural contours. The classifications include four primitive types; steady, iterative, unstable and impulse. The classification extends previous taxonomies used to describe the gestural morphology of sound. The methods presented are used to provide compositional support for eco-structuralism.

Info-gap theory and robust design of surveillance for invasive species : the case study of Barrow Island

Surveillance for invasive non-indigenous species (NIS) is an integral part of a quarantine system. Estimating the efficiency of a surveillance strategy relies on many uncertain parameters estimated by experts, such as the efficiency of its components in face of the specific NIS, the ability of the NIS to inhabit different environments, and so on. Due to the importance of detecting an invasive NIS within a critical period of time, it is crucial that these uncertainties be accounted for in the design of the surveillance system. We formulate a detection model that takes into account, in addition to structured sampling for incursive NIS, incidental detection by untrained workers. We use info-gap theory for satisficing (not minimizing) the probability of detection, while at the same time maximizing the robustness to uncertainty. We demonstrate the trade-off between robustness to uncertainty, and an increase in the required probability of detection. An empirical example based on the detection of Pheidole megacephala on Barrow Island demonstrates the use of info-gap analysis to select a surveillance strategy.

Socio-environmental factors and suicide in Queensland, Australia

Suicide has drawn much attention from both the scientific community and the public. Examining the impact of socio-environmental factors on suicide is essential in developing suicide prevention strategies and interventions, because it will provide health authorities with important information for their decision-making. However, previous studies did not examine the impact of socio-environmental factors on suicide using a spatial analysis approach. The purpose of this study was to identify the patterns of suicide and to examine how socio-environmental factors impact on suicide over time and space at the Local Governmental Area (LGA) level in Queensland. The suicide data between 1999 and 2003 were collected from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Socio-environmental variables at the LGA level included climate (rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature), Socioeconomic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) and demographic variables (proportion of Indigenous population, unemployment rate, proportion of population with low income and low education level). Climate data were obtained from Australian Bureau of Meteorology. SEIFA and demographic variables were acquired from ABS. A series of statistical and geographical information system (GIS) approaches were applied in the analysis. This study included two stages. The first stage used average annual data to view the spatial pattern of suicide and to examine the association between socio-environmental factors and suicide over space. The second stage examined the spatiotemporal pattern of suicide and assessed the socio-environmental determinants of suicide, using more detailed seasonal data. In this research, 2,445 suicide cases were included, with 1,957 males (80.0%) and 488 females (20.0%). In the first stage, we examined the spatial pattern and the determinants of suicide using 5-year aggregated data. Spearman correlations were used to assess associations between variables. Then a Poisson regression model was applied in the multivariable analysis, as the occurrence of suicide is a small probability event and this model fitted the data quite well. Suicide mortality varied across LGAs and was associated with a range of socio-environmental factors. The multivariable analysis showed that maximum temperature was significantly and positively associated with male suicide (relative risk [RR] = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.00 to 1.07). Higher proportion of Indigenous population was accompanied with more suicide in male population (male: RR = 1.02, 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.03). There was a positive association between unemployment rate and suicide in both genders (male: RR = 1.04, 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.06; female: RR = 1.07, 95% CI: 1.00 to 1.16). No significant association was observed for rainfall, minimum temperature, SEIFA, proportion of population with low individual income and low educational attainment. In the second stage of this study, we undertook a preliminary spatiotemporal analysis of suicide using seasonal data. Firstly, we assessed the interrelations between variables. Secondly, a generalised estimating equations (GEE) model was used to examine the socio-environmental impact on suicide over time and space, as this model is well suited to analyze repeated longitudinal data (e.g., seasonal suicide mortality in a certain LGA) and it fitted the data better than other models (e.g., Poisson model). The suicide pattern varied with season and LGA. The north of Queensland had the highest suicide mortality rate in all the seasons, while there was no suicide case occurred in the southwest. Northwest had consistently higher suicide mortality in spring, autumn and winter. In other areas, suicide mortality varied between seasons. This analysis showed that maximum temperature was positively associated with suicide among male population (RR = 1.24, 95% CI: 1.04 to 1.47) and total population (RR = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.00 to 1.32). Higher proportion of Indigenous population was accompanied with more suicide among total population (RR = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.13 to 1.19) and by gender (male: RR = 1.07, 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.13; female: RR = 1.23, 95% CI: 1.03 to 1.48). Unemployment rate was positively associated with total (RR = 1.40, 95% CI: 1.24 to 1.59) and female (RR=1.09, 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.18) suicide. There was also a positive association between proportion of population with low individual income and suicide in total (RR = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.10 to 1.48) and male (RR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.23 to 1.72) population. Rainfall was only positively associated with suicide in total population (RR = 1.11, 95% CI: 1.04 to 1.19). There was no significant association for rainfall, minimum temperature, SEIFA, proportion of population with low educational attainment. The second stage is the extension of the first stage. Different spatial scales of dataset were used between the two stages (i.e., mean yearly data in the first stage, and seasonal data in the second stage), but the results are generally consistent with each other. Compared with other studies, this research explored the variety of the impact of a wide range of socio-environmental factors on suicide in different geographical units. Maximum temperature, proportion of Indigenous population, unemployment rate and proportion of population with low individual income were among the major determinants of suicide in Queensland. However, the influence from other factors (e.g. socio-culture background, alcohol and drug use) influencing suicide cannot be ignored. An in-depth understanding of these factors is vital in planning and implementing suicide prevention strategies. Five recommendations for future research are derived from this study: (1) It is vital to acquire detailed personal information on each suicide case and relevant information among the population in assessing the key socio-environmental determinants of suicide; (2) Bayesian model could be applied to compare mortality rates and their socio-environmental determinants across LGAs in future research; (3) In the LGAs with warm weather, high proportion of Indigenous population and/or unemployment rate, concerted efforts need to be made to control and prevent suicide and other mental health problems; (4) The current surveillance, forecasting and early warning system needs to be strengthened, to trace the climate and socioeconomic change over time and space and its impact on population health; (5) It is necessary to evaluate and improve the facilities of mental health care, psychological consultation, suicide prevention and control programs; especially in the areas with low socio-economic status, high unemployment rate, extreme weather events and natural disasters.

The call of the road : factors predicting students' car travelling intentions and behaviour

The most common daily trip for employed persons and students is the commute to and from work and/or place of study. Though there are clear environmental, health and safety benefits from using public transport instead of private vehicles for these trips, a high proportion of commuters still choose private vehicles to get to work or study. This study reports an investigation of psychological factors influencing students’ travel choices from the perspective of the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB). Students from 3 different university campuses (n= 186) completed a cross-sectional survey on their car commuting behaviour. Particular focus was given to whether car commuting habits could add to understanding of commuting behaviour over and above behavioural intentions. Results indicated that, as expected, behavioural intention to travel by car was the strongest TPB predictor of car commuting behaviour. Further, general car commuting habits explained additional variance over and above TPB constructs, though the contribution was modest. No relationship between habit and intentions was found. Overall results suggest that, although student car commuting behaviour is habitual in nature, it is predominantly guided by reasoned action. Implications of these findings are that in order to alter the use of private vehicles, the factors influencing commuters’ intentions to travel by car must be addressed. Specifically, interventions should target the perceived high levels of both the acceptability of commuting by car and the perceived control over the choice to commute by car.