Determining the response of African biota to climate change: using the past to model the future

Prediction of biotic responses to future climate change in tropical Africa tends to be based on two modelling approaches: bioclimatic species envelope models and dynamic vegetation models. Another complementary but underused approach is to examine biotic responses to similar climatic changes in the past as evidenced in fossil and historical records. This paper reviews these records and highlights the information that they provide in terms of understanding the local- and regional-scale responses of African vegetation to future climate change. A key point that emerges is that a move to warmer and wetter conditions in the past resulted in a large increase in biomass and a range distribution of woody plants up to 400–500 km north of its present location, the so-called greening of the Sahara. By contrast, a transition to warmer and drier conditions resulted in a reduction in woody vegetation in many regions and an increase in grass/savanna-dominated landscapes. The rapid rate of climate warming coming into the current interglacial resulted in a dramatic increase in community turnover, but there is little evidence for widespread extinctions. However, huge variation in biotic response in both space and time is apparent with, in some cases, totally different responses to the same climatic driver. This highlights the importance of local features such as soils, topography and also internal biotic factors in determining responses and resilience of the African biota to climate change, information that is difficult to obtain from modelling but is abundant in palaeoecological records.

Dietary Carbohydrate Intake, Glycemic Index, and Glycemic Load and Endometrial Cancer Risk: A Prospective Cohort Study

Endometrial cancer risk has been directly associated with glycemic load. However, few studies have investigated this link, and the etiological role of specific dietary carbohydrate components remains unclear. Our aim was to investigate associations of carbohydrate intake, glycemic index, and glycemic load with endometrial cancer risk in the US Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. Recruitment took place in 1993-2001. Over a median of 9.0 years of follow-up through 2009, 386 women developed endometrial cancer among 36,115 considered in the analysis. Dietary intakes were assessed using a 124-item diet history questionnaire. Cox proportional hazards models were applied to calculate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Significant inverse associations were detected between endometrial cancer risk and total available carbohydrate intake (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.66, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.49, 0.90), total sugars intake (HR = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.52, 0.96), and glycemic load (HR = 0.63, 95% CI: 0.46, 0.84) when women in the highest quartile of intake were compared with those in the lowest. These inverse associations were strongest among overweight and obese women. No associations with endometrial cancer risk were observed for glycemic index or dietary fiber. Our findings contrast with previous evidence and suggest that high carbohydrate intakes and glycemic loads are protective against endometrial cancer development. Further clarification of these associations is warranted.

Genetic Markers Enhance Coronary Risk Prediction in Men: The MORGAM Prospective Cohorts

Background: More accurate coronary heart disease (CHD) prediction, specifically in middle-aged men, is needed to reduce the burden of disease more effectively. We hypothesised that a multilocus genetic risk score could refine CHD prediction beyond classic risk scores and obtain more precise risk estimates using a prospective cohort design.

Methods: Using data from nine prospective European cohorts, including 26,221 men, we selected in a case-cohort setting 4,818 healthy men at baseline, and used Cox proportional hazards models to examine associations between CHD and risk scores based on genetic variants representing 13 genomic regions. Over follow-up (range: 5-18 years), 1,736 incident CHD events occurred. Genetic risk scores were validated in men with at least 10 years of follow-up (632 cases, 1361 non-cases). Genetic risk score 1 (GRS1) combined 11 SNPs and two haplotypes, with effect estimates from previous genome-wide association studies. GRS2 combined 11 SNPs plus 4 SNPs from the haplotypes with coefficients estimated from these prospective cohorts using 10-fold cross-validation. Scores were added to a model adjusted for classic risk factors comprising the Framingham risk score and 10-year risks were derived.

Results: Both scores improved net reclassification (NRI) over the Framingham score (7.5%, p = 0.017 for GRS1, 6.5%, p = 0.044 for GRS2) but GRS2 also improved discrimination (c-index improvement 1.11%, p = 0.048). Subgroup analysis on men aged 50-59 (436 cases, 603 non-cases) improved net reclassification for GRS1 (13.8%) and GRS2 (12.5%). Net reclassification improvement remained significant for both scores when family history of CHD was added to the baseline model for this male subgroup improving prediction of early onset CHD events.

Conclusions: Genetic risk scores add precision to risk estimates for CHD and improve prediction beyond classic risk factors, particularly for middle aged men.

Scalable black-box prediction models for multi-dimensional adaptation on NUMA multi-cores

This paper presents a scalable, statistical ‘black-box’ model for predicting the performance of parallel programs on multi-core non-uniform memory access (NUMA) systems. We derive a model with low overhead, by reducing data collection and model training time. The model can accurately predict the behaviour of parallel applications in response to changes in their concurrency, thread layout on NUMA nodes, and core voltage and frequency. We present a framework that applies the model to achieve significant energy and energy-delay-square (ED2) savings (9% and 25%, respectively) along with performance improvement (10% mean) on an actual 16-core NUMA system running realistic application workloads. Our prediction model proves substantially more accurate than previous efforts.

Lung Clearance Index Is a Repeatable and Sensitive Indicator of Radiological Changes in Bronchiectasis

RATIONALE: In bronchiectasis there is a need for improved markers of lung function to determine disease severity and response to therapy.

OBJECTIVES: To assess whether the lung clearance index is a repeatable and more sensitive indicator of computed tomography (CT) scan abnormalities than spirometry in bronchiectasis.

METHODS: Thirty patients with stable bronchiectasis were recruited and lung clearance index, spirometry, and health-related quality of life measures were assessed on two occasions, 2 weeks apart when stable (study 1). A separate group of 60 patients with stable bronchiectasis was studied on a single visit with the same measurements and a CT scan (study 2).

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: In study 1, the intervisit intraclass correlation coefficient for the lung clearance index was 0.94 (95% confidence interval, 0.89 to 0.97; P < 0.001). In study 2, the mean age was 62 (10) years, FEV1 76.5% predicted (18.9), lung clearance index 9.1 (2.0), and total CT score 14.1 (10.2)%. The lung clearance index was abnormal in 53 of 60 patients (88%) and FEV1 was abnormal in 37 of 60 patients (62%). FEV1 negatively correlated with the lung clearance index (r = -0.51, P < 0.0001). Across CT scores, there was a relationship with the lung clearance index, with little evidence of an effect of FEV1. There were no significant associations between the lung clearance index or FEV1 and health-related quality of life.

CONCLUSIONS: The lung clearance index is repeatable and a more sensitive measure than FEV1 in the detection of abnormalities demonstrated on CT scan. The lung clearance index has the potential to be a useful clinical and research tool in patients with bronchiectasis.

A randomised, phase II trial of the DNA-hypomethylating agent 5-aza-2'-deoxycytidine (decitabine) in combination with carboplatin vs carboplatin alone in patients with recurrent, partially platinum-sensitive ovarian cancer.

Background: Our previous laboratory and clinical data suggested that one mechanism underlying the development of platinum resistance in ovarian cancer is the acquisition of DNA methylation. We therefore tested the hypothesis that the DNA hypomethylating agent 5-aza-2'-deoxycytodine (decitabine) can reverse resistance to carboplatin in women with relapsed ovarian cancer.

Methods: Patients progressing 6-12 months after previous platinum therapy were randomised to decitabine on day 1 and carboplatin (AUC 6) on day 8, every 28 days or carboplatin alone. The primary objective was response rate in patients with methylated hMLH1 tumour DNA in plasma.

Results: After a pre-defined interim analysis, the study closed due to lack of efficacy and poor treatment deliverability in 15 patients treated with the combination. Responses by GCIG criteria were 9 out of 14 vs 3 out of 15 and by RECIST were 6 out of 13 vs 1 out of 12 for carboplatin and carboplatin/decitabine, respectively. Grade 3/4 neutropenia was more common with the combination (60% vs 15.4%) as was G2/3 carboplatin hypersensitivity (47% vs 21%).

Conclusions: With this schedule, the addition of decitabine appears to reduce rather than increase the efficacy of carboplatin in partially platinum-sensitive ovarian cancer and is difficult to deliver. Patient-selection strategies, different schedules and other demethylating agents should be considered in future combination studies.

Predicting invasive species impacts: a community module functional response approach reveals context dependencies

Summary
-Predatory functional responses play integral roles in predator–prey dynamics, and their assessment promises greater understanding and prediction of the predatory impacts of invasive species.
-Other interspecific interactions, however, such as parasitism and higher-order predation, have the potential to modify predator–prey interactions and thus the predictive capability of the comparative functional response approach.
-We used a four-species community module (higher-order predator; focal native or invasive predators; parasites of focal predators; native prey) to compare the predatory functional responses of native Gammarus duebeni celticus and invasive Gammarus pulex amphipods towards three invertebrate prey species (Asellus aquaticus, Simulium spp., Baetis rhodani), thus, quantifying the context dependencies of parasitism and a higher-order fish predator on these functional responses.
-Our functional response experiments demonstrated that the invasive amphipod had a higher predatory impact (lower handling time) on two of three prey species, which reflects patterns of impact observed in the field. The community module also revealed that parasitism had context-dependent influences, for one prey species, with the potential to further reduce the predatory impact of the invasive amphipod or increase the predatory impact of the native amphipod in the presence of a higher-order fish predator.
-Partial consumption of prey was similar for both predators and occurred increasingly in the order A. aquaticus, Simulium spp. and B. rhodani. This was associated with increasing prey densities, but showed no context dependencies with parasitism or higher-order fish predator.
-This study supports the applicability of comparative functional responses as a tool to predict and assess invasive species impacts incorporating multiple context dependencies.

Hierarchical demand response using dantzig-wolfe decomposition

Demand Side Management (DSM) programmes are designed to shift electrical loads from peak times. Demand Response (DR) algorithms automate this process for controllable loads. DR can be implemented explicitly in terms of Peak to Average Ratio Reduction (PARR), in which case the maximum peak load is minimised over a prediction horizon by manipulating the amount of energy given to controllable loads at different times. A hierarchical predictive PARR algorithm is presented here based on Dantzig-Wolfe decomposition. © 2013 IEEE.

Analysis of wntless (WLS) expression in gastric, ovarian, and breast cancers reveals a strong association with HER2 overexpression

The oncogenic role of WNT is well characterized. Wntless (WLS) (also known as GPR177, or Evi), a key modulator of WNT protein secretion, was recently found to be highly overexpressed in malignant astrocytomas. We hypothesized that this molecule may be aberrantly expressed in other cancers known to possess aberrant WNT signaling such as ovarian, gastric, and breast cancers. Immunohistochemical analysis using a TMA platform revealed WLS overexpression in a subset of ovarian, gastric, and breast tumors; this overexpression was associated with poorer clinical outcomes in gastric cancer (P=0.025). In addition, a strong correlation was observed between WLS expression and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) overexpression. Indeed, 100% of HER2-positive intestinal gastric carcinomas, 100% of HER2-positive serous ovarian carcinomas, and 64% of HER2-positive breast carcinomas coexpressed WLS protein. Although HER2 protein expression or gene amplification is an established predictive biomarker for trastuzumab response in breast and gastric cancers, a significant proportion of HER2-positive tumors display resistance to trastuzumab, which may be in part explainable by a possible mechanistic link between WLS and HER2.

Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), HER2 and insulin-like growth factor-1 receptor (IGF-1R) status in ovarian adult granulosa cell tumours

AIMS: Adult granulosa cell tumours (AGCTs) are uncommon ovarian sex cord-stromal tumours which recur following surgical removal in up to 50% of patients. Treatment options for recurrent and advanced stage AGCTs are limited, with poor response to chemotherapy and radiotherapy. We aimed to assess epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), HER2 and insulin-like growth factor-1 receptor (IGF-1R) status in AGCTs with a view to investigating whether or not these receptors might be potential therapeutic targets in these neoplasms.

METHODS AND RESULTS: Immunohistochemical staining for EGFR, HER2 and IGF-1R was undertaken in 31 AGCTs. Tumour DNA was also analysed for mutations in the tyrosine kinase domain of EGFR (exons 18-21) by Cobas mutation RT-PCR. Twenty-three of 31 (74%) AGCTs showed some degree of EGFR expression, generally with cytoplasmic or mixed membranous and cytoplasmic staining of variable intensity. Eleven of 27 (41%) cases exhibited strong membranous and cytoplasmic expression of IGF-1R. HER2 expression was not seen. No mutations were found in exons 18-21 of the EGFR gene in hot-spots of therapeutic relevance.

CONCLUSIONS: This study raises the possibility that anti-EGFR and/or anti-IGF-1R therapies may be of potential benefit in ovarian AGCTs, and this requires further study. Lack of known mutations within the tyrosine kinase domain of EGFR suggests that EGFR-related tyrosine kinase inhibitors may not be useful therapeutically.

Spindle assembly checkpoint protein expression correlates with cellular proliferation and shorter time to recurrence in ovarian cancer.

Ovarian carcinoma (OC) is the most lethal of the gynecological malignancies, often presenting at an advanced stage. Treatment is hampered by high levels of drug resistance. The taxanes are microtubule stabilizing agents, used as first-line agents in the treatment of OC that exert their apoptotic effects through the spindle assembly checkpoint. BUB1-related protein kinase (BUBR1) and mitotic arrest deficient 2 (MAD2), essential spindle assembly checkpoint components, play a key role in response to taxanes. BUBR1, MAD2, and Ki-67 were assessed on an OC tissue microarray platform representing 72 OC tumors of varying histologic subtypes. Sixty-one of these patients received paclitaxel and platinum agents combined; 11 received platinum alone. Overall survival was available for all 72 patients, whereas recurrence-free survival (RFS) was available for 66 patients. Increased BUBR1 expression was seen in serous carcinomas, compared with other histologies (P = .03). Increased BUBR1 was significantly associated with tumors of advanced stage (P = .05). Increased MAD2 and BUBR1 expression also correlated with increased cellular proliferation (P < .0002 and P = .02, respectively). Reduced MAD2 nuclear intensity was associated with a shorter RFS (P = .03), in ovarian tumors of differing histologic subtype (n = 66). In this subgroup, for those women who received paclitaxel and platinum agents combined (n = 57), reduced MAD2 intensity also identified women with a shorter RFS (P < .007). For the entire cohort of patients, irrespective of histologic subtype or treatment, MAD2 nuclear intensity retained independent significance in a multivariate model, with tumors showing reduced nuclear MAD2 intensity identifying patients with a poorer RFS (P = .05).

Overexpression of the microRNA miR-433 promotes resistance to paclitaxel through the induction of cellular senescence in ovarian cancer cells

Annually, ovarian cancer (OC) affects 240,000 women worldwide and is the most lethal gynecological malignancy. High-grade serous OC (HGSOC) is the most common and aggressive OC subtype, characterized by widespread genome changes and chromosomal instability and is consequently poorly responsive to chemotherapy treatment. The objective of this study was to investigate the role of the microRNA miR-433 in the cellular response of OC cells to paclitaxel treatment. We show that stable miR-433 expression in A2780 OC cells results in the induction of cellular senescence demonstrated by morphological changes, downregulation of phosphorylated retinoblastoma (p-Rb), and an increase in β-galactosidase activity. Furthermore, in silico analysis identified four possible miR-433 target genes associated with cellular senescence: cyclin-dependent kinase 6 (CDK6), MAPK14, E2F3, and CDKN2A. Mechanistically, we demonstrate that downregulation of p-Rb is attributable to a miR-433-dependent downregulation of CDK6, establishing it as a novel miR-433 associated gene. Interestingly, we show that high miR-433 expressing cells release miR-433 into the growth media via exosomes which in turn can induce a senescence bystander effect. Furthermore, in relation to a chemotherapeutic response, quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) analysis revealed that only PEO1 and PEO4 OC cells with the highest miR-433 expression survive paclitaxel treatment. Our data highlight how the aberrant expression of miR-433 can adversely affect intracellular signaling to mediate chemoresistance in OC cells by driving cellular senescence.

miR-433 overexpression attenuates the spindle assembly checkpoint response to paclitaxel

Paclitaxel is a microtubule inhibitory chemotherapeutic drug that is increasingly used for the treatment of solid tumours. In vitro studies have demonstrated that attenuating the spindle assemble checkpoint (SAC) alters the post-mitotic responses to paclitaxel. Furthermore, the aberrant expression of a number of the SAC proteins, MAD2, BUBR1, and Aurora A kinase, are associated with poor patient prognosis. We have identified a microRNA, miR-433, that regulates the expression of MAD2. Overexpression of miR-433 in Hela cells induced downregulation of MAD2 mRNA and protein expression. We have also shown that Hela cells overexpressing miR-433 and treated with paclitaxel are no longer capable of cyclin B stabilisation, and thus have lost the ability to activate the SAC in response to paclitaxel. In addition, cell viability assays showed that Hela cells overexpressing miR-433 and treated with paclitaxel have an attenuated response to paclitaxel compared with microRNA scrambled controls. We have characterised the levels of miR-433, MAD2 gene expression and MAD2 protein levels in a cohort of ovarian cancer cell lines. Cell viability assays on this cohort revealed that responsiveness to paclitaxel is associated with high MAD2 protein expression and lower miR-433 expression. We hypothesise that the expression of miR-433 when deregulated in cancer leads to altered MAD2 expression and a compromised SAC, a key feature underlying drug resistance to paclitaxel. In a pilot study of paired human breast tumour and normal breast tissue samples we have shown that expression levels of miR-433 are elevated in cancer tissue. Targeting this microRNA in cancer may improve the efficacy of paclitaxel in treating breast cancer and ovarian cancer.

MiR-433 induces cellular senescence rendering ovarian cancer cells less likely to undergo chemotherapy-induced apoptosis

Annually, ovarian cancer (OC) affects 240,000 women worldwide and is the most lethal gynaecological malignancy. Such mortality is predominantly associated with the development of an intrinsic and acquired resistance to chemotherapy, the lack of targeted therapies and the lack of biomarkers predicting therapeutic response.

Our clinical data demonstrates that increased miR-433 expression in primary high grade serous OC (HGSOCs) is significantly associated with poor PFS (n=46, p=0.024). Interestingly, the IHC analysis of two miR-433 targets: MAD2 [Furlong et al., 2012 PMID:22069160] and HDAC6 shows that low IHC levels of both proteins is also significantly associated with worse outcome (p=0.002 and 0.002 respectively; n=43). Additionally, the analysis of miR 433 in the publicly available TCGA dataset corroborates that high miR-433 is significantly correlated with worse OS for patients presenting with OC (n=558 and p=0.027). In vitro, in a panel of OC cell lines, higher miR-433 and lower MAD2 and HDAC6 levels were associated with resistance to paclitaxel.

To further investigate the role of miR-433 in the cellular response to chemotherapy, we generated an OC cell line stably expressing miR-433, or miR-control. MTT viability assays and Western Blot analyses established that miR-433 cells were more resistant to paclitaxel treatment (50nM) compared to miR-controls. Importantly, we have shown for the first time that miR 433 induced senescence, exemplified by a flattened morphology and down-regulation of phosphorylated Retinoblastoma (p-Rb), a molecular marker of senescence. Surprisingly, miR 433 induced senescence was independent from two well recognised senescent drivers: namely p53/p21 and p16. To explore this further we performed an in silico analysis of seven microRNA platforms which indicated that miR 433 potentially targets Cyclin-dependent kinase CDK6, which promotes sustained phosphorylation of Rb and thus cell cycle progression. In vitro, the overexpression of pre-miR-433 resulted in diminished CDK6 expression demonstrating a novel interaction between miR-433 and CDK6.

In conclusion, this study demonstrates that high miR-433 expression predicts poor outcome in OC patients by putatively rendering OC cells resistant to paclitaxel treatment through the induction of cellular senescence identifying this microRNA as a potential marker of chemoresponse.

Stabilisation of MAD2 expression through inhibition of miR-433; A novel mechanism for restoring chemo-responsiveness in ovarian tumours

Epithelial ovarian carcinoma (EOC) is characterised by late diagnosis and recurrences, both of which contribute to the high morbidity and mortality of this cancer. Unfortunately, EOC has an innate susceptibility to become chemo-resistant. Specifically, up to 30% of patients may not respond to current standard chemotherapy (paclitaxel and platinum in combination) and of those who have an initial response, some patients relapse within a few months. Therefore, in order to improve patient outcome it is crucial to establish what factors influence a patients' individualised response to chemotherapy. We analysed MAD2 protein expression in a patient cohort of 35 ovarian tumours and a panel of 5 ovarian cancer cell lines. We have demonstrated that low nuclear MAD2 expression intensity was significantly associated with chemo-resistant ovarian tumours (p=0.0136). Moreover, in vitro studies of the 5 ovarian cancer cell lines revealed that reduced MAD2 expression was associated with paclitaxel resistance. In silico analysis identified a putative miR-433 binding domain in the MAD2 3′UTR and expression profiling of miR-433 in the ovarian cancer cell lines showed that low MAD2 protein expression was associated with high miR-433 levels. In vitro over-expression of miR-433 attenuated MAD2 protein expression with a concomitant increase in cellular resistance to paclitaxel. Over-expression of a morpholino oligonucleotide that blocks miR-433 binding to MAD2 3′UTR stabilised MAD2 protein expression and protects from miR-433 induced degradation. Furthermore, miR-433 expression analysis in 35 ovarian tumour samples revealed that high miR-433 expression was associated with advanced stage presentations (p=0.0236). In conclusion, ovarian tumours that display low nuclear MAD2 intensity are chemo-resistant and stabilising MAD2 expression by antagonising miR-433 activity is a potential mechanism for restoring chemo-responsiveness in these tumours.