Long Term Dynamics in CO2 Allowance Prices and Carbon Capture Investments

In this paper we analyse the behaviour of the EU market for CO2 emission allowances; specifically, we focus on the contracts maturing in the Kyoto Protocol's second period of application (2008 to 2012). We calibrate the underlying parameters for the allowance price in the long run and we also calibrate those from the Spanish wholesale electricity market. This information is then used to assess the option to install a carbon capture and storage (CCS) unit in a coal-fired power plant. We use a two-dimensional binomial lattice where costs and profits are valued and the optimal investment time is determined. In other words, we study the trigger allowance prices above which it is optimal to install the capture unit immediately. We further analyse the impact of several variables on the critical prices, among them allowance price volatility and a hypothetical government subsidy. We conclude that, at current permit prices, from a financial point of view, immediate installation does not seem justified. This need not be the case, though, if carbon market parameters change dramatically and/or a specific policy to promote these units is adopted.

Monte Carlo Valuation of natural gas investments

This paper deals with the valuation of energy assets related to natural gas. In particular, we evaluate a baseload Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) power plant and an ancillary instalation, namely a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facility, in a realistic setting; specifically, these investments enjoy a long useful life but require some non-negligible time to build. Then we focus on the valuation of several investment options again in a realistic setting. These include the option to invest in the power plant when there is uncertainty concerning the initial outlay, or the option's time to maturity, or the cost of CO2 emission permits, or when there is a chance to double the plant size in the future. Our model comprises three sources of risk. We consider uncertain gas prices with regard to both the current level and the long-run equilibrium level; the current electricity price is also uncertain. They all are assumed to show mean reversion. The two-factor model for natural gas price is calibrated using data from NYMEX NG futures contracts. Also, we calibrate the one-factor model for electricity price using data from the Spanish wholesale electricity market, respectively. Then we use the estimated parameter values alongside actual physical parameters from a case study to value natural gas plants. Finally, the calibrated parameters are also used in a Monte Carlo simulation framework to evaluate several American-type options to invest in these energy assets. We accomplish this by following the least squares MC approach.

Influence of shelf-break fronts on shellfish and fish stocks off Argentina [Contribution to ICES Annual Science Conference, Reykjavik, Iceland, 27 Sep- 04 Oct 1996]

The general circulation pattern in the western boundary of the SW Atlantic is dominated by the opposite flows of Malvinas (-Falkland)and Brazil Current. In the Confluence region both currents separate from the continental slope and flow offshore creating an area of strong contracts and complex dynamics. The shelf-break fronts off Argentina mark the transition between shelf waters of mixed origin and nutrient rich Malvinas waters. Two areas deserve special attention due to the steep gradients introduced by the outflow of important sources of continental waters: the Rio de la Plata and the Magellan Strait to the north and south of the study area. Characteristics of the front is the high primary and secondary production, and the presence of important invertebrate and fish stocks that concentrate along the front to feed or spawn. The area comprises nearly 30 o/o (333 million U$S in 1995)of all Argentine catches of fish and squid. Resources in the area, beyond the EEZ limits, support international fisheries mainly of Russia, Poland and Spain. (Document contains 15 pages & figs)

Proposal for improving fishing opportunities off Pt. Loma by construction of an artificial reef

(Document pdf contains 42 pages)

Determination of direction of littoral transport along the north shore of Santa Rosa Island, Florida

The purpose of this study was to determine the actual direction of littoral transport along the north shore of Santa Rosa Island in the vicinity of Pensacola Beach, Florida. To accomplish this objective the sand tracer method was used for the study. Visual observations and instrument recordings of the environment factors were also made during the tracing operations. The investigation covered a time span from September 14, 1976 to March 12, 1977. (PDF contains 68 pages.)