A framework for electricity price spike analysis with advanced data mining methods

There are many techniques for electricity market price forecasting. However, most of them are designed for expected price analysis rather than price spike forecasting. An effective method of predicting the occurrence of spikes has not yet been observed in the literature so far. In this paper, a data mining based approach is presented to give a reliable forecast of the occurrence of price spikes. Combined with the spike value prediction techniques developed by the same authors, the proposed approach aims at providing a comprehensive tool for price spike forecasting. In this paper, feature selection techniques are firstly described to identify the attributes relevant to the occurrence of spikes. A simple introduction to the classification techniques is given for completeness. Two algorithms: support vector machine and probability classifier are chosen to be the spike occurrence predictors and are discussed in details. Realistic market data are used to test the proposed model with promising results.

Chronic ethanol exposure and withdrawal influence NMDA receptor subunit and splice variant mRNA expression in the rat cerebral cortex

Chronic ethanol exposure and subsequent withdrawal are known to change NMDA receptor activity. This study examined the effects of chronic ethanol administration and withdrawal on the expression of several NMDA receptor subunit and splice variant mRNAs in the rat cerebral cortex. Ethanol dependence was induced by ethanol vapour exposure. To delineate between seizure-induced changes in expression during withdrawal and those due to withdrawal per se, another group of naive rats was treated with pentylenetetrazol (PTZ) injection (30 mg/kg, i.p.). RNA samples from the cortices of chronically treated and withdrawing animals were compared to those from pairfed controls. Changes in NMDA receptor mRNA expression were determined using ribonuclease protection assays targetting the NR2A, -2B, -2C and NR1-pan subunits as well as the three alternatively spliced NR1 inserts (NR1-pan describes all the known NR1 splice variants generated from the 5' insert and the two 3' inserts). The ratio of NR1 mRNA incorporating the 5' insert vs, that lacking it was decreased during ethanol exposure and up to 48 h after withdrawal. NR2B mRNA expression was elevated during exposure, but returned to control levels 18 h after withdrawal. Levels of NR2A, NR2C, NR1-pan and both 3' NR1 insert mRNAs from the ethanol-treated groups did not alter compared with the pair-fed control group. No changes in the level of any NMDA receptor subunit mRNA was detected in the PTZ-treated animals. These data support the hypothesis that changes in NMDA receptor subunit composition may underlie a neuronal adaptation to the chronic ethanol-inhibition and may therefore be important in the precipitation of withdrawal hyperactivity. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Incomplete, asymmetric, and route-dependent cross-tolerance between oxycodone and morphine in the Dark Agouti rat

Our previous studies indicate that oxycodone is a putative kappa-opioid agonist, whereas morphine is a well documented mu-opioid agonist. Because there is limited information regarding the development of tolerance to oxycodone, this study was designed to 1) document the development of tolerance to the antinociceptive effects of chronically infused i.v. oxycodone relative to that for i.v. morphine and 2) quantify the degree of antinociceptive cross-tolerance between morphine and oxycodone in adult male Dark Agouti (DA) rats. Antinociceptive testing was performed using the tail-flick latency test. Complete antinociceptive tolerance was achieved in 48 to 84 h after chronic infusion of equi-antinociceptive doses of i.v. oxycodone (2.5 mg/24 h and 5 mg/24 h) and i.v. morphine (10 mg/24 h and 20 mg/24 h, respectively). Dose-response curves for bolus doses of i.v. and i.c.v. morphine and oxycodone were produced in naive, morphine-tolerant, and oxycodone-tolerant rats. Consistent with our previous findings that oxycodone and morphine produce their intrinsic antinociceptive effects through distinctly different opioid receptor populations, there was no discernible cross-tolerance when i.c.v. oxycodone was given to morphine-tolerant rats. Similarly, only a low degree of cross-tolerance (approximate to 24%) was observed after i.v. oxycodone administration to morphine-tolerant rats. By contrast, both i.v. and i.c.v. morphine showed a high degree of cross-tolerance (approximate to 71% and approximate to 54%, respectively) in rats rendered tolerant to oxycodone. Taken together, these findings suggest that, after parenteral but not supraspinal administration, oxycodone is metabolized to a mu-opioid agonist metabolite, thereby explaining asymmetric and incomplete cross-tolerance between oxycodone and morphine.

A landscape-scale test of the predictive ability of a spatially explicit model for population viability analysis

1. Although population viability analysis (PVA) is widely employed, forecasts from PVA models are rarely tested. This study in a fragmented forest in southern Australia contrasted field data on patch occupancy and abundance for the arboreal marsupial greater glider Petauroides volans with predictions from a generic spatially explicit PVA model. This work represents one of the first landscape-scale tests of its type. 2. Initially we contrasted field data from a set of eucalypt forest patches totalling 437 ha with a naive null model in which forecasts of patch occupancy were made, assuming no fragmentation effects and based simply on remnant area and measured densities derived from nearby unfragmented forest. The naive null model predicted an average total of approximately 170 greater gliders, considerably greater than the true count (n = 81). 3. Congruence was examined between field data and predictions from PVA under several metapopulation modelling scenarios. The metapopulation models performed better than the naive null model. Logistic regression showed highly significant positive relationships between predicted and actual patch occupancy for the four scenarios (P = 0.001-0.006). When the model-derived probability of patch occupancy was high (0.50-0.75, 0.75-1.00), there was greater congruence between actual patch occupancy and the predicted probability of occupancy. 4. For many patches, probability distribution functions indicated that model predictions for animal abundance in a given patch were not outside those expected by chance. However, for some patches the model either substantially over-predicted or under-predicted actual abundance. Some important processes, such as inter-patch dispersal, that influence the distribution and abundance of the greater glider may not have been adequately modelled. 5. Additional landscape-scale tests of PVA models, on a wider range of species, are required to assess further predictions made using these tools. This will help determine those taxa for which predictions are and are not accurate and give insights for improving models for applied conservation management.

Cytokines in the oral mucosa of mice infected with Candida albicans

Oropharyngeal candidiasis is associated with defects in cell-mediated immunity, and is commonly seen in immunocompromised patients. We have previously shown that T-cell-deficient BALB/c nude (nu/nu) mice are extremely susceptible to oropharyngeal candidiasis, and that recovery from a chronic infection is dependent on CD4 T lymphocytes. In this study we describe the local tissue cytokine profile in lymphocyte-reconstituted immunodeficient mice and their euthymic counterparts. Mice were infected orally with 10(8) cells of the yeast Candida albicans , and oral tissues sampled on days 0, 4, 8, and 14. Nude mice were reconstituted with 3 x 10(7) naive lymphocytes following oral inoculation. Interleukin (IL)-6, interferon (IFN)-gamma and tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha were identified in the oral tissues of infected euthymic mice recovering from oral infection, as well as naive controls. TNF-alpha was identified in nude oral tissue on days 4 and 8, but only after lymphocyte reconstitution. No IL-2, IL-4 or IL-10 was detected in either euthymic or athymic mice at any time-point throughout the experiment. This study confirms the functional activity of T lymphocytes in reconstituted nude mice, and suggests that TNF-alpha may be an important mediator in the recovery from oropharyngeal candidiasis.

THE ANTERIOR CINGULATE CORTEX IS A TARGET STRUCTURE FOR THE ANXIOLYTIC-LIKE EFFECTS OF BENZODIAZEPINES ASSESSED BY REPEATED EXPOSURE TO THE ELEVATED PLUS MAZE AND FOS IMMUNOREACTIVITY

Prior experience with the elevated plus maze (EPM) increases the avoidance of rodents to the open arms and impairs the anxiolytic-like effects of benzodiazepines on the traditional behaviors evaluated upon re-exposure to the maze, a phenomenon known as one-trial tolerance. Risk assessment behaviors are also sensitive to benzodiazepines. During re-exposure to the maze, these behaviors reinstate the information-processing initiated during the first experience, and the detection of danger generates stronger open-arm avoidance. The present study investigated whether the benzodiazepine midazolam alters risk assessment behaviors and Fos protein distribution associated with test and retest sessions in the EPM. Naive or maze-experienced Wistar rats received either saline or midazolam (0.5 mg/kg i.p.) and were subjected to the EPM. Midazolam caused the usual effects on exploratory behavior, increasing exploratory activity of naive rats in the open arms and producing no effects on these conventional measures in rats re-exposed to the maze. Risk assessment behaviors, however, were sensitive to the benzodiazepine during both sessions, indicating anxiolytic-like effects of the drug in both conditions. Fos immunohistochemistry showed that midazolam injections were associated with a distinct pattern of action when administered before the test or retest session, and the anterior cingulate cortex, area 1 (Cg1), was the only structure targeted by the benzodiazepine in both situations. Bilateral infusions of midazolam into the Cg1 replicated the behavioral effects of the drug injected systemically, suggesting that this area is critically involved in the anxiolytic-like effects of benzodiazepines, although the behavioral strategy adopted by the animals appears to depend on the previous knowledge of the threatening environment. (C) 2009 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Regulation of conditioned and unconditioned fear in rats by 5-HT1A receptors in the dorsal periaqueductal gray

Studies on the involvement of 5-HT1-mediated mechanisms in the dorsal periaqueductal gray (dPAG) of animals with past stressful experiences have not been conducted so far. We investigated the role of 5-HT1 receptors in the dPAG of rats previously submitted to contextual fear conditioning. Defensive behaviors induced by activation of the dPAG were assessed by measuring the lowest electric current applied to this structure (threshold) able to produce freezing and escape responses during testing sessions of contextual fear conditioning, in which animals were placed in a context previously paired to footshocks. The 5-HT1A function of the dPAG was evaluated by local injections of 8-OH-DPAT (4 and 8 nmol/0.2 mu L) and WAY-100635 (10 nmol/0.2 mu L), selective agonist and antagonist of 5-HT1A receptors, respectively. In accordance with previous studies, 8-OH-DPAT increased aversive thresholds (antiaversive effects) but injections of WAY 100635 into the dPAG did not produce significant effects on the aversive thresholds in naive rats. However, the aversive thresholds of animals exhibiting contextual fear remained unchanged with both treatments. Moreover, 8-OH-DPAT and WAY 100635 did not change the dPAG post-stimulation freezing. The present results suggest that the stressful experience of being fear conditioned has an effect on the role of the 5-HT1A receptors in mediating unconditioned fear. Also, the reduction in the regulation of the defensive behaviors by 5-HT1A-mediated mechanisms in the dPAG of these animals may underlie the stress precipitated psychopathology associated with the neural substrates of aversion of the dPAG. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Experience-induced preference for oviposition repellents derived from a non-host plant by a specialist herbivore

Foraging adults of phytophagous insects are attracted by host-plant volatiles and supposedly repelled by volatiles from non-host plants. In behavioural control of pest insects, chemicals derived from non-host plants applied to crops are expected to repel searching adults and thereby reduce egg laying. How experience by searching adults of non-host volatiles affects their subsequent searching and oviposition behaviour has been rarely tested. In laboratory experiments, we examined the effect of experience of a non-host-plant extract on the oviposition behaviour of the diamondback moth (DBM), Plutella xylostella, a specialist herbivore of cruciferous plants. Naive ovipositing DBM females were repelled by an extract of dried leaves of Chrysanthemum morifolium, a non-host plant of DBM, but experienced females were not repelled. Instead they were attracted by host plants treated with the non-host-plant extract and laid a higher proportion of eggs on treated than on untreated host plants. Such behavioural changes induced by experience could lead to host-plant range expansion in phytophagous insects and play an important role in determining outcome for pest management of some behavioural manipulation methods.

Overcoming original antigenic sin to generate effective immune responses in antigen primed host

Original antigenic sin is failure to mount effective immunity to virus variants in a previously virus infected host. We have previously shown that prior immunity to a virus capsid protein inhibits induction from naive CD8 T cells of an IFN-g response to a MHC class I restricted epitope linked to the capsid protein, following immunisation with a capsid expressing the class I restricted epitope. The inhibition is independent of pre-existing antibody to the viral capsid, and the inhibition is observed in animal lacking B cells. CD8 restricted viral capsid specific T cell responses are also not required, but the inhibition is not observed in IL10 knockout mice. We now demonstrate that capsid antigen primed CD4+ T cells secrete IL10 in response to capsid antigen presented by DC, and deviate CD8 cells specific for the linked MHC Class I restricted epitope from IFN-g production to IL-5 production. Neutralizing IL10, either in vitro or in vivo, restores induction following immunisation of an antigen specific IFN-g response to an MHC Class I restricted epitope. This finding demonstrates a strategy for overcoming bias towards a Tc2 response to MHC Class I epitopes upon immunisation of a host already primed to antigen, facilitating immunotherapy for chronic viral infection or cancer

Combined Laser and Intravitreal Triamcinolone for Proliferative Diabetic Retinopathy and Macular Edema: One-year Results of a Randomized Clinical Trial

PURPOSE: To evaluate laser combined with intravitreal triamcinolone acetonide (IVTA) for the management of patients with proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) and clinically significant macular edema (CSME). DESIGN: Randomized clinical trial. METHODS: SETTINGS: Single center. STUDY POPULATION: Twenty-two patients with bilateral treatment,naive moderate PDR and CSME. INTERVENTION: Laser (panretinal and macular) photocoagulation was performed in each eye, followed by IVTA in one randomly assigned eye. Best,corrected visual acuity (BCVA), fundus photography, and optical coherence tomography were performed at baseline and at months 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:. Changes in BCVA, central macular thickness (CMT), and total macular volume (TMV). RESULTS: The mean logarithm of the minimal angle of resolution (logMAR) BCVA improved significantly, and mean CMT and TMV were significantly reduced in the IVTA group compared with the laser,only group (controls) at all study follow-up visits (P < .001). The mean logMAR BCVA (Snellen equivalent) was 0.44 (20/50(-2)) for the IVTA group and 0.38 (20/50(+1)) for the controls at baseline, and 0.12 (20/25(-1)) for the IVTA group and 0.32 (20/40(-1)) for the controls at 12 months (P < .001.). The mean CMT and TMV were, respectively, 360 mu m and 8.59 mm(3) for the IVTA group and 331 mu m and 8.44 mm(3) for the controls at baseline, and 236 mu m and 7.32 mm(3) for the IVTA group and 266 mu m and 7.78 mm(3) for the controls at 12 months (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: The combination of laser photocoagulation with IVTA was associated with improved BCVA and decreased CMT and TMV when compared with laser photocoagulation alone for the treatment of moderate PDR with CSME. (Am J Ophthalmol 2009;147:291-297. (C) 2009 by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Gene expression reprogramming protects macrophage from septic-induced cell death

Sepsis induces a systemic inflammatory response leading to tissue damage and cell death. LPS tolerance affects inflammatory response. To comprehend potential new mechanisms of immune regulation in endotoxemia, we examined macrophage mRNA expression by macroarray affected by LPS tolerance. LPS tolerance was induced with subcutaneous administration of 1 mg/kg/day of LPS over 5 days. Macrophages were isolated from the spleen and the expression of 1200 genes was quantitatively analyzed by the macroarray technique. The tolerant group displayed relevant changes in the expression of 84 mRNA when compared to naive mice. A functional group of genes related to cell death regulation was identified. PARP-1, caspase 3, FASL and TRAIL genes were confirmed by RT-PCR to present lower expression in tolerant mice. In addition, reduced expression of the pro-inflammatory genes TNF-alpha and IFN-gamma in the tolerant group was demonstrated. Following this, animals were challenged with polymicrobial sepsis. Flow cytometry analysis showed reduced necrosis and apoptosis in macrophages from the tolerant group compared to the naive group. Finally, a survival study showed a significant reduction in mortality in the tolerant group. Thus, in the current study we provide evidence for the selective reprogramming of the gene expression of cell death pathways during LPS tolerance and link these changes to protection from cell death and enhanced survival rates. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

E7 oncoprotein of human papillomavirus type 16 expressed constitutively in the epidermis has no effect on E7-specific B- or Th-repertoires or on the immune response induced or sustained after immunization with E7 protein

A line of FVB (H-2(q)) mice transgenic for the E6/E7 open reading frames of Human Papillomavirus type 16 driven from the alpha-A crystallin promoter expresses E7 mRNA in lens and skin epithelium. E7 protein is detectable in adult skin, coinciding with the development or inflammatory skin disease, which progresses to papillomata and squamous carcinomata in some mice. By examining the outcome of parenteral immunization with E7 protein, we sought to determine whether endogenous expression of E7 in skin had induced a preexisting immune outcome, i.e., specific immunity or tolerance, or whether the mice remain naive (''ignorant'') to E7. Our data show that the antibody response to defined E7 B-epitopes, the proliferative response to Th epitopes, and the delayed-type hypersensitivity (DTH) response to whole E7 did not differ between groups or young and old E6/E7 transgenic mice (likely having different degrees of lifetime exposure to E7 protein) or between E6/E7-transgenic and nontransgenic parental strain control mice. Although an E7-specific CTL response could not be induced in the H-2(q) background of these mice, incorporation of a D-b allele into the genome allowed comparison of D-b-restricted CTL responses in E6/E7 transgenic and nontransgenic mice. Experiments indicated that the E7-immunization-induced CTL response did not differ significantly between E6/E7 transgenic and nontransgenic mice. We interpret these results to indicate that in spite of expression of E7 protein in adult skin, E6/E7 transgenic mice remain immunologically naive (ignorant) of E7 epitopes presented by immunization. (C) 1997 Academic Press.

Nitric oxide modulates lipopolysaccharide-induced endothelial platelet endothelial cell adhesion molecule expression via interleukin-10

We have shown previously that nitric oxide (NO) controls platelet endothelial cell adhesion molecule (PECAM-1) expression on both neutrophils and endothelial cells under physiological conditions. Here, the molecular mechanism by which NO regulates lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-induced endothelial PECAM-1 expression and the role of interleukin (IL)-10 on this control was investigated. For this purpose, N-(G)-nitro-L-arginine methyl ester (L-NAME; 20 mg/kg/day for 14 days dissolved in drinking water) was used to inhibit both constitutive (cNOS) and inducible nitric oxide (iNOS) synthase activities in LPS-stimulated Wistar rats (5 mg/kg, intraperitoneally). This treatment resulted in reduced levels of serum NO. Under this condition, circulating levels of IL-10 was enhanced, secreted mainly by circulating lymphocytes, dependent on transcriptional activation, and endothelial PECAM-1 expression was reduced independently on reduced gene synthesis. The connection between NO, IL-10 and PECAM-1 expression was examined by incubating LPS-stimulated (1 mu g/ml) cultured endothelial cells obtained from naive rats with supernatant of LPS-stimulated lymphocytes, which were obtained from blood of control or L-NAME-treated rats. Supernatant of LPS-stimulated lymphocytes obtained from L-NAME-treated rats, which contained higher levels of IL-10, reduced LPS-induced PECAM-1 expression by endothelial cells, and this reduction was reversed by adding the anti-IL-10 monoclonal antibody. Therefore, an association between NO, IL-10 and PECAM-1 was found and may represent a novel mechanism by which NO controls endothelial cell functions.

Strategies for genetic model specification in the screening of genome-wide meta-analysis signals for further replication

Background Meta-analysis is increasingly being employed as a screening procedure in large-scale association studies to select promising variants for follow-up studies. However, standard methods for meta-analysis require the assumption of an underlying genetic model, which is typically unknown a priori. This drawback can introduce model misspecifications, causing power to be suboptimal, or the evaluation of multiple genetic models, which augments the number of false-positive associations, ultimately leading to waste of resources with fruitless replication studies. We used simulated meta-analyses of large genetic association studies to investigate naive strategies of genetic model specification to optimize screenings of genome-wide meta-analysis signals for further replication. Methods Different methods, meta-analytical models and strategies were compared in terms of power and type-I error. Simulations were carried out for a binary trait in a wide range of true genetic models, genome-wide thresholds, minor allele frequencies (MAFs), odds ratios and between-study heterogeneity (tau(2)). Results Among the investigated strategies, a simple Bonferroni-corrected approach that fits both multiplicative and recessive models was found to be optimal in most examined scenarios, reducing the likelihood of false discoveries and enhancing power in scenarios with small MAFs either in the presence or in absence of heterogeneity. Nonetheless, this strategy is sensitive to tau(2) whenever the susceptibility allele is common (MAF epsilon 30%), resulting in an increased number of false-positive associations compared with an analysis that considers only the multiplicative model. Conclusion Invoking a simple Bonferroni adjustment and testing for both multiplicative and recessive models is fast and an optimal strategy in large meta-analysis-based screenings. However, care must be taken when examined variants are common, where specification of a multiplicative model alone may be preferable.

Presentation of the HPV16E7 protein by skin grafts is insufficient to allow graft rejection in an E7-primed animal

The E7 transforming protein of Human Papillomavirus type 16 (HPV16) is expressed in the skin of a line of RIB mice transgenic for the E6 and E7 open reading frames of HPV16 driven from the alpha A crystallin promoter (FVB alpha AcryHPV16E6E7). We have transferred skin from FVB alpha AcryHPV16E6E7 mice to naive or E7-primed syngeneic NE recipients to assess whether the E7 protein of HPV16 can function as a minor transplantation antigen (MTA) and promote skin graft rejection. FVB mice did not reject E7 expressing tail or flank skin grafts. E7 immunized FVB x C57BL/6J mice recipients of FVB alpha AcryHPV16E6E7 x C57BL/6J skin generated humoral and DTH responses to E7 in vivo and E7-specific CTL precursors in the spleen, but failed to reject 57 expressing tail skin grafts by 100 days posttransfer. Thus although HPV16 E7 + ve mesenchymal and endodermal tumors can be eliminated by an E7-specific immune response, the same protein is unable to act as a MTA and promote graft rejection when expressed in skin cells. Lack of rejection of grafts expressing MTAs such as E7 may be relevant to the immunology of epithelial tumors expressing tumor-specific antigens and to our understanding of the immunology of diseases of the skin. (C) 1997 Academic Press.