The Cohesive Crack Model Applied To Notched PMMA Specimens Obeying a Non Linear Behaviour Under Torsion Loading

This article presents a new material model developed with the aim of analyzing failure of blunt notched components made of nonlinear brittle materials. The model, which combines the cohesive crack model with Hencky's theory of total deformations, is used to simulate an experimental benchmark carried out previously by the authors. Such combination is achieved through the embedded crack approach concept. In spite of the unavailability of precise material data, the numerical predictions obtained show good agreement with the experimental results.

Electricity price forecasting accounting for renewable energies: optimal combined forecasts

Electricity price forecasting is an interesting problem for all the agents involved in electricity market operation. For instance, every profit maximisation strategy is based on the computation of accurate one-day-ahead forecasts, which is why electricity price forecasting has been a growing field of research in recent years. In addition, the increasing concern about environmental issues has led to a high penetration of renewable energies, particularly wind. In some European countries such as Spain, Germany and Denmark, renewable energy is having a deep impact on the local power markets. In this paper, we propose an optimal model from the perspective of forecasting accuracy, and it consists of a combination of several univariate and multivariate time series methods that account for the amount of energy produced with clean energies, particularly wind and hydro, which are the most relevant renewable energy sources in the Iberian Market. This market is used to illustrate the proposed methodology, as it is one of those markets in which wind power production is more relevant in terms of its percentage of the total demand, but of course our method can be applied to any other liberalised power market. As far as our contribution is concerned, first, the methodology proposed by García-Martos et al(2007 and 2012) is generalised twofold: we allow the incorporation of wind power production and hydro reservoirs, and we do not impose the restriction of using the same model for 24h. A computational experiment and a Design of Experiments (DOE) are performed for this purpose. Then, for those hours in which there are two or more models without statistically significant differences in terms of their forecasting accuracy, a combination of forecasts is proposed by weighting the best models(according to the DOE) and minimising the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The MAPE is the most popular accuracy metric for comparing electricity price forecasting models. We construct the combi nation of forecasts by solving several nonlinear optimisation problems that allow computation of the optimal weights for building the combination of forecasts. The results are obtained by a large computational experiment that entails calculating out-of-sample forecasts for every hour in every day in the period from January 2007 to Decem ber 2009. In addition, to reinforce the value of our methodology, we compare our results with those that appear in recent published works in the field. This comparison shows the superiority of our methodology in terms of forecasting accuracy.

Using hybrid latent class model for city-HUBs´users behaviour analysis

Data from an attitudinal survey and stated preference ranking experiment conducted in two urban European interchanges (i.e. City-HUBs) in Madrid (Spain) and Thessaloniki (Greece) show that the importance that City-HUBs users attach to the intermodal infrastructure varies strongly as a function of their perceptions of time spent in the interchange (i.e.intermodal transfer and waiting time). A principal components analysis allocates respondents (i.e. city-HUB users) to two classes with substantially different perceptions of time saving when they make a transfer and of time using during their waiting time.

A general framework to testing the effect of transport policy measures to achieve a modal shift: a sequental hybrid model

In order to achieve to minimize car-based trips, transport planners have been particularly interested in understanding the factors that explain modal choices. In the transport modelling literature there has been an increasing awareness that socioeconomic attributes and quantitative variables are not sufficient to characterize travelers and forecast their travel behavior. Recent studies have also recognized that users? social interactions and land use patterns influence travel behavior, especially when changes to transport systems are introduced, but links between international and Spanish perspectives are rarely deal. In this paper, factorial and path analyses through a Multiple-Indicator Multiple-Cause (MIMIC) model are used to understand and describe the relationship between the different psychological and environmental constructs with social influence and socioeconomic variables. The MIMIC model generates Latent Variables (LVs) to be incorporated sequentially into Discrete Choice Models (DCM) where the levels of service and cost attributes of travel modes are also included directly to measure the effect of the transport policies that have been introduced in Madrid during the last three years in the context of the economic crisis. The data used for this paper are collected from a two panel smartphone-based survey (n=255 and 190 respondents, respectively) of Madrid.

From Analysis Model to Software Architecture: a PIM2PIM Mapping.

To our knowledge, no current software development methodology explicitly describes how to transit from the analysis model to the software architecture of the application. This paper presents a method to derive the software architecture of a system from its analysis model. To do this, we are going to use MDA. Both the analysis model and the architectural model are PIMs described with UML 2. The model type mapping designed consists of several rules (expressed using OCL and natural language) that, when applied to the analysis artifacts, generate the software architecture of the application. Specifically the rules act on elements of the UML 2 metamodel (metamodel mapping). We have developed a tool (using Smalltalk) that permits the automatic application of these rules to an analysis model defined in RoseTM to generate the application architecture expressed in the architectural style C2.

Bayesian model selection methodology for road safety

Road accidents are a very relevant issue in many countries and macroeconomic models are very frequently applied by academia and administrations to reduce their frequency and consequences. The selection of explanatory variables and response transformation parameter within the Bayesian framework for the selection of the set of explanatory variables a TIM and 3IM (two input and three input models) procedures are proposed. The procedure also uses the DIC and pseudo -R2 goodness of fit criteria. The model to which the methodology is applied is a dynamic regression model with Box-Cox transformation (BCT) for the explanatory variables and autorgressive (AR) structure for the response. The initial set of 22 explanatory variables are identified. The effects of these factors on the fatal accident frequency in Spain, during 2000-2012, are estimated. The dependent variable is constructed considering the stochastic trend component.

Bayesian model selection of structural explanatory models.

In this study we are proposing a Bayesian model selection methodology, where the best model from the list of candidate structural explanatory models is selected. The model structure is based on the Zellner's (1971)explanatory model with autoregressive errors. For the selection technique we are using a parsimonious model, where the model variables are transformed using Box and Cox (1964) class of transformations.

Bayesian model selection of structural explanatory models: Application to road accident data

Using the Bayesian approach as the model selection criteria, the main purpose in this study is to establish a practical road accident model that can provide a better interpretation and prediction performance. For this purpose we are using a structural explanatory model with autoregressive error term. The model estimation is carried out through Bayesian inference and the best model is selected based on the goodness of fit measures. To cross validate the model estimation further prediction analysis were done. As the road safety measures the number of fatal accidents in Spain, during 2000-2011 were employed. The results of the variable selection process show that the factors explaining fatal road accidents are mainly exposure, economic factors, and surveillance and legislative measures. The model selection shows that the impact of economic factors on fatal accidents during the period under study has been higher compared to surveillance and legislative measures.

Fish physiology put into practice: A robotic fish model

Underwater creatures are capable of high performance movements in water. Thus, underwaterrobot design based on the mechanism of fish locomotion appears to be a promising approach.Over the past few years, researches have been developing underwater robots based on underwatercreatures swimming mechanism.

Flood frequency analysis by a bivariate model based on copulas

La adecuada estimación de avenidas de diseño asociadas a altos periodos de retorno es necesaria para el diseño y gestión de estructuras hidráulicas como presas. En la práctica, la estimación de estos cuantiles se realiza normalmente a través de análisis de frecuencia univariados, basados en su mayoría en el estudio de caudales punta. Sin embargo, la naturaleza de las avenidas es multivariada, siendo esencial tener en cuenta características representativas de las avenidas, tales como caudal punta, volumen y duración del hidrograma, con el fin de llevar a cabo un análisis apropiado; especialmente cuando el caudal de entrada se transforma en un caudal de salida diferente durante el proceso de laminación en un embalse o llanura de inundación. Los análisis de frecuencia de avenidas multivariados han sido tradicionalmente llevados a cabo mediante el uso de distribuciones bivariadas estándar con el fin de modelar variables correlacionadas. Sin embargo, su uso conlleva limitaciones como la necesidad de usar el mismo tipo de distribuciones marginales para todas las variables y la existencia de una relación de dependencia lineal entre ellas. Recientemente, el uso de cópulas se ha extendido en hidrología debido a sus beneficios en relación al contexto multivariado, permitiendo superar los inconvenientes de las técnicas tradicionales. Una copula es una función que representa la estructura de dependencia de las variables de estudio, y permite obtener la distribución de frecuencia multivariada de dichas variables mediante sus distribuciones marginales, sin importar el tipo de distribución marginal utilizada. La estimación de periodos de retorno multivariados, y por lo tanto, de cuantiles multivariados, también se facilita debido a la manera en la que las cópulas están formuladas. La presente tesis doctoral busca proporcionar metodologías que mejoren las técnicas tradicionales usadas por profesionales para estimar cuantiles de avenida más adecuados para el diseño y la gestión de presas, así como para la evaluación del riesgo de avenida, mediante análisis de frecuencia de avenidas bivariados basados en cópulas. Las variables consideradas para ello son el caudal punta y el volumen del hidrograma. Con el objetivo de llevar a cabo un estudio completo, la presente investigación abarca: (i) el análisis de frecuencia de avenidas local bivariado centrado en examinar y comparar los periodos de retorno teóricos basados en la probabilidad natural de ocurrencia de una avenida, con el periodo de retorno asociado al riesgo de sobrevertido de la presa bajo análisis, con el fin de proporcionar cuantiles en una estación de aforo determinada; (ii) la extensión del enfoque local al regional, proporcionando un procedimiento completo para llevar a cabo un análisis de frecuencia de avenidas regional bivariado para proporcionar cuantiles en estaciones sin aforar o para mejorar la estimación de dichos cuantiles en estaciones aforadas; (iii) el uso de cópulas para investigar tendencias bivariadas en avenidas debido al aumento de los niveles de urbanización en una cuenca; y (iv) la extensión de series de avenida observadas mediante la combinación de los beneficios de un modelo basado en cópulas y de un modelo hidrometeorológico. Accurate design flood estimates associated with high return periods are necessary to design and manage hydraulic structures such as dams. In practice, the estimate of such quantiles is usually done via univariate flood frequency analyses, mostly based on the study of peak flows. Nevertheless, the nature of floods is multivariate, being essential to consider representative flood characteristics, such as flood peak, hydrograph volume and hydrograph duration to carry out an appropriate analysis; especially when the inflow peak is transformed into a different outflow peak during the routing process in a reservoir or floodplain. Multivariate flood frequency analyses have been traditionally performed by using standard bivariate distributions to model correlated variables, yet they entail some shortcomings such as the need of using the same kind of marginal distribution for all variables and the assumption of a linear dependence relation between them. Recently, the use of copulas has been extended in hydrology because of their benefits regarding dealing with the multivariate context, as they overcome the drawbacks of the traditional approach. A copula is a function that represents the dependence structure of the studied variables, and allows obtaining the multivariate frequency distribution of them by using their marginal distributions, regardless of the kind of marginal distributions considered. The estimate of multivariate return periods, and therefore multivariate quantiles, is also facilitated by the way in which copulas are formulated. The present doctoral thesis seeks to provide methodologies that improve traditional techniques used by practitioners, in order to estimate more appropriate flood quantiles for dam design, dam management and flood risk assessment, through bivariate flood frequency analyses based on the copula approach. The flood variables considered for that goal are peak flow and hydrograph volume. In order to accomplish a complete study, the present research addresses: (i) a bivariate local flood frequency analysis focused on examining and comparing theoretical return periods based on the natural probability of occurrence of a flood, with the return period associated with the risk of dam overtopping, to estimate quantiles at a given gauged site; (ii) the extension of the local to the regional approach, supplying a complete procedure for performing a bivariate regional flood frequency analysis to either estimate quantiles at ungauged sites or improve at-site estimates at gauged sites; (iii) the use of copulas to investigate bivariate flood trends due to increasing urbanisation levels in a catchment; and (iv) the extension of observed flood series by combining the benefits of a copula-based model and a hydro-meteorological model.

Resilence, rural development and suistainable management: a working with people model approach

Nowadays, it has become evident the need to seek sustainable development models that address challenges arising in a variety of contexts. The resilience concept appears connected to the ability of people to cope with adversities that inevitably arise due to context dynamics, at different spatial and temporal scales. This concept is related to the model known as Working With People (WWP), focused on rural development projects planning, management and evaluation, from the integration of three dimensions: technical-entrepreneurial, ethical-social and political-contextual. The research reported is part of the RETHINK European Project, whose overall aim is farm modernization and rural resilience. The resilience concept has been analyzed, in the scope of rural development projects management, and a relationship with the WWP model has been established. To this end, a thorough review of the scientific literature concerning this topic has been addressed, in order to develop the state of the art of the different concepts and models involved. A conceptual proposal for the integration of resilience in rural development projects sustainable management, through the three-dimensional WWP model is presented.

Best practices for school leaders: Implementation of a profesional competence model for school management in Chile

In Chile, during the last three decades there has been a strong decentralization process whose main objective has been to improve the management of schools through the transfer of responsibilities and resources of education and thus improve the outcome of learning, reducing equity gaps between schools and territories. This is how, there has been an evolution of school principals¿ professional profile from an administrative to a management approach, in which principals have become project managers of educational projects. From a competence model for school leaders, based on IPMA guidelines, the present article presents an analysis of best practices for school management, allowing to generate a link between competencies and school management, from the perspective of project management. Results showed that the different competence elements, have relative weights according to the different practice fields, and that this analysis can be considered as a strategic element in educational project planning and development.

Advancements in the design and validation of an air pollution integrated assessment model for Spain

This paper describes the design and application of the Atmospheric Evaluation and Research Integrated model for Spain (AERIS). Currently, AERIS can provide concentration profiles of NO2, O3, SO2, NH3, PM, as a response to emission variations of relevant sectors in Spain. Results are calculated using transfer matrices based on an air quality modelling system (AQMS) composed by the WRF (meteorology), SMOKE (emissions) and CMAQ (atmospheric-chemical processes) models. The AERIS outputs were statistically tested against the conventional AQMS and observations, revealing a good agreement in both cases. At the moment, integrated assessment in AERIS focuses only on the link between emissions and concentrations. The quantification of deposition, impacts (health, ecosystems) and costs will be introduced in the future. In conclusion, the main asset of AERIS is its accuracy in predicting air quality outcomes for different scenarios through a simple yet robust modelling framework, avoiding complex programming and long computing times.

Distributed Estimation of Distribution Algorithms for continuous optimization: how does the exchanged information influence their behavior?

One of the most promising areas in which probabilistic graphical models have shown an incipient activity is the field of heuristic optimization and, in particular, in Estimation of Distribution Algorithms. Due to their inherent parallelism, different research lines have been studied trying to improve Estimation of Distribution Algorithms from the point of view of execution time and/or accuracy. Among these proposals, we focus on the so-called distributed or island-based models. This approach defines several islands (algorithms instances) running independently and exchanging information with a given frequency. The information sent by the islands can be either a set of individuals or a probabilistic model. This paper presents a comparative study for a distributed univariate Estimation of Distribution Algorithm and a multivariate version, paying special attention to the comparison of two alternative methods for exchanging information, over a wide set of parameters and problems ? the standard benchmark developed for the IEEE Workshop on Evolutionary Algorithms and other Metaheuristics for Continuous Optimization Problems of the ISDA 2009 Conference. Several analyses from different points of view have been conducted to analyze both the influence of the parameters and the relationships between them including a characterization of the configurations according to their behavior on the proposed benchmark.

SemQuaRE - An extension of the SQuaRE quality model for the evaluation of semantic technologies

To correctly evaluate semantic technologies and to obtain results that can be easily integrated, we need to put evaluations under the scope of a unique software quality model. This paper presents SemQuaRE, a quality model for semantic technologies. SemQuaRE is based on the SQuaRE standard and describes a set of quality characteristics specific to semantic technologies and the quality measures that can be used for their measurement. It also provides detailed formulas for the calculation of such measures. The paper shows that SemQuaRE is complete with respect to current evaluation trends and that it has been successfully applied in practice.