916 resultados para modeling and prediction


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This thesis describes the development of a simple and accurate method for estimating the quantity and composition of household waste arisings. The method is based on the fundamental tenet that waste arisings can be predicted from information on the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of households, thus reducing the need for the direct measurement of waste arisings to that necessary for the calibration of a prediction model. The aim of the research is twofold: firstly to investigate the generation of waste arisings at the household level, and secondly to devise a method for supplying information on waste arisings to meet the needs of waste collection and disposal authorities, policy makers at both national and European level and the manufacturers of plant and equipment for waste sorting and treatment. The research was carried out in three phases: theoretical, empirical and analytical. In the theoretical phase specific testable hypotheses were formulated concerning the process of waste generation at the household level. The empirical phase of the research involved an initial questionnaire survey of 1277 households to obtain data on their socio-economic characteristics, and the subsequent sorting of waste arisings from each of the households surveyed. The analytical phase was divided between (a) the testing of the research hypotheses by matching each household's waste against its demographic/socioeconomic characteristics (b) the development of statistical models capable of predicting the waste arisings from an individual household and (c) the development of a practical method for obtaining area-based estimates of waste arisings using readily available data from the national census. The latter method was found to represent a substantial improvement over conventional methods of waste estimation in terms of both accuracy and spatial flexibility. The research therefore represents a substantial contribution both to scientific knowledge of the process of household waste generation, and to the practical management of waste arisings.

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The investigation of insulation debris generation, transport and sedimentation becomes important with regard to reactor safety research for PWR and BWR, when considering the long-term behavior of emergency core cooling systems during all types of loss of coolant accidents (LOCA). The insulation debris released near the break during a LOCA incident consists of a mixture of disparate particle population that varies with size, shape, consistency and other properties. Some fractions of the released insulation debris can be transported into the reactor sump, where it may perturb/impinge on the emergency core cooling systems. Open questions of generic interest are the sedimentation of the insulation debris in a water pool, its possible re-suspension and transport in the sump water flow and the particle load on strainers and corresponding pressure drop. A joint research project on such questions is being performed in cooperation between the University of Applied Sciences Zittau/Görlitz and the Forschungszentrum Dresden-Rossendorf. The project deals with the experimental investigation of particle transport phenomena in coolant flow and the development of CFD models for its description. While the experiments are performed at the University at Zittau/Görlitz, the theoretical modeling efforts are concentrated at Forschungszentrum Dresden-Rossendorf. In the current paper the basic concepts for CFD modeling are described and feasibility studies including the conceptual design of the experiments are presented.

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This paper discusses preliminary work on modeling and validation dynamic adaptation. The proposed approach is on the use of aspect-oriented modeling (AOM) and models at runtime. Our approach covers design and runtime phases. At design-time, a base model and different variant architecture models are designed and the adaptation model is built. Crucially, the adaptation model includes invariant properties and constraints that allow the validation of the adaptation rules before execution. During runtime, the adaptation model is processed to produce a correct system configuration that can be executed.

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The performances of L-band EDFA are modeled and analyzed, based on C-band EDFA, through variation of pump power, ion concentration and fiber length. The fiber length promises higher performance than others. © 2005 Optical Society of America.

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Dance videos are interesting and semantics-intensive. At the same time, they are the complex type of videos compared to all other types such as sports, news and movie videos. In fact, dance video is the one which is less explored by the researchers across the globe. Dance videos exhibit rich semantics such as macro features and micro features and can be classified into several types. Hence, the conceptual modeling of the expressive semantics of the dance videos is very crucial and complex. This paper presents a generic Dance Video Semantics Model (DVSM) in order to represent the semantics of the dance videos at different granularity levels, identified by the components of the accompanying song. This model incorporates both syntactic and semantic features of the videos and introduces a new entity type called, Agent, to specify the micro features of the dance videos. The instantiations of the model are expressed as graphs. The model is implemented as a tool using J2SE and JMF to annotate the macro and micro features of the dance videos. Finally examples and evaluation results are provided to depict the effectiveness of the proposed dance video model.

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With this paper we would like to trigger a discussion on future needs of modeling and simulation techniques and tools for the telecommunication industry. We claim that the telecommunication market has undergone severe changes that affect the need for and type of simulations in industrial research. We suggest some approaches how to address these new challenges. We believe that there is need for intensive research in the area.

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Numerical modeling of cascade erbium-doped and holmium-doped fluoride fiber lasers is presented. Fiber lengths were optimized for cascade lasers that had fixed or free-running wavelengths using all known spectroscopic parameters. The performance of the cascade laser was tested against dopant concentration, energy transfer process, heat generation, output coupling, and pump schemes. The results suggest that the slope efficiencies and thresholds for both transitions increase with increasing Ho3+ or Er3+ concentration with the slope efficiency stabilizing after 1 mol% rare earth doping. The heat generation in the Ho3+-based system is lower compared to the Er 3+-based system at low dopant concentration as a result of the lower rates of multiphonon relaxation. Decreasing the output coupling for the upper (∼3 μm) transition decreases the threshold of the lower transition and the upper transition benefits from decreasing the output coupling for the lower transition for both cascade systems. The highest slope efficiency was achieved under counter-propagating pump conditions. Saturation of the output power occurs at comparatively higher pump power with dilute Er3+ doping compared with heavier doping. Overall, we show that the cascade Ho3+ -doped fluoride laser is the best candidate for high power output because of its higher slope efficiency and lower temperature excursion of the core and no saturation of the output. © 2013 IEEE.

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This paper reviews the state of the art in measuring, modeling, and managing clogging in subsurface-flow treatment wetlands. Methods for measuring in situ hydraulic conductivity in treatment wetlands are now available, which provide valuable insight into assessing and evaluating the extent of clogging. These results, paired with the information from more traditional approaches (e.g., tracer testing and composition of the clog matter) are being incorporated into the latest treatment wetland models. Recent finite element analysis models can now simulate clogging development in subsurface-flow treatment wetlands with reasonable accuracy. Various management strategies have been developed to extend the life of clogged treatment wetlands, including gravel excavation and/or washing, chemical treatment, and application of earthworms. These strategies are compared and available cost information is reported. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

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The complex of questions connected with the analysis, estimation and structural-parametrical optimization of dynamic system is considered in this article. Connection of such problems with tasks of control by beams of trajectories is emphasized. The special attention is concentrated on the review and analysis of spent scientific researches, the attention is stressed to their constructability and applied directedness. Efficiency of the developed algorithmic and software is demonstrated on the tasks of modeling and optimization of output beam characteristics in linear resonance accelerators.

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For metal and metal halide vapor lasers excited by high frequency pulsed discharge, the thermal effect mainly caused by the radial temperature distribution is of considerable importance for stable laser operation and improvement of laser output characteristics. A short survey of the obtained analytical and numerical-analytical mathematical models of the temperature profile in a high-powered He-SrBr2 laser is presented. The models are described by the steady-state heat conduction equation with mixed type nonlinear boundary conditions for the arbitrary form of the volume power density. A complete model of radial heat flow between the two tubes is established for precise calculating the inner wall temperature. The models are applied for simulating temperature profiles for newly designed laser. The author’s software prototype LasSim is used for carrying out the mathematical models and simulations.

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Specification of the non-functional requirements of applications and determining the required resources for their execution are activities that demand a great deal of technical knowledge, frequently resulting in an inefficient use of resources. Cloud computing is an alternative for provisioning of resources, which can be done using either the provider's own infrastructure or the infrastructure of one or more public clouds, or even a combination of both. It enables more flexibly/elastic use of resources, but does not solve the specification problem. In this paper we present an approach that uses models at runtime to facilitate the specification of non-functional requirements and resources, aiming to facilitate dynamic support for application execution in cloud computing environments with shared resources. © 2013 IEEE.

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A dolgozatban a hitelderivatívák intenzitásalapú modellezésének néhány kérdését vizsgáljuk meg. Megmutatjuk, hogy alkalmas mértékcserével nemcsak a duplán sztochasztikus folyamatok, hanem tetszőleges intenzitással rendelkező pontfolyamat esetén is kiszámolható az összetett kár- és csődfolyamat eloszlásának Laplace-transzformáltja. _____ The paper addresses questions concerning the use of intensity based modeling in the pricing of credit derivatives. As the specification of the distribution of the lossprocess is a non-trivial exercise, the well-know technique for this task utilizes the inversion of the Laplace-transform. A popular choice for the model is the class of doubly stochastic processes given that their Laplace-transforms can be determined easily. Unfortunately these processes lack several key features supported by the empirical observations, e.g. they cannot replicate the self-exciting nature of defaults. The aim of the paper is to show that by using an appropriate change of measure the Laplace-transform can be calculated not only for a doubly stochastic process, but for an arbitrary point process with intensity as well. To support the application of the technique, we investigate the e®ect of the change of measure on the stochastic nature of the underlying process.

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Three new technologies have been brought together to develop a miniaturized radiation monitoring system. The research involved (1) Investigation a new HgI$\sb2$ detector. (2) VHDL modeling. (3) FPGA implementation. (4) In-circuit Verification. The packages used included an EG&G's crystal(HgI$\sb2$) manufactured at zero gravity, the Viewlogic's VHDL and Synthesis, Xilinx's technology library, its FPGA implementation tool, and a high density device (XC4003A). The results show: (1) Reduced cycle-time between Design and Hardware implementation; (2) Unlimited Re-design and implementation using the static RAM technology; (3) Customer based design, verification, and system construction; (4) Well suited for intelligent systems. These advantages excelled conventional chip design technologies and methods in easiness, short cycle time, and price in medium sized VLSI applications. It is also expected that the density of these devices will improve radically in the near future. ^