Handling uncertainty in housing stock models

Housing stock models can be useful tools in helping to assess the environmental and socio-economic impacts of retrofits to residential buildings; however, existing housing stock models are not able to quantify the uncertainties that arise in the modelling process from various sources, thus limiting the role that they can play in helping decision makers. This paper examines the different sources of uncertainty involved in housing stock models and proposes a framework for handling these uncertainties. This framework involves integrating probabilistic sensitivity analysis with a Bayesian calibration process in order to quantify uncertain parameters more accurately. The proposed framework is tested on a case study building, and suggestions are made on how to expand the framework for retrofit analysis at an urban-scale. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Sequential analysis for testing quality standard of fish ham and sausage

Fish sausages are finely ground fish flesh, either of a single species or mixed, homogenised with starch, sugar, fat, spices and preservatives, generally filled in cylindrical synthetic or natural casings and pasteurised. Similar products containing small pieces of quality fish and lard are termed "fish ham". They are highly relished products in Japan, annual consumption exceeding 2 lakh tones. Preliminary studies have shown that they can catch a lucrative market in our country. However, being a pasteurised product which is often consumed as such without any further cooking, strict quality control measures have to be enforced so as to avoid food poisoning hazards. Besides physical characteristics like absence of damages, pin-holes, curliness and air pockets as well as jelly strength, texture and flavour, chemical characteristics like pH and acid values, moisture, carbohydrate and fat contents and volatile bases have to be assessed. A very important test that has to be carried out along with the above, before passing a lot for free distribution is the bacteriological examination to avoid the presence of pathogenic organisms.

Population dynamics and stock assessment of the common carp (Cyprinus carpio) in Iranian waters of the Caspian Sea

In order to come up with the responsible fishing pattern of common carp, there was a need to identify some of the biological characteristics and stock assessment of carp in Iranian waters of the Caspian Sea .The fork length ,weight ,age ,growth parameters of von bertalanffy and mortality rates of common carp were estimated from oct 2006 to sept 2007.Based on the exponential relationship between length and weight in the size range 6.3-65.6 cm ,b was calculated 2.895, 2.843 and 2.925 respectively for combined sexes ,males and females. The mean condition factor was 1.9 which is close to the ideal condition.The results from measuring 3170 specimens ,were showed the first fork length of maturity was 30 cm for males and 32 cm for females. The results indicated that females were predominate and sex ratio was 0.66:1 (M:F) and chi-squares analysis showeda significant difference between males and females.(p<0.05).Length infinity and growth coefficient were calculated by three different methods as below: Length frequency analysis : k=0.17 L∞ =68.04 Age-Length Key k=0.15 L∞ =74.25 Back calculation : k=0.14 L∞ =68.4 The mortality parameters and exploitation rate were estimated as below : Z=0.73 per year M=0.31 per year F=0.42 per year E=0.56 Refer to amount of common carp catch in 2007 -08 ,biomass was calculated 9640.2 tones by jone's cohort analysis and MSY 2374.5 tones.According to analysis ,the number of common carp in the distribution area (Iranian part of the Caspian Sea ) was estimated 24 millions in the 2006-07.

Genetic study on breeding stock of the Indian mackerel along the Indian coast

The study included: sample collection; microsatellite genotyping and analysis; and preliminary results

Investigation on biodiversity and population structure of Penaeus sernisulcatus [sic] in northern waters of Persian Gulf

Green tiger prawn, Penaeus sentisulcatus is one of the commercial species of Persian Gulf, which is distributed from north to Strait of I Iormoze. Concerning its role in fisheries economic, various research projects on stock assessment, biology and aquaculture has been conducted. This research is targeted the identification of various populations of green tiger prawn in northern waters of Persian Gulf. The area has been divided to five regions from north to south named; Bahrakan, Boushehr, Tangestan, Motaaf and Strait of Hormoz. In each region, numbers of sampling stations trawled, and live shrimp species carried in containers equipped with air pump, to coastal laboratories in Boushehr and Bandar Abbass Fisheries Research Centers. Biometeric, morphometeric and merestic measures for 45 factars done, and peices of muscles, eye and ovary tissues dissected, and stored in liquid nitrogen. Protein extraction, and polyacrylamid gel electrophoresis by SDS-PAGE technique for tissues samples conducted. Data of 45 morphometeric and merestic characteristics analyzed by principal component analysis (PCA), and clustering analysis methods. The results of analysis showed that, the populations of Bahrakan and Mota.af regions are differentiated, while population of Boushehr and Tangestan regions were mixed, and named as a single population. The analysis of electrophoretic data also confirmed this result, and showed a distinct population in Strait of Hormoz. Therefore, this research illustrated four distinct populations for P. semisulcatus in northern area of Persian Gulf, named Bahrakan (north of Boushehr), Boushehr and Tangesta.n (adjacent), Motaaf and it's south, and Strait of Hormoz. Study of morphometeric characteristics of carapace factors, genital organs, antenna and life cycle of samples of different regions resulting identification of a subspecies, which is named Penaeus seinisuleatus persicus.

Stock structure of Indian mackerel in Sri Lankan coastal waters

The objective of the project was to determine the stock structure of Indian Mackerel (Rastrelliger kanagurta) using microsatellite analysis

Lake Nasser fisheries: literature review and situation analysis

This study sought to improve the baseline knowledge of the fisheries of Lake Nasser and to make recommendations for the improved management of the fisheries, including stock assessment. This review draws heavily from the most recent reviews of Lake Nasserr and its fisheries, including van Zwieten et al. (2011), Habib et al. (2014) and Habib (2015). It is supplemented with findings from the field study described in the final technical report, Lake Nasser fisheries: Recommendations for management, including monitoring and stock assessment (Halls 2015).

Approaches to the evaluation and management of the fish stock in Kainji Lake, Nigeria

Estimates of potential yield for Kainji Lake, and the methods of analysis by earlier workers are discussed. Also summarized is the state of the fishery after impoundment, between 1969 and 1971, based on experimental gillnet catches. Recent sampling of the young of the year along the littoral margin indicates that most of the commercially important species have spawned successful1y in the lake. An intense fishing mortality of juvenile fish, owing to the use of small mesh nets by local fishermen, presents a possible threat to the future establishment of the fish in the lake. The results of gill-net selection studies based on HOLT'S (1957) method are given. The data have been extracted from experimental gill-net catches with graded fleets of nets between 1969 and 1971. Recommendations based on the above studies have been made to ensure a successful establishment of the fish species in the lake and an increase in catch-per~unit effort in subsequent years.

A probabilistic energy model for non-domestic building sectors applied to analysis of school buildings in greater London

The diversity of non-domestic buildings at urban scale poses a number of difficulties to develop models for large scale analysis of the stock. This research proposes a probabilistic, engineering-based, bottom-up model to address these issues. In a recent study we classified London's non-domestic buildings based on the service they provide, such as offices, retail premise, and schools, and proposed the creation of one probabilistic representational model per building type. This paper investigates techniques for the development of such models. The representational model is a statistical surrogate of a dynamic energy simulation (ES) model. We first identify the main parameters affecting energy consumption in a particular building sector/type by using sampling-based global sensitivity analysis methods, and then generate statistical surrogate models of the dynamic ES model within the dominant model parameters. Given a sample of actual energy consumption for that sector, we use the surrogate model to infer the distribution of model parameters by inverse analysis. The inferred distributions of input parameters are able to quantify the relative benefits of alternative energy saving measures on an entire building sector with requisite quantification of uncertainties. Secondary school buildings are used for illustrating the application of this probabilistic method. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fertile-free annular fuel for plutonium recycling

Up to 50% increase in the power density of the existing pressurized water reactor (PWR)-type reactors can be achieved by the use of internally and externally cooled annular fuel geometry. As a result, the accumulated stock-piles of Pu, especially if incorporated infertile-free inert matrix, can be burnt at a substantially higher rate as compared with the conventional mixed oxide-fueled reactors operating at standard power density. In this work, we explore the basic feasibility of a PWR core fully loaded with Pu incorporated infertile-free fuel of annular internally and externally cooled geometry and operating at 150% of nominal power density. We evaluate basic burnable poison designs, fuel management strategies, and reactivity feedback coefficients. The three-dimensional full core neutronic analysis performed with Studsvik Core Management System showed that the design of such a Pu-loaded annular fuel core is feasible but significantly more challenging than the Pu fertile-free core with solid fuel pins operating at nominal power density. The main difficulty arises from the fact that the annular fuel core requires at least 50% higher initial Pu loading in order to maintain the standard fuel cycle length of 18 months. Such a high Pu loading results in hardening of the neutron spectrum and consequent reduction in reactivity worth of all reactivity control mechanisms and, in some cases, positive moderator temperature coefficient (MTC). The use of isotopically enriched Gd and Er burnable poisons was found to be beneficial with respect to maximizing Pu burnup and reducing power peaking factors. Overall, the annular fertile-free Pu-loaded high-power-density core appears to be feasible, although it still has relatively high power peaking and potential for slightly positive MTC at beginning of cycle. However, we estimate that limiting the power density to 140% of the nominal case would assure acceptable core power peaking and negative MTC at all times during the cycle.

Is UK Planning a Barrier to Energy Efficient Heritage Retrofit: A Comparative Analysis of a Selection of London Boroughs

This paper is part of a larger PhD research project examining the apparent conflict in UK planning between energy efficiency and conservation for the retrofit of the thermal envelope of the existing building stock. Review of the literature shows that the UK will not meet its 2050 emission reduction target without substantial improvement to the energy performance of the thermal envelope of the existing building stock and that significantly, 40% of the existing stock has heritage status and may be exempted from Building Regulations. A review of UK policy and legislation shows that there are clear national priorities towards reducing emissions and addressing climate change, yet also shows a movement towards local decision making and control. This paper compares the current status of thirteen London Boroughs in respect to their position on thermal envelope retrofit for heritage and traditionally constructed buildings. Data collection is through ongoing surveys and interviews that compare statistical data, planning policies, sustainability and environmental priorities, and Officer decision-making. This paper finds that there is a lack of consistency in application of planning policy across Boroughs and suggests that this is a barrier to the up-take of energy efficient retrofit. Various recommendations are suggested at both national and local level which could help UK planning and planning officers deliver more energy efficient heritage retrofits.

Genetic heterogeneity and ploidy level analysis among different gynogenetic clones of the polyploid gibel carp

Background: Some triploid and tetraploid clones have been identified in the gynogenetic gibel carp, Carassius auratus gibelio Bloch, by karyotypic and cytologic analyses over many years. Further, 5-20% males and karyotypic diversity have been found among their natural and artificial populations. However, the DNA contents and the relation to their ploidy level and chromosome numbers have not been ascertained, and whether normal meiosis occurs in spermatogenesis needs to be determined in the different clones. Methods: The sampled blood cells or sperms were mixed with blood cells from chicken or individual gibel carp and fixed in 70% pre-cooled ethanol overnight at 4degreesC. The mixed cell pellets were washed 2-3 times in 1x phosphate buffered saline and then resuspended in the solution containing 0.5% pepsin and 0.1 M HCl. DNA was stained with propidium iodide solution (40 mug/mL) containing 4 kU/ml RNase. The measurements of DNA contents were performed with Phoenix Flow Systems. Results: Triploid clones A, E, F, and P had almost equal DNA content, but triploid clone D had greater DNA content than did the other four triploid clones. DNA content of clone M (7.01 +/- 0.15 pg/nucleus) was almost equal to the DNA content of clone D (5-38 +/- 0.06 pg/nucleus) plus the DNA content of common carp sperm (1.64 +/- 0.02 pg/nucleus). The DNA contents of sperms from clones A, P, and D were half of their blood cells, suggesting that normal meiosis occurs in spermatogenesis. Conclusions: Flow cytometry is a powerful method to analyze genetic heterogeneity and ploidy level among different gynogenetic clones of polyploid gibel carp. Through this study, four questions have been answered. (a) The DNA content correlation among the five triploid clones and one multiple tetraploid clone was revealed in the gibel carp, and the contents increased with not only the ploidy level but also the chromosome number. (b) Mean DNA content was 0.052 pg in six extra chromosomes of clone D, which was higher than that of each chromosome in clones A, E, F, and P (about 0.032 pg/ chromosome). This means that the six extra chromosomes are larger chromosomes. (c) Normal meiosis occurred during spermatogenesis of the gibel carp, because DNA contents of the sperms from clones A, P, and D were almost half of that in their blood cells. (d) Multiple tetraploid clone M (7.01 +/- 0.15 pg/nucleus) contained the complete genome of clone D (5.38 +/- 0.06 pg/nucleus) and the genome of common carp sperm (1.64 +/- 0.02 pg/nucleus). Cytometry Part A 56A:46-52, 2003. (C) 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Synthesis of composite AIN powder mixed with sintering additives by the Lanxide method

Composite AlN powder, mixed with the sintering additive Y2O3, was synthesized by the direct nitridation of molten Al-Mg-Y alloys. The character of products was determined by means of electron microscopy, X-ray diffraction, granularmetric analysis and chemical composition analysis etc. The results show that the nitridation rate of the raw alloys is higher, and the nitridation products axe porous enough to be easily crushed. Composite AlN powder, obtained by the Lanxide method, has excellent characters such as high purity, especially low oxygen content, and narrow well-distributed grain size and so on.

Multiplicity factor and diffraction geometry factor for single crystal X-ray diffraction analysis and measurement of phase content in cubic GaN/GaAs(001) epilayers

On the basis of integrated intensity of rocking curves, the multiplicity factor and the diffraction geometry factor for single crystal X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis were proposed and a general formula for calculating the content of mixed phases was obtained. With a multifunction four-circle X-ray double-crystal diffractometer, pole figures of cubic (002), {111} and hexagonal {1010} and reciprocal space mapping were measured to investigate the distributive character of mixed phases and to obtain their multiplicity factors and diffraction geometry factors. The contents of cubic twins and hexagonal inclusions were calculated by the integrated intensities of rocking curves of cubic (002), cubic twin {111}, hexagonal {1010} and {1011}.

Numerical analysis of four-wave-mixing based multichannel wavelength conversion techniques in fibers

We numerically investigate four-wave-mixing (FWM) based multichannel wavelength conversion for amplitude-modulated signals, phase-modulated signals, together with mixed amplitude and phase modulated signals. This paper also discusses the influence of stimulated Brillouin scattering (SBS) effects on high-efficiency FWM-based wavelength conversion applications. Our simulation results show that DPSK signals are more suitable for FWM-based multichannel wavelength conversion because the OOK signals will suffer from the inevitable datapattern-dependent pump depletion. In future applications, when the modulation format is partially upgraded from OOK to DPSK, the influence of OOK signals on the updated DPSK signals must be considered when using multichannel wavelength conversion. This influence becomes severe with the increase of OOK channel number. It can be concluded that DPSK signals are more appropriate for both transmission and multichannel wavelength conversion,especially in long haul and high bit-rate system.