A Model-Based Approach for Making Ecological Inference from Distance Sampling Data

We consider a fully model-based approach for the analysis of distance sampling data. Distance sampling has been widely used to estimate abundance (or density) of animals or plants in a spatially explicit study area. There is, however, no readily available method of making statistical inference on the relationships between abundance and environmental covariates. Spatial Poisson process likelihoods can be used to simultaneously estimate detection and intensity parameters by modeling distance sampling data as a thinned spatial point process. A model-based spatial approach to distance sampling data has three main benefits: it allows complex and opportunistic transect designs to be employed, it allows estimation of abundance in small subregions, and it provides a framework to assess the effects of habitat or experimental manipulation on density. We demonstrate the model-based methodology with a small simulation study and analysis of the Dubbo weed data set. In addition, a simple ad hoc method for handling overdispersion is also proposed. The simulation study showed that the model-based approach compared favorably to conventional distance sampling methods for abundance estimation. In addition, the overdispersion correction performed adequately when the number of transects was high. Analysis of the Dubbo data set indicated a transect effect on abundance via Akaike’s information criterion model selection. Further goodness-of-fit analysis, however, indicated some potential confounding of intensity with the detection function.

Numerical analysis of different methods to calculate residual stresses in thin films based on instrumented indentation data

In this work, different methods to estimate the value of thin film residual stresses using instrumented indentation data were analyzed. This study considered procedures proposed in the literature, as well as a modification on one of these methods and a new approach based on the effect of residual stress on the value of hardness calculated via the Oliver and Pharr method. The analysis of these methods was centered on an axisymmetric two-dimensional finite element model, which was developed to simulate instrumented indentation testing of thin ceramic films deposited onto hard steel substrates. Simulations were conducted varying the level of film residual stress, film strain hardening exponent, film yield strength, and film Poisson's ratio. Different ratios of maximum penetration depth h(max) over film thickness t were also considered, including h/t = 0.04, for which the contribution of the substrate in the mechanical response of the system is not significant. Residual stresses were then calculated following the procedures mentioned above and compared with the values used as input in the numerical simulations. In general, results indicate the difference that each method provides with respect to the input values depends on the conditions studied. The method by Suresh and Giannakopoulos consistently overestimated the values when stresses were compressive. The method provided by Wang et al. has shown less dependence on h/t than the others.

The exponential COM-Poisson distribution

The Conway-Maxwell Poisson (COMP) distribution as an extension of the Poisson distribution is a popular model for analyzing counting data. For the first time, we introduce a new three parameter distribution, so-called the exponential-Conway-Maxwell Poisson (ECOMP) distribution, that contains as sub-models the exponential-geometric and exponential-Poisson distributions proposed by Adamidis and Loukas (Stat Probab Lett 39:35-42, 1998) and KuAY (Comput Stat Data Anal 51:4497-4509, 2007), respectively. The new density function can be expressed as a mixture of exponential density functions. Expansions for moments, moment generating function and some statistical measures are provided. The density function of the order statistics can also be expressed as a mixture of exponential densities. We derive two formulae for the moments of order statistics. The elements of the observed information matrix are provided. Two applications illustrate the usefulness of the new distribution to analyze positive data.

A Bayesian analysis of the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson cure rate model

The purpose of this paper is to develop a Bayesian analysis for the right-censored survival data when immune or cured individuals may be present in the population from which the data is taken. In our approach the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution which generalizes the Poisson distribution. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used to develop a Bayesian procedure for the proposed model. Also, some discussions on the model selection and an illustration with a real data set are considered.

Longitudinal reference ranges for fetal ultrasound biometry in twin pregnancies

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to establish longitudinal reference ranges for fetal ultrasound biometry measurements and growth parameters in twin pregnancies. METHOD: A total of 200 uncomplicated twin pregnancies before 21 weeks of gestation were recruited for this prospective, longitudinal study. Women who abandoned follow-up, pregnancies with unknown outcomes or pregnancies with complications were excluded. Ultrasound scans were performed every three weeks, and biparietal and occipitofrontal diameters, head and abdominal circumferences, and femur diaphysis length measurements were obtained for each fetus at each visit. Estimated fetal weight, biparietal/occipitofrontal diameter, head circumference/abdominal circumference, and femur diaphysis length/abdominal circumference ratios were also calculated. Multilevel regression analysis was performed on normalized data. RESULTS: A total of 807 ultrasound examinations were performed in 125 twin pregnancies between 14 and 38 weeks of gestation (6.5 +/- 1.4 scans/pregnancy). Regression analysis demonstrated significant correlations for all variables with gestational age, namely log of the biparietal diameter (r = 0.98), log of the occipitofrontal diameter (r = 0.98), log of the head circumference (r = 0.99), log of the abdominal circumference (r = 0.98), square root of the femur length (r = 0.99), log of the estimated fetal weight (r = 0.99), biparietal/occipitofrontal ratio (r = -0.11), head/abdomen circumference ratio (r = -0.56), and log of the femur length/abdominal circumference ratio (r = 0.61). Values corresponding to the 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles for estimated fetal weight at 28, 32, and 36 weeks, respectively, were as follows: 937, 1,096, 1,284 g; 1,462, 1,720, 2,025 g; and 2,020, 2,399, 2,849 g. CONCLUSION: In twin pregnancies, fetal ultrasound biometry measurements and growth parameters show a significant correlation with gestational age.

The Poisson-exponential regression model under different latent activation schemes

In this paper, a new family of survival distributions is presented. It is derived by considering that the latent number of failure causes follows a Poisson distribution and the time for these causes to be activated follows an exponential distribution. Three different activation schemes are also considered. Moreover, we propose the inclusion of covariates in the model formulation in order to study their effect on the expected value of the number of causes and on the failure rate function. Inferential procedure based on the maximum likelihood method is discussed and evaluated via simulation. The developed methodology is illustrated on a real data set on ovarian cancer.

Longitudinal and transverse spin asymmetries for inclusive jet production at mid-rapidity in polarized p+p collisions at root s=200 GeV

We report STAR measurements of the longitudinal double-spin asymmetry A(LL), the transverse singlespin asymmetry A(N), and the transverse double-spin asymmetries A(Sigma) and A(TT) for inclusive jet production at mid-rapidity in polarized p + p collisions at a center-of-mass energy of root s = 200 GeV. The data represent integrated luminosities of 7.6 pb(-1) with longitudinal polarization and 1.8 pb(-1) with transverse polarization, with 50%-55% beam polarization, and were recorded in 2005 and 2006. No evidence is found for the existence of statistically significant jet A(N), A(Sigma), or A(TT) at mid-rapidity. Recent model calculations indicate the A(N) results may provide new limits on the gluon Sivers distribution in the proton. The asymmetry A(LL) significantly improves the knowledge of gluon polarization in the nucleon.

A Poisson mixed model with nonnormal random effect distribution

In this paper, we propose a random intercept Poisson model in which the random effect is assumed to follow a generalized log-gamma (GLG) distribution. This random effect accommodates (or captures) the overdispersion in the counts and induces within-cluster correlation. We derive the first two moments for the marginal distribution as well as the intraclass correlation. Even though numerical integration methods are, in general, required for deriving the marginal models, we obtain the multivariate negative binomial model from a particular parameter setting of the hierarchical model. An iterative process is derived for obtaining the maximum likelihood estimates for the parameters in the multivariate negative binomial model. Residual analysis is proposed and two applications with real data are given for illustration. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of psychosocial risk factors on the trajectory of mental health problems from childhood to adolescence: a longitudinal study

Background Longitudinal epidemiological studies involving child/adolescent mental health problems are scarce in developing countries, particularly in regions characterized by adverse living conditions. We examined the influence of psychosocial factors on the trajectory of child/adolescent mental health problems (CAMHP) over time. Methods A population-based sample of 6- to 13-year-olds with CAMHP was followed-up from 2002–2003 (Time 1/T1) to 2007–2008 (Time 2/T2), with 86 out of 124 eligible children/adolescents at T1 being reassessed at T2 (sample loss: 30.6%). Outcome: CAMHP at T2 according to the Child Behavior Checklist/CBCL’s total problem scale. Psychosocial factors: T1 variables (child/adolescent’s age, family socioeconomic status); trajectory of variables from T1 to T2 (child/adolescent exposure to severe physical punishment, mother exposure to severe physical marital violence, maternal anxiety/depression); and T2 variables (maternal education, child/adolescent’s social support and pro-social activities). Results Multivariate analysis identified two risk factors for child/adolescent MHP at T2: aggravation of child/adolescent physical punishment and aggravation of maternal anxiety/depression. Conclusions The current study shows the importance of considering child/adolescent physical punishment and maternal anxiety/depression in intervention models and mental health care policies.

Longitudinal evolution of cognitive functions in patients with multiple system atrophy: a prospective study

Introduction and Background: Multiple system atrophy (MSA) is a sporadic, adult-onset, progressive neurodegenerative disease characterized clinically by parkinsonism, cerebellar ataxia, and autonomic failure. We investigated cognitive functions longitudinally in a group of probable MSA patients, matching data with sleep parameters. Patients and Methods: 10 patients (7m/3f) underwent a detailed interview, a general and neurological examination, laboratory exams, MRI scans, a cardiovascular reflexes study, a battery of neuropsychological tests, and video-polysomnographic recording (VPSG). Patients were revaluated (T1) a mean of 16±5 (range: 12-28) months after the initial evaluation (T0). At T1, the neuropsychological assessment and VPSG were repeated. Results: The mean patient age was 57.8±6.4 years (range: 47-64) with a mean age at disease onset of 53.2±7.1 years (range: 43-61) and symptoms duration at T0 of 60±48 months (range: 12-144). At T0, 7 patients showed no cognitive deficits while 3 patients showed isolated cognitive deficits. At T1, 1 patient worsened developing multiple cognitive deficits from a normal condition. At T0 and T1, sleep efficiency was reduced, REM latency increased, NREM sleep stages 1-2 slightly increased. Comparisons between T1 and T0 showed a significant worsening in two tests of attention and no significant differences of VPSG parameters. No correlation was found between neuropsychological results and VPSG findings or RBD duration. Discussion and Conclusions: The majority of our patients do not show any cognitive deficits at T0 and T1, while isolated cognitive deficits are present in the remaining patients. Attention is the cognitive function which significantly worsened. Our data confirm the previous findings concerning the prevalence, type and the evolution of cognitive deficits in MSA. Regarding the developing of a condition of dementia, our data did not show a clear-cut diagnosis of dementia. We confirm a mild alteration of sleep structure. RBD duration does not correlate with neuropsychological findings.

Psychosocial correlates of rehabilitation from stroke: a longitudinal study

The general aim of this dissertation was to uncover the association between psychosocial factors and rehabilitation outcome after stroke. METHOD. A sample of patients with stroke (n=40) and their caregivers (n=36) were assessed at admission to and six months after discharge from rehabilitation hospital, using the following instruments: Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV, structured interview based on Diagnostic Criteria for Psychosomatic Research, Symptom Questionnaire, Psychosocial Index, Psychological Well-Being Scales, and Family Assessment Device. 40 subjects from the general population underwent the same psychological assessment. In addition, patients' functional status was measured using the Functional Independence Measure. RESULTS. Stroke survivors reported lower education and higher alcohol consumption than controls. No significant differences emerged between the two groups in the prevalence of psychiatric diagnoses or psychosomatic syndromes, however patients reported significantly higher levels of anxiety, depression, somatic symptoms, and lower autonomy than controls. Caregivers reported significantly higher scores in anxiety, depression, and somatic symptoms compared to normative data, while no impairments emerged in psychological well-being and family functioning. At six-month follow-up, in patients a significant decrease in smoking habit and an increase in DSM diagnoses were reported. Both stroke survivors and caregivers showed significant reductions in anxiety, with patients displaying also a decrease in somatic symptoms, an increase in stress and a deterioration in quality of life. Significant deteriorations in several aspects of family functioning was perceived only by patients. An association between patients' functional recovery in the cognitive domain and family behavior control emerged. For caregivers, family functioning significantly predicted hostility and somatic symptoms were associated with family affective involvement. CONCLUSIONS. These data highlight the utility in the Italian setting of the adoption of a psychosocial assessment and a family-systems approach in stroke rehabilitation, in order to development interventions properly targeted to the characteristics of patients and their family members.

Suicide in HIV-Infected Individuals and the General Population in Switzerland, 1988-2008

Objective High rates of suicide have been described in HIV-infected patients, but it is unclear to what extent the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) has affected suicide rates. The authors examined time trends and predictors of suicide in the pre-HAART (1988—1995) and HAART (1996—2008) eras in HIV-infected patients and the general population in Switzerland. Method The authors analyzed data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and the Swiss National Cohort, a longitudinal study of mortality in the Swiss general population. The authors calculated standardized mortality ratios comparing HIV-infected patients with the general population and used Poisson regression to identify risk factors for suicide. Results From 1988 to 2008, 15,275 patients were followed in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study for a median duration of 4.7 years. Of these, 150 died by suicide (rate 158.4 per 100,000 person-years). In men, standardized mortality ratios declined from 13.7 (95% CI=11.0—17.0) in the pre-HAART era to 3.5 (95% CI=2.5—4.8) in the late HAART era. In women, ratios declined from 11.6 (95% CI=6.4—20.9) to 5.7 (95% CI=3.2—10.3). In both periods, suicide rates tended to be higher in older patients, in men, in injection drug users, and in patients with advanced clinical stage of HIV illness. An increase in CD4 cell counts was associated with a reduced risk of suicide. Conclusions Suicide rates decreased significantly with the introduction of HAART, but they remain above the rate observed in the general population, and risk factors for suicide remain similar. HIV-infected patients remain an important target group for suicide prevention.

Risk factors promoting hypertensive crises: evidence from a longitudinal study

Background Current knowledge about risk factors promoting hypertensive crisis originates from retrospective data. Therefore, potential risk factors of hypertensive crisis were assessed in a prospective longitudinal study. Methods Eighty-nine patients of the medical outpatient unit at the University Hospital of Bern (Bern, Switzerland) with previously diagnosed hypertension participated in this study. At baseline, 33 potential risk factors were assessed. All patients were followed-up for the outcome of hypertensive crisis. Cox regression models were used to detect relationships between risk factors and hypertensive crisis (defined as acute rise of systolic blood pressure (BP) ≥200mmHg and/or diastolic BP ≥120mmHg). Results The mean duration of follow-up was 1.6 ± 0.3 years (range 1.0–2.4 years). Four patients (4.5%) were lost to follow-up. Thirteen patients (15.3%) experienced hypertensive crisis during follow-up. Several potential risk factors were significantly associated with hypertensive crisis: female sex, higher grades of obesity, the presence of a hypertensive or coronary heart disease, the presence of a somatoform disorder, a higher number of antihypertensive drugs, and nonadherence to medication. As measured by the hazard ratio, nonadherence was the most important factor associated with hypertensive crisis (hazard ratio 5.88, 95% confidence interval 1.59–21.77, P < 0.01). Conclusions This study identified several potential risk factors of hypertensive crisis. Results of this study are consistent with the hypothesis that improvement of medical adherence in antihypertensive therapy would help to prevent hypertensive crises. However, larger studies are needed to assess potential confounding, other risk factors and the possibility of interaction between predictors.

Mortality from road traffic accidents in Switzerland: longitudinal and spatial analyses

Road traffic accidents (RTA) are an important cause of premature death. We examined socio-demographic and geographical determinants of RTA mortality in Switzerland by linking 2000 census data to RTA mortality records 2000-2005 (ICD-10 codes V00-V99). Data from 5.5 million residents aged 18-94 years, 1744 study areas, and 1620 RTA deaths were analyzed, including 978 deaths (60.4%) in motor vehicle occupants, 254 (15.7%) in motorcyclists, 107 (6.6%) in cyclists, and 259 (16.0%) in pedestrians. Weibull survival models and Bayesian methods were used to calculate hazard ratios (HR), and standardized mortality ratios (SMR) across study areas. Adjusted HR comparing women with men ranged from 0.04 (95% CI 0.02-0.07) in motorcyclists to 0.43 (95% CI 0.32-0.56) in pedestrians. There was a u-shaped relationship with age in motor vehicle occupants and motorcyclists. In cyclists and pedestrians, mortality increased after age 55 years. Mortality was higher in individuals with primary education (HR 1.53; 95% CI 1.29-1.81), and higher in single (HR 1.24; 95% CI 1.05-1.46), widowed (HR 1.31; 95% CI 1.05-1.65) and divorced individuals (HR 1.62; 95% CI 1.33-1.97), compared to persons with tertiary education or married persons. The association with education was particularly strong for pedestrians (HR 1.87; 95% CI 1.20-2.91). RTA mortality increased with decreasing population density of study areas for motor vehicle occupants (test for trend p<0.0001) and motorcyclists (p=0.0021) but not for cyclists (p=0.39) or pedestrians (p=0.29). SMR standardized for socio-demographic and geographical variables ranged from 82 to 190. Prevention efforts should aim to reduce inequities across socio-demographic and educational groups, and across geographical areas, with interventions targeted at high-risk groups and areas, and different traffic users, including pedestrians.

The Effects of Airbags and Seatbelts on Occupant Injury in Longitudinal Barrier Crashes

Introduction: Longitudinal barriers, such as guardrails, are designed to prevent a vehicle that leaves the roadway from impacting a more dangerous object while minimizing the risk of injury to the vehicle occupants. Current full-scale test procedures for these devices do not consider the effect of occupant restraints such as seatbelts and airbags. The purpose of this study was to determine the extent to which restraints are used or deployed in longitudinal barrier collisions and their subsequent effect on occupant injury. Methods: Binary logistic regression models were generated to predict occupant injury risk using data from the National Automotive Sampling System / Crashworthiness Data System from 1997 through 2007. Results: In tow-away longitudinal barrier crashes, airbag deployment rates were 70% for airbag-equipped vehicles. Compared with unbelted occupants without an airbag available, seat belt restrained occupants with an airbag available had a dramatically decreased risk of receiving a serious (MAIS 3+) injury (odds-ratio (OR)=0.03; 95% CI: 0.004- 0.24). A similar decrease was observed among those restrained by seat belts, but without an airbag available (OR=0.03; 95% CI: 0.001- 0.79). No significant differences in risk of serious injuries were observed between unbelted occupants with an airbag available compared with unbelted occupants without an airbag available (OR=0.53; 95% CI=0.10-2.68). Impact on Industry: This study refutes the perception in the roadside safety community that airbags rarely deploy in frontal barrier crashes, and suggests that current longitudinal barrier occupant risk criteria may over-estimate injury potential for restrained occupants involved in a longitudinal barrier crash.