A Bayesian approach to assess interaction between known risk factors: The risk of lung cancer from exposure to asbestos and smoking

We review the literature on the combined effect of asbestos exposure and smoking on lung cancer, and explore a Bayesian approach to assess evidence of interaction. Previous approaches have focussed on separate tests for an additive or multiplicative relation. We extend these approaches by exploring the strength of evidence for either relation using approaches which allow the data to choose between both models. We then compare the different approaches.

Numerical modelling of light gauge cold-formed steel compression members subjected to distortional buckling at elevated temperatures

Fire safety design of building structures has received greater attention in recent times due to continuing loss of properties and lives during fires. However, fire performance of light gauge cold-formed steel structures is not well understood despite its increased usage in buildings. Cold-formed steel compression members are susceptible to various buckling modes such as local and distortional buckling and their ultimate strength behaviour is governed by these buckling modes. Therefore a research project based on experimental and numerical studies was undertaken to investigate the distortional buckling behaviour of light gauge cold-formed steel compression members under simulated fire conditions. Lipped channel sections with and without additional lips were selected with three thicknesses of 0.6, 0.8, and 0.95 mm and both low and high strength steels (G250 and G550 steels). More than 150 compression tests were undertaken first at ambient and elevated temperatures. Finite element models of the tested compression members were then developed by including the degradation of mechanical properties with increasing temperatures. Comparison of finite element analysis and experimental results showed that the developed finite element models were capable of simulating the distortional buckling and strength behaviour at ambient and elevated temperatures up to 800 °C. The validated model was used to determine the effects of mechanical properties, geometric imperfections and residual stresses on the distortional buckling behaviour and strength of cold-formed steel columns. This paper presents the details of the numerical study and the results. It demonstrated the importance of using accurate mechanical properties at elevated temperatures in order to obtain reliable strength characteristics of cold-formed steel columns under fire conditions.

Exposure to particles from laser printers operating within office workplaces

While recent research has provided valuable information as to the composition of laser printer particles, their formation mechanisms, and explained why some printers are emitters whilst others are low emitters, fundamental questions relating to the potential exposure of office workers remained unanswered. In particular, (i) what impact does the operation of laser printers have on the background particle number concentration (PNC) of an office environment over the duration of a typical working day?; (ii) what is the airborne particle exposure to office workers in the vicinity of laser printers; (iii) what influence does the office ventilation have upon the transport and concentration of particles?; (iv) is there a need to control the generation of, and/or transport of particles arising from the operation of laser printers within an office environment?; (v) what instrumentation and methodology is relevant for characterising such particles within an office location? We present experimental evidence on printer temporal and spatial PNC during the operation of 107 laser printers within open plan offices of five buildings. We show for the first time that the eight-hour time-weighted average printer particle exposure is significantly less than the eight-hour time-weighted local background particle exposure, but that peak printer particle exposure can be greater than two orders of magnitude higher than local background particle exposure. The particle size range is predominantly ultrafine (< 100nm diameter). In addition we have established that office workers are constantly exposed to non-printer derived particle concentrations, with up to an order of magnitude difference in such exposure amongst offices, and propose that such exposure be controlled along with exposure to printer derived particles. We also propose, for the first time, that peak particle reference values be calculated for each office area analogous to the criteria used in Australia and elsewhere for evaluating exposure excursion above occupational hazardous chemical exposure standards. A universal peak particle reference value of 2.0 x 104 particles cm-3 has been proposed.

The impact of nonlinear exposure risk relationships on seasonal time series data: modelling danish neonatal birth anthropometric data

Background Birth weight and length have seasonal fluctuations. Previous analyses of birth weight by latitude effects identified seemingly contradictory results, showing both 6 and 12 monthly periodicities in weight. The aims of this paper are twofold: (a) to explore seasonal patterns in a large, Danish Medical Birth Register, and (b) to explore models based on seasonal exposures and a non-linear exposure-risk relationship. Methods Birth weight and birth lengths on over 1.5 million Danish singleton, live births were examined for seasonality. We modelled seasonal patterns based on linear, U- and J-shaped exposure-risk relationships. We then added an extra layer of complexity by modelling weighted population-based exposure patterns. Results The Danish data showed clear seasonal fluctuations for both birth weight and birth length. A bimodal model best fits the data, however the amplitude of the 6 and 12 month peaks changed over time. In the modelling exercises, U- and J-shaped exposure-risk relationships generate time series with both 6 and 12 month periodicities. Changing the weightings of the population exposure risks result in unexpected properties. A J-shaped exposure-risk relationship with a diminishing population exposure over time fitted the observed seasonal pattern in the Danish birth weight data. Conclusion In keeping with many other studies, Danish birth anthropometric data show complex and shifting seasonal patterns. We speculate that annual periodicities with non-linear exposure-risk models may underlie these findings. Understanding the nature of seasonal fluctuations can help generate candidate exposures.