The O stars in the VLT-FLAMES Tarantula Survey

The VLT-FLAMES Tarantula Survey (VFTS) has secured mid-resolution spectra of over 300 O-type stars in the 30 Doradus region of the Large Magellanic Cloud. A homogeneous analysis of such a large sample requires automated techniques, an approach that will also be needed for the upcoming analysis of the Gaia surveys of the Northern and Southern Hemisphere supplementing the Gaia measurements. We point out the importance of Gaia for the study of O stars, summarize the O star science case of VFTS and present a test of the automated modeling technique using synthetically generated data. This method employs a genetic algorithm based optimization technique in combination with fastwind model atmospheres. The method is found to be robust and able to recover the main photospheric parameters accurately. Precise wind parameters can be obtained as well, however, as expected, for dwarf stars the rate of acceleration of the ow is poorly constrained.

Formation of helical ion chains

We study the nonequilibrium dynamics of the linear to zigzag structural phase transition exhibited by an ion chain confined in a trap with periodic boundary conditions. The transition is driven by reducing the transverse confinement at a finite quench rate, which can be accurately controlled. This results in the formation of zigzag domains oriented along different transverse planes. The twists between different domains can be stabilized by the topology of the trap and under laser cooling the system has a chance to relax to a helical chain with nonzero winding number. Molecular dynamics simulations are used to obtain a large sample of possible trajectories for different quench rates. The scaling of the average winding number with different quench rates is compared to the prediction of the Kibble-Zurek theory, and a good quantitative agreement is found.

Pleiotropic Analysis of Lung Cancer and Blood Triglycerides

Epidemiologically related traits may share genetic risk factors, and pleiotropic analysis could identify individual loci associated with these traits. Because of their shared epidemiological associations, we conducted pleiotropic analysis of genome-wide association studies of lung cancer (12 160 lung cancer case patients and 16 838 control subjects) and cardiovascular disease risk factors (blood lipids from 188 577 subjects, type 2 diabetes from 148 821 subjects, body mass index from 123 865 subjects, and smoking phenotypes from 74 053 subjects). We found that 6p22.1 (rs6904596, ZNF184) was associated with both lung cancer (P = 5.50x10(-6)) and blood triglycerides (P = 1.39x10(-5)). We replicated the association in 6097 lung cancer case patients and 204 657 control subjects (P = 2.40 × 10(-4)) and in 71 113 subjects with triglycerides data (P = .01). rs6904596 reached genome-wide significance in lung cancer meta-analysis (odds ratio = 1.15, 95% confidence interval = 1.10 to 1.21 ,: Pcombined = 5.20x10(-9)). The large sample size provided by the lipid GWAS data and the shared genetic risk factors between the two traits contributed to the uncovering of a hitherto unidentified genetic locus for lung cancer.

Safety Assessment Tool for Construction Zone Work Phasing Plans, 2016

The Highway Safety Manual (HSM) is the compilation of national safety research that provides quantitative methods for analyzing highway safety. The HSM presents crash modification functions related to freeway work zone characteristics such as work zone duration and length. These crash modification functions were based on freeway work zones with high traffic volumes in California. When the HSM-referenced model was calibrated for Missouri, the value was 3.78, which is not ideal since it is significantly larger than 1. Therefore, new models were developed in this study using Missouri data to capture geographical, driver behavior, and other factors in the Midwest. Also, new models for expressway and rural two-lane work zones that barely were studied in the literature were developed. A large sample of 20,837 freeway, 8,993 expressway, and 64,476 rural two-lane work zones in Missouri was analyzed to derive 15 work zone crash prediction models. The most appropriate samples of 1,546 freeway, 1,189 expressway, and 6,095 rural two-lane work zones longer than 0.1 mile and with a duration of greater than 10 days were used to make eight, four, and three models, respectively. A challenging question for practitioners is always how to use crash prediction models to make the best estimation of work zone crash count. To solve this problem, a user-friendly software tool was developed in a spreadsheet format to predict work zone crashes based on work zone characteristics. This software selects the best model, estimates the work zone crashes by severity, and converts them to monetary values using standard crash estimates. This study also included a survey of departments of transportation (DOTs), Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) representatives, and contractors to assess the current state of the practice regarding work zone safety. The survey results indicate that many agencies look at work zone safety informally using engineering judgment. Respondents indicated that they would like a tool that could help them to balance work zone safety across projects by looking at crashes and user costs.

Macroeconomic Risk Factors and the Role of Mispriced Credit in the Returns from International Real Estate Securities

The benefits of diversification from international real estate securities are generally well established. However, the drivers of international real estate securities returns are insufficiently understood. We jointly examine the empirical implications of three major international asset pricing models that account for broad macroeconomic risk factors. In addition, we develop the hypothesis that an indicator of mispriced credit is significant in explaining the time series variation in international real estate securities returns. We employ the returns generated by a large sample of firms from 20 countries over the period 1999 to 2011 to test our hypothesis. We find support for the predictions of the major international asset pricing models. We also find evidence in favour of our hypothesised link between local credit conditions and the performance of international real estate securities.

Evaluating Form and Functionality of Pay-For-Performance Plans: The Relative Incentive and Sorting Effects of Merit Pay, Bonuses, and Long-Term Incentives

Using two-year longitudinal data from a large sample of US employees from a service-related organization, the present study investigates the relative effects of three forms of pay-for-performance plans on employees’ job performance (incentive effects) and voluntary turnover (sorting effects). The study differentiates between three forms of pay: merit pay, individual-based bonuses, and long-term incentives. By definition, these PFP plans have different structural elements that distinguish them from each other (i.e., pay plan form) and different characteristics (functionality), such as the degree to which pay and performance are linked and the size of the rewards, which can vary both within and across plan types. Our results provide evidence that merit raises have larger incentive and sorting effects than bonuses and long-term incentives in multi-PFP plan environments where the three PFP plans are operating simultaneously. Only merit pay has both incentive and sorting effects among the three PFP plans. The implications for the PFP-related theory, as well as for the design and implementation of PFP plans, are discussed.

Adverse Childhood Life Events and Postpartum Psychosis in Bipolar Disorder

Background Women with bipolar disorder are at increased risk of postpartum psychosis. Adverse childhood life events have been associated with depression in the postpartum period, but have been little studied in relation to postpartum psychosis. In this study we investigated whether adverse childhood life events are associated with postpartum psychosis in a large sample of women with bipolar I disorder. Methods Participants were 432 parous women with DSM-IV bipolar I disorder recruited into the Bipolar Disorder Research Network (www.BDRN.org). Diagnoses and lifetime psychopathology, including perinatal episodes, were obtained via a semi-structured interview (Schedules for Clinical Assessment in Neuropsychiatry; Wing et al., 1990) and case-notes. Adverse childhood life events were assessed via self-report and case-notes, and compared between women with postpartum psychosis (n=208) and those without a lifetime history of perinatal mood episodes (n=224). Results There was no significant difference in the rate of any adverse childhood life event, including childhood sexual abuse, or in the total number of adverse childhood life events between women who experienced postpartum psychosis and those without a lifetime history of perinatal mood episodes, even after controlling for demographic and clinical differences between the groups. Limitations Adverse childhood life events were assessed in adulthood and therefore may be subject to recall errors. Conclusions We found no evidence for an association between adverse childhood life events and the occurrence of postpartum psychosis. Our data suggest that, unlike postpartum depression, childhood adversity does not play a significant role in the triggering of postpartum psychosis in women with bipolar disorder.

Integrating functional connectivity and climate change in the design of protected area networks

Le rapide déclin actuel de la biodiversité est inquiétant et les activités humaines en sont la cause directe. De nombreuses aires protégées ont été mises en place pour contrer cette perte de biodiversité. Afin de maximiser leur efficacité, l’amélioration de la connectivité fonctionnelle entre elles est requise. Les changements climatiques perturbent actuellement les conditions environnementales de façon globale. C’est une menace pour la biodiversité qui n’a pas souvent été intégrée lors de la mise en place des aires protégées, jusqu’à récemment. Le mouvement des espèces, et donc la connectivité fonctionnelle du paysage, est impacté par les changements climatiques et des études ont montré qu’améliorer la connectivité fonctionnelle entre les aires protégées aiderait les espèces à faire face aux impacts des changements climatiques. Ma thèse présente une méthode pour concevoir des réseaux d’aires protégées tout en tenant compte des changements climatiques et de la connectivité fonctionnelle. Mon aire d’étude est la région de la Gaspésie au Québec (Canada). La population en voie de disparition de caribou de la Gaspésie-Atlantique (Rangifer tarandus caribou) a été utilisée comme espèce focale pour définir la connectivité fonctionnelle. Cette petite population subit un déclin continu dû à la prédation et la modification de son habitat, et les changements climatiques pourraient devenir une menace supplémentaire. J’ai d’abord construit un modèle individu-centré spatialement explicite pour expliquer et simuler le mouvement du caribou. J’ai utilisé les données VHF éparses de la population de caribou et une stratégie de modélisation patron-orienté pour paramétrer et sélectionner la meilleure hypothèse de mouvement. Mon meilleur modèle a reproduit la plupart des patrons de mouvement définis avec les données observées. Ce modèle fournit une meilleure compréhension des moteurs du mouvement du caribou de la Gaspésie-Atlantique, ainsi qu’une estimation spatiale de son utilisation du paysage dans la région. J’ai conclu que les données éparses étaient suffisantes pour ajuster un modèle individu-centré lorsqu’utilisé avec une modélisation patron-orienté. Ensuite, j’ai estimé l’impact des changements climatiques et de différentes actions de conservation sur le potentiel de mouvement du caribou. J’ai utilisé le modèle individu-centré pour simuler le mouvement du caribou dans des paysages hypothétiques représentant différents scénarios de changements climatiques et d’actions de conservation. Les actions de conservation représentaient la mise en place de nouvelles aires protégées en Gaspésie, comme définies par le scénario proposé par le gouvernement du Québec, ainsi que la restauration de routes secondaires à l’intérieur des aires protégées. Les impacts des changements climatiques sur la végétation, comme définis dans mes scénarios, ont réduit le potentiel de mouvement du caribou. La restauration des routes était capable d’atténuer ces effets négatifs, contrairement à la mise en place des nouvelles aires protégées. Enfin, j’ai présenté une méthode pour concevoir des réseaux d’aires protégées efficaces et j’ai proposé des nouvelles aires protégées à mettre en place en Gaspésie afin de protéger la biodiversité sur le long terme. J’ai créé de nombreux scénarios de réseaux d’aires protégées en étendant le réseau actuel pour protéger 12% du territoire. J’ai calculé la représentativité écologique et deux mesures de connectivité fonctionnelle sur le long terme pour chaque réseau. Les mesures de connectivité fonctionnelle représentaient l’accès général aux aires protégées pour le caribou de la Gaspésie-Atlantique ainsi que son potentiel de mouvement à l’intérieur. J’ai utilisé les estimations de potentiel de mouvement pour la période de temps actuelle ainsi que pour le futur sous différents scénarios de changements climatiques pour représenter la connectivité fonctionnelle sur le long terme. Le réseau d’aires protégées que j’ai proposé était le scénario qui maximisait le compromis entre les trois caractéristiques de réseau calculées. Dans cette thèse, j’ai expliqué et prédit le mouvement du caribou de la Gaspésie-Atlantique sous différentes conditions environnementales, notamment des paysages impactés par les changements climatiques. Ces résultats m’ont aidée à définir un réseau d’aires protégées à mettre en place en Gaspésie pour protéger le caribou au cours du temps. Je crois que cette thèse apporte de nouvelles connaissances sur le comportement de mouvement du caribou de la Gaspésie-Atlantique, ainsi que sur les actions de conservation qui peuvent être prises en Gaspésie afin d’améliorer la protection du caribou et de celle d’autres espèces. Je crois que la méthode présentée peut être applicable à d’autres écosystèmes aux caractéristiques et besoins similaires.

Epilepsy in Bipolar Disorder: Impact on Clinical Features, Course and Outcome

Background and Aims: It is well recognized that mood disorders and epilepsy commonly co-occur. However, the relationship between epilepsy and the clinical features and course of illness in bipolar disorder (BD) is currently unknown. Here we explore the rate of epilepsy within a large sample of individuals with BD and examine bipolar illness characteristics according to the presence or absence of epilepsy. Methods: 1596 participants recruited to the Bipolar Disorder Research Network; a well-defined sample of UK subjects with a diagnosis of BD, completed a self-report questionnaire to assess lifetime history of epilepsy (Ottman et al., 2010). A subset of participants (n = 29) completed a telephone interview assessment to determine expert-confirmed epilepsy status. Lifetime clinical characteristics of illness were compared between BD subjects with and without a history of epilepsy. Results: 127 individuals (8%) screened positively for lifetime history of epilepsy. Bipolar subjects with epilepsy experienced higher rates of: suicide attempt (64.2% vs. 47.4%, p = 0.000367); panic disorder (29.6% vs. 16.1%, p = 0.001); phobias (13.6% vs. 5.7%, 0.004); alcohol abuse (18.6% vs. 10.6%, p = 0.017); and other substance abuse (10.2% vs. 4%, p = 0.009). History of suicide attempt (OR = 1.79, p = 0.013) remained significant within a multivariate model. Similar trends were observed within bipolar subjects with well-defined, expert-confirmed epilepsy (n = 29). Conclusions: Results demonstrate an increased rate of self-reported epilepsy in the BD sample, compared to the general population, and suggest differences in the clinical course of BD according to the presence of epilepsy. Comorbid epilepsy within BD may provide an attractive opportunity for subcategorising for future genetic studies, potentially identifying common underlying mechanisms.

Autistic and Schizotypal Traits and Global Functioning in Bipolar I Disorder

Objective: To determine the expression of autistic and positive schizotypal traits in a large sample of adults with bipolar I disorder (BD-I), and the effect of co-occurring autistic and positive schizotypal traits on global functioning in BD-I. Method: Autistic and positive schizotypal traits were self-assessed in 797 individuals with BD-I recruited by the Bipolar Disorder Research Network. Differences in global functioning (rated using the Global Assessment Scale) during lifetime worst depressive and manic episodes (GASD and GASM respectively) were calculated in groups with high/low autistic and positive schizotypal traits. Regression analyses assessed the interactive effect of autistic and positive schizotypal traits on global functioning. Results: 47.2% (CI=43.7-50.7%) showed clinically significant levels of autistic traits, and 23.22% (95% CI=20.29-26.14) showed clinically significant levels of positive schizotypal traits. In the worst episode of mania, the high autistic, high positive schizotypal group had better global functioning compared to the other groups. Individual differences analyses showed that high levels of co-occurring traits were associated with better global functioning in both mood states. Limitations: Autistic and schizotypal traits were assessed using self-rated questionnaires. Conclusions: Expression of autistic and schizotypal traits in adults with BD-I is prevalent, and may be important to predict illness aetiology, prognosis, and diagnostic practices in this population. Future work should focus on replicating these findings in independent samples, and on the biological and/or psychosocial mechanisms underlying better global functioning in those who have high levels of both autistic and positive schizotypal traits.

Análise experimental do efeito da diversificação em carteiras de ações: a relação entre risco e quantidade de ativos sob a ótica da estratégia ingênua

The objective is to analyze the relationship between risk and number of stocks of a portfolio for an individual investor when stocks are chosen by "naive strategy". For this, we carried out an experiment in which individuals select actions to reproduce this relationship. 126 participants were informed that the risk of first choice would be an asset average of all standard deviations of the portfolios consist of a single asset, and the same procedure should be used for portfolios composed of two, three and so on, up to 30 actions . They selected the assets they want in their portfolios without the support of a financial analysis. For comparison we also tested a hypothetical simulation of 126 investors who selected shares the same universe, through a random number generator. Thus, each real participant is compensated for random hypothetical investor facing the same opportunity. Patterns were observed in the portfolios of individual participants, characterizing the curves for the components of the samples. Because these groupings are somewhat arbitrary, it was used a more objective measure of behavior: a simple linear regression for each participant, in order to predict the variance of the portfolio depending on the number of assets. In addition, we conducted a pooled regression on all observations by analyzing cross-section. The result of pattern occurs on average but not for most individuals, many of which effectively "de-diversify" when adding seemingly random bonds. Furthermore, the results are slightly worse using a random number generator. This finding challenges the belief that only a small number of titles is necessary for diversification and shows that there is only applicable to a large sample. The implications are important since many individual investors holding few stocks in their portfolios

Autistic and Schizotypal Traits and Global Functioning in Bipolar Disorder

Background and Aims To determine the expression of autistic and positive schizotypal traits in a large sample of adults with bipolar disorder (BD), and the effect of co-occurring autistic and positive schizotypal traits on global functioning in BD. Methods Autistic and positive schizotypal traits were assessed in 797 individuals with BD recruited by the Bipolar Disorder Research Network (BDRN), using the Autism-Spectrum Quotient and Kings Schizotypy Questionnaire (KSQ), respectively. Differences in global functioning (rated using the Global Assessment Scale) during lifetime worst depressive and manic episodes (GASD and GASM respectively) were calculated in groups with high/low autistic and positive schizotypal traits. Regression analyses assessed the interactive effect of autistic and positive schizotypal traits on global functioning. Results 47.2% (CI = 43.7–50.7%) showed clinically significant levels of autistic traits. Mean of sample on the KSQ-Positive scale was 11.98 (95% CI: 11.33–12.62). In the worst episode of mania, the high autistic, high positive schizotypal group had better global functioning than the low autistic, low positive schizotypal group (mean difference = 3.72, p = 0.004). High levels of co-occurring traits were associated with better global functioning in both mood states in individuals with a history of psychosis (GASM: p < 0.001; GASD: p = 0.055). Conclusions Expression of autistic and schizotypal traits in adults with BD is prevalent, and may be important to predict course of illness, prognosis, and in devising individualised therapies. Future work should focus on replicating these findings in independent samples, and on the biological and/or psychosocial mechanisms underlying better global functioning in those who have high levels of both autistic and positive schizotypal traits.

Major depression: does gender influence the risk of recurrence? A systematic review

Background and Objectives: A woman's lifetime risk of major depression is almost twice as high as that of a man. Major depression is associated with a high risk of recurrence, but the question of a differential risk of recurrence between genders is unclear. Based on a systematic review of the literature, this paper attempts to answer the following question: "Following a major depressive episode, do women and men have the same risk of recurrence?". Methods: We prospectively collected all studies from the period 2005-2014 where the variable gender was considered a potential predictor of recurrence. The database has also been expanded with articles cited in the bibliography of the prospectively collected articles and with a PubMed Database search covering the period January 2005-August 2014. Results: Of the prospective studies (n = 98), most found no influence of gender on recurrence risk, but a minority, mostly large sample studies, found that female gender is a statistically significant risk factor for recurrence. Results suggest a probable female-to-male relative risk of recurrence between 1.0 and 1.2. Given the heterogeneity of the studies (length of follow-up, populations, nature of the studies, choice of dependant variables, statistical methods, and available data) no meta-analyses were performed. There are many interfering variables (age of onset, subchronic evolution, treatments, etc.) that can influence the results of prospective studies. Conclusions: Women probably have a slightly higher risk of recurrence after a major depressive episode than men. This increased risk is much smaller than women's much higher lifetime risk of depression.

Statistical modeling of protein lysate array data

The protein lysate array is an emerging technology for quantifying the protein concentration ratios in multiple biological samples. It is gaining popularity, and has the potential to answer questions about post-translational modifications and protein pathway relationships. Statistical inference for a parametric quantification procedure has been inadequately addressed in the literature, mainly due to two challenges: the increasing dimension of the parameter space and the need to account for dependence in the data. Each chapter of this thesis addresses one of these issues. In Chapter 1, an introduction to the protein lysate array quantification is presented, followed by the motivations and goals for this thesis work. In Chapter 2, we develop a multi-step procedure for the Sigmoidal models, ensuring consistent estimation of the concentration level with full asymptotic efficiency. The results obtained in this chapter justify inferential procedures based on large-sample approximations. Simulation studies and real data analysis are used to illustrate the performance of the proposed method in finite-samples. The multi-step procedure is simpler in both theory and computation than the single-step least squares method that has been used in current practice. In Chapter 3, we introduce a new model to account for the dependence structure of the errors by a nonlinear mixed effects model. We consider a method to approximate the maximum likelihood estimator of all the parameters. Using the simulation studies on various error structures, we show that for data with non-i.i.d. errors the proposed method leads to more accurate estimates and better confidence intervals than the existing single-step least squares method.

Equality of opportunity and equality of outcome

The report on the findings of extensive empirical research on equality of educational opportunities carried out in the US on a very large sample of public schools by Coleman and his colleagues has had a major impact on education policy and has given rise to a large amount of research and various interpretations. However, as some interpreters have highlighted, even more important than the findings of the survey themselves has been Coleman’s redefinition of equality of opportunity, abandoning the then prevailing conception of equality of educational opportunities as equality of starting points and replacing it with the concept of equality of educational opportunities as equality of educational outcomes. The question is, therefore, whether equality of outcomes really is one of the two types of equality of opportunity. The purpose of the present article is to show that equality of opportunity and equality of outcomes are two different types of equality. If they are different, the interpretation that Coleman has redefined the concept of “equality of educational opportunity” turns out to be incorrect. (DIPF/Orig.)