Development and evaluation of neural network freeway incident detection models using field data

This paper discusses a multi-layer feedforward (MLF) neural network incident detection model that was developed and evaluated using field data. In contrast to published neural network incident detection models which relied on simulated or limited field data for model development and testing, the model described in this paper was trained and tested on a real-world data set of 100 incidents. The model uses speed, flow and occupancy data measured at dual stations, averaged across all lanes and only from time interval t. The off-line performance of the model is reported under both incident and non-incident conditions. The incident detection performance of the model is reported based on a validation-test data set of 40 incidents that were independent of the 60 incidents used for training. The false alarm rates of the model are evaluated based on non-incident data that were collected from a freeway section which was video-taped for a period of 33 days. A comparative evaluation between the neural network model and the incident detection model in operation on Melbourne's freeways is also presented. The results of the comparative performance evaluation clearly demonstrate the substantial improvement in incident detection performance obtained by the neural network model. The paper also presents additional results that demonstrate how improvements in model performance can be achieved using variable decision thresholds. Finally, the model's fault-tolerance under conditions of corrupt or missing data is investigated and the impact of loop detector failure/malfunction on the performance of the trained model is evaluated and discussed. The results presented in this paper provide a comprehensive evaluation of the developed model and confirm that neural network models can provide fast and reliable incident detection on freeways. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Familial partial epilepsy with variable foci: A new partial epilepsy syndrome with suggestion of linkage to chromosome 2

Familial partial epilepsy with variable foci (FPEVF) joins the recently recognized group of inherited partial epilepsies. We describe an Australian family with 10 individuals with partial seizures over four generations. Detailed electroclinical studies were performed on all affected and 17 clinically unaffected family members. The striking finding was that the clinical features of the seizures and interictal electroencephalographic foci differed among family members and included frontal, temporal, occipital, and centroparietal seizures. Mean age of seizure onset was 13 years (range, 0.75-43 years). Two individuals without seizures had epileptiform abnormalities on electroencephalographic studies. Penetrance of seizures was 62%. A genome-wide search failed to demonstrate definitive linkage, but a suggestion of linkage was found on chromosome 2q with a LOD score of 2.74 at recombination fraction of zero with the marker D2S133. FPEVF differs from the other inherited partial epilepsies where partial seizures in different family members are clinically similar. The inherited nature of this new syndrome may be overlooked because of relatively low penetrance and because of the variability in age at onset and electroclinical features between affected family members.

Preparatory trunk motion accompanies rapid upper limb movement

Evaluation of trunk movements, trunk muscle activation, intra-abdominal pressure and displacement of centres of pressure and mass was undertaken to determine whether trunk orientation is a controlled variable prior to and during rapid bilateral movement of the upper limbs. Standing subjects performed rapid bilateral symmetrical upper limb movements in three directions (flexion, abduction and extension). The results indicated a small (0.4-3.3 degrees) but consistent initial angular displacement between the segments of the trunk in a direction opposite to that produced by the reactive moments resulting from limb movement. Phasic activation of superficial trunk muscles was consistent with this pattern of preparatory motion and with the direction of motion of the centre of mass. In contrast, activation of the deep abdominal muscles was independent of the direction of limb motion, suggesting a non-direction specific contribution to spinal stability. The results support the opinion that feedforward postural responses result in trunk movements, and that orientation of the trunk and centre of mass are both controlled variables in relation to rapid limb movements.

Outbreaks of pink wax scale, Ceroplastes rubens Maskell (Hemiptera : Coccidae), on umbrella trees in south-eastern Queensland: Patterns of parasitisation

The degree and distribution of parasitisation in relation to densities of pink wax scale, Ceroplastes rubens Maskell, on umbrella trees, Schefflera actinophylla (Endl.), in south-eastern Queensland were investigated to determine whether scale outbreaks could be attributed, in part, to low levels of parasitisation. Rates of parasitisation were independent of or inversely dependent on host density, and highly variable, especially at low densities. The absence of density dependent parasitisation may occur as a result of: (i) non-aggregation by parasitoids; (ii) aggregation by parasitoids where parasitisation is limited by intrinsic or extrinsic factors; and/or (iii) high rates of hyperparasitisation.

Variable temperature and pressure study of the aquation reactions of cobalt(III) and chromium(III) penta- and tetra-amines

Preparation of a series of specific penta- and tetra-amine derivatives of Co-III and Cr-III with a neutral leaving ligand has been carried out in order to accomplish a fine tuning of the associativeness/dissociativeness of their substitution reactions. Spontaneous aquation reactions of the neutral ligands have been studied at variable temperature and pressure. Although rate constants and thermal activation parameters show an important degree of scatter, the values determined for the activation volumes of the substitution process illustrate the mechanistic fine tuning that may be achieved for these reactions. In all cases, in the absence of important steric constraints in the molecule, electronic inductive effects seem to be the most important factor accounting for the dissociative shifts observed both for pentaamine (i.e.Delta V double dagger=+4.0 or +14.0 cm(3) mol(-1) and +5.2 or +16.5 cm(3) mol(-1) for the aquation of cis- or trans-[Co(MeNH2)(NH3)(4)(DMF)](3+) and cis- or trans-[CoL15(DMF)](3+) respectively, where L-15 represents a pentaamine macrocyclic ligand), and tetraamine systems (i.e.Delta V double dagger=+4.1 or +8.4 cm(3) mol(-1) and -10.8 or -7.4 cm(3) mol(-1) for the aquation of cis-[Co(NH3)(4)Cl(DMAC)](2+) (DMAC=dimethylacetamide) or cis-[Co(en)(2)Cl(DMAC)](2+) and cis-[Cr(NH3)(4)Cl(DMF)](2+) or cis -[Cr(en)(2)Cl(DMF)](2+)). From the results, clear evidence is obtained which indicates that, only when the situation is borderline I-a/I-d, or the steric demands are increased dramatically, dissociative shifts are observed; in all other cases electronic inductive effects seem to be dominant for such a tuning of the substitution process.

The role of colour in signalling and male choice in the agamid lizard Ctenophorus ornatus

Bright coloration and complex visual displays are frequent and well described in many lizard families. Reflectance spectrometry which extends into the ultraviolet (UV) allows measurement of such coloration independent of our visual system. We examined the role of colour in signalling and mate choice in the agamid lizard Ctenophorus ornatus. We found that throat reflectance strongly contrasted against the granite background of the lizards' habitat. The throat may act as a signal via the head-bobbing and push-up displays of C. ornatus. Dorsal coloration provided camouflage against the granite background, particularly in females. C. ornatus was sexually dichromatic for all traits examined including throat UV reflectance which is beyond human visual perception. Female throats were highly variable in spectral reflectance and males preferred females with higher throat chroma between 370 and 400 nm. However, female throat UV chroma is strongly correlated to both throat brightness and chest UV chroma and males may choose females on a combination of these colour variables. There was no evidence that female throat or chest coloration was an indicator of female quality. However, female brightness significantly predicted a female's laying date and, thus, may signal receptivity. One function of visual display in this species appears to be intersexual signalling, resulting in male choice of females.

Variable expression of mental retardation, autism, seizures, and dystonic hand movements in two families with an identical ARX gene mutation

Two families, originally diagnosed as having nonsyndromic X-linked mental retardation (NSXLMR), were reviewed when it was shown that they had a 24-bp duplication (428-45 1dup(24bp)) in the ARX gene [Stromme et al., 2002: Nat Genet 30:441-445]. This same duplication had also been found in three other families: one with X-linked infantile spasms and hypsarrhythmia (X-linked West syndrome, MIM 308350) and two with XLMR and dystonic movements of the hands (Partington syndrome, MIM 309510). On review, manifestations of both West and Partington syndromes were found in some individuals from both families. In addition, it was found that one individual had autism and two had autistic behavior, one of whom had epilepsy. The degree of mental retardation ranged from mild to severe. A GCG trinucleotide expansion (GCG)10+7 and a deletion of 1,517 by in the ARX gene have also been found in association with the West syndrome, and a missense mutation (1058C >T) in a family with a newly recognized form of myoclonic epilepsy, severe mental retardation, and spastic paraplegia [Scheffer et al., 2002: Neurology, in press]. Evidently all these disorders are expressions of mutations in the same gene. It remains to be seen what proportions of patients with infantile spasms, focal dystonia, autism, epilepsy, and nonsyndromic mental retardation are accounted for by mutations in the ARX gene. (C) 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Myb-binding Protein 1a is a Nucleocytoplasmic Shuttling Protein that Utilizes CRM1-dependent and Independent Nuclear Export Pathways

Myb-binding protein 1a (Mybbp1a) is a novel nuclear protein localized predominantly, but not exclusively, in nucleoli. Although initially isolated as a c-Myb interacting protein, Mybbp1a is expressed ubiquitously, associates with a number of different transcription factors, and may play a role in both RNA polymerase I- and II-mediated transcriptional regulation. However, its precise function remains unclear. In this study we show that Mybbp1a is a nucleocytoplasmic shuttling protein and investigate the mechanisms responsible for both nuclear import and export. The carboxyl terminus of Mybbp1a, which contains seven short basic amino acid repeat sequences, is responsible for both nuclear and nucleolar localization, and this activity can be transferred to a heterologous protein. Deletion mapping demonstrated that these repeat sequences appear to act incrementally, with successive deletions resulting in a corresponding increase in the proportion of protein localized in the cytoplasm. Glutathione S-transferase pulldown experiments showed that the nuclear receptor importin-alpha/beta mediates Mybbp1a nuclear import. Interspecies heterokaryons were used to demonstrate that Mybbp1a was capable of shuttling between the nucleus and the cytoplasm. Deletion analysis and in vivo export studies using a heterologous assay system identified several nuclear export sequences which facilitate Mybbp1a nuclear export of Mybbp1a by CRM1-dependent and -independent pathways. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Extrinsic versus intrinsic factors in the decline and extinction of Australian marsupials

Recent attempts to explain the susceptibility of vertebrates to declines worldwide have largely focused on intrinsic factors such as body size, reproductive potential, ecological specialization, geographical range and phylogenetic longevity. Here, we use a database of 145 Australian marsupial species to test the effects of both intrinsic and extrinsic factors in a multivariate comparative approach. We model five intrinsic (body size, habitat specialization, diet, reproductive rate and range size) and four extrinsic (climate and range overlap with introduced foxes, sheep and rabbits) factors. We use quantitative measures of geographical range contraction as indices of decline. We also develop a new modelling approach of phylogenetically independent contrasts combined with imputation of missing values to deal simultaneously with phylogenetic structuring and missing data. One extrinsic variable-geographical range overlap with sheep-was the only consistent predictor of declines. Habitat specialization was independently but less consistently associated with declines. This suggests that extrinsic factors largely determine interspecific variation in extinction risk among Australian marsupials, and that the intrinsic factors that are consistently associated with extinction risk in other vertebrates are less important in this group. We conclude that recent anthropogenic changes have been profound enough to affect species on a continent-wide scale, regardless of their intrinsic biology.

Variable Demand and Profitability in Service Companies: a case study in the information technology sector

Managing a variable demand scenario is particularly challenging on services organizations because services companies usually have a major part of fixed costs. The article studies how a services organization manages its demand variability and its relation with the organization`s profitability. Moreover, the study searched for alternatives used to reduce the demand variability`s impact on the profitability of the company. The research was based on a case study with a Brazilian services provider on information technology business. The study suggests that alternatives like using outsourced employees to cover demand peaks may bring benefits only on short term, reducing the profitability of the company on long term: Some options are revealed, like the internationalization of employees and the investment on developing its own workforce.

Familial partial epilepsy with variable foci: Clinical features and linkage to chromosome 22q12

Background: Familial partial epilepsy with variable foci (FPEVF) is an autosomal dominant syndrome characterized by partial seizures originating from different brain regions in different family members in the absence of detectable structural abnormalities. A gene for FPEVF was mapped to chromosome 22q12 in two distantly related French-Canadian families. Methods: We describe the clinical features and performed a linkage analysis in a Spanish kindred and in a third French-Canadian family distantly related to the original pedigrees. Results: Onset of seizures was typically in middle childhood, and attacks were usually easy to control. Seizure semiology varied among family members but was constant for each individual. In some, a pattern of nocturnal frontal lobe seizures led to consideration of the diagnosis of autosomal dominant nocturnal frontal lobe epilepsy (ADNFLE). The Spanish family was mapped to chromosome 22q (multipoint lod score, 3.4), and the new French-Canadian family had a multipoint lod score of 2.97 and shared the haplotype of the original French-Canadian families. Conclusions: Identification of the various forms of familial partial epilepsy is challenging, particularly in small families, in which insufficient individuals exist to identify a specific pattern. We provide clinical guidelines for this task, which will eventually be supplanted by specific molecular diagnosis. We confirmed linkage of FPEVF to chromosome 22q 12 and redefined the region to a 5.2-Mb segment of DNA.

Variable effects of larval size on post-metamorphic performance in the field

Larval quality may be capable of explaining much of the variation in the recruitment and subsequent population dynamics of benthic marine invertebrates. Whilst the effects of larval nutritional condition on adult performance have received the most attention, recent work has shown that larval size may also be an important and ubiquitous source of variation in larval quality. We examined the effects of variation in larval size on the post-metamorphic survival and growth of Watersipora subtorquata in 2 very different habitats - experimental substrata and pier pilings. We found strong effects of larval size on colony performance, although these varied among experiments. For colonies on experimental substrata, larval size positively affected adult survival and, initially, growth. However, after 3 wk in the field, there was no relationship between larval size and colony size, possibly because colonies were completely surrounded by newly settled organisms. Larval size also positively affected post-metamorphic growth of colonies on pier pilings, but, surprisingly, colonies that came from larger larvae had lower survival than colonies from smaller larvae. Overall, variation in larval size will strongly affect the recruitment and subsequent performance of adults in this species, although this may vary among different habitats. This study highlights the importance of examining the effects of larval quality on adult performance in as realistic conditions as possible, because of the strong interaction between larval size effects and the environment.

Shared structural determinants for the calcium-independent liposome membrane permeabilization and sarcolemma depolarization in Bothropstoxin-I, a LYS49-PLA(2) from the venom of Bothrops jararacussu

The structural determinants of myotoxicity of bothropstoxin-I (BthTX-I), a Lys49 phospholipase A(2) from Bothrops jararacussu venom, were studied by measuring the resting membrane potential in the mouse phrenic nerve-diaphragm preparation. This method proved to be around 100-fold more sensitive than the creatine kinase release assay, and was used to evaluate a total of 31 site-directed BthTX-I alanine scanning mutants. Mutants that reduced the resting membrane potential were located in a surface patch defined by residues in the C-terminal loop (residues 115-129), positions 37-39 in the membrane interfacial recognition surface (Y46 and K54), and residue K93. These results expand the known structural determinants of the biological activity as evaluated by previous creatine kinase release experiments. Furthermore, a strong correlation is observed between the structural determinants of sarcolemma depolarization and calcium-independent disruption of liposome membranes, suggesting that a common mechanism of action underlies the permeabilization of the biological and model membranes. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tooth loss in Brazilian middle-aged adults: multilevel effects

Objective. To examine the link between tooth loss and multilevel factors in a national sample of middle-aged adults in Brazil. Material and methods. Analyses were based on the 2003 cross-sectional national epidemiological survey of the oral health of the Brazilian population, which covered 13 431 individuals (age 35-44 years). Multistage cluster sampling was used. The dependent variable was tooth loss and the independent variables were classified according to the individual or contextual level. A multilevel negative binomial regression model was adopted. Results. The average tooth loss was 14 (standard deviation 9.5) teeth. Half of the individuals had lost 12 teeth. The contextual variables showed independent effects on tooth loss. It was found that having 9 years or more of schooling was associated with protection against tooth loss (means ratio range 0.68-0.76). Not having visited the dentist and not having visited in the last >= 3 years accounted for increases of 33.5% and 21.3%, respectively, in the risk of tooth loss (P < 0.05). The increase in tooth extraction ratio showed a strong contextual effect on increased risk of tooth loss, besides changing the effect of protective variables. Conclusions. Tooth loss in middle-aged adults has important associations with social determinants of health. This study points to the importance of the social context as the main cause of oral health injuries suffered by most middle-aged Brazilian adults.