Contributions to time series data mining departing from the problem of road travel time modeling

194 p.

Comparison of habitat-based indices of abundance with fishery-independent biomass estimates from bottom trawl surveys

Rockfish species are notoriously difficult to sample with multispecies bottom trawl survey methods. Typically, biomass estimates have high coefficients of variation and can fluctuate outside the bounds of biological reality from year to year. This variation may be due in part to their patchy distribution related to very specific habitat preferences. We successfully modeled the distribution of five commercially important and abundant rockf ish species. A two-stage modeling method (modeling both presence-absence and abundance) and a collection of important habitat variables were used to predict bottom trawl survey catch per unit of effort. The resulting models explained between 22% and 66% of the variation in rockfish distribution. The models were largely driven by depth, local slope, bottom temperature, abundance of coral and sponge, and measures of water column productivity (i.e., phytoplankton and zooplankton). A year-effect in the models was back-transformed and used as an index of the time series of abundance. The abundance index trajectories of three of five species were similar to the existing estimates of their biomass. In the majority of cases the habitat-based indices exhibited less interannual variability and similar precision when compared with stratified survey-based biomass estimates. These indices may provide for stock assessment models a more stable alternative to current biomass estimates produced by the multispecies bottom trawl survey in the Gulf of Alaska.

Removing observational noise from fisheries-independent time series data using ARIMA models

Abundance indices derived from fishery-independent surveys typically exhibit much higher interannual variability than is consistent with the within-survey variance or the life history of a species. This extra variability is essentially observation noise (i.e. measurement error); it probably reflects environmentally driven factors that affect catchability over time. Unfortunately, high observation noise reduces the ability to detect important changes in the underlying population abundance. In our study, a noise-reduction technique for uncorrelated observation noise that is based on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series modeling is investigated. The approach is applied to 18 time series of finfish abundance, which were derived from trawl survey data from the U.S. northeast continental shelf. Although the a priori assumption of a random-walk-plus-uncorrelated-noise model generally yielded a smoothed result that is pleasing to the eye, we recommend that the most appropriate ARIMA model be identified for the observed time series if the smoothed time series will be used for further analysis of the population dynamics of a species.

A comparison of two fishery-independent survey programs used to define the population structure of American lobster (Homarus americanus) in the Gulf of Maine

The population structure and abundance of the American lobster (Homarus americanus) stock in the Gulf of Maine are defined by data derived from a fishery-independent trawl survey program conducted by the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS). Few sampling stations in the survey area are located inshore, in particular along coastal Maine. According to statistics, however, more than two thirds of the lobster landings come from inshore waters within three miles off the coast of Maine. In order to include an inshore survey program, complementary to the NMFS survey, the Maine Department of Marine Resources (DMR) initialized an inshore survey program in 2000. The survey was modeled on the NMFS survey program, making these two survey programs comparable. Using data from both survey programs, we evaluated the population structure of the American lobster in the Gulf of Maine. Our findings indicate that lobsters in the Gulf of Maine tend to have a size-dependent inshore-off-shore distribution; smaller lobsters are more likely to stay inshore and larger lobsters are more likely to stay offshore. The DMR inshore and NMFS survey programs focused on different areas in the Gulf of Maine and likely targeted different segments of the stock. We suggest that data from both survey programs be used to assess the lobster stock and to describe the dynamics of the stock in the Gulf of Maine.

Fishery-independent Bottom Trawl Surveys for Deep-water Fishes and Invertebrates of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, 2002–08

From 2002 through 2008, the Mississippi Laboratories of the NMFS Southeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA, conducted fishery-independent bottom trawl surveys for continental shelf and outer-continental shelf deep-water fishes and invertebrates of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (50–500 m bottom depths). Five-hundred and ninety species were captured at 797 bottom trawl locations. Standardized survey gear and randomly selected survey sites have facilitated development of a fishery-independent time series that characterizes species diversity, distributions, and catch per unit effort. The fishery-independent surveys provide synoptic descriptions of deep-water fauna potentially impacted by various anthropogenic factors.

Travel Characteristics of Marine Anglers Using Oil and Gas Platforms in the Central Gulf of Mexico

This study was designed to evaluate the travel characteristics of avid marine anglers off Louisiana in the Central Gulf of Mexico. It focuses on the complex marine travel patterns involving the extensive assemblage of oil and gas structures. In an intercept approach, marine recreationalf isherman were asked to identify near and offshore travel patterns on the day of the interview. Information was also solicited regarding how respondents selected and located fishing destinations as well as what method of fishing was undertaken that day. Petroleum platforms were a principal fishing destination, and platform anglers traveled an average distance of 75.5 km (40.7 n.mi.) to and from offshore fishing locations. In fishing an average of 6.5 platforms per trip, these anglers traveled about 21.3 km (11.5 n.mi.) between the first and last platform visited. Mean total distances for platform anglers were 96 km (51.8 n.mi). Travel distances for bay, nearshore, and bluewater anglers were also obtained.