Future fish distributions constrained by depth in warming seas

European continental shelf seas have experienced intense warming over the past 30 years1. In the North Sea, fish have been comprehensively monitored throughout this period and resulting data provide a unique record of changes in distribution and abundance in response to climate change2, 3. We use these data to demonstrate the remarkable power of generalized additive models (GAMs), trained on data earlier in the time series, to reliably predict trends in distribution and abundance in later years. Then, challenging process-based models that predict substantial and ongoing poleward shifts of cold-water species4, 5, we find that GAMs coupled with climate projections predict future distributions of demersal (bottom-dwelling) fish species over the next 50 years will be strongly constrained by availability of habitat of suitable depth. This will lead to pronounced changes in community structure, species interactions and commercial fisheries, unless individual acclimation or population-level evolutionary adaptations enable fish to tolerate warmer conditions or move to previously uninhabitable locations.

Future fish distributions constrained by depth in warming seas

European continental shelf seas have experienced intense warming over the past 30 years1. In the North Sea, fish have been comprehensively monitored throughout this period and resulting data provide a unique record of changes in distribution and abundance in response to climate change2, 3. We use these data to demonstrate the remarkable power of generalized additive models (GAMs), trained on data earlier in the time series, to reliably predict trends in distribution and abundance in later years. Then, challenging process-based models that predict substantial and ongoing poleward shifts of cold-water species4, 5, we find that GAMs coupled with climate projections predict future distributions of demersal (bottom-dwelling) fish species over the next 50 years will be strongly constrained by availability of habitat of suitable depth. This will lead to pronounced changes in community structure, species interactions and commercial fisheries, unless individual acclimation or population-level evolutionary adaptations enable fish to tolerate warmer conditions or move to previously uninhabitable locations.

MicroRNAs in Parasitic Helminthiases: Current Status and Future Perspectives

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) play a variety of roles in diverse biological processes at the post-transcriptional regulatory level. Although numerous miRNAs have been identified in parasitic helminths, we still know little about their biological functions. As molecular signatures that can be stably detectable in serum and plasma, worm-derived miRNAs have shown promise as markers for the early detection of particular helminth infections. In addition, host miRNAs are dysregulated during the development of pathology associated with helminthiases and show potential as therapeutic intervention targets. This review discusses the possible biological roles of helminth miRNAs, the prediction of their specific targets, their application in diagnosis and anti-pathology therapy interventions, and the potential functions of miRNAs in extracellular vesicle cargo, such as exosomes, in helminth-host interplay.

Future Possibilities, Social Challenges and Adaptation Requirements of Industrial Progress

The paper addresses the technological change that is currently happening in industry. First, a review of the global trends that impact industrial developmentsis made, then a summary ofexpanding intelligent technologies and their systems. The report describes in detail the concept of Industry 4.0 and its major technology-related aspects. At the end of the paper, a summary of social consequences is addressed, especially concerning generational concerns connected to the current change in industrial technology. The purpose of the study is to raise some special aspects and considerations in the given subject.

Health in Ireland: Key Trends 2015

Health in Ireland Key Trends gives us insights into trends in demographics, population health, hospital and primary care and health service employment and expenditure. The presentation of trend data over the last decade in the 2015 report highlights the many significant achievements that Ireland has made in terms of key outcomes relating to the health and wellbeing of the population. However, it also highlights the challenges that persist in terms of the accessibility of timely healthcare and in the context of financial constraints. In the last decade alone, there has been an increase of two and a half years in life expectancy. These gains are driven largely by reductions in mortality rates from principal causes of deaths such as those from heart disease and cancer. Another striking feature is the growth in the number of people aged over 65. Each year this cohort increases by 20,000 people. This trend is set to continue into the future and will have implications for future planning and health service delivery. Ireland will see the largest proportional increases in the population aged 85 years and older. Ageing of the population in conjunction with lifestyle-related health threats continue to present major challenges now and into the future in sustaining and further improving health and health services in Ireland. Although difficult to quantify, the contribution of modern health services to these improvements in health outcomes and in life expectancy have been significant. Ireland’s fertility rates are still among the highest in Europe but the birth rate has fallen to its lowest rate for the last decade.  However, Ireland currently has the highest proportion of children and young people in our population among EU countries.  

Anticipating future risk in social-ecological systems using fuzzy cognitive mapping: the case of wildfire in the Chiquitania, Bolivia

Understanding complex social-ecological systems, and anticipating how they may respond to rapid change, requires an approach that incorporates environmental, social, economic, and policy factors, usually in a context of fragmented data availability. We employed fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) to integrate these factors in the assessment of future wildfire risk in the Chiquitania region, Bolivia. In this region, dealing with wildfires is becoming increasingly challenging because of reinforcing feedbacks between multiple drivers. We conducted semistructured interviews and constructed different FCMs in focus groups to understand the regional dynamics of wildfire from diverse perspectives. We used FCM modelling to evaluate possible adaptation scenarios in the context of future drier climatic conditions. Scenarios also considered possible failure to respond in time to the emergent risk. This approach proved of great potential to support decision making for risk management. It helped identify key forcing variables and generate insights into potential risks and trade-offs of different strategies. The “Hands-off” scenario resulted in amplified impacts driven by intensifying trends, affecting particularly the agricultural production under drought conditions. The “Fire management” scenario, which adopted a bottom-up approach to improve controlled burning, showed less trade-offs between wildfire risk reduction and production compared with the “Fire suppression” scenario. Findings highlighted the importance of considering strategies that involve all actors who use fire, and the need to nest these strategies for a more systemic approach to manage wildfire risk. The FCM model could be used as a decision-support tool and serve as a “boundary object” to facilitate collaboration and integration of different perceptions of fire in the region. This approach also has the potential to inform decisions in other dynamic frontier landscapes around the world that are facing increased risk of large wildfires.

Falls and the Social Isolation of Older Adults in the National Health and Aging Trends Study

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Future Bloom and Blossom Frost Risk for Malus domestica Considering Climate Model and Impact Model Uncertainties

The future bloom and risk of blossom frosts for Malus domestica were projected using regional climate realizations and phenological (= impact) models. As climate impact projections are susceptible to uncertainties of climate and impact models and model concatenation, the significant horizon of the climate impact signal was analyzed by applying 7 impact models, including two new developments, on 13 climate realizations of the IPCC emission scenario A1B. Advancement of phenophases and a decrease in blossom frost risk for Lower Saxony (Germany) for early and late ripeners was determined by six out of seven phenological models. Single model/single grid point time series of bloom showed significant trends by 2021-2050 compared to 1971-2000, whereas the joint signal of all climate and impact models did not stabilize until 2043. Regarding blossom frost risk, joint projection variability exceeded the projected signal. Thus, blossom frost risk cannot be stated to be lower by the end of the 21st century despite a negative trend. As a consequence it is however unlikely to increase. Uncertainty of temperature, blooming date and blossom frost risk projection reached a minimum at 2078-2087. The projected phenophases advanced by 5.5 d K-1, showing partial compensation of delayed fulfillment of the winter chill requirement and faster completion of the following forcing phase in spring. Finally, phenological model performance was improved by considering the length of day.

A future dynamically reconfigurable automotive software system

Embedded software systems in vehicles are of rapidly increasing commercial importance for the automotive industry. Current systems employ a static run-time environment; due to the difficulty and cost involved in the development of dynamic systems in a high-integrity embedded control context. A dynamic system, referring to the system configuration, would greatly increase the flexibility of the offered functionality and enable customised software configuration for individual vehicles, adding customer value through plug-and-play capability, and increased quality due to its inherent ability to adjust to changes in hardware and software. We envisage an automotive system containing a variety of components, from a multitude of organizations, not necessarily known at development time. The system dynamically adapts its configuration to suit the run-time system constraints. This paper presents our vision for future automotive control systems that will be regarded in an EU research project, referred to as DySCAS (Dynamically Self-Configuring Automotive Systems). We propose a self-configuring vehicular control system architecture, with capabilities that include automatic discovery and inclusion of new devices, self-optimisation to best-use the processing, storage and communication resources available, self-diagnostics and ultimately self-healing. Such an architecture has benefits extending to reduced development and maintenance costs, improved passenger safety and comfort, and flexible owner customisation. Specifically, this paper addresses the following issues: The state of the art of embedded software systems in vehicles, emphasising the current limitations arising from fixed run-time configurations; and the benefits and challenges of dynamic configuration, giving rise to opportunities for self-healing, self-optimisation, and the automatic inclusion of users’ Consumer Electronic (CE) devices. Our proposal for a dynamically reconfigurable automotive software system platform is outlined and a typical use-case is presented as an example to exemplify the benefits of the envisioned dynamic capabilities.

Collaborative Systems for Smart Environments: Trends and Challenges

Part 1: Introduction

Asian soybean rust in Brazil: past, present, and future.

ABSTRACT: Asian soybean rust, caused by the fungus Phakopsora pachyrhizi, is the most severe disease of the crop and can cause yield losses of up to 90%. The disease was first reported in Brazil in 2001. Epidemics of the disease are common in the country, where the fungus can survive year?round. Regulatory measures to reduce the inoculum between seasons and avoid late-season soybean have been adopted to manage the disease. Disease control has relied mainly on chemical control, but a lower sensibility of the fungus to fungicides has been reported in Brazil. Major?resistance genes have been mapped and incorporated into the cultivars. With the reduced efficacy of the fungicides, the adoption of integrated measures to control the disease will be important for the sustainability of the crop. This review presents the main changes in the soybean crop system caused by the introduction of the fungus in Brazil, the current management strategies adopted to avoid losses, and the new trends that, together with biotechnological strategies, can improve management in the future. RESUMO: A ferrugem?asiática da soja, causada pelo fungo Phakopsora pachyrhizi, é a doença mais severa da cultura e pode causar perdas de produtividade de até 90%. A doença foi relatada pela primeira vez no Brasil em 2001. Epidemias da doença são comuns no País, onde o fungo pode sobreviver durante todo o ano. Medidas regulatórias para reduzir o inóculo entre safras e evitar a semeadura tardia de soja têm sido adotadas para manejar a doença. O controle da doença tem se baseado principalmente no controle químico, mas uma menor sensibilidade do fungo aos fungicidas tem sido relatada no Brasil. Genes de resistência têm sido mapeados e incorporados às cultivares. Por causa da redução da eficiência dos fungicidas, a adoção de medidas integradas para o controle da doença será importante para a sustentabilidade da cultura. Este artigo de revisão apresenta as principais mudanças no sistema de produção da soja causadas pela introdução do fungo no Brasil, as medidas de controle atualmente usadas para evitar perdas, e as novas tendências que, juntas com estratégias biotecnológicas, podem melhorar o manejo da doença no futuro.

Catches of the sport fishing competitions along the Algarve coast (Portugal): species, sizes, catch rates, and trends

Background. Stocks of many marine fishes are in decline and a number of studies suggest that for some species the impact of recreational angling may be important. To date, only recreational (leisure) fishing surveys have been conducted in Portugal, with no studies on beach angling competitions, dynamically increasing in number over the past 10 to 20 years. In view of the above, we decided to evaluate the impact of such events on the Algarve coast (southern Portugal) in terms of the abundance, diversity, and respective weight of fish species caught and outline some conservation measures and recommendations for the management of the targeted species. Materials and methods. Participants of 22 angling competitions taking place between February and June 2007 were surveyed. In each competition a random sample of anglers was interviewed, and the specimens caught by each participant were identified, weighed, and measured. Results. Thirteen taxa belonging to eight families were identified, and the most common were: garfish, Belone belone (Linnaeus, 1761); mullets, Mugilidae (not identified); and mackerels, Scomber spp. A total of 563 specimens were sampled, totalling 75.4 kg of weight, with the average catch per angler weighing 0.5 +/- 0.05 SE (n = 153) kg. Differences were also observed between the length at first maturity (L(50)) of the specimens caught and their respective Minimum Landing Size (MLS) and Allowed Minimum Size (AMS), most particularly in the case of the European seabass, Dicentrarchus labrax (L.), with almost all individuals caught measuring below the species-specific L50. Analysis of time series of competition results (1996-2009) showed no evidence of a decrease in catches or in mean weight. Conclusion. Based on the results we propose that the AMS for beach angling competitions should be increased to the MLS in order to prevent the capture of juvenile fishes, especially the sea bass. Future studies should address the size selectivity of the hooks used in beach competitions, with a view to the implementation of a minimum hook size for competitions.

Panicum maximum cv. Tanzânia: climate trends and regional pasture production in Brazil.

Projected change in forage production under a range of climate scenarios is important for the evaluation of the impacts of global climate change on pasture-based livestock production systems in Brazil. We evaluated the effects of regional climate trends on Panicum maximum cv. Tanzânia production, predicted by agro-meteorological model considering the sum of degree days and corrected by a water availa bility index. Data from Brazilian weather stations (1963?2009) were considered as the current climate (baseline), and future scenarios, based on contrasting scenarios interms of increased temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations (high and low increases), were determined for 2013?2040 (2025 scenario) and for 2043?2070 (2055 scenario). Predicted baseline scenarios indicated that there are regional and seasonal variations in P. maximum production related to variation intemperature and water availability during the year. Production was lower in the Northeast region and higher in the rainforest area. Total annual productionunder future climate scenarios was predicted toincrease by up to 20% for most of the Brazilian area, mainly due to temperature increase, according to each climate model and scenario evaluated. The highest increase in forage production is expected to be in the South, Southeast and Central-west areas of Brazil. In these regions, future climate scenarios will not lead to changes in the seasonal production, with largerincreases in productivity during the summer. Climate risk is expected to decrease, as the probability of occurrence of low forage productions will be lower. Due to the predicted increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall in the Northeast area, P. maximum production is expected to decrease, mainly when considering scenarios based on the PRECIS model for the 2055 scenario.

Ecological Literacy And Beyond: Problem-based Learning For Future Professionals.

Ecological science contributes to solving a broad range of environmental problems. However, lack of ecological literacy in practice often limits application of this knowledge. In this paper, we highlight a critical but often overlooked demand on ecological literacy: to enable professionals of various careers to apply scientific knowledge when faced with environmental problems. Current university courses on ecology often fail to persuade students that ecological science provides important tools for environmental problem solving. We propose problem-based learning to improve the understanding of ecological science and its usefulness for real-world environmental issues that professionals in careers as diverse as engineering, public health, architecture, social sciences, or management will address. Courses should set clear learning objectives for cognitive skills they expect students to acquire. Thus, professionals in different fields will be enabled to improve environmental decision-making processes and to participate effectively in multidisciplinary work groups charged with tackling environmental issues.

Convergence Of Soil Nitrogen Isotopes Across Global Climate Gradients.

Quantifying global patterns of terrestrial nitrogen (N) cycling is central to predicting future patterns of primary productivity, carbon sequestration, nutrient fluxes to aquatic systems, and climate forcing. With limited direct measures of soil N cycling at the global scale, syntheses of the (15)N:(14)N ratio of soil organic matter across climate gradients provide key insights into understanding global patterns of N cycling. In synthesizing data from over 6000 soil samples, we show strong global relationships among soil N isotopes, mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), and the concentrations of organic carbon and clay in soil. In both hot ecosystems and dry ecosystems, soil organic matter was more enriched in (15)N than in corresponding cold ecosystems or wet ecosystems. Below a MAT of 9.8°C, soil δ(15)N was invariant with MAT. At the global scale, soil organic C concentrations also declined with increasing MAT and decreasing MAP. After standardizing for variation among mineral soils in soil C and clay concentrations, soil δ(15)N showed no consistent trends across global climate and latitudinal gradients. Our analyses could place new constraints on interpretations of patterns of ecosystem N cycling and global budgets of gaseous N loss.