Modelling reactive and proactive behaviour in simulation

This research investigated the simulation model behaviour of a traditional and combined discrete event as well as agent based simulation models when modelling human reactive and proactive behaviour in human centric complex systems. A departmental store was chosen as human centric complex case study where the operation system of a fitting room in WomensWear department was investigated. We have looked at ways to determine the efficiency of new management policies for the fitting room operation through simulating the reactive and proactive behaviour of staff towards customers. Once development of the simulation models and their verification had been done, we carried out a validation experiment in the form of a sensitivity analysis. Subsequently, we executed a statistical analysis where the mixed reactive and proactive behaviour experimental results were compared with some reactive experimental results from previously published works. Generally, this case study discovered that simple proactive individual behaviour could be modelled in both simulation models. In addition, we found the traditional discrete event model performed similar in the simulation model output compared to the combined discrete event and agent based simulation when modelling similar human behaviour.

AN ASSESSMENT OF FLOW REGIME MAPS AND A NUMERICAL HEAT TRANSFER CORRELATION FOR THE STRATIFIED/ANNULAR REGIME OF SHEAR-DRIVEN INTERNAL CONDENSING FLOWS

Several modern-day cooling applications require the incorporation of mini/micro-channel shear-driven flow condensers. There are several design challenges that need to be overcome in order to meet those requirements. The difficulty in developing effective design tools for shear-driven flow condensers is exacerbated due to the lack of a bridge between the physics-based modelling of condensing flows and the current, popular approach based on semi-empirical heat transfer correlations. One of the primary contributors of this disconnect is a lack of understanding caused by the fact that typical heat transfer correlations eliminate the dependence of the heat transfer coefficient on the method of cooling employed on the condenser surface when it may very well not be the case. This is in direct contrast to direct physics-based modeling approaches where the thermal boundary conditions have a direct and huge impact on the heat transfer coefficient values. Typical heat transfer correlations instead introduce vapor quality as one of the variables on which the value of the heat transfer coefficient depends. This study shows how, under certain conditions, a heat transfer correlation from direct physics-based modeling can be equivalent to typical engineering heat transfer correlations without making the same apriori assumptions. Another huge factor that raises doubts on the validity of the heat-transfer correlations is the opacity associated with the application of flow regime maps for internal condensing flows. It is well known that flow regimes influence heat transfer rates strongly. However, several heat transfer correlations ignore flow regimes entirely and present a single heat transfer correlation for all flow regimes. This is believed to be inaccurate since one would expect significant differences in the heat transfer correlations for different flow regimes. Several other studies present a heat transfer correlation for a particular flow regime - however, they ignore the method by which extents of the flow regime is established. This thesis provides a definitive answer (in the context of stratified/annular flows) to: (i) whether a heat transfer correlation can always be independent of the thermal boundary condition and represented as a function of vapor quality, and (ii) whether a heat transfer correlation can be independently obtained for a flow regime without knowing the flow regime boundary (even if the flow regime boundary is represented through a separate and independent correlation). To obtain the results required to arrive at an answer to these questions, this study uses two numerical simulation tools - the approximate but highly efficient Quasi-1D simulation tool and the exact but more expensive 2D Steady Simulation tool. Using these tools and the approximate values of flow regime transitions, a deeper understanding of the current state of knowledge in flow regime maps and heat transfer correlations in shear-driven internal condensing flows is obtained. The ideas presented here can be extended for other flow regimes of shear-driven flows as well. Analogous correlations can also be obtained for internal condensers in the gravity-driven and mixed-driven configuration.

Business Process Management and Process Mining within a Real Business Environment: An Empirical Analysis of Event Logs Data in a Consulting Project

Il presente elaborato esplora l’attitudine delle organizzazioni nei confronti dei processi di business che le sostengono: dalla semi-assenza di struttura, all’organizzazione funzionale, fino all’avvento del Business Process Reengineering e del Business Process Management, nato come superamento dei limiti e delle problematiche del modello precedente. All’interno del ciclo di vita del BPM, trova spazio la metodologia del process mining, che permette un livello di analisi dei processi a partire dagli event data log, ossia dai dati di registrazione degli eventi, che fanno riferimento a tutte quelle attività supportate da un sistema informativo aziendale. Il process mining può essere visto come naturale ponte che collega le discipline del management basate sui processi (ma non data-driven) e i nuovi sviluppi della business intelligence, capaci di gestire e manipolare l’enorme mole di dati a disposizione delle aziende (ma che non sono process-driven). Nella tesi, i requisiti e le tecnologie che abilitano l’utilizzo della disciplina sono descritti, cosi come le tre tecniche che questa abilita: process discovery, conformance checking e process enhancement. Il process mining è stato utilizzato come strumento principale in un progetto di consulenza da HSPI S.p.A. per conto di un importante cliente italiano, fornitore di piattaforme e di soluzioni IT. Il progetto a cui ho preso parte, descritto all’interno dell’elaborato, ha come scopo quello di sostenere l’organizzazione nel suo piano di improvement delle prestazioni interne e ha permesso di verificare l’applicabilità e i limiti delle tecniche di process mining. Infine, nell’appendice finale, è presente un paper da me realizzato, che raccoglie tutte le applicazioni della disciplina in un contesto di business reale, traendo dati e informazioni da working papers, casi aziendali e da canali diretti. Per la sua validità e completezza, questo documento è stata pubblicato nel sito dell'IEEE Task Force on Process Mining.

Interventions for nurses caring for a child who has an unexpected acute life threatening event (ALTE) in hospital

Introduction: Caring for a child who has an unexpected ALTE in hospital can be stressful. An ALTE may include a cardiac arrest, respiratory arrest or call for immediate assistance. An international survey of practice was conducted to identify any existing interventions to inform a PhD program of work aimed at reducing the stress from these events through preparation and support. Purpose: The purpose of the survey was threefold: (1) Describe ‘normal’ practice when it comes to preparing staff or providing psychological support after caring for a child who has had an ALTE. (2) Determine if there are any interventions to prepare clinical staff for potential psychological effects of caring for a child who has an ALTE. (3) Determine if there are any interventions to provide support for clinical staff after caring for a child who has an ALTE. Material - Methods: An 18 item semi structured questionnaire was designed for the study to allow respondent to describe practices within their institution and outline their opinions and professional experiences. Clinicians from selected children’s and adult hospitals in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, United Kingdom and the United States of America were contacted by telephone. Following consent they were given the option to complete the survey via the telephone, by post or online. Results: Of the 61 hospitals approached 44 (72%) clinicians responded. Eighteen (41%) respondents identified interventions in place to prepare nurses for an ALTE ranging from (but not limited to) ad hoc discussions during life support training through to structured simulation training. Thirty-six (82%) respondents identified that they had interventions in place to support nurses after an ALTE ranging from (but not limited to) debriefing through to structured case reviews. Conclusions: Interventions varied across institutions, with no outcome or evaluation data for the interventions published to date.

Synthetic portfolio for event studies: Estimating the effects of volatility call auctions

We propose a method denoted as synthetic portfolio for event studies in market microstructure that is particularly interesting to use with high frequency data and thinly traded markets. The method is based on Synthetic Control Method and provides a robust data driven method to build a counterfactual for evaluating the effects of the volatility call auctions. We find that SMC could be used if the loss function is defined as the difference between the returns of the asset and the returns of a synthetic portfolio. We apply SCM to test the performance of the volatility call auction as a circuit breaker in the context of an event study. We find that for Colombian Stock Market securities, the asynchronicity of intraday data reduces the analysis to a selected group of stocks, however it is possible to build a tracking portfolio. The realized volatility increases after the auction, indicating that the mechanism is not enhancing the price discovery process.

Statistical Analysis and Modelling Aspects of Thermally Driven Turbulence

The present work aims to provide a deeper understanding of thermally driven turbulence and to address some modelling aspects related to the physics of the flow. For this purpose, two idealized systems are investigated by Direct Numerical Simulation: the rotating and non-rotating Rayleigh-Bénard convection. The preliminary study of the flow topologies shows how the coherent structures organise into different patterns depending on the rotation rate. From a statistical perspective, the analysis of the turbulent kinetic energy and temperature variance budgets allows to identify the flow regions where the production, the transport, and the dissipation of turbulent fluctuations occur. To provide a multi-scale description of the flows, a theoretical framework based on the Kolmogorov and Yaglom equations is applied for the first time to the Rayleigh-Bénard convection. The analysis shows how the spatial inhomogeneity modulates the dynamics at different scales and wall-distances. Inside the core of the flow, the space of scales can be divided into an inhomogeneity-dominated range at large scales, an inertial-like range at intermediate scales and a dissipative range at small scales. This classic scenario breaks close to the walls, where the inhomogeneous mechanisms and the viscous/diffusive processes are important at every scale and entail more complex dynamics. The same theoretical framework is extended to the filtered velocity and temperature fields of non-rotating Rayleigh-Bénard convection. The analysis of the filtered Kolmogorov and Yaglom equations reveals the influence of the residual scales on the filtered dynamics both in physical and scale space, highlighting the effect of the relative position between the filter length and the crossover that separates the inhomogeneity-dominated range from the quasi-homogeneous range. The assessment of the filtered and residual physics results to be instrumental for the correct use of the existing Large-Eddy Simulation models and for the development of new ones.

A coupled ocean-atmosphere system for short term forecasting in the southern european seas

This coupled model combines two state-of-the-art numerical models, NEMO for the oceanic component and WRF for the atmospheric component and implements them at an appropriate resolution. The oceanic model has been implemented starting from the Mediterranean Forecasting System with a resolution of 1/24° and the domain was extended to exactly match the grid of a newly implemented atmospheric model for the same area. The uncoupled ocean model has been validated against SST observed data, both in the simulation of an extreme event and in the short-term forecast of two seasonal periods. A new setup of the model was successfully tested in which the downward radiative fluxes were prescribed from atmospheric forecasts. Various physical schemes, domain, boundary, and initial conditions were tested with the atmospheric model to obtain the best representation of medicane Ianos. The heat fluxes calculated by the uncoupled models were compared to determine which setup gave the best energy balance between the components of the coupled model. The coupling strategy used is the traditional one, where the ocean is driven by the surface stress, heat fluxes, and radiative fluxes computed in the atmospheric component, which in turn receives the SST and surface currents. As expected, the overall skills of the coupled model are slightly degraded compared to the uncoupled models, even though the positioning and timing of the cyclone at the time of the landfall is enhanced. The mean heat fluxes do not change compared to the uncoupled model, whereas the pattern of the shortwave radiation and latent heat is changed. Moreover, the two energy fluxes are larger in absolute values than those calculated with the MFS formulas. The fact that they have opposite signs give raise to a compensation error that limits the overall degradation of the coupled simulation.

Extreme Harmonic Generation In Electrically Driven Spin Resonance.

We report the observation of multiple harmonic generation in electric dipole spin resonance in an InAs nanowire double quantum dot. The harmonics display a remarkable detuning dependence: near the interdot charge transition as many as eight harmonics are observed, while at large detunings we only observe the fundamental spin resonance condition. The detuning dependence indicates that the observed harmonics may be due to Landau-Zener transition dynamics at anticrossings in the energy level spectrum.

Urothelial Carcinogen Resistance Driven By Stronger Toll-like Receptor 2 (tlr2) And Uroplakin Iii (up Iii) Defense Mechanisms: A New Model.

The objective of the study was to illustrate the applicability and significance of the novel Lewis urothelial cancer model compared to the classic Fisher 344. Fischer 344 and Lewis females rats, 7 weeks old, were intravesical instilled N-methyl-N-nitrosourea 1.5 mg/kg every other week for a total of four doses. After 15 weeks, animals were sacrificed and bladders analyzed: histopathology (tumor grade and stage), immunohistochemistry (apoptotic and proliferative indices) and blotting (Toll-like receptor 2-TLR2, Uroplakin III-UP III and C-Myc). Control groups received placebo. There were macroscopic neoplastic lesions in 20 % of Lewis strain and 70 % of Fischer 344 strain. Lewis showed hyperplasia in 50 % of animals, normal bladders in 50 %. All Fischer 344 had lesions, 20 % papillary hyperplasia, 30 % dysplasia, 40 % neoplasia and 10 % squamous metaplasia. Proliferative and apoptotic indices were significantly lower in the Lewis strain (p < 0.01). The TLR2 and UP III protein levels were significantly higher in Lewis compared to Fischer 344 strain (70.8 and 46.5 % vs. 49.5 and 16.9 %, respectively). In contrast, C-Myc protein levels were significantly higher in Fischer 344 (22.5 %) compared to Lewis strain (13.7 %). The innovative Lewis carcinogen resistance urothelial model represents a new strategy for translational research. Preservation of TLR2 and UP III defense mechanisms might drive diverse urothelial phenotypes during carcinogenesis in differently susceptible individuals.

Finite-element Analysis Of 3 Situations Of Trauma In The Human Edentulous Mandible.

Maxillofacial trauma resulting from falls in elderly patients is a major social and health care concern. Most of these traumatic events involve mandibular fractures. The aim of this study was to analyze stress distributions from traumatic loads applied on the symphyseal, parasymphyseal, and mandibular body regions in the elderly edentulous mandible using finite-element analysis (FEA). Computerized tomographic analysis of an edentulous macerated human mandible of a patient approximately 65 years old was performed. The bone structure was converted into a 3-dimensional stereolithographic model, which was used to construct the computer-aided design (CAD) geometry for FEA. The mechanical properties of cortical and cancellous bone were characterized as isotropic and elastic structures, respectively, in the CAD model. The condyles were constrained to prevent free movement in the x-, y-, and z-axes during simulation. This enabled the simulation to include the presence of masticatory muscles during trauma. Three different simulations were performed. Loads of 700 N were applied perpendicular to the surface of the cortical bone in the symphyseal, parasymphyseal, and mandibular body regions. The simulation results were evaluated according to equivalent von Mises stress distributions. Traumatic load at the symphyseal region generated low stress levels in the mental region and high stress levels in the mandibular neck. Traumatic load at the parasymphyseal region concentrated the resulting stress close to the mental foramen. Traumatic load in the mandibular body generated extensive stress in the mandibular body, angle, and ramus. FEA enabled precise mapping of the stress distribution in a human elderly edentulous mandible (neck and mandibular angle) in response to 3 different traumatic load conditions. This knowledge can help guide emergency responders as they evaluate patients after a traumatic event.

Monte Carlo Simulation Of The Response Functions Of Cdte Detectors To Be Applied In X-ray Spectroscopy.

In this work, the energy response functions of a CdTe detector were obtained by Monte Carlo (MC) simulation in the energy range from 5 to 160keV, using the PENELOPE code. In the response calculations the carrier transport features and the detector resolution were included. The computed energy response function was validated through comparison with experimental results obtained with (241)Am and (152)Eu sources. In order to investigate the influence of the correction by the detector response at diagnostic energy range, x-ray spectra were measured using a CdTe detector (model XR-100T, Amptek), and then corrected by the energy response of the detector using the stripping procedure. Results showed that the CdTe exhibits good energy response at low energies (below 40keV), showing only small distortions on the measured spectra. For energies below about 80keV, the contribution of the escape of Cd- and Te-K x-rays produce significant distortions on the measured x-ray spectra. For higher energies, the most important correction is the detector efficiency and the carrier trapping effects. The results showed that, after correction by the energy response, the measured spectra are in good agreement with those provided by a theoretical model of the literature. Finally, our results showed that the detailed knowledge of the response function and a proper correction procedure are fundamental for achieving more accurate spectra from which quality parameters (i.e., half-value layer and homogeneity coefficient) can be determined.

Influence of intrapulpal pressure simulation on the bond strength of adhesive systems to dentin

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the influence of intrapulpal pressure simulation on the bonding effectiveness of etch & rinse and self-etch adhesives to dentin. Eighty sound human molars were distributed into eight groups, according to the permeability level of each sample, measured by an apparatus to assess hydraulic conductance (Lp). Thus, a similar mean permeability was achieved in each group. Three etch & rinse adhesives (Prime & Bond NT - PB, Single Bond -SB, and Excite - EX) and one self-etch system (Clearfil SE Bond - SE) were employed, varying the presence or absence of an intrapulpal pressure (IPP) simulation of 15 cmH2O. After adhesive and restorative procedures were carried out, the samples were stored in distilled water for 24 hours at 37°C, and taken for tensile bond strength (TBS) testing. Fracture analysis was performed using a light microscope at 40 X magnification. The data, obtained in MPa, were then submitted to the Kruskal-Wallis test ( a = 0.05). The results revealed that the TBS of SB and EX was significantly reduced under IPP simulation, differing from the TBS of PB and SE. Moreover, SE obtained the highest bond strength values in the presence of IPP. It could be concluded that IPP simulation can influence the bond strength of certain adhesive systems to dentin and should be considered when in vitro studies are conducted.

Scavenging processes of atmospheric particulate matter: a numerical modeling of case studies

Below cloud scavenging processes have been investigated considering a numerical simulation, local atmospheric conditions and particulate matter (PM) concentrations, at different sites in Germany. The below cloud scavenging model has been coupled with bulk particulate matter counter TSI (Trust Portacounter dataset, consisting of the variability prediction of the particulate air concentrations during chosen rain events. The TSI samples and meteorological parameters were obtained during three winter Campaigns: at Deuselbach, March 1994, consisting in three different events; Sylt, April 1994 and; Freiburg, March 1995. The results show a good agreement between modeled and observed air concentrations, emphasizing the quality of the conceptual model used in the below cloud scavenging numerical modeling. The results between modeled and observed data have also presented high square Pearson coefficient correlations over 0.7 and significant, except the Freiburg Campaign event. The differences between numerical simulations and observed dataset are explained by the wind direction changes and, perhaps, the absence of advection mass terms inside the modeling. These results validate previous works based on the same conceptual model.

The mitochondrial genome of the stingless bee Melipona bicolor (Hymenoptera, Apidae, Meliponini): sequence, gene organization and a unique tRNA translocation event conserved across the tribe Meliponini

At present a complete mtDNA sequence has been reported for only two hymenopterans, the Old World honey bee, Apis mellifera and the sawfly Perga condei. Among the bee group, the tribe Meliponini (stingless bees) has some distinction due to its Pantropical distribution, great number of species and large importance as main pollinators in several ecosystems, including the Brazilian rain forest. However few molecular studies have been conducted on this group of bees and few sequence data from mitochondrial genomes have been described. In this project, we PCR amplified and sequenced 78% of the mitochondrial genome of the stingless bee Melipona bicolor (Apidae, Meliponini). The sequenced region contains all of the 13 mitochondrial protein-coding genes, 18 of 22 tRNA genes, and both rRNA genes (one of them was partially sequenced). We also report the genome organization (gene content and order), gene translation, genetic code, and other molecular features, such as base frequencies, codon usage, gene initiation and termination. We compare these characteristics of M. bicolor to those of the mitochondrial genome of A. mellifera and other insects. A highly biased A+T content is a typical characteristic of the A. mellifera mitochondrial genome and it was even more extreme in that of M. bicolor. Length and compositional differences between M. bicolor and A. mellifera genes were detected and the gene order was compared. Eleven tRNA gene translocations were observed between these two species. This latter finding was surprising, considering the taxonomic proximity of these two bee tribes. The tRNA Lys gene translocation was investigated within Meliponini and showed high conservation across the Pantropical range of the tribe.

Evaluation of thermal simulation of households in the metropolitan region of São Paulo, Brazil

Abstract This paper aims at assessing the performance of a program of thermal simulation (Arquitrop) in different households in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. The households were selected for the Wheezing Project which followed up children under 2 years old to monitor the occurrence of respiratory diseases. The results show that in all three study households there is a good approximation between the observed and the simulated indoor temperatures. It was also observed a fairly consistent and realistic behavior between the simulated indoor and the outdoor temperatures, describing the Arquitrop model as an efficient estimator and good representative of the thermal behavior of households in the city of Sao Paulo. The worst simulation is linked to the poorest type of construction. This may be explained by the bad quality of the construction, which the Architrop could not simulate adequately