Global estimate of aerosol direct radiative forcing from satellite measurements

Atmospheric aerosols cause scattering and absorption of incoming solar radiation. Additional anthropogenic aerosols released into the atmosphere thus exert a direct radiative forcing on the climate system1. The degree of present-day aerosol forcing is estimated from global models that incorporate a representation of the aerosol cycles1–3. Although the models are compared and validated against observations, these estimates remain uncertain. Previous satellite measurements of the direct effect of aerosols contained limited information about aerosol type, and were confined to oceans only4,5. Here we use state-of-the-art satellitebased measurements of aerosols6–8 and surface wind speed9 to estimate the clear-sky direct radiative forcing for 2002, incorporating measurements over land and ocean. We use a Monte Carlo approach to account for uncertainties in aerosol measurements and in the algorithm used. Probability density functions obtained for the direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere give a clear-sky, global, annual average of 21.9Wm22 with standard deviation, 60.3Wm22. These results suggest that present-day direct radiative forcing is stronger than present model estimates, implying future atmospheric warming greater than is presently predicted, as aerosol emissions continue to decline10.

Satellite-based estimate of the direct and indirect aerosol climate forcing

The main uncertainty in anthropogenic forcing of the Earth’s climate stems from pollution aerosols, particularly their ‘‘indirect effect’’ whereby aerosols modify cloud properties. We develop a new methodology to derive a measurement-based estimate using almost exclusively information from an Earth radiation budget instrument (CERES) and a radiometer (MODIS). We derive a statistical relationship between planetary albedo and cloud properties, and, further, between the cloud properties and column aerosol concentration. Combining these relationships with a data set of satellite-derived anthropogenic aerosol fraction, we estimate an anthropogenic radiative forcing of �-0.9 ± 0.4 Wm�-2 for the aerosol direct effect and of �-0.2 ± 0.1 Wm�-2 for the cloud albedo effect. Because of uncertainties in both satellite data and the method, the uncertainty of this result is likely larger than the values given here which correspond only to the quantifiable error estimates. The results nevertheless indicate that current global climate models may overestimate the cloud albedo effect.

An investigation into the impact of using various techniques to estimate Arctic surface air temperature anomalies

Time series of global and regional mean Surface Air Temperature (SAT) anomalies are a common metric used to estimate recent climate change. Various techniques can be used to create these time series from meteorological station data. The degree of difference arising from using five different techniques, based on existing temperature anomaly dataset techniques, to estimate Arctic SAT anomalies over land and sea ice were investigated using reanalysis data as a testbed. Techniques which interpolated anomalies were found to result in smaller errors than non-interpolating techniques relative to the reanalysis reference. Kriging techniques provided the smallest errors in estimates of Arctic anomalies and Simple Kriging was often the best kriging method in this study, especially over sea ice. A linear interpolation technique had, on average, Root Mean Square Errors (RMSEs) up to 0.55 K larger than the two kriging techniques tested. Non-interpolating techniques provided the least representative anomaly estimates. Nonetheless, they serve as useful checks for confirming whether estimates from interpolating techniques are reasonable. The interaction of meteorological station coverage with estimation techniques between 1850 and 2011 was simulated using an ensemble dataset comprising repeated individual years (1979-2011). All techniques were found to have larger RMSEs for earlier station coverages. This supports calls for increased data sharing and data rescue, especially in sparsely observed regions such as the Arctic.

Development of a wind gust model to estimate gust speeds and their return periods

Spatially dense observations of gust speeds are necessary for various applications, but their availability is limited in space and time. This work presents an approach to help to overcome this problem. The main objective is the generation of synthetic wind gust velocities. With this aim, theoretical wind and gust distributions are estimated from 10 yr of hourly observations collected at 123 synoptic weather stations provided by the German Weather Service. As pre-processing, an exposure correction is applied on measurements of the mean wind velocity to reduce the influence of local urban and topographic effects. The wind gust model is built as a transfer function between distribution parameters of wind and gust velocities. The aim of this procedure is to estimate the parameters of gusts at stations where only wind speed data is available. These parameters can be used to generate synthetic gusts, which can improve the accuracy of return periods at test sites with a lack of observations. The second objective is to determine return periods much longer than the nominal length of the original time series by considering extreme value statistics. Estimates for both local maximum return periods and average return periods for single historical events are provided. The comparison of maximum and average return periods shows that even storms with short average return periods may lead to local wind gusts with return periods of several decades. Despite uncertainties caused by the short length of the observational records, the method leads to consistent results, enabling a wide range of possible applications.

Estimate of the cutoff errors in the Ewald summation for dipolar systems

Theoretical estimates for the cutoff errors in the Ewald summation method for dipolar systems are derived. Absolute errors in the total energy, forces and torques, both for the real and reciprocal space parts, are considered. The applicability of the estimates is tested and confirmed in several numerical examples. We demonstrate that these estimates can be used easily in determining the optimal parameters of the dipolar Ewald summation in the sense that they minimize the computation time for a predefined, user set, accuracy.

An optimal inverse method using Doppler lidar measurements to estimate the surface sensible heat flux

Inverse methods are widely used in various fields of atmospheric science. However, such methods are not commonly used within the boundary-layer community, where robust observations of surface fluxes are a particular concern. We present a new technique for deriving surface sensible heat fluxes from boundary-layer turbulence observations using an inverse method. Doppler lidar observations of vertical velocity variance are combined with two well-known mixed-layer scaling forward models for a convective boundary layer (CBL). The inverse method is validated using large-eddy simulations of a CBL with increasing wind speed. The majority of the estimated heat fluxes agree within error with the proscribed heat flux, across all wind speeds tested. The method is then applied to Doppler lidar data from the Chilbolton Observatory, UK. Heat fluxes are compared with those from a mast-mounted sonic anemometer. Errors in estimated heat fluxes are on average 18 %, an improvement on previous techniques. However, a significant negative bias is observed (on average −63%) that is more pronounced in the morning. Results are improved for the fully-developed CBL later in the day, which suggests that the bias is largely related to the choice of forward model, which is kept deliberately simple for this study. Overall, the inverse method provided reasonable flux estimates for the simple case of a CBL. Results shown here demonstrate that this method has promise in utilizing ground-based remote sensing to derive surface fluxes. Extension of the method is relatively straight-forward, and could include more complex forward models, or other measurements.

Combining satellite observations and reanalysis energy transports to estimate global net surface energy fluxes 1985-2012

Two methods are developed to estimate net surface energy fluxes based upon satellite-based reconstructions of radiative fluxes at the top of atmosphere and the atmospheric energy tendencies and transports from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Method 1 applies the mass adjusted energy divergence from ERA-Interim while method 2 estimates energy divergence based upon the net energy difference at the top of atmosphere and the surface from ERA-Interim. To optimise the surface flux and its variability over ocean, the divergences over land are constrained to match the monthly area mean surface net energy flux variability derived from a simple relationship between the surface net energy flux and the surface temperature change. The energy divergences over the oceans are then adjusted to remove an unphysical residual global mean atmospheric energy divergence. The estimated net surface energy fluxes are compared with other data sets from reanalysis and atmospheric model simulations. The spatial correlation coefficients of multi-annual means between the estimations made here and other data sets are all around 0.9. There are good agreements in area mean anomaly variability over the global ocean, but discrepancies in the trend over the eastern Pacific are apparent.

Uniform factorial decay estimate for the remainder of rough Taylor expansion

We establish an uniform factorial decay estimate for the Taylor approximation of solutions to controlled differential equations. Its proof requires a factorial decay estimate for controlled paths which is interesting in its own right.

Using Africa’s protected area network to estimate the global population of a threatened and declining species: a case study of the critically endangered White-headed Vulture Trigonoceps occipitalis

The White-headed Vulture Trigonoceps occipitalis (WhV) is uncommon and largely restricted to protected areas across its range in sub-Saharan Africa. We used the World Database on Protected Areas to identify protected areas (PAs) likely to contain White-headed Vultures. Vulture occurrence on road transects in Southern, East, and West Africa was adjusted to nests per km2 using data from areas with known numbers of nests and corresponding road transect data. Nest density was used to calculate the number of WhV nests within identified PAs and from there extrapolated to estimate the global population. Across a fragmented range, 400 PAs are estimated to contain 1893 WhV nests. Eastern Africa is estimated to contain 721 nests, Central Africa 548 nests, Southern Africa 468 nests, and West Africa 156 nests. Including immature and nonbreeding birds, and accounting for data deficient PAs, the estimated global population is 5475 - 5493 birds. The identified distribution highlights are alarming: over 78% (n = 313) of identified PAs contain fewer than five nests. A further 17% (n = 68) of PAs contain 5 - 20 nests and 4% (n = 14) of identified PAs are estimated to contain >20 nests. Just 1% (n = 5) of PAs are estimated to contain >40 nests; none is located in West Africa. Whilst ranging behavior of WhVs is currently unknown, 35% of PAs large enough to hold >20 nests are isolated by more than 100 km from other PAs. Spatially discrete and unpredictable mortality events such as poisoning pose major threats to small localized vulture populations and will accelerate ongoing local extinctions. Apart from reducing the threat of poisoning events, conservation actions promoting linkages between protected areas should be pursued. Identifying potential areas for assisted re-establishment via translocation offers the potential to expand the range of this species and alleviate risk.

An improved estimate of leaf area index based on the histogram analysis of hemispherical photographs

Leaf area index (LAI) is a key parameter that affects the surface fluxes of energy, mass, and momentum over vegetated lands, but observational measurements are scarce, especially in remote areas with complex canopy structure. In this paper we present an indirect method to calculate the LAI based on the analyses of histograms of hemispherical photographs. The optimal threshold value (OTV), the gray-level required to separate the background (sky) and the foreground (leaves), was analytically calculated using the entropy crossover method (Sahoo, P.K., Slaaf, D.W., Albert, T.A., 1997. Threshold selection using a minimal histogram entropy difference. Optical Engineering 36(7) 1976-1981). The OTV was used to calculate the LAI using the well-known gap fraction method. This methodology was tested in two different ecosystems, including Amazon forest and pasturelands in Brazil. In general, the error between observed and calculated LAI was similar to 6%. The methodology presented is suitable for the calculation of LAI since it is responsive to sky conditions, automatic, easy to implement, faster than commercially available software, and requires less data storage. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Virtual Pole from Magnetic Anomaly (VPMA): A procedure to estimate the age of a rock from its magnetic anomaly only

Virtual Pole from Magnetic Anomaly (VPMA) is a new multi-disciplinary methodology that estimates the age of a source rock from its magnetic anomaly, taken directly from available aeromagnetic data. The idea is to use those anomalies in which a strong remanent magnetic component is likely to occur. Once the total magnetization of the anomaly is computed through any of the currently available methods, the line that connects all virtual paleogeographic poles is related with the position, on a paleogeographic projection, of the appropriate age fragment of the APWT curve. We applied this procedure to five (5) well-known magnetic anomalies of the South American plate in SE Brazil, all of them associated to alkaline complexes of Mesozoic age. The apparent ages obtained from VPMA on three of the anomalies where the radiometric age of the source rock is known - Tapira, Araxa and Juquia were inside the error interval of the published ages. The VPMA apparent ages of the other two, where the age of the source rock is not known (Registro and Pariqueracu magnetic anomalies) were geologically coherent. We expect that the application of the VPMA methodology as a reconnaissance geochronological tool may contribute to geological knowledge over continental areas, especially when the source rocks of the magnetic anomalies am unknown or buried below superficial sediments. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Consistency in approximate entropy given by a volumetric estimate

Non-linear methods for estimating variability in time-series are currently of widespread use. Among such methods are approximate entropy (ApEn) and sample approximate entropy (SampEn). The applicability of ApEn and SampEn in analyzing data is evident and their use is increasing. However, consistency is a point of concern in these tools, i.e., the classification of the temporal organization of a data set might indicate a relative less ordered series in relation to another when the opposite is true. As highlighted by their proponents themselves, ApEn and SampEn might present incorrect results due to this lack of consistency. In this study, we present a method which gains consistency by using ApEn repeatedly in a wide range of combinations of window lengths and matching error tolerance. The tool is called volumetric approximate entropy, vApEn. We analyze nine artificially generated prototypical time-series with different degrees of temporal order (combinations of sine waves, logistic maps with different control parameter values, random noises). While ApEn/SampEn clearly fail to consistently identify the temporal order of the sequences, vApEn correctly do. In order to validate the tool we performed shuffled and surrogate data analysis. Statistical analysis confirmed the consistency of the method. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

First molecular estimate of sex-ratio of southern right whale calves, Eubalaena australis, for Brazilian waters

The southern right whale (Eubalaena australis) was one of the most intensively hunted whales between the 17th and 20th centuries in the southern hemisphere. Recent estimates indicate that today there are around 7000 whales, representing 5 to 10% Of its original population. On the other hand, recent studies estimated that the population that migrates to the Brazilian coast grew by 14% from 1987 to 2003. However, there is no information about sex-ratio for adults or for calves in this region, which is an important parameter for understanding the biology of the species. We present here the first estimate Of calves` sex-ratio of southern right whales found along the southern Brazilian coast, one of the most important wintering grounds for the species. Sex was molecularly indentified for 21 biopsies collected from calves between 1998 and 2002, along the coast of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina States, in southern Brazil. The sex-ratio was two females for one male, however, it was not statistically different (chi(2) test, alpha = 0.05; df = 1) from the expected ratio of 1:1. This result is in accordance with the sex-ratio estimated for the species of all ages using external morphology (and behaviour in formation), (is well as for most species of baleen whales.

Using non-homogeneous Poisson models with multiple change-points to estimate the number of ozone exceedances in Mexico City

In this paper, we consider some non-homogeneous Poisson models to estimate the probability that an air quality standard is exceeded a given number of times in a time interval of interest. We assume that the number of exceedances occurs according to a non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP). This Poisson process has rate function lambda(t), t >= 0, which depends on some parameters that must be estimated. We take into account two cases of rate functions: the Weibull and the Goel-Okumoto. We consider models with and without change-points. When the presence of change-points is assumed, we may have the presence of either one, two or three change-points, depending of the data set. The parameters of the rate functions are estimated using a Gibbs sampling algorithm. Results are applied to ozone data provided by the Mexico City monitoring network. In a first instance, we assume that there are no change-points present. Depending on the adjustment of the model, we assume the presence of either one, two or three change-points. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

In vitro basal cytotoxicity assay applied to estimate acute oral systemic toxicity of grandisin and its major metabolite

Preclinical investigations can start with preliminary in vitro studies before using animal models. Following this approach, the number of animals used in preclinical acute toxicity testing can be reduced. In this study, we employed an in-house validated in vitro cytotoxicity test based on the Spielmann approach for toxicity evaluation of the lignan grandisin, a candidate anticancer agent, and its major metabolite. the 4-O-demethylgrandisin, by neutral red uptake (NRU) assay, on mouse fibroblasts Balb/c 3T3 cell line. Using different concentrations of grandisin and its major metabolite (2.31; 1.16; 0.58; 0.29; 0.14; 0.07; 0.04; 0.002 mu M) in Balb/c 3T3-A31 NRU cytotoxicity assay, after incubation for 48 h, we obtained IC(50) values for grandisin and its metabolite of 0.078 and 0.043 mu M, respectively. The computed LD(50) of grandisin and 4-O-demethylgrandisin were 617.72 and 429.95 mg/kg, respectively. Both were classified under the Globally Harmonized System as category 4. Since pharmacological and toxicological data are crucial in the developmental stages of drug discovery, using an in vitro assay we demonstrated that grandisin and its metabolite exhibit distinct toxicity profiles. Furthermore, results presented in this work can contribute to reduce the number of animals required in subsequent pharmacological/toxicological studies. (C) 2010 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.