A test of the predictive validity of non-linear QALY models using time trade-off utilities

This paper presents a test of the predictive validity of various classes ofQALY models (i.e., linear, power and exponential models). We first estimatedTTO utilities for 43 EQ-5D chronic health states and next these states wereembedded in health profiles. The chronic TTO utilities were then used topredict the responses to TTO questions with health profiles. We find that thepower QALY model clearly outperforms linear and exponential QALY models.Optimal power coefficient is 0.65. Our results suggest that TTO-based QALYcalculations may be biased. This bias can be avoided using a power QALY model.

Ecological niche models and patterns of richness and endemism of the southern Andean genus Eurymetopum (Coleoptera, Cleridae)

Eurymetopum is an Andean clerid genus with 22 species. We modeled the ecological niches of 19 species with Maxent and used them as potential distributional maps to identify patterns of richness and endemicity. All modeled species maps were overlapped in a single map in order to determine richness. We performed an optimality analysis with NDM/VNDM in a grid of 1º latitude-longitude in order to identify endemism. We found a highly rich area, located between 32º and 41º south latitude, where the richest pixels have 16 species. One area of endemism was identified, located in the Maule and Valdivian Forest biogeographic provinces, which extends also to the Santiago province of the Central Chilean subregion, and contains four endemic species (E. parallelum, E. prasinum, E. proteus, and E. viride), as well as 16 non-endemic species. The sympatry of these phylogenetically unrelated species might indicate ancient vicariance processes, followed by episodes of dispersal. Based on our results, we suggest a close relationship between these provinces, with the Maule representing a complex area.

Synanthropy and ecological aspects of Muscidae (Diptera) in a tropical dry forest ecosystem in Colombia

The synanthropic index and other ecological aspects of the Muscidae family were evaluated through simultaneous monthly sampling in three different environments (urban, rural and forest) using van Someren-Rydon traps baited with human faeces, chicken viscera and decomposing fish and onion. Four traps were set up in each environment (one per bait item) for 48 hours per month, with samples taken every 12 hours. A total of 5726 specimens were collected, belonging to 19 species and 13 genera. Brontaea normata (+99,9), Brontaea quadristigma (+96,9), Synthesiomyia nudiseta (+96,5), Ophyra aenescens (+96,2), Musca domestica (+95,7) and Atherigona orientalis (+93,8) had the highest synanthropic indices, showing a marked preference for human environments. The most abundant species were B. normata (24,31%), Biopyrellia bipuncta (20,60%) and Pseudoptilolepis nigripoda (15,82%), the latter two showed a preference for uninhabited areas. A total of 11 new records for Colombia were found: Ophyra aenescens, Cyrtoneuropsis pararescita, Morellia basalis, Neomuscina dorsipuncta, Biopyrellia bipuncta, Pseudoptilolepis nigripoda, Neomuscina instabilis, Neomuscina currani, Polietina orbitalis, Neomuscina pictipennis and Cyrtoneuropsis maculipennis. Except for the first four species, the remainder presented negative synantrophy indexes (from minor to major), which would allow to use them as ecological indicators of the disturbance degree of dry forests in Colombia.

Culicidae (Diptera, Culicomorpha) from the western Brazilian Amazon: Juami-Japurá Ecological Station

With 312 trap-hours of sampling effort, 1554 specimens of Culicidae (Diptera) were collected, using CDC and Malaise traps, in nine different locations along the Juami River, within the Juami-Japurá Ecological Station, Amazonas State, Brazil. A list of mosquito species with 54 taxa is presented, which includes three new distributional records for the state of Amazonas. The species found belong to the genera Anopheles, Aedeomyia, Aedes, Psorophora, Culex, Coquillettidia, Sabethes, Wyeomyia and Uranotaenia.

Developmental biology, polymorphism and ecological aspects of Stiretrus decemguttatus (Hemiptera, Pentatomidae), an important predator of cassidine beetles

Developmental biology, polymorphism and ecological aspects of Stiretrus decemguttatus (Hemiptera, Pentatomidae), an important predator of cassidine beetles. Stiretrus decemguttatus is an important predator of two species of cassidine beetles, Botanochara sedecimpustulata (Fabricius, 1781) and Zatrephina lineata (Fabricius, 1787) (Coleoptera, Cassidinae), on the Marajó Island, Brazil. It attacks individuals in all development stages, but preys preferentially on late-instar larvae. Its life cycle in the laboratory was 43.70 ± 1.09 days, with an egg incubation period of six days and duration from nymph and adult stages of 16.31 ± 0.11 and 22.10 ± 1.67 days, respectively. The duration of one generation (T) was 12.65 days and the intrinsic population growth rate (r) 0.25. These data reveal the adjustment of the life cycle of S. decemgutattus with those of the two preys, but suggest greater impact on Z. lineata. However, no preference over cassidine species was shown in the laboratory. Up to 17 different color patterns can be found in adults of S. decemguttatus, based on combinations of three basic sets of color markings. Some of them resemble the markings of chrysomelids associated with Ipomoea asarifolia (Convolvulaceae) and are possibly a mimetic ring. Three color patterns were identified in nymphs, none of which was associated with any specific adult color pattern.

Understanding the ecological niche to elucidate spatial strategies of the southernmost Tupinambis lizards

Understanding factors that shape ranges of species is central in evolutionary biology. Species distribution models have become important tools to test biogeographical, ecological and evolutionary hypotheses. Moreover, from an ecological and evolutionary perspective, these models help to elucidate the spatial strategies of species at a regional scale. We modelled species distributions of two phylogenetically, geographically and ecologically close Tupinambis species (Teiidae) that occupy the southernmost area of the genus distribution in South America. We hypothesized that similarities between these species might have induced spatial strategies at the species level, such as niche differentiation and divergence of distribution patterns at a regional scale. Using logistic regression and MaxEnt we obtained species distribution models that revealed interspecific differences in habitat requirements, such as environmental temperature, precipitation and altitude. Moreover, the models obtained suggest that although the ecological niches of Tupinambis merianae and T. rufescens are different, these species might co-occur in a large contact zone. We propose that niche plasticity could be the mechanism enabling their co-occurrence. Therefore, the approach used here allowed us to understand the spatial strategies of two Tupinambis lizards at a regional scale.

Ecological temporal stability of Staphylococcus aureus nasal carriage.

We described the colonization dynamics of Staphylococcus aureus in a group of 266 healthy carriers over a period of approximately 1 year. We used precise genotyping methods, i.e., amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP), spa typing, and double-locus sequence typing (DLST), to detect changes in strain identity. Strain change took place rather rarely: out of 89 carriers who had initially been colonized, only 7 acquired a strain different from the original one. Approximately one-third of the carriers eliminated the colonization, and a similar number became newly colonized. Some of these events probably represent detection failure rather than genuine colonization loss or acquisition. Lower bacterial counts were associated with increased probability of eliminating the colonization. We have confirmed a high mutation rate in the spa locus: 6 out of 53 strains underwent mutation in the spa locus. There was no overall change in S. aureus genotype composition.

Ecological assembly rules in plant communities--approaches, patterns and prospects.

Understanding how communities of living organisms assemble has been a central question in ecology since the early days of the discipline. Disentangling the different processes involved in community assembly is not only interesting in itself but also crucial for an understanding of how communities will behave under future environmental scenarios. The traditional concept of assembly rules reflects the notion that species do not co-occur randomly but are restricted in their co-occurrence by interspecific competition. This concept can be redefined in a more general framework where the co-occurrence of species is a product of chance, historical patterns of speciation and migration, dispersal, abiotic environmental factors, and biotic interactions, with none of these processes being mutually exclusive. Here we present a survey and meta-analyses of 59 papers that compare observed patterns in plant communities with null models simulating random patterns of species assembly. According to the type of data under study and the different methods that are applied to detect community assembly, we distinguish four main types of approach in the published literature: species co-occurrence, niche limitation, guild proportionality and limiting similarity. Results from our meta-analyses suggest that non-random co-occurrence of plant species is not a widespread phenomenon. However, whether this finding reflects the individualistic nature of plant communities or is caused by methodological shortcomings associated with the studies considered cannot be discerned from the available metadata. We advocate that more thorough surveys be conducted using a set of standardized methods to test for the existence of assembly rules in data sets spanning larger biological and geographical scales than have been considered until now. We underpin this general advice with guidelines that should be considered in future assembly rules research. This will enable us to draw more accurate and general conclusions about the non-random aspect of assembly in plant communities.

Incremental Validity and Indirect effect of Ethical Development on Work Performance

We modeled work performance as outcomes of individual-differences mediated by technical performance. Beyond the "usual suspects" (e.g., general mental ability, and personality), we also measured the ethical development of participants (n = 460). We surmised that ethical development - which has not been extensively studied as a predictor of work performance while controlling for established predictors - captures unique variance in both technical and work performance. Results demonstrated incremental validity for ethical development in predicting technical performance, which in turn predicted work performance. The indirect effect of ethical development was significant too. Our results highlight the importance of process models of performance, which include proximal as well as distal individual differences.

More on Testing for Validity Instead of Looking for It

Using Monte Carlo simulations and reanalyzing the data of a validation study of the AEIM emotional intelligence test, we demonstrated that an atheoretical approach and the use of weak statistical procedures can result in biased validity estimates. These procedures included stepwise regression-and the general case of failing to include important theoretical controls-extreme scores analysis, and ignoring heteroscedasticity as well as measurement error. The authors of the AEIM test responded by offering more complete information about their analyses, allowing us to further examine the perils of ignoring theory and correct statistical procedures. In this paper we show with extended analyses that the AEIM test is invalid.

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi: genetics of multigenomic, clonal networks and its ecological consequences

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi are thought to have remained asexual for 400 million years although recent studies have suggested that considerable genetic and phenotypic variation could potentially exist in populations. A brief discussion of these multigenomic organisms is presented. (C) 2003 The Linnean Society of London.

Genetic diversity and ecological success of Staphylococcus aureus strains colonizing humans.

The genetic determinants and phenotypic traits which make a Staphylococcus aureus strain a successful colonizer are largely unknown. The genetic diversity and population structure of 133 S. aureus isolates from healthy, generally risk-free adult carriers were investigated using four different typing methods: multilocus sequence typing (MLST), amplified fragment length polymorphism analysis (AFLP), double-locus sequence typing (DLST), and spa typing were compared. Carriage isolates displayed great genetic diversity which could only be revealed fully by DLST. Results of AFLP and MLST were highly concordant in the delineation of genotypic clusters of closely related isolates, roughly equivalent to clonal complexes. spa typing and DLST provided considerably less phylogenetic information. The resolution of spa typing was similar to that of AFLP and inferior to that of DLST. AFLP proved to be the most universal method, combining a phylogeny-building capacity similar to that of MLST with a much higher resolution. However, it had a lower reproducibility than sequencing-based MLST, DLST, and spa typing. We found two cases of methicillin-resistant S. aureus colonization, both of which were most likely associated with employment at a health service. Of 21 genotypic clusters detected, 2 were most prevalent: cluster 45 and cluster 30 each colonized 24% of the carrier population. The number of bacteria found in nasal samples varied significantly among the clusters, but the most prevalent clusters were not particularly numerous in the nasal samples. We did not find much evidence that genotypic clusters were associated with different carrier characteristics, such as age, sex, medical conditions, or antibiotic use. This may provide empirical support for the idea that genetic clusters in bacteria are maintained in the absence of adaptation to different niches. Alternatively, carrier characteristics other than those evaluated here or factors other than human hosts may exert selective pressure maintaining genotypic clusters.

Construct validity of the French version of the PRWE (Patient Rated Wrist Evaluation) with the French version of the DASH (Disabilities Arm Shoulder and Hand) is good to very good in a population of patients with wrist injuries in an inpatient rehabilitation unit

Objective.- The Patient-Rated Wrist Evaluation is a specific questionnaire for the wrist [1]. It consists of 15 questions with a total score of 100. It was recently translated into French [2]. However, its validity has not been tested in this language. The Disabilities Arm Shoulder and Hand (DASH), with well-established psychometric properties, is considered as the reference questionnaire for the evaluation of upper extremities. The objective of this study is to measure the construct validity of the PRWE-F with the DASH-F in patients with wrist pathology.Patients and methods.- Fifty-one patients (40 m, 11 w, mean age 42 years), 25 fractures of the radius and 26 lesions of the carpus.Questionnaires PRWE-F and DASH-F at entry and at discharge (0 to 100). Calculation of the construct validity of the PRWE-F comparing with the DASH-F with Pearson correlation coefficients (r) at entry and at discharge. Level of significance (alpha) was set at 5%.Results.- Correlation DASH/PRWE at entry: r = 0.799 (95% CI 0.671 to 0.881), P < 0.0001. Correlation DASH/PRWE at discharge: r = 0.847 (95% CI: 0.745 to 0.910), P < 0.0001.Discussion.- The construct validity of the two instruments indicates that they measure the same concept. Our correlation between DASH-F and PRWE-F, going from 0.799 to 0.847, are comparable to those published in different languages (0.71 to 0.84) [3,4]. The questionnaires PRWE-F can thus be used in rehabilitation patients presenting with wrist pathologies; it is comparable to the DASH but described by MacDermid [1] to be more specific. Compared to the DASH it has the advantage of consisting of two dimensions. Its construct validity is excellent. This questionnaire should be evaluated in other populations, and it should be compared with hand questionnaires more specific than the DASH.