A limited area model intercomparison on the "Montserrat-2000" flash-flood event using statistical and deterministic methods

In the scope of the European project Hydroptimet, INTERREG IIIB-MEDOCC programme, limited area model (LAM) intercomparison of intense events that produced many damages to people and territory is performed. As the comparison is limited to single case studies, the work is not meant to provide a measure of the different models' skill, but to identify the key model factors useful to give a good forecast on such a kind of meteorological phenomena. This work focuses on the Spanish flash-flood event, also known as "Montserrat-2000" event. The study is performed using forecast data from seven operational LAMs, placed at partners' disposal via the Hydroptimet ftp site, and observed data from Catalonia rain gauge network. To improve the event analysis, satellite rainfall estimates have been also considered. For statistical evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs), several non-parametric skill scores based on contingency tables have been used. Furthermore, for each model run it has been possible to identify Catalonia regions affected by misses and false alarms using contingency table elements. Moreover, the standard "eyeball" analysis of forecast and observed precipitation fields has been supported by the use of a state-of-the-art diagnostic method, the contiguous rain area (CRA) analysis. This method allows to quantify the spatial shift forecast error and to identify the error sources that affected each model forecasts. High-resolution modelling and domain size seem to have a key role for providing a skillful forecast. Further work is needed to support this statement, including verification using a wider observational data set.

Cetuximab In Combination With Docetaxel In Patients (Pts) With Metastatic Castration Resistant (Mcrpc) And Docetaxel-Refractory Prostate Cancer: Final Analysis Of The Multicenter Phase Ii Trial Sakk 08/07

There is no registered treatment (ttr) for pts with mCRPC who have progressive disease during or shortly after docetaxel (doc). EGFR overexpression increases in prostate cancer during the course of the disease. We investigated efficacy and safety of the combination of the monoclonal EGFR antibody cetuximab (cet) and doc in pts with mCRPC who are doc-refractory. Methods: Pts with mCRPC progressing during or < 90 days after at least 12 weeks of doc were included. Ttr consisted of the same doc regimen as prior to progression (35mg/m2 d1,8,15 q4w or 75mg/m2 q3w) in combination with cet (400mg/m2 d1, then 250mg/m2 weekly). Primary endpoint was progression free survival (PFS) at 12 weeks defined as absence of PSA progression or progression of metastases (mets). Secondary endpoints included toxicity, PFS at 24 weeks, PSA response, response of measureable disease and overall survival. 35 pts were needed in a Simon's two stage optimal design with a power of 90% and a significance level of 5% in order to test PFS rate at 12 weeks of £10% vs ?30%. Results: 35 evaluable pts were enrolled at 15 Swiss centers between 7/08 and 9/09. Median follow up was 14.8 months. Confirmed PFS at 12 weeks was 34% (95%CI 19-52%), PFS at 24 weeks was 20% and overall survival was 12.0 months (95%CI 7.1 -15.6). 20% (7/35) had a confirmed decline in PSA ? 50% and 31% (11/35) had a confirmed PSA decline ? 30%. Of pts with measurable disease (n=24) PR, SD and PD at week 12 was 4%, 54% and 25%, respectively (17% not evaluable). 3/9 (33%) pts with PDduring last doc ttr before inclusion reached the primary endpoint compared to 7/18 (39%) with PR or SD to last doc. 54% of evaluable pts experienced grade 3 and 6% grade 4 toxicity. Discussion: The result of the primary endpoint was promising in this first trial to test cet in combination with doc in pts with docetaxel-refractory mCRPC. Because this goal was achieved in such a highly pretreated pts population it appears that inhibition of the EGFR pathway may play a more important and persistent role in the treatment of prostate cancer than perceived so far. Further research is therefore warranted. Disclosure: R. Cathomas: - Membership on advisory board for sanofi aventis (suisse) and Merck. S. Gillessen: - Membership in advisory board for Sanofi Aventis. All other authors have declared no conflicts of interest.

A Transportation Safety Planning Tool for the City of Ames, August 2011

The historically-reactive approach to identifying safety problems and mitigating them involves selecting black spots or hot spots by ranking locations based on crash frequency and severity. The approach focuses mainly on the corridor level without taking the exposure rate (vehicle miles traveled) and socio-demographics information of the study area, which are very important in the transportation planning process, into consideration. A larger study analysis unit at the Transportation Analysis Zone (TAZ) level or the network planning level should be used to address the needs of development of the community in the future and incorporate safety into the long-range transportation planning process. In this study, existing planning tools (such as the PLANSAFE models presented in NCHRP Report 546) were evaluated for forecasting safety in small and medium-sized communities, particularly as related to changes in socio-demographics characteristics, traffic demand, road network, and countermeasures. The research also evaluated the applicability of the Empirical Bayes (EB) method to network-level analysis. In addition, application of the United States Road Assessment Program (usRAP) protocols at the local urban road network level was investigated. This research evaluated the applicability of these three methods for the City of Ames, Iowa. The outcome of this research is a systematic process and framework for considering road safety issues explicitly in the small and medium-sized community transportation planning process and for quantifying the safety impacts of new developments and policy programs. More specifically, quantitative safety may be incorporated into the planning process, through effective visualization and increased awareness of safety issues (usRAP), the identification of high-risk locations with potential for improvement, (usRAP maps and EB), countermeasures for high-risk locations (EB before and after study and PLANSAFE), and socio-economic and demographic induced changes at the planning-level (PLANSAFE).

Pavement Markings and Safety Final Report, November 2010

Previous research on pavement markings from a safety perspective tackled various issues such as pavement marking retroreflectivity variability, relationship between pavement marking retroreflectivity and driver visibility, or pavement marking improvements and safety. A recent research interest in this area has been to find a correlation between retroreflectivity and crashes, but a significant statistical relationship has not yet been found. This study investigates such a possible statistical relationship by analyzing five years of pavement marking retroreflectivity data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) on all state primary roads and corresponding crash and traffic data. This study developed a spatial-temporal database using measured retroreflectivity data to account for the deterioration of pavement markings over time along with statewide crash data to attempt to quantify a relationship between crash occurrence probability and pavement marking retroreflectivity. First, logistic regression analyses were done for the whole data set to find a statistical relationship between crash occurrence probability and identified variables, which are road type, line type, retroreflectivity, and traffic (vehicle miles traveled). The analysis looked into subsets of the data set such as road type, retroreflectivity measurement source, high crash routes, retroreflectivity range, and line types. Retroreflectivity was found to have a significant effect in crash occurrence probability for four data subsets—interstate, white edge line, yellow edge line, and yellow center line data. For white edge line and yellow center line data, crash occurrence probability was found to increase by decreasing values of retroreflectivity.

Roadway Lighting and Safety: Phase II – Monitoring Quality, Durability and Efficiency, November 2011

This Phase II project follows a previous project titled Strategies to Address Nighttime Crashes at Rural, Unsignalized Intersections. Based on the results of the previous study, the Iowa Highway Research Board (IHRB) indicated interest in pursuing further research to address the quality of lighting, rather than just the presence of light, with respect to safety. The research team supplemented the literature review from the previous study, specifically addressing lighting level in terms of measurement, the relationship between light levels and safety, and lamp durability and efficiency. The Center for Transportation Research and Education (CTRE) teamed with a national research leader in roadway lighting, Virginia Tech Transportation Institute (VTTI) to collect the data. An integral instrument to the data collection efforts was the creation of the Roadway Monitoring System (RMS). The RMS allowed the research team to collect lighting data and approach information for each rural intersection identified in the previous phase. After data cleanup, the final data set contained illuminance data for 101 lighted intersections (of 137 lighted intersections in the first study). Data analysis included a robust statistical analysis based on Bayesian techniques. Average illuminance, average glare, and average uniformity ratio values were used to classify quality of lighting at the intersections.

The 5th anniversary of "Patient Safety in Surgery" - from the Journal's origin to its future vision.

A prospective study was undertaken to determine prognostic markers for patients with obstructive jaundice. Along with routine liver function tests, antipyrine clearance was determined in 20 patients. Four patients died after basal investigations. Five patients underwent definitive surgery. The remaining 11 patients were subjected to percutaneous transhepatic biliary decompression. Four patients died during the drainage period, while surgery was carried out for seven patients within 1-3 weeks of drainage. Of 20 patients, only six patients survived. Basal liver function tests were comparable in survivors and nonsurvivors. Discriminant analysis of the basal data revealed that plasma bilirubin, proteins and antipyrine half-life taken together had a strong association with mortality. A mathematical equation was derived using these variables and a score was computed for each patient. It was observed that a score value greater than or equal to 0.84 indicated survival. Omission of antipyrine half-life from the data, however, resulted in prediction of false security in 55% of patients. This study highlights the importance of addition of antipyrine elimination test to the routine liver function tests for precise identification of high risk patients.

From Empirical Bayes to Full Bayes: Methods for Analysing Traffice Safety Data, October 25, 2004

Traffic safety engineers are among the early adopters of Bayesian statistical tools for analyzing crash data. As in many other areas of application, empirical Bayes methods were their first choice, perhaps because they represent an intuitively appealing, yet relatively easy to implement alternative to purely classical approaches. With the enormous progress in numerical methods made in recent years and with the availability of free, easy to use software that permits implementing a fully Bayesian approach, however, there is now ample justification to progress towards fully Bayesian analyses of crash data. The fully Bayesian approach, in particular as implemented via multi-level hierarchical models, has many advantages over the empirical Bayes approach. In a full Bayesian analysis, prior information and all available data are seamlessly integrated into posterior distributions on which practitioners can base their inferences. All uncertainties are thus accounted for in the analyses and there is no need to pre-process data to obtain Safety Performance Functions and other such prior estimates of the effect of covariates on the outcome of interest. In this slight, fully Bayesian methods may well be less costly to implement and may result in safety estimates with more realistic standard errors. In this manuscript, we present the full Bayesian approach to analyzing traffic safety data and focus on highlighting the differences between the empirical Bayes and the full Bayes approaches. We use an illustrative example to discuss a step-by-step Bayesian analysis of the data and to show some of the types of inferences that are possible within the full Bayesian framework.

Proteomic analysis of Intercept-treated platelets.

In the past decades, transfusion medicine has been driven by the quest for increased safety against transfusion-transmitted infections, mainly by better donor selection and by the development of improved serological and nucleic-acid-based screening assays. Recently, pathogen reduction technologies became available and started to be implemented in several countries, with the primary goal to fight against bacterial contamination of blood products, a rare but dramatic event against which there was no definitive measure. Though pathogen reduction technologies represent a quantum leap in transfusion safety, the biomedical efficacy of platelet concentrates (PCs) treated with various pathogen reduction techniques has been recently questioned by clinical studies. Here, a gel-based proteomic analysis of PCs (n=5), Intercept-treated or untreated, from pooled buffy-coat (10 donors per PC) at Days 1, 2 and 8, shows that the Intercept process that is the most widespread pathogen reduction technique to date, has relatively low impact on the proteome of treated platelets: the process induces modifications of DJ-1 protein, glutaredoxin 5, and G(i)alpha 2 protein. As for the impact of storage, chloride intracellular channel protein 4 (CLIC4) and actin increased independently of Intercept treatment during storage. Whereas alteration of the DJ-1 protein and glutaredoxin 5 points out an oxidative stress-associated lesion, modification of G(i)alpha2 directly connects a possible Intercept-associated lesion to haemostatic properties of Intercept-treated platelets. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: Integrated omics.

Evaluation of Safety Treatments for Roadside Culverts: TR-517, April 24, 2009

Roadside cross-drainage culverts have been found to impact vehicle accident injury levels. Designers have commonly used three safety treatments to protect errant drivers from culvert accidents. These treatments have included: culvert extension, guardrail installation and grating. In order to define which safety treatment is the most appropriate, benefit-cost analysis has used accident cost reduction to estimate societal gains earned by using any safety treatment. The purpose of this study was to estimate accident costs for a wide range of roadway and roadside characteristics so that designers can calculate benefit/cost ratios for culvert safety treatment options under any particular scenario. This study began with conducting a parametric study in order to find variables which have significant impact on accident cost changes. The study proceeded with highway scenario modeling which included scenarios with different values for combinations of roadway and roadside variables. These variables were chosen based upon findings from the parametric study and their values were assigned based upon highway classification. This study shows that the use of different culvert safety treatments should be flexible to roadway and roadside characteristics. It also shows that culvert extension and grating were the safety treatments found to produce the lowest accident costs for all highway scenarios modeled. Therefore, it is believed that the expanded adoption of culvert extension and culvert grates can improve overall highway safety.

Roadway Lighting and Safety: Phase II – Monitoring Quality, Durability and Efficiency, November 2011

This Phase II project follows a previous project titled Strategies to Address Nighttime Crashes at Rural, Unsignalized Intersections. Based on the results of the previous study, the Iowa Highway Research Board (IHRB) indicated interest in pursuing further research to address the quality of lighting, rather than just the presence of light, with respect to safety. The research team supplemented the literature review from the previous study, specifically addressing lighting level in terms of measurement, the relationship between light levels and safety, and lamp durability and efficiency. The Center for Transportation Research and Education (CTRE) teamed with a national research leader in roadway lighting, Virginia Tech Transportation Institute (VTTI) to collect the data. An integral instrument to the data collection efforts was the creation of the Roadway Monitoring System (RMS). The RMS allowed the research team to collect lighting data and approach information for each rural intersection identified in the previous phase. After data cleanup, the final data set contained illuminance data for 101 lighted intersections (of 137 lighted intersections in the first study). Data analysis included a robust statistical analysis based on Bayesian techniques. Average illuminance, average glare, and average uniformity ratio values were used to classify quality of lighting at the intersections.

Road Safety Audit for the Intersection of US 59 and IA 9 in Osceola County, Iowa Final Report, March 2012

The Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) requested a road safety audit (RSA) of the US 59/IA 9 intersection in northwestern Iowa, just south of the Minnesota border, to assess intersection environmental issues and crash history and recommend appropriate mitigation to address the identified safety issues at the intersection. Although the number of crashes at the location has not been significantly higher than the statewide average for similar intersections, the severity of these crashes has been of concern. This RSA was unique in that it included intersection video observation and recorded traffic conflict data analysis, along with the daylight and nighttime field reviews. This report outlines the findings and recommendations of the RSA team for addressing the safety concerns at this intersection.

An Analysis of OWI Arrests and Convictions in Iowa, 2011

The primary goal of the project was to document the demographic profile of OWI offenders in Iowa. The study is based on both aggregate and case-level data. The case level data produced a final sample of 118,675 OWI convictions. That occurred from 2000 through 2009. The great majority of convicted offenders were White males. From 2000 through 2009 the percentage of convictions received by women increased by 34%. Defendants’ average age of was 30 years old, and the age cohorts of 15 to 24, 25 to 34, and 34 to 45 were overrepresented among convicted offenders. Whites were underrepresented among OWI defendants. African Americans, Hispanics and Native Americans were overrepresented. From 2000 through 2009, the percentage of aggravated misdemeanor felony OWI convictions received by Hispanics and African Americans increased significantly. The percentage of OWI convictions received by women and African Americans increased significantly after implementation of the .08 BAC law. We did not find convincing evidence of a direct relationship between enforcement trends and the alcohol related traffic fatalities (ARTFs). However, the ten year Iowa conviction trends did provide evidence of a conviction lag effect on Iowa’s ARTFs. The research findings established the basis for a phase two project that would assess the efficacy of OWI sentencing practices in Iowa.

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Sequential Warning Lights in Nighttime Work Zone Tapers, TPF-5(081), 2011

Improving safety at nighttime work zones is important because of the extra visibility concerns. The deployment of sequential lights is an innovative method for improving driver recognition of lane closures and work zone tapers. Sequential lights are wireless warning lights that flash in a sequence to clearly delineate the taper at work zones. The effectiveness of sequential lights was investigated using controlled field studies. Traffic parameters were collected at the same field site with and without the deployment of sequential lights. Three surrogate performance measures were used to determine the impact of sequential lights on safety. These measures were the speeds of approaching vehicles, the number of late taper merges and the locations where vehicles merged into open lane from the closed lane. In addition, an economic analysis was conducted to monetize the benefits and costs of deploying sequential lights at nighttime work zones. The results of this study indicates that sequential warning lights had a net positive effect in reducing the speeds of approaching vehicles, enhancing driver compliance, and preventing passenger cars, trucks and vehicles at rural work zones from late taper merges. Statistically significant decreases of 2.21 mph mean speed and 1 mph 85% speed resulted with sequential lights. The shift in the cumulative speed distributions to the left (i.e. speed decrease) was also found to be statistically significant using the Mann-Whitney and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests. But a statistically significant increase of 0.91 mph in the speed standard deviation also resulted with sequential lights. With sequential lights, the percentage of vehicles that merged earlier increased from 53.49% to 65.36%. A benefit-cost ratio of around 5 or 10 resulted from this analysis of Missouri nighttime work zones and historical crash data. The two different benefitcost ratios reflect two different ways of computing labor costs.

Impacts on Safety of Left-Turn Treatment at High Speed Signalized Intersections, HR-347, 1994

Left-turning traffic is a major source of conflicts at intersections. Though an average of only 10% to 15% of all approach traffic turns left, these vehicles are involved in approximately 45% of all accidents. This report presents the results of research conducted to develop models which estimate approach accident rates at high speed signalized intersections. The objective of the research was to quantify the relationship between traffic and intersection characteristics, and accident potential of different left turn treatments. Geometric, turning movement counts, and traffic signal phasing data were collected at 100 intersections in Iowa using a questionnaire sent to municipalities. Not all questionnaires resulted in complete data and ultimately complete data were derived for 63 intersections providing a database of 248 approaches. Accident data for the same approaches were obtained from the Iowa Department of Transportation Accident Location and Analysis System (ALAS). Regression models were developed for two different dependent variables: 1) the ratio of the number of left turn accidents per approach to million left turning vehicles per approach, and 2) the ratio of accidents per approach to million traffic movements per approach. A number of regression models were developed for both dependent variables. One model using each dependent variable was developed for intersections with low, medium, and high left turning traffic volumes. As expected, the research indicates that protected left turn phasing has a lower accident potential than protected/permitted or permitted phasing. Left turn lanes and multiple lane approaches are beneficial for reducing accident rates, while raised medians increase the likelihood of accidents. Signals that are part of a signal system tend to have lower accident rates than isolated signals. The resulting regression models may be used to determine the likely impact of various left turn treatments on intersection accident rates. When designing an intersection approach, a traffic engineer may use the models to estimate the accident rate reduction as a result of improved lane configurations and left turn treatments. The safety benefits may then be compared to any costs associated with operational effects to the intersection (i.e., increased delay) to determine the benefits and costs of making intersection safety improvements.

Innovative Solutions for Slope Stability Reinforcement and Characterization: Vol. II, TR-489, 2005

Soil slope instability concerning highway infrastructure is an ongoing problem in Iowa, as slope failures endanger public safety and continue to result in costly repair work. While in the past extensive research has been conducted on slope stability investigations and analysis, this current research study consists of field investigations addressing both the characterization and reinforcement of such slope failures. While Volume I summarizes the research methods and findings of this study, Volume II provides procedural details for incorporating an infrequently-used testing technique, borehole shear tests, into practice. Fifteen slopes along Iowa highways were investigated, including thirteen slides (failed slopes), one unfailed slope, and one proposed embankment slope (the Sugar Creek Project). The slopes are mainly comprised of either clay shale or glacial till, and are generally gentle and of small scale, with slope angle ranging from 11 deg to 23 deg and height ranging from 6 to 23 m. Extensive field investigations and laboratory tests were performed for each slope. Field investigations included survey of slope geometry, borehole drilling, soil sampling, in-situ Borehole Shear Testing (BST) and ground water table measurement. Laboratory investigations mainly comprised of ring shear tests, soil basic property tests (grain size analysis and Atterberg limits test), mineralogy analyses, soil classifications, and natural water contents and density measurements on the representative soil samples from each slope. Extensive direct shear tests and a few triaxial compression tests and unconfined compression tests were also performed on undisturbed soil samples for the Sugar Creek Project. Based on the results of field and lab investigations, slope stability analysis was performed on each of the slopes to determine the possible factors resulting in the slope failures or to evaluate the potential slope instabilities using limit equilibrium methods. Deterministic slope analyses were performed for all the slopes. Probabilistic slope analysis and sensitivity study were also performed for the slope of the Sugar Creek Project. Results indicate that while the in-situ test rapidly provides effective shear strength parameters of soils, some training may be required for effective and appropriate use of the BST. Also, it is primarily intended to test cohesive soils and can produce erroneous results in gravelly soils. Additionally, the quality of boreholes affects test results, and disturbance to borehole walls should be minimized before test performance. A final limitation of widespread borehole shear testing may be its limited availability, as only about four to six test devices are currently being used in Iowa. Based on the data gathered in the field testing, reinforcement investigations are continued in Volume III.