Is there an advantage to be gained from adding digital image cytometry of brush cytology to a standard biopsy protocol in patients with Barrett's esophagus?

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: The current gold standard in Barrett's esophagus monitoring consists of four-quadrant biopsies every 1-2 cm in accordance with the Seattle protocol. Adding brush cytology processed by digital image cytometry (DICM) may further increase the detection of patients with Barrett's esophagus who are at risk of neoplasia. The aim of the present study was to assess the additional diagnostic value and accuracy of DICM when added to the standard histological analysis in a cross-sectional multicenter study of patients with Barrett's esophagus in Switzerland. METHODS: One hundred sixty-four patients with Barrett's esophagus underwent 239 endoscopies with biopsy and brush cytology. DICM was carried out on 239 cytology specimens. Measures of the test accuracy of DICM (relative risk, sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios) were obtained by dichotomizing the histopathology results (high-grade dysplasia or adenocarcinoma vs. all others) and DICM results (aneuploidy/intermediate pattern vs. diploidy). RESULTS: DICM revealed diploidy in 83% of 239 endoscopies, an intermediate pattern in 8.8%, and aneuploidy in 8.4%. An intermediate DICM result carried a relative risk (RR) of 12 and aneuploidy a RR of 27 for high-grade dysplasia/adenocarcinoma. Adding DICM to the standard biopsy protocol, a pathological cytometry result (aneuploid or intermediate) was found in 25 of 239 endoscopies (11%; 18 patients) with low-risk histology (no high-grade dysplasia or adenocarcinoma). During follow-up of 14 of these 18 patients, histological deterioration was seen in 3 (21%). CONCLUSION: DICM from brush cytology may add important information to a standard biopsy protocol by identifying a subgroup of BE-patients with high-risk cellular abnormalities.

Conseit aux fumeurs: mise à jour épidémiologique et clinique [Smoking cessation intervention: 2006 update]

Recent Swiss reports confirmed that several chemical products added to cigarettes may increase the level of dependence and therefore the consumption of cigarettes. Observational studies demonstrated the association between smoking and type II diabetes, that smoking one to four cigarettes daily increases significantly the risk of disease and that the relative risk of breast cancer among non smoking women exposed to passive smoking is increased by 30%. The safety of nicotine replacement therapy for patients with cardiovascular disorders has been confirmed. Among new pharmacological approaches, varenicline, rimonabant, topiramate and nicotine vaccine all appear promising.

Smoking, prevalence of disease and health service utilization among the Swiss population.

The data of the 1981-83 Swiss National Health Survey "SOMIPOPS", based on a randomly selected sample of 4,235 individuals aged 20 or over representative of the whole Swiss population, were used to investigate the relation between smoking, prevalence of disease and frequency of health care utilization. The risks of several conditions, including hypertension, myocardial infarction and other heart diseases, asthma, tuberculosis and kidney disease were elevated among ex-smokers. The diseases showing elevated risks among current smokers and significantly positive dose-risk trends included acute bronchitis (relative risk, RR = 3.2 for heavy cigarette smokers vs never smokers), chronic bronchitis or lung emphysema (RR = 2.0), gastro-duodenal ulcer (RR = 1.8) and bone fractures (RR = 1.6). For respiratory conditions, the risk of pipe or cigar smokers was comparable to that of moderate cigarette smokers, whereas for ulcer (RR = 4.1) or fractures (RR = 2.0) the point estimates were even higher than for heavy cigarette smokers. Smokers tended to consult more frequently general practitioners, used more other outpatients services, and were more frequently admitted to hospital during the year preceding the interview. These effects were consistent across strata of age, socio-economic indicators, and persisted after allowance for major identified potential distorting factors. Thus, the results of this survey confirm that smoking is an important cause of morbidity and a major contributory factor to the use of health services.

Impact of genetic SLC28 transporter and ITPA variants on ribavirin serum level, hemoglobin drop and therapeutic response in patients with HCV infection.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: In the last decade, pegylated interferon-α (PegIFN-α) plus ribavirin (RBV) was the standard treatment of chronic hepatitis C for genotype 1, and it remains the standard for genotypes 2 and 3. Recent studies reported associations between RBV-induced anemia and genetic polymorphisms of concentrative nucleoside transporters such as CNT3 (encoded by SLC28A3) and inosine triphosphatase (encoded by ITPA). We aimed at studying genetic determinants of RBV kinetics, efficacy and treatment-associated anemia. METHODS: We included 216 patients from two Swiss study cohorts (61% HCV genotype 1, 39% genotypes 2 or 3). Patients were analyzed for SLC28A2 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs11854484, SLC28A3 rs56350726, and SLC28A3 rs10868138 as well as ITPA SNPs rs1127354 and rs7270101, and followed for treatment-associated hemoglobin changes and sustained virological response (SVR). In 67 patients, RBV serum levels were additionally measured during treatment. RESULTS: Patients with SLC28A2 rs11854484 genotype TT had higher dosage- and body weight-adjusted RBV levels than those with genotypes TC or CC (p=0.02 and p=0.06 at weeks 4 and 8, respectively). ITPA SNP rs1127354 was associated with hemoglobin drop ≥3 g/dl during treatment, in genotype (relative risk (RR)=2.1, 95% CI 1.3-3.5) as well as allelic analyses (RR=2.0, 95%CI 1.2-3.4). SLC28A3 rs56350726 was associated with SVR in genotype (RR=2.2; 95% CI 1.1-4.3) as well as allelic analyses (RR=2.0, 95% CI 1.1-3.4). CONCLUSIONS: The newly identified association between RBV serum levels and SLC28A2 rs11854484 genotype, as well as the replicated association of ITPA and SLC28A3 genetic polymorphisms with RBV-induced anemia and treatment response, may support individualized treatment of chronic hepatitis C and warrant further investigation in larger studies.

Once-yearly zoledronic acid and days of disability, bed rest, and back pain: randomized, controlled HORIZON Pivotal Fracture Trial.

The objective of this study was to determine the effect of once-yearly zoledronic acid on the number of days of back pain and the number of days of disability (ie, limited activity and bed rest) owing to back pain or fracture in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. This was a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial in 240 clinical centers in 27 countries. Participants included 7736 postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. Patients were randomized to receive either a single 15-minute intravenous infusion of zoledronic acid (5 mg) or placebo at baseline, 12 months, and 24 months. The main outcome measures were self-reported number of days with back pain and the number of days of limited activity and bed rest owing to back pain or a fracture, and this was assessed every 3 months over a 3-year period. Our results show that although the incidence of back pain was high in both randomized groups, women randomized to zoledronic acid experienced, on average, 18 fewer days of back pain compared with placebo over the course of the trial (p = .0092). The back pain among women randomized to zoledronic acid versus placebo resulted in 11 fewer days of limited activity (p = .0017). In Cox proportional-hazards models, women randomized to zoledronic acid were about 6% less likely to experience 7 or more days of back pain [relative risk (RR) = 0.94, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.90-0.99] or limited activity owing to back pain (RR = 0.94, 95% CI 0.87-1.00). Women randomized to zoledronic acid were significantly less likely to experience 7 or more bed-rest days owing to a fracture (RR = 0.58, 95% CI 0.47-0.72) and 7 or more limited-activity days owing to a fracture (RR = 0.67, 95% CI 0.58-0.78). Reductions in back pain with zoledronic acid were independent of incident fracture. Our conclusion is that in women with postmenopausal osteoporosis, a once-yearly infusion with zoledronic acid over a 3-year period significantly reduced the number of days that patients reported back pain, limited activity owing to back pain, and limited activity and bed rest owing to a fracture.

Prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease in the canton of Vaud (Switzerland) : a population-based cohort study

Abstract : Background and aims: Because of the changing epidemiology of Inflammatory Bowel Diseases (IBD), we set out to characterize the population-based prevalence of Crohn's Disease (CD) and Ulcerative Colitis (UC) in a defined population of Switzerland. Methods: Adult IBD patients were identified by across-matched review of histological, hospital and gastroenterologist files throughout a geographical defined population (Canton of Vaud). Demographic factors statistically significantly associated with prevalence were evaluated using a stepwise Poisson regression analysis. Results were compared to IBD prevalence rates in other population-based studies and time trends were performed, based on a systematic literature review. Results: Age and sex-adjusted prevalence rates were 205.7 IBD (100.7 CD and 105.0 UC) cases per 10,5 inhabitants. Among 1016 IBD patients (519 CD and 497 UC), females outnumbered males in CD (p<0.001), but males were more represented in elderly UC patients (p=0.008). Thus, being a mate was statistically associated with UC (Relative Risk (RR) 1.25; p=0.013), whereas being a female was associated with CD (RR 1.27; p=0.007). Living in an urban zone was associated with both CD and UC (RR 1.49; p<0.001, 1.63; p<0.001, respectively). From 1960 to 2005, increases in UC and CD prevalences of 2.4% (95%CI, 2.1%-2.8%; p<0.001) and 3.6% (95%CI, 3.1%-4.1%; p<0.001) per annum were found in industrialised countries. Résumé de synthèse : 1. Introduction : Étant donné l'évolution constante des donnés épidémiologiques sur les maladies inflammatoires chroniques de l'intestin (MICI), nous avons recherché à caractériser la prévalence de la maladie de Crohn (MC) et de la colite ulcéreuse (CU) dans une population définie de la Suisse. 2. Méthodes : Nous avons identifiés, dans une population délimitée au Canton de Vaud, les patients adultes atteints de maladies inflammatoires de l'intestin en regroupant les données histologiques et médicales disponibles à l'hôpital et au cabinet du gastroentérologue. Pour nos analyses, nous avons utilisé la méthode de la régression de Poisson afin d'identifier les facteurs démographiques significativement liés avec la prévalence. Ensuite, nos résultats ont été comparés aux valeurs de prévalence des MICI issues d'autres études de population (revue systématique de la littérature) afin de dégager les tendances de leur évolution au cours du temps. 3. Résultats : La prévalence des MICI pondérée selon l'âge et le sexe était de 205.7 cas (100.7 MC et 105.0 CU) pour 10,5 habitants. Parmi les 1016 patients identifiés (519 MC et 497 CU), les femmes étaient plus représentées que les hommes dans la MC (P<0.0001), alors que la proportion d'hommes dépassait celle des femmes chez les patients âgés atteints de CU (p=0.008). Par conséquent, le fait d'être un homme était statistiquement associé à la CU (Risque relatif (RR) 1.25, p=0.013), et celui d'être une femme était associé à la MC (RR 1.27 ; p=0.007). L'étude a également montré qu'habiter en zone urbaine était significativement associé avec les deux types de MICI (RR (MC) 1.49; p<0.001, (CU) 1.63; p<0.001). Enfin, il a été mis en évidence dans les pays industrialisés, entre 1960 et 2005, une augmentation annuelle des taux de prévalences de 2.4% (95% IC, 2.1 %-2.8% ; p<0.001) pour la MC et de 3.6% (95% IC, 3.1 %-4.1 % ; p<0.001) pour la CU. 4. Conclusion : L'extrapolation de nos données au niveau Suisse fournit une estimation de 12 000 cas de MICI pour le pays soit 1 cas pour 500 habitants. Notre étude contribue également à démontrer une augmentation de la prévalence des MICI en Europe.

Surgical approach for total hip arthroplasty: direct lateral or posterior?

OBJECTIVE: To determine the risks of prosthesis dislocation, postoperative Trendelenburg gait, and sciatic nerve palsy after a posterior approach compared to a direct lateral approach for adult patients undergoing total hip arthroplasty (THA) for primary osteoarthritis (OA). METHODS: Medline, Embase, CINHAL, and Cochrane databases were searched until August 2003. All published trials comparing posterior and direct lateral surgical approaches to THA in adults with a diagnosis of primary hip osteoarthritis were collected. Retrieved articles were assessed independently for their methodological quality. RESULTS: Four prospective cohort studies involving 241 participants met the inclusion criteria. Regarding dislocation rate, no significant difference between posterior and direct lateral surgical approach was found (relative risk 0.35). The presence of postoperative Trendelenburg gait was not significantly different between surgical approaches. The risk of nerve palsy or injury was significantly higher with the direct lateral approach (relative risk 0.16). However, there were no significant differences when comparing this risk nerve by nerve, in particular for the sciatic nerve. Of the other outcomes considered, only the average range of internal rotation in extension of the hip was significantly higher (weighted mean difference 16 degrees ) in the posterior approach group (mean 35 degrees, SD 13 degrees ) compared to the direct lateral approach (mean 19 degrees, SD 13 degrees ). CONCLUSION: The quality and quantity of information extracted from the trials performed to date are insufficient to make a firm conclusion on the optimum choice of surgical approach for adult patients undergoing primary THA for OA.

Measuring time-varying economic fears with consumption-based stochastic discount factors

This paper analyzes empirically the volatility of consumption-based stochastic discount factors as a measure of implicit economic fears by studying its relationship with future economic and stock market cycles. Time-varying economic fears seem to be well captured by the volatility of stochastic discount factors. In particular, the volatility of recursive utility-based stochastic discount factor with contemporaneous growth explains between 9 and 34 percent of future changes in industrial production at short and long horizons respectively. They also explain ex-ante uncertainty and risk aversion. However, future stock market cycles are better explained by a similar stochastic discount factor with long-run consumption growth. This specification of the stochastic discount factor presents higher volatility and lower pricing errors than the specification with contemporaneous consumption growth.

Portfolio delegation under short-selling constraints

In this paper we study delegated portfolio management when themanager's ability to short-sell is restricted. Contrary to previousresults, we show that under moral hazard, linear performance-adjustedcontracts do provide portfolio managers with incentives to gatherinformation. The risk-averse manager's optimal effort is an increasingfunction of her share in the portfolio's return. This result affectsthe risk-averse investor's optimal contract decision. The first best,purely risk-sharing contract is proved to be suboptimal. Usingnumerical methods we show that the manager's share in the portfolioreturn is higher than the rst best share. Additionally, this deviationis shown to be: (i) increasing in the manager's risk aversion and (ii)larger for tighter short-selling restrictions. When the constraint isrelaxed the optimal contract converges towards the first best risksharing contract.

Measuring strategic uncertainty in coordination games

This paper explores three aspects of strategic uncertainty: its relation to risk, predictability of behavior and subjective beliefs of players. In a laboratory experiment we measure subjects certainty equivalents for three coordination games and one lottery. Behavior in coordination games is related to risk aversion, experience seeking, and age.From the distribution of certainty equivalents we estimate probabilities for successful coordination in a wide range of games. For many games, success of coordination is predictable with a reasonable error rate. The best response to observed behavior is close to the global-game solution. Comparing choices in coordination games with revealed risk aversion, we estimate subjective probabilities for successful coordination. In games with a low coordination requirement, most subjects underestimate the probability of success. In games with a high coordination requirement, most subjects overestimate this probability. Estimating probabilistic decision models, we show that the quality of predictions can be improved when individual characteristics are taken into account. Subjects behavior is consistent with probabilistic beliefs about the aggregate outcome, but inconsistent with probabilistic beliefs about individual behavior.

Short-term investment and equilibrium multiplicity

I study the effects of the heterogeneity of traders'horizon in the context of a 2-period NREE model whereall traders are risk averse. Owing to inventory effects,myopic trading behavior generates multiplicity ofequilibria. In particular, two distinct patterns arise.Along the first equilibrium, short term tradersanticipate higher second period price reaction toinformation arrival and, owing to risk aversion,scale back their trading intensity. This, in turn,reduces both risk sharing and information impoundinginto prices enforcing a high returns' volatility-lowprice informativeness equilibrium. In the second one,the opposite happens and a low volatility-high priceinformativeness equilibrium arises.

To use it or not to use it: differences between adolescent males carrying a weapon and those using it in a fight

Purpose Data indicate that 19% of male adolescents living in Switzerland carried a weapon in the last 12 months. The main objective of this research is to compare the characteristics of male adolescents carrying a weapon and having used it in a fight from those who have carried but not used it in the previous 12 months. Methods Data were drawn from the 2002 Swiss Multicenter Adolescent Survey on Health (SMASH02) data base, a survey including 7,548[3,710 males] in-school adolescents aged 16-20 years in Switzerland. Only males declaring having carried a weapon (N = 711; 19.2% of the sample) were included in the analysis. Three groups were created: those not having used a weapon (WO; N = 538 subjects), those having used a weapon in a fight once or twice (W12; N = 127), and those having used a weapon in a fight 3 or more times (W3+; N = 46). Multinomial logistic regression was performed to compare the 3 groups on individual, family, school, and social factors using WO as the reference category. Analyses were performed with STATA9. Results are presented as relative risk ratios (RRR). Results W12 males were significantly more likely to perceive their puberty as advanced compared to their peers (RRR: 2.1), to be foreign born (RRR: 2.6), to live in an urban environment (RRR: 1.9), to be in vocational school (RRR: 4.7), to have a poor school connectedness (RRR: 1.8), to skip classes (RRR: 2.1) and to quarrel while intoxicated (RRR: 5.3). W3+ males were significantly more likely to be foreign born (RRR: 3.6) and to live in an urban environment (RRR: 2.4), to be current users of illegal drugs other than cannabis (RRR: 3.8) and to quarrel while intoxicated (RRR: 4.1). No differences were found between groups for tobacco, alcohol, or cannabis use. Conclusions Within a national sample of Swiss youth aged 16-20 years, almost one fifth of male adolescents have carried a weapon in the previous 12 months. Nevertheless, most of them (75.7%) have never used a weapon in a fight. Whether they carry a weapon for defense purposes or as a manly behavior remains to be elucidated. However, urban foreign-born adolescents who quarrel while intoxicated are the most at risk of using a weapon in a fight, and therefore culturally-sensitive prevention approaches need to be developed to decrease violence in this specific population of youth. Having school problems or using illegal drugs other than cannabis seem to differentiate between those who use it in a fight occasionally (once or twice) and those who do it more often.

The gain-loss asymmetry and single-self preferences

Kahneman and Tversky asserted a fundamental asymmetry between gains and losses, namely a reflection effect which occurs when an individual prefers a sure gain of $ pz to anuncertain gain of $ z with probability p, while preferring an uncertain loss of $z with probability p to a certain loss of $ pz.We focus on this class of choices (actuarially fair), and explore the extent to which thereflection effect, understood as occurring at a range of wealth levels, is compatible with single-self preferences.We decompose the reflection effect into two components, a probability switch effect,which is compatible with single-self preferences, and a translation effect, which is not. To argue the first point, we analyze two classes of single-self, nonexpected utility preferences, which we label homothetic and weakly homothetic. In both cases, we characterize the switch effect as well as the dependence of risk attitudes on wealth.We also discuss two types of utility functions of a form reminiscent of expected utility but with distorted probabilities. Type I always distorts the probability of the worst outcome downwards, yielding attraction to small risks for all probabilities. Type II distorts low probabilities upwards, and high probabilities downwards, implying risk aversion when the probability of the worst outcome is low. By combining homothetic or weak homothetic preferences with Type I or Type II distortion functions, we present four explicit examples: All four display a switch effect and, hence, a form of reflection effect consistent a single self preferences.

Increasing prevalence of gastroschisis in Europe 1980-2002: a phenomenon restricted to younger mothers?

Gastroschisis is an abdominal wall defect more prevalent in offspring of young mothers. It is known to be increasing in prevalence despite the general decrease in the proportion of births to young European women. We investigated whether the increase in prevalence was restricted to the high-risk younger mothers. We analysed 936 cases of gastroschisis from 25 population-based registries in 15 European countries, 1980-2002. We fitted a Bayesian Hierarchical Model which allowed us to estimate trend, to estimate which registries were significantly different from the common distribution, and to adjust simultaneously for maternal age, time (in grouped years) and the random variation between registries. The maternal age-standardised prevalence (standardised to the year 2000 European maternal age structure) increased almost fourfold from 0.54 [95% Credible Interval (CrI) 0.37, 0.75] per 10,000 births in 1980-84 to 2.12 [95% CrI 1.85, 2.40] per 10,000 births in 2000-02. The relative risk of gastroschisis for mothers <20 years of age in 1995-2002 was 7.0 [95% CrI 5.6, 8.7]. There were geographical differences within Europe, with higher rates of gastroschisis in the UK, and lower rates in Italy after adjusting for maternal age. After standardising for regional variation, our results showed that the increase in risk over time was the same for mothers of all ages--the increase for mothers <20 years was 3.96-fold compared with an increase of 3.95-fold for mothers in the other age groups. These findings indicate that the phenomenon of increasing gastroschisis prevalence is not restricted to younger mothers only.

Estimating uncertainty of alcohol-attributable fractions for infectious and chronic diseases.

Background: Alcohol is a major risk factor for burden of disease and injuries globally. This paper presents a systematic method to compute the 95% confidence intervals of alcohol-attributable fractions (AAFs) with exposure and risk relations stemming from different sources.Methods: The computation was based on previous work done on modelling drinking prevalence using the gamma distribution and the inherent properties of this distribution. The Monte Carlo approach was applied to derive the variance for each AAF by generating random sets of all the parameters. A large number of random samples were thus created for each AAF to estimate variances. The derivation of the distributions of the different parameters is presented as well as sensitivity analyses which give an estimation of the number of samples required to determine the variance with predetermined precision, and to determine which parameter had the most impact on the variance of the AAFs.Results: The analysis of the five Asian regions showed that 150 000 samples gave a sufficiently accurate estimation of the 95% confidence intervals for each disease. The relative risk functions accounted for most of the variance in the majority of cases.Conclusions: Within reasonable computation time, the method yielded very accurate values for variances of AAFs.