Climate change and agricultrue-An Indian perspective

In this paper, we examine the major predictions made so far regarding the nature of climate change and its impacts on our region in the light of the known errors of the set of models and the observations over this century. The major predictions of the climate models about the impact of increased concentration of greenhouse gases ave at variance with the observations over the Indian region during the last century characterized by such increases and global warming. It is important to note that as far as the Indian region is concerned, the impact of year-to-year variation of the monsoon will continue to be dominant over longer period changes even in the presence of global warming. Recent studies have also brought out the uncertainties in the yields simulated by crop models. It is suggested that a deeper understanding of the links between climate and agricultural productivity is essential for generating reliable predictions of impact of climate change. Such an insight is also required for identifying cropping patterns and management practices which are tailored for sustained maximum yield in the face of the vagaries of the monsoon.

Climate change and Indian forests

An assessment of the impact of projected climate change on forest ecosystems in India based on climate projections of the Regional Climate Model of the Hadley Centre (HadRM3) and the global dynamic vegetation model IBIS for A1B scenario is conducted for short-term (2021-2050) and long-term (2071-2100) periods. Based on the dynamic global vegetation modelling, vulnerable forested regions of India have been identified to assist in planning adaptation interventions. The assessment of climate impacts showed that at the national level, about 45% of the forested grids is projected to undergo change. Vulnerability assessment showed that such vulnerable forested grids are spread across India. However, their concentration is higher in the upper Himalayan stretches, parts of Central India, northern Western Ghats and the Eastern Ghats. In contrast, the northeastern forests, southern Western Ghats and the forested regions of eastern India are estimated to be the least vulnerable. Low tree density, low biodiversity status as well as higher levels of fragmentation, in addition to climate change, contribute to the vulnerability of these forests. The mountainous forests (sub-alpine and alpine forest, the Himalayan dry temperate forest and the Himalayan moist temperate forest) are susceptible to the adverse effects of climate change. This is because climate change is predicted to be larger for regions that have greater elevations.

Climate change vulnerability profiles for North East India

Climate change vulnerability profiles are developed at the district level for agriculture, water and forest sectors for the North East region of India for the current and projected future climates. An index-based approach was used where a set of indicators that represent key sectors of vulnerability (agriculture, forest, water) is selected using the statistical technique principal component analysis. The impacts of climate change on key sectors as represented by the changes in the indicators were derived from impact assessment models. These impacted indicators were utilized for the calculation of the future vulnerability to climate change. Results indicate that majority of the districts in North East India are subject to climate induced vulnerability currently and in the near future. This is a first of its kind study that exhibits ranking of districts of North East India on the basis of the vulnerability index values. The objective of such ranking is to assist in: (i) identifying and prioritizing the most vulnerable sectors and districts; (ii) identifying adaptation interventions, and (iii) mainstreaming adaptation in development programmes.

On the basin-scale detection and attribution of human-induced climate change in monsoon precipitation and streamflow

Detecting and quantifying the presence of human-induced climate change in regional hydrology is important for studying the impacts of such changes on the water resources systems as well as for reliable future projections and policy making for adaptation. In this article a formal fingerprint-based detection and attribution analysis has been attempted to study the changes in the observed monsoon precipitation and streamflow in the rain-fed Mahanadi River Basin in India, considering the variability across different climate models. This is achieved through the use of observations, several climate model runs, a principal component analysis and regression based statistical downscaling technique, and a Genetic Programming based rainfall-runoff model. It is found that the decreases in observed hydrological variables across the second half of the 20th century lie outside the range that is expected from natural internal variability of climate alone at 95% statistical confidence level, for most of the climate models considered. For several climate models, such changes are consistent with those expected from anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. However, unequivocal attribution to human-induced climate change cannot be claimed across all the climate models and uncertainties in our detection procedure, arising out of various sources including the use of models, cannot be ruled out. Changes in solar irradiance and volcanic activities are considered as other plausible natural external causes of climate change. Time evolution of the anthropogenic climate change ``signal'' in the hydrological observations, above the natural internal climate variability ``noise'' shows that the detection of the signal is achieved earlier in streamflow as compared to precipitation for most of the climate models, suggesting larger impacts of human-induced climate change on streamflow than precipitation at the river basin scale.

Assessing Indian cities for vulnerability to climate change

This paper critically evaluates the vulnerability of Indian cities to climate change in the context of sustainable development. City-scale indicators are developed for multiple dimensions of security and vulnerability. Factor analysis is employed to construct a vulnerability ranking of 46 major Indian cities. The analysis reveals that high aggregate levels of wealth do not necessarily make a city less vulnerable. Two, cities with diversified economic opportunities could adapt better to the new risks posed by climate change, than cities with unipolar opportunities. Three, highly polluted cities are more vulnerable to the health impacts of climate change, and cities with severe groundwater depletion will find it difficult to cope with increased rainfall variability. Policy and sustainability issues are discussed for these results.

Bioenergy and climate change mitigation: an assessment

Bioenergy deployment offers significant potential for climate change mitigation, but also carries considerable risks. In this review, we bring together perspectives of various communities involved in the research and regulation of bioenergy deployment in the context of climate change mitigation: Land-use and energy experts, land-use and integrated assessment modelers, human geographers, ecosystem researchers, climate scientists and two different strands of life-cycle assessment experts. We summarize technological options, outline the state-of-the-art knowledge on various climate effects, provide an update on estimates of technical resource potential and comprehensively identify sustainability effects. Cellulosic feedstocks, increased end-use efficiency, improved land carbon-stock management and residue use, and, when fully developed, BECCS appear as the most promising options, depending on development costs, implementation, learning, and risk management. Combined heat and power, efficient biomass cookstoves and small-scale power generation for rural areas can help to promote energy access and sustainable development, along with reduced emissions. We estimate the sustainable technical potential as up to 100EJ: high agreement; 100-300EJ: medium agreement; above 300EJ: low agreement. Stabilization scenarios indicate that bioenergy may supply from 10 to 245EJyr(-1) to global primary energy supply by 2050. Models indicate that, if technological and governance preconditions are met, large-scale deployment (>200EJ), together with BECCS, could help to keep global warming below 2 degrees degrees of preindustrial levels; but such high deployment of land-intensive bioenergy feedstocks could also lead to detrimental climate effects, negatively impact ecosystems, biodiversity and livelihoods. The integration of bioenergy systems into agriculture and forest landscapes can improve land and water use efficiency and help address concerns about environmental impacts. We conclude that the high variability in pathways, uncertainties in technological development and ambiguity in political decision render forecasts on deployment levels and climate effects very difficult. However, uncertainty about projections should not preclude pursuing beneficial bioenergy options.

PICES-GLOBEC International Program on Climate Change and Carrying Capacity: Report of the 1999 MONITOR and REX Workshops, and the 2000 MODEL Workshop on Lower Trophic Level Modelling

Table of Contents [pdf, 0.11 Mb] Executive Summary [pdf, 0.07 Mb] MODEL Task Team Workshop Report Final Report of the International Workshop to Develop a Prototype Lower Trophic Level Ecosystem Model for Comparison of Different Marine Ecosystems in the North Pacific [pdf, 11.64 Mb] Report of the 1999 MONITOR Task Team Workshop [pdf, 0.32 Mb] Report of the 1999 REX Task Team Workshop Herring and Euphausiid population dynamics Douglas E. Hay and Bruce McCarter Spatial, temporal and life-stage variation in herring diets in British Columbia [pdf, 0.10 Mb] Augustus J. Paul and J. M. Paul Over winter changes in herring from Prince William Sound, Alaska [pdf, 0.08 Mb] N. G. Chupisheva Qualitative texture characteristic of herring (Clupea pallasi pallasi) pre-larvae developed from the natural and artificial spawning-grounds in Severnaya Bay (Peter the Great Bay) [pdf, 0.07 Mb] Gordon A. McFarlane, Richard J. Beamish and Jake SchweigertPacific herring: Common factors have opposite impacts in adjacent ecosystems [pdf, 0.15 Mb] Tokimasa Kobayashi, Keizou Yabuki, Masayoshi Sasaki and Jun-Ichi Kodama Long-term fluctuation of the catch of Pacific herring in Northern Japan [pdf, 0.39 Mb] Jacqueline M. O’Connell Holocene fish remains from Saanich Inlet, British Columbia, Canada [pdf, 0.40 Mb] Elsa R. Ivshina and Irina Y. Bragina On relationship between crustacean zooplankton (Euphausiidae and Copepods) and Sakhalin-Hokkaido herring (Tatar Strait, Sea of Japan) [pdf, 0.14 Mb] Stein Kaartvbeedt Fish predation on krill and krill antipredator behaviour [pdf, 0.08 Mb] Nikolai I. Naumenko Euphausiids and western Bering Sea herring feeding [pdf, 0.07 Mb] David M. Checkley, Jr. Interactions Between Fish and Euphausiids and Potential Relations to Climate and Recruitment [pdf, 0.08 Mb] Vladimir I. Radchenko and Elena P. Dulepova Shall we expect the Korf-Karaginsky herring migrations into the offshore western Bering Sea? [pdf, 0.75 Mb] Young Shil Kang Euphausiids in the Korean waters and its relationship with major fish resources [pdf, 0.29 Mb] William T. Peterson, Leah Feinberg and Julie Keister Ecological Zonation of euphausiids off central Oregon [pdf, 0.11 Mb] Scott M. Rumsey Environmentally forced variability in larval development and stage-structure: Implications for the recruitment of Euphausia pacifica (Hansen) in the Southern California Bight [pdf, 3.26 Mb] Scott M. Rumsey Inverse modelling of developmental parameters in Euphausia pacifica: The relative importance of spawning history and environmental forcing to larval stage-frequency distributions [pdf, 98.79 Mb] Michio J. Kishi, Hitoshi Motono & Kohji Asahi An ecosystem model with zooplankton vertical migration focused on Oyashio region [pdf, 33.32 Mb] PICES-GLOBEC Implementation Panel on Climate Change and Carrying Capacity Program Executive Committee and Task Team List [pdf, 0.05 Mb] (Document pdf contains 142 pages)

Coastal brownfields and adaptation to climate change: Discussions on potential hazards from contaminated groundwater displacement due to saltwater incursion

Toxic-waste associated with coastal brownfield sites can pose serious risks to human and environmental health. In light of anticipated sea-level rise (SLR) due to global climate change, coastal brownfields require heightened attention. The primary intent of this study is to pose questions and encourage discussion of this problem among policy makers. Impacts from SLR on coastal zones are examined within a brownfield policy framework and, current coastal brownfield policy discussions with respect to SLR are also examined. (PDF contains 4 pages)

National perspectives on climate change adaptation: A panel discussion of climate change adaptation efforts in diverse coastal regions of the United States

Climate change has rapidly emerged as a significant threat to coastal areas around the world. While uncertainty regarding distribution, intensity, and timescale inhibits our ability to accurately forecast potential impacts, it is widely accepted that changes in global climate will result in a variety of significant environmental, social, and economic impacts. Coastal areas are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change and the implications of sea-level rise, and coastal communities must develop the capacity to adapt to climate change in order to protect people, property, and the environment along our nation’s coasts. The U.S. coastal zone is highly complex and variable, consisting of several regions that are characterized by unique geographic, economic, social and environmental factors. The degree of risk and vulnerability associated with climate change can vary greatly depending on the exposure and sensitivity of coastal resources within a given area. The ability of coastal communities to effectively adapt to climate change will depend greatly on their ability to develop and implement feasible strategies that address unique local and regional factors. A wide variety of resources are available to assist coastal states in developing their approach to climate change adaptation. However, given the complex and variable nature of the U.S. coastline, it is unlikely that a single set of guidelines can adequately address the full range of adaptation needs at the local and regional levels. This panel seeks to address some of the unique local and regional issues facing coastal communities throughout the U.S. including anticipated physical, social, economic and environmental impacts, existing resources and guidelines for climate change adaptation, current approaches to climate change adaptation planning, and challenges and opportunities for developing adaptation strategies. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Climate change adaptation and planning: An example from Kailua Beach, Oahu, Hawaii

The University of Hawaii Sea Grant College Program (UHSG) in partnership with the Hawaii Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR), Office of Conservation and Coastal Lands (OCCL) is developing a beach and dune management plan for Kailua Beach on the eastern shoreline of Oahu. The objective of the plan is to develop a comprehensive beach management and land use development plan for Kailua Beach that reflects the state of scientific understanding of beach processes in Kailua Bay and abutting shoreline areas and is intended to provide long-term recommendations to adapting to climate change including potential coastal hazards such as sea level rise. The development of the plan has lead to wider recognition of the significance of projected sea level rise to the region and provides the rational behind some of the land use conservation strategies. The plan takes on a critical light given global predictions for continued, possibly accelerated, sea-level rise and the ongoing focus of intense development along the Hawaiian shoreline. Hawaii’s coastal resource managers are faced with the daunting prospect of managing the effects of erosion while simultaneously monitoring and regulating high-risk coastal development that often impacts the shoreline. The beach and dune preservation plan is the first step in a more comprehensive effort prepare for and adapt to sea level rise and ensure the preservation of the beach and dune ecosystem for the benefit of present and future generations. The Kailua Beach and Dune Management plan is intended to be the first in a series of regional plans in Hawaii to address climate change adaptation through land use planning. (PDF contains 3 pages)

Adapting to climate change: Combining economics and geomorphology in coastal policy

How is climate change affecting our coastal environment? How can coastal communities adapt to sea level rise and increased storm risk? These questions have garnered tremendous interest from scientists and policy makers alike, as the dynamic coastal environment is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Over half the world population lives and works in a coastal zone less than 120 miles wide, thereby being continuously affected by the changes in the coastal environment [6]. Housing markets are directly influenced by the physical processes that govern coastal systems. Beach towns like Oak Island in North Carolina (NC) face severe erosion, and the tax assesed value of one coastal property fell by 93% in 2007 [9]. With almost ninety percent of the sandy beaches in the US facing moderate to severe erosion [8], coastal communities often intervene to stabilize the shoreline and hold back the sea in order to protect coastal property and infrastructure. Beach nourishment, which is the process of rebuilding a beach by periodically replacing an eroding section of the beach with sand dredged from another location, is a policy for erosion control in many parts of the US Atlantic and Pacific coasts [3]. Beach nourishment projects in the United States are primarily federally funded and implemented by the Army Corps of Engineers (ACE) after a benefit-cost analysis. Benefits from beach nourishment include reduction in storm damage and recreational benefits from a wider beach. Costs would include the expected cost of construction, present value of periodic maintenance, and any external cost such as the environmental cost associated with a nourishment project (NOAA). Federal appropriations for nourishment totaled $787 million from 1995 to 2002 [10]. Human interventions to stabilize shorelines and physical coastal dynamics are strongly coupled. The value of the beach, in the form of storm protection and recreation amenities, is at least partly capitalized into property values. These beach values ultimately influence the benefit-cost analysis in support of shoreline stabilization policy, which, in turn, affects the shoreline dynamics. This paper explores the policy implications of this circularity. With a better understanding of the physical-economic feedbacks, policy makers can more effectively design climate change adaptation strategies. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Predicting the effects of climate change on sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida

Rising global temperatures threaten the survival of many plant and animal species. Having already risen at an unprecedented rate in the past century, temperatures are predicted to rise between 0.3 and 7.5C in North America over the next 100 years (Hawkes et al. 2007). Studies have documented the effects of climate warming on phenology (timing of seasonal activities), with observations of early arrival at breeding grounds, earlier ends to the reproductive season, and delayed autumnal migrations (Pike et al. 2006). In addition, for species not suited to the physiological demands of cold winter temperatures, increasing temperatures could shift tolerable habitats to higher latitudes (Hawkes et al. 2007). More directly, climate warming will impact thermally sensitive species like sea turtles, who exhibit temperature-dependent sexual determination. Temperatures in the middle third of the incubation period determine the sex of sea turtle offspring, with higher temperatures resulting in a greater abundance of female offspring. Consequently, increasing temperatures from climate warming would drastically change the offspring sex ratio (Hawkes et al. 2007). Of the seven extant species of sea turtles, three (leatherback, Kemp’s ridley, and hawksbill) are critically endangered, two (olive ridley and green) are endangered, and one (loggerhead) is threatened. Considering the predicted scenarios of climate warming and the already tenuous status of sea turtle populations, it is essential that efforts are made to understand how increasing temperatures may affect sea turtle populations and how these species might adapt in the face of such changes. In this analysis, I seek to identify the impact of changing climate conditions over the next 50 years on the availability of sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida given predicted changes in temperature and precipitation. I predict that future conditions in Florida will be less suitable for sea turtle nesting during the historic nesting season. This may imply that sea turtles will nest at a different time of year, in more northern latitudes, to a lesser extent, or possibly not at all. It seems likely that changes in temperature and precipitation patterns will alter the distribution of sea turtle nesting locations worldwide, provided that beaches where the conditions are suitable for nesting still exist. Hijmans and Graham (2006) evaluate a range of climate envelope models in terms of their ability to predict species distributions under climate change scenarios. Their results suggested that the choice of species distribution model is dependent on the specifics of each individual study. Fuller et al. (2008) used a maximum entropy approach to model the potential distribution of 11 species in the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska under a series of projected climate scenarios. Recently, Pike (in press) developed Maxent models to investigate the impacts of climate change on green sea turtle nest distribution and timing. In each of these studies, a set of environmental predictor variables (including climate variables), for which ‘current’ conditions are available and ‘future’ conditions have been projected, is used in conjunction with species occurrence data to map potential species distribution under the projected conditions. In this study, I will take a similar approach in mapping the potential sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida by developing a Maxent model based on environmental and climate data and projecting the model for future climate data. (PDF contains 5 pages)

Improving the chances for developing coastal country success in adapting to climate change

There is an unequivocal scientific consensus that increases in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere drive warming temperatures of air and sea, and acidification of the world’s oceans from carbon dioxide absorbed by the oceans. These changes in turn can induce shifts in precipitation patterns, sea level rise, and more frequent and severe extreme weather events (e.g. storms and sea surge). All of these impacts are already being witnessed in the world’s coastal regions and are projected to intensify in years to come. Taken together, these impacts are likely to result in significant alteration of natural habitats and coastal ecosystems, and increased coastal hazards in low-lying areas. They can affect fishers, coastal communities and resource users, recreation and tourism, and coastal infrastructure. Approaches to planned adaptation to these impacts can be drawn from the lessons and good practices from global experience in Integrated Coastal Management (ICM). The recently published USAID Guidebook on Adapting to Coastal Climate Change (USAID 2009) is directed at practitioners, development planners, and coastal management professionals in developing countries. It offers approaches for assessing vulnerability to climate change and climate variability in communities and outlines how to develop and implement adaptation measures at the local and national levels. Six best practices for coastal adaptation are featured in the USAID Guidebook on Adapting to Coastal Climate Change and summarized in the following sections. (PDF contains 3 pages)

Effects of Climate Change on the European Nuclear Power Sector

4 p.

Modelling the Effect of Climate Change on Environmental Pollution Losses from Dairy Systems in the UK

21 p.