Coalition Structures and Policy Change in a Consensus Democracy

This paper studies the relation between coalition structures in policy processes and policy change. While different factors such as policy images, learning processes, external events, or venue shopping are important to explain policy change, coalition structures within policy processes are often neglected. However, policy change happens as a result of negotiations and coordination among coalitions within policy processes. The paper analyzes how conflict, collaboration, and power relations among coalitions of actors influence policy change in an institutional context of a consensus democracy. Empirically, I rely on a Qualitative Comparative Analysis to conduct a cross-sector comparison of the 11 most important policy processes in Switzerland between 2001 and 2006. Coalition structures with low conflict and strong collaboration among coalitions as well as structures with dominant coalitions and weak collaboration both facilitate major policy change. Competing coalitions that are separated by strong conflict but still collaborate strongly produce policy outputs that are close to the status quo.

Temperate Mountain Forest Biodiversity under Climate Change: Compensating Negative Effects by Increasing Structural Complexity

Species adapted to cold-climatic mountain environments are expected to face a high risk of range contractions, if not local extinctions under climate change. Yet, the populations of many endothermic species may not be primarily affected by physiological constraints, but indirectly by climate-induced changes of habitat characteristics. In mountain forests, where vertebrate species largely depend on vegetation composition and structure, deteriorating habitat suitability may thus be mitigated or even compensated by habitat management aiming at compositional and structural enhancement. We tested this possibility using four cold-adapted bird species with complementary habitat requirements as model organisms. Based on species data and environmental information collected in 300 1-km2 grid cells distributed across four mountain ranges in central Europe, we investigated (1) how species’ occurrence is explained by climate, landscape, and vegetation, (2) to what extent climate change and climate-induced vegetation changes will affect habitat suitability, and (3) whether these changes could be compensated by adaptive habitat management. Species presence was modelled as a function of climate, landscape and vegetation variables under current climate; moreover, vegetation-climate relationships were assessed. The models were extrapolated to the climatic conditions of 2050, assuming the moderate IPCC-scenario A1B, and changes in species’ occurrence probability were quantified. Finally, we assessed the maximum increase in occurrence probability that could be achieved by modifying one or multiple vegetation variables under altered climate conditions. Climate variables contributed significantly to explaining species occurrence, and expected climatic changes, as well as climate-induced vegetation trends, decreased the occurrence probability of all four species, particularly at the low-altitudinal margins of their distribution. These effects could be partly compensated by modifying single vegetation factors, but full compensation would only be achieved if several factors were changed in concert. The results illustrate the possibilities and limitations of adaptive species conservation management under climate change.

Advances in understanding energy consumption behavior and the governance of its change - Outline of an integrated framework

Transforming today’s energy systems in industrialized countries requires a substantial reduction of the total energy consumption at the individual level. Selected instruments have been found to be effective in changing people’s behavior in single domains. However, the so far weak success story on reducing overall energy consumption indicates that our understanding of the determining factors of individual energy consumption as well as of its change is far from being conclusive. Among others, the scientific state of the art is dominated by analyzing single domains of consumption and by neglecting embodied energy. It also displays strong disciplinary splits and the literature often fails to distinguish between explaining behavior and explaining change of behavior. Moreover, there are knowledge gaps regarding the legitimacy and effectiveness of the governance of individual consumption behavior and its change. Against this backdrop, the aim of this paper is to establish an integrated interdisciplinary framework that offers a systematic basis for linking the different aspects in research on energy related consumption behavior, thus paving the way for establishing a better evidence base to inform societal actions. The framework connects the three relevant analytical aspects of the topic in question: (1) It systematically and conceptually frames the objects, i.e. the energy consumption behavior and its change (explananda); (2) it structures the factors that potentially explain the energy consumption behavior and its change (explanantia); (3) it provides a differentiated understanding of change inducing interventions in terms of governance. Based on the existing states of the art approaches from different disciplines within the social sciences the proposed framework is supposed to guide interdisciplinary empirical research.

Explaining Endogenous Control Change in Outsourced Software Projects

Given the centrality of control for achieving success in outsourced software projects, past research has identified key exogenous factors that determine the choice of controls. This view of exogenously driven control choice is based on a number of assumptions; particularly, clients and vendors are seen as separate cognitive entities that combat opportunistic threats under environmental uncertainty by one-off choices or infrequent revisions of controls. In this paper we complement this perspective by acknowledging that an outsourced software project may be characterized as a collective, evolving process faced with the challenge of coping with cognitive limitations of both client and vendor through a continuous process of learning. We argue that if viewed in this way, controls are less subject of a deliberate choice but rather are subject of endogenously driven change, i.e. controls evolve in close interaction with the evolving software project. Accordingly, we suggest a complementary model of endogenous control, where controls mediate individual and collective learning processes. Our research contributes to a better understanding of the dynamics in outsourced software projects. It also spells out methodological implications that may help improve cross-section control research.

Monitoring the temporal development of natural hazard risks as a basis indicator for climate change adaptation.

The potential effects of climatic changes on natural risks are widely discussed. But the formulation of strategies for adapting risk management practice to climate changes requires knowledge of the related risks for people and economic values. The main goals of this work were (1) the development of a method for analysing and comparing risks induced by different natural hazard types, (2) highlighting the most relevant natural hazard processes and related damages, (3) the development of an information system for the monitoring of the temporal development of natural hazard risk and (4) the visualisation of the resulting information for the wider public. A comparative exposure analysis provides the basis for pointing out the hot spots of natural hazard risks in the province of Carinthia, Austria. An analysis of flood risks in all municipalities provides the basis for setting the priorities in the planning of flood protection measures. The methods form the basis for a monitoring system that periodically observes the temporal development of natural hazard risks. This makes it possible firstly to identify situations in which natural hazard risks are rising and secondly to differentiate between the most relevant factors responsible for the increasing risks. The factors that most influence the natural risks could be made evident.

Hand in hand: public endorsement of climate change mitigation and adaptation

This research investigated how an individual’s endorsements of mitigation and adaptation relate to each other, and how well each of these can be accounted for by relevant social psychological factors. Based on survey data from two European convenience samples (N = 616 / 309) we found that public endorsements of mitigation and adaptation are strongly associated: Someone who is willing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation) is also willing to prepare for climate change impacts (adaptation). Moreover, people endorsed the two response strategies for similar reasons: People who believe that climate change is real and dangerous, who have positive attitudes about protecting the environment and the climate, and who perceive climate change as a risk, are willing to respond to climate change. Furthermore, distinguishing between (spatially) proximal and distant risk perceptions suggested that the idea of portraying climate change as a proximal (i.e., local) threat might indeed be effective in promoting personal actions. However, to gain endorsement of broader societal initiatives such as policy support, it seems advisable to turn to the distant risks of climate change. The notion that “localising” climate change might not be the panacea for engaging people in this domain is discussed in regard to previous theory and research.

Shifts in microbial communities do not explain the response of grassland ecosystem function to plant functional composition and rainfall change

Ecosystem functioning in grasslands is regulated by a range of biotic and abiotic factors, and the role of microbial communities in regulating ecosystem function has been the subject of much recent scrutiny. However, there are still knowledge gaps regarding the impacts of rainfall and vegetation change upon microbial communities and the implications of these changes for ecosystem functioning. We investigated this issue using data from an experimental mesotrophic grassland study in south-east England, which had been subjected to four years of rainfall and plant functional composition manipulations. Soil respiration, nitrogen and phosphorus stocks were measured, and the abundance and community structure of soil microbes were characterised using quantitative PCR and multiplex-TRFLP analysis, respectively. Bacterial community structure was strongly related to the plant functional composition treatments, but not the rainfall treatment. However, there was a strong effect of both rainfall change and plant functional group upon bacterial abundance. There was also a weak interactive effect of the two treatments upon fungal community structure, although fungal abundance was not affected by either treatment. Next, we used a statistical approach to assess whether treatment effects on ecosystem function were regulated by the microbial community. Our results revealed that ecosystem function was influenced by the experimental treatments, but was not related to associated changes to the microbial community. Overall, these results indicate that changes in fungal and bacterial community structure and abundance play a relatively minor role in determining grassland ecosystem function responses to precipitation and plant functional composition change, and that direct effects on soil physical and chemical properties and upon plant and microbial physiology may play a more important role.

Effects of Antiseptic Solutions Commonly Used in Dentistry on Bone Viability, Bone Morphology, and Release of Growth Factors

PURPOSE Antiseptic solutions are commonly used in dentistry for a number of sterilization procedures, including harvesting of bone chips, irrigation of extraction sockets, and sterilization of osteonecrotic bone. Despite its widespread use, little information is available regarding the effects of various antiseptic solutions on bone cell viability, morphology, and the release of growth factors. MATERIALS AND METHODS The antiseptic solutions included 1) 0.5% povidone iodine (PI), 2) 0.2% chlorhexidine diguluconate (CHX), 3) 1% hydrogen peroxide (H2O2), and 4) 0.25% sodium hypochlorite (HYP). Bone samples collected from porcine mandibular cortical bone were rinsed in the antiseptic solutions for 10 minutes and assessed for cell viability using an MTS assay and protein release of transforming growth factor (TGF-β1), bone morphogenetic protein 2 (BMP2), vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), interleukin (IL)-1β, and receptor activator of nuclear factor κB ligand (RANKL) using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay at 15 minutes and 4 hours after rinsing. RESULTS After antiseptic rinsing, changes to the surface protein content showed marked alterations, with an abundant protein layer remaining on CHX-rinsed bone samples. The amount of surface protein content gradually decreased in the following order: CHX, H2O2, PI, and HYP. A similar trend was also observed for the relative cell viability from within bone samples after rinsing, with up to 6 times more viable cells found in the CHX-rinsed bone samples than in the HYP- and PI-rinsed samples. An analysis of the growth factors found that both HYP and PI had significantly lower VEGF and TGF-β1 protein release from bone samples at 15 minutes and 4 hours after rinsing compared with CHX and H2O2. A similar trend was observed for RANKL and IL-1β protein release, although no change was observed for BMP2. CONCLUSIONS The results from the present study have demonstrated that antiseptic solutions present with very different effects on bone samples after 10 minutes of rinsing. Rinsing with CHX maintained significantly higher cell viability and protein release of growth factors potent to the bone remodeling cycle.

Systematic analysis of factors associated with progression and regression of ulcerative colitis in 918 patients.

BACKGROUND Studies that systematically assess change in ulcerative colitis (UC) extent over time in adult patients are scarce. AIM To assess changes in disease extent over time and to evaluate clinical parameters associated with this change. METHODS Data from the Swiss IBD cohort study were analysed. We used logistic regression modelling to identify factors associated with a change in disease extent. RESULTS A total of 918 UC patients (45.3% females) were included. At diagnosis, UC patients presented with the following disease extent: proctitis [199 patients (21.7%)], left-sided colitis [338 patients (36.8%)] and extensive colitis/pancolitis [381 (41.5%)]. During a median disease duration of 9 [4-16] years, progression and regression was documented in 145 patients (15.8%) and 149 patients (16.2%) respectively. In addition, 624 patients (68.0%) had a stable disease extent. The following factors were identified to be associated with disease progression: treatment with systemic glucocorticoids [odds ratio (OR) 1.704, P = 0.025] and calcineurin inhibitors (OR: 2.716, P = 0.005). No specific factors were found to be associated with disease regression. CONCLUSIONS Over a median disease duration of 9 [4-16] years, about two-thirds of UC patients maintained the initial disease extent; the remaining one-third had experienced either progression or regression of the disease extent.

Diagnosing institutional barriers and opportunities for adaptation to climate change

Institutions are one of the decisive factors which enable, constrain and shape adaptation to the impacts of climate change, variability and extreme events. However, current understanding of institutions in adaptation situations is fragmented across the scientific community, evidence diverges, and cumulative learning beyond single studies is limited. This study adopts a diagnostic approach to elaborate a nuanced understanding of institutional barriers and opportunities in climate adaptation by means of a model-centred meta-analysis of 52 case studies of public climate adaptation in Europe. The first result is a novel taxonomy of institutional attributes in adaptation situations. It conceptually organises and decomposes the many details of institutions that empirical research has shown to shape climate adaptation. In the second step, the paper identifies archetypical patterns of institutional traps and trade-offs which hamper adaptation. Thirdly, corresponding opportunities are identified that enable actors to alleviate, prevent or overcome specific institutional traps or trade-offs. These results cast doubt on the validity of general institutional design principles for successful adaptation. In contrast to generic principles, the identified opportunities provide leverage to match institutions to specific governance problems that are encountered in specific contexts. Taken together, the results may contribute to more coherence and integration of adaptation research that we need if we are to foster learning about the role of institutions in adaptation situations in a cumulative fashion.

Impairments of peripheral motion change detection during smooth pursuit eye movements

Introduction: In team sports the ability to use peripheral vision is essential to track a number of players and the ball. By using eye-tracking devices it was found that players either use fixations and saccades to process information on the pitch or use smooth pursuit eye movements (SPEM) to keep track of single objects (Schütz, Braun, & Gegenfurtner, 2011). However, it is assumed that peripheral vision can be used best when the gaze is stable while it is unknown whether motion changes can be equally well detected when SPEM are used especially because contrast sensitivity is reduced during SPEM (Schütz, Delipetkose, Braun, Kerzel, & Gegenfurtner, 2007). Therefore, peripheral motion change detection will be examined by contrasting a fixation condition with a SPEM condition. Methods: 13 participants (7 male, 6 female) were presented with a visual display consisting of 15 white and 1 red square. Participants were instructed to follow the red square with their eyes and press a button as soon as a white square begins to move. White square movements occurred either when the red square was still (fixation condition) or moving in a circular manner with 6 °/s (pursuit condition). The to-be-detected white square movements varied in eccentricity (4 °, 8 °, 16 °) and speed (1 °/s, 2 °/s, 4 °/s) while movement time of white squares was constant at 500 ms. 180 events should be detected in total. A Vicon-integrated eye-tracking system and a button press (1000 Hz) was used to control for eye-movements and measure detection rates and response times. Response times (ms) and missed detections (%) were measured as dependent variables and analysed with a 2 (manipulation) x 3 (eccentricity) x 3 (speed) ANOVA with repeated measures on all factors. Results: Significant response time effects were found for manipulation, F(1,12) = 224.31, p < .01, ηp2 = .95, eccentricity, F(2,24) = 56.43; p < .01, ηp2 = .83, and the interaction between the two factors, F(2,24) = 64.43; p < .01, ηp2 = .84. Response times increased as a function of eccentricity for SPEM only and were overall higher than in the fixation condition. Results further showed missed events effects for manipulation, F(1,12) = 37.14; p < .01, ηp2 = .76, eccentricity, F(2,24) = 44.90; p < .01, ηp2 = .79, the interaction between the two factors, F(2,24) = 39.52; p < .01, ηp2 = .77 and the three-way interaction manipulation x eccentricity x speed, F(2,24) = 3.01; p = .03, ηp2 = .20. While less than 2% of events were missed on average in the fixation condition as well as at 4° and 8° eccentricity in the SPEM condition, missed events increased for SPEM at 16 ° eccentricity with significantly more missed events in the 4 °/s speed condition (1 °/s: M = 34.69, SD = 20.52; 2 °/s: M = 33.34, SD = 19.40; 4 °/s: M = 39.67, SD = 19.40). Discussion: It could be shown that using SPEM impairs the ability to detect peripheral motion changes at the far periphery and that fixations not only help to detect these motion changes but also to respond faster. Due to high temporal constraints especially in team sports like soccer or basketball, fast reaction are necessary for successful anticipation and decision making. Thus, it is advised to anchor gaze at a specific location if peripheral changes (e.g. movements of other players) that require a motor response have to be detected. In contrast, SPEM should only be used if a single object, like the ball in cricket or baseball, is necessary for a successful motor response. References: Schütz, A. C., Braun, D. I., & Gegenfurtner, K. R. (2011). Eye movements and perception: A selective review. Journal of Vision, 11, 1-30. Schütz, A. C., Delipetkose, E., Braun, D. I., Kerzel, D., & Gegenfurtner, K. R. (2007). Temporal contrast sensitivity during smooth pursuit eye movements. Journal of Vision, 7, 1-15.

A model of factors determining levels of public support for health care policy in the United States

Public preferences for policy are formed in a little-understood process that is not adequately described by traditional economic theory of choice. In this paper I suggest that U.S. aggregate support for health reform can be modeled as tradeoffs among a small number of behavioral values and the stage of policy development. The theory underlying the model is based on Samuelson, et al.'s (1986) work and Wilke's (1991) elaboration of it as the Greed/Efficiency/Fairness (GEF) hypothesis of motivation in the management of resource dilemmas, and behavioral economics informed by Kahneman and Thaler's prospect theory. ^ The model developed in this paper employs ordered probit econometric techniques applied to data derived from U.S. polls taken from 1990 to mid-2003 that measured support for health reform proposals. Outcome data are four-tiered Likert counts; independent variables are dummies representing the presence or absence of operationalizations of each behavioral variable, along with an integer representing policy process stage. Marginal effects of each independent variable predict how support levels change on triggering that variable. Model estimation results indicate a vanishingly small likelihood that all coefficients are zero and all variables have signs expected from model theory. ^ Three hypotheses were tested: support will drain from health reform policy as it becomes increasingly well-articulated and approaches enactment; reforms appealing to fairness through universal health coverage will enjoy a higher degree of support than those targeted more narrowly; health reforms calling for government operation of the health finance system will achieve lower support than those that do not. Model results support the first and last hypotheses. Contrary to expectations, universal health care proposals did not provide incremental support beyond those targeted to “deserving” populations—children, elderly, working families. In addition, loss of autonomy (e.g. restrictions on choice of care giver) is found to be the “third rail” of health reform with significantly-reduced support. When applied to a hypothetical health reform in which an employer-mandated Medical Savings Account policy is the centerpiece, the model predicts support that may be insufficient to enactment. These results indicate that the method developed in the paper may prove valuable to health policy designers. ^

Evaluation of the causal pathways through which subjective norms influence mammography intention and stage of change in a national sample of women veterans

Few studies have investigated causal pathways linking psychosocial factors to each other and to screening mammography. Conflicting hypotheses exist in the theoretic literature regarding the role and importance of subjective norms, a person's perceived social pressure to perform the behavior and his/her motivation to comply. The Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) hypothesizes that subjective norms directly affect intention; while the Transtheoretical Model (TTM) hypothesizes that attitudes mediate the influence of subjective norms on stage of change. No one has examined which hypothesis best predicts the effect of subjective norms on mammography intention and stage of change. Two statistical methods are available for testing mediation, sequential regression analysis (SRA) and latent variable structural equation modeling (LVSEM); however, software to apply LVSEM to dichotomous variables like intention has only recently become available. No one has compared the methods to determine whether or not they yield similar results for dichotomous variables. ^ Study objectives were to: (1) determine whether the effect of subjective norms on mammography intention and stage of change are mediated by pros and cons; and (2) compare mediation results from the SRA and LVSEM approaches when the outcome is dichotomous. We conducted a secondary analysis of data from a national sample of women veterans enrolled in Project H.O.M.E. (H&barbelow;ealthy O&barbelow;utlook on the M&barbelow;ammography E&barbelow;xperience), a behavioral intervention trial. ^ Results showed that the TTM model described the causal pathways better than the TRA one; however, we found support for only one of the TTM causal mechanisms. Cons was the sole mediator. The mediated effect of subjective norms on intention and stage of change by cons was very small. These findings suggest that interventionists focus their efforts on reducing negative attitudes toward mammography when resources are limited. ^ Both the SRA and LVSEM methods provided evidence for complete mediation, and the direction, magnitude, and standard errors of the parameter estimates were very similar. Because SRA parameter estimates were not biased toward the null, we can probably assume negligible measurement error in the independent and mediator variables. Simulation studies are needed to further our understanding of how these two methods perform under different data conditions. ^

Clinical factors associated with growth and mortality of pediatric patients on HAART at Mulago PIDC, Uganda, 2003--2006

The global social and economic burden of HIV/AIDS is great, with over forty million people reported to be living with HIV/AIDS at the end of 2005; two million of these are children from birth to 15 years of age. Antiretroviral therapy has been shown to improve growth and survival of HIV-infected individuals. The purpose of this study is to describe a cohort of HIV-infected pediatric patients and assess the association between clinical factors, with growth and mortality outcomes. ^ This was a historical cohort study. Medical records of infants and children receiving HIV care at Mulago Pediatric Infectious Disease Clinic (PIDC) in Uganda between July 2003 and March 2006 were analyzed. Height and weight measurements were age and sex standardized to Centers for Disease Control and prevention (CDC) 2000 reference. Descriptive and logistic regression analyses were performed to identify covariates associated with risk of stunting or being underweight, and mortality. Longitudinal regression analysis with a mixed model using autoregressive covariance structure was used to compare change in height and weight before and after initiation of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). ^ The study population was comprised of 1059 patients 0-20 years of age, the majority of whom were aged thirteen years and below (74.6%). Mean height-for-age before initiation of HAART was in the 10th percentile, mean weight-for-age was in the 8th percentile, and the mean weight-for-height was in the 23rd percentile. Initiation of HAART resulted in improvement in both the mean standardized weight-for-age Z score and weight-for-age percentiles (p <0.001). Baseline age, and weight-for-age Z score were associated with stunting (p <0.001). A negative weight-for-age Z score was associated with stunting (OR 4.60, CI 3.04-5.49). Risk of death decreased from 84% in the >2-8 years age category to 21% in the >13 years age category respectively, compared to the 0-2 years of age (p <0.05). ^ This pediatric population gained weight significantly more rapidly than height after starting HAART. A low weight-for-age Z score was associated with poor survival in children. These findings suggest that age, weight, and height measurements be monitored closely at Mulago PIDC. ^