The 30-year TAMSAT African rainfall climatology and time-series (TARCAT) dataset

African societies are dependent on rainfall for agricultural and other water-dependent activities, yet rainfall is extremely variable in both space and time and reoccurring water shocks, such as drought, can have considerable social and economic impacts. To help improve our knowledge of the rainfall climate, we have constructed a 30-year (1983–2012), temporally consistent rainfall dataset for Africa known as TARCAT (TAMSAT African Rainfall Climatology And Time-series) using archived Meteosat thermal infra-red (TIR) imagery, calibrated against rain gauge records collated from numerous African agencies. TARCAT has been produced at 10-day (dekad) scale at a spatial resolution of 0.0375°. An intercomparison of TARCAT from 1983 to 2010 with six long-term precipitation datasets indicates that TARCAT replicates the spatial and seasonal rainfall patterns and interannual variability well, with correlation coefficients of 0.85 and 0.70 with the Climate Research Unit (CRU) and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) gridded-gauge analyses respectively in the interannual variability of the Africa-wide mean monthly rainfall. The design of the algorithm for drought monitoring leads to TARCAT underestimating the Africa-wide mean annual rainfall on average by −0.37 mm day−1 (21%) compared to other datasets. As the TARCAT rainfall estimates are historically calibrated across large climatically homogeneous regions, the data can provide users with robust estimates of climate related risk, even in regions where gauge records are inconsistent in time.

A novel ensemble method for retrieving properties of warm cloud in 3-D using ground-based scanning radar and zenith radiances

We present a novel method for retrieving high-resolution, three-dimensional (3-D) nonprecipitating cloud fields in both overcast and broken-cloud situations. The method uses scanning cloud radar and multiwavelength zenith radiances to obtain gridded 3-D liquid water content (LWC) and effective radius (re) and 2-D column mean droplet number concentration (Nd). By using an adaption of the ensemble Kalman filter, radiances are used to constrain the optical properties of the clouds using a forward model that employs full 3-D radiative transfer while also providing full error statistics given the uncertainty in the observations. To evaluate the new method, we first perform retrievals using synthetic measurements from a challenging cumulus cloud field produced by a large-eddy simulation snapshot. Uncertainty due to measurement error in overhead clouds is estimated at 20% in LWC and 6% in re, but the true error can be greater due to uncertainties in the assumed droplet size distribution and radiative transfer. Over the entire domain, LWC and re are retrieved with average error 0.05–0.08 g m-3 and ~2 μm, respectively, depending on the number of radiance channels used. The method is then evaluated using real data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program Mobile Facility at the Azores. Two case studies are considered, one stratocumulus and one cumulus. Where available, the liquid water path retrieved directly above the observation site was found to be in good agreement with independent values obtained from microwave radiometer measurements, with an error of 20 g m-2.

Investigation of discrepancies in satellite rainfall estimates over Ethiopia

Tropical Applications of Meteorology Using Satellite and Ground-Based Observations (TAMSAT) rainfall estimates are used extensively across Africa for operational rainfall monitoring and food security applications; thus, regional evaluations of TAMSAT are essential to ensure its reliability. This study assesses the performance of TAMSAT rainfall estimates, along with the African Rainfall Climatology (ARC), version 2; the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 product; and the Climate Prediction Center morphing technique (CMORPH), against a dense rain gauge network over a mountainous region of Ethiopia. Overall, TAMSAT exhibits good skill in detecting rainy events but underestimates rainfall amount, while ARC underestimates both rainfall amount and rainy event frequency. Meanwhile, TRMM consistently performs best in detecting rainy events and capturing the mean rainfall and seasonal variability, while CMORPH tends to overdetect rainy events. Moreover, the mean difference in daily rainfall between the products and rain gauges shows increasing underestimation with increasing elevation. However, the distribution in satellite–gauge differences demon- strates that although 75% of retrievals underestimate rainfall, up to 25% overestimate rainfall over all eleva- tions. Case studies using high-resolution simulations suggest underestimation in the satellite algorithms is likely due to shallow convection with warm cloud-top temperatures in addition to beam-filling effects in microwave- based retrievals from localized convective cells. The overestimation by IR-based algorithms is attributed to nonraining cirrus with cold cloud-top temperatures. These results stress the importance of understanding re- gional precipitation systems causing uncertainties in satellite rainfall estimates with a view toward using this knowledge to improve rainfall algorithms.

Phase calibration of the EISCAT Svalbard Radar interferometer using optical satellite signatures

The link between natural ion-line enhancements in radar spectra and auroral activity has been the subject of recent studies but conclusions have been limited by the spatial and temporal resolution previously available. The next challenge is to use shorter sub-second integration times in combination with interferometric programmes to resolve spatial structure within the main radar beam, and so relate enhanced filaments to individual auroral rays. This paper presents initial studies of a technique, using optical and spectral satellite signatures, to calibrate the received phase of a signal with the position of the scattering source along the interferometric baseline of the EISCAT Svalbard Radar. It is shown that a consistent relationship can be found only if the satellite passage through the phase fringes is adjusted from the passage predicted by optical tracking. This required adjustment is interpreted as being due to the vector between the theoretical focusing points of the two antennae, i.e. the true radar baseline, differing from the baseline obtained by survey between the antenna foot points. A method to obtain a measurement of the true interferometric baseline using multiple satellite passes is outlined.

Fractal geometry of aggregate snowflakes revealed by triple wavelength radar measurements

Radar reflectivity measurements from three different wavelengths are used to retrieve information about the shape of aggregate snowflakes in deep stratiform ice clouds. Dual-wavelength ratios are calculated for different shape models and compared to observations at 3, 35 and 94 GHz. It is demonstrated that many scattering models, including spherical and spheroidal models, do not adequately describe the aggregate snowflakes that are observed. The observations are consistent with fractal aggregate geometries generated by a physically-based aggregation model. It is demonstrated that the fractal dimension of large aggregates can be inferred directly from the radar data. Fractal dimensions close to 2 are retrieved, consistent with previous theoretical models and in-situ observations.

Extension of the TAMSAT satellite-based rainfall monitoring over Africa and from 1983 to present

Tropical Applications of Meteorology Using Satellite Data and Ground-Based Observations (TAMSAT) rainfall monitoring products have been extended to provide spatially contiguous rainfall estimates across Africa. This has been achieved through a new, climatology-based calibration, which varies in both space and time. As a result, cumulative estimates of rainfall are now issued at the end of each 10-day period (dekad) at 4-km spatial resolution with pan-African coverage. The utility of the products for decision making is improved by the routine provision of validation reports, for which the 10-day (dekadal) TAMSAT rainfall estimates are compared with independent gauge observations. This paper describes the methodology by which the TAMSAT method has been applied to generate the pan-African rainfall monitoring products. It is demonstrated through comparison with gauge measurements that the method provides skillful estimates, although with a systematic dry bias. This study illustrates TAMSAT’s value as a complementary method of estimating rainfall through examples of successful operational application.

Nightside studies of coherent HF Radar spectral width behaviour

A previous case study found a relationship between high spectral width measured by the CUTLASS Finland HF radar and elevated electron temperatures observed by the EISCAT and ESR incoherent scatter radars in the postmidnight sector of magnetic local time. This paper expands that work by briefly re-examining that interval and looking in depth at two further case studies. In all three cases a region of high HF spectral width (>200 ms−1) exists poleward of a region of low HF spectral width (<200 ms^{−1}). Each case, however, occurs under quite different geomagnetic conditions. The original case study occurred during an interval with no observed electrojet activity, the second study during a transition from quiet to active conditions with a clear band of ion frictional heating indicating the location of the flow reversal boundary, and the third during an isolated substorm. These case studies indicate that the relationship between elevated electron temperature and high HF radar spectral width appears on closed field lines after 03:00 magnetic local time (MLT) on the nightside. It is not clear whether the same relationship would hold on open field lines, since our analysis of this relationship is restricted in latitude. We find two important properties of high spectral width data on the nightside. Firstly the high spectral width values occur on both open and closed field lines, and secondly that the power spectra which exhibit high widths are both single-peak and multiple-peak. In general the regions of high spectral width (>200 ms−1) have more multiple-peak spectra than the regions of low spectral widths whilst still maintaining a majority of single-peak spectra. We also find that the region of ion frictional heating is collocated with many multiplepeak HF spectra. Several mechanisms for the generation of high spectral width have been proposed which would produce multiple-peak spectra, these are discussed in relation to the data presented here. Since the regions of high spectral width are observed both on closed and open field lines the use of the boundary between low and high spectral width as an ionospheric proxy for the open/closed field line boundary is not a simple matter, if indeed it is possible at all.

Simultaneous optical and radar signatures of poleward-moving auroral forms

Dayside poleward moving auroral forms (PMAFs) were detected between 06:30 and 07:00 UT on December 16, 1998, by the meridian scanning photometer and the all-sky camera at Ny Alesund, Svalbard. Simultaneous SuperDARN HF radar measurements permitted the study of the associated ionospheric velocity pattern. A good general agreement is observed between the location and movement of velocity enhancements (flow channels) and the PMAFs. Clear signatures of equatorward flow were detected in the vicinity of PMAFs. This flow is believed to be the signature of a return flow outside the reconnected Aux tube, as predicted by the Southwood model. The simulated signatures of this model reproduce globally the measured signatures, and differences with the experimental data can be explained by the simplifications of the model. Proposed schemes of the flow modification due to the presence of several flow channels and the modification of cusp and region 1 field-aligned currents at the time of sporadic reconnection events are shown to fit well with the observations.

Plasma structure within poleward-moving cusp/cleft auroral transients: EISCAT Svalbard radar observations and an explanation in terms of large local time extent of events

We report high-resolution observations of the southward-IMF cusp/cleft ionosphere made on December 16th 1998 by the EISCAT (European incoherent scatter) Svalbard radar (ESR), and compare them with observations of dayside auroral luminosity, as seen at a wavelength of 630 nm by a meridian scanning photometer at Ny Alesund, and of plasma flows, as seen by the CUTLASS (co-operative UK twin location auroral sounding system) Finland HF radar. The optical data reveal a series of poleward-moving transient red-line (630 nm) enhancements, events that have been associated with bursts in the rate of magnetopause reconnection generating new open flux. The combined observations at this time have strong similarities to predictions of the effects of soft electron precipitation modulated by pulsed reconnection, as made by Davis and Lockwood (1996); however, the effects of rapid zonal flow in the ionosphere, caused by the magnetic curvature force on the newly opened field lines, are found to be a significant additional factor. In particular, it is shown how enhanced plasma loss rates induced by the rapid convection can explain two outstanding anomalies of the 630 nm transients, namely how minima in luminosity form between the poleward-moving events and how events can re-brighten as they move poleward. The observations show how cusp/cleft aurora and transient poleward-moving auroral forms appear in the ESR data and the conditions which cause enhanced 630 nm emission in the transients: they are an important first step in enabling the ESR to identify these features away from the winter solstice when supporting auroral observations are not available.

Coherent EISCAT Svalbard Radar spectra from the dayside cusp/cleft and their implications for transient field-aligned currents

Naturally enhanced incoherent scatter spectra from the vicinity of the dayside cusp/cleft, interpreted as being due to plasma turbulence driven by short bursts of intense field-aligned current, are compared with high-resolution narrow-angle auroral images and meridian scanning photometer data. Enhanced spectra have been observed on many occasions in association with nightside aurora, but there has been only one report of such spectra seen in the cusp/cleft region. Narrow-angle images show considerable change in the aurora on timescales shorter than the 10-s radar integration period, which could explain spectra observed with both ion lines simultaneously enhanced. Enhanced radar spectra are generally seen inside or beside regions of 630-nm auroral emission, indicative of sharp F region conductivity gradients, but there appears also to be a correlation with dynamic, small-scale auroral forms of order 100 m and less in width.

Incoherent scatter radar observations related to magnetospheric dynamics

Over the past decade incoherent scatter radars have provided fundamental observations of velocities and plasma parameters in the high-latitude ionosphere which relate to the dynamical processes responsible for the excitation of flow in the coupled solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere system. These observations have played a central role in inspiring a change of paradigm from a picture of quasi-steady flows parameterised by the direction of the interplanetary magnetic field to a picture of inherently time-dependent flows driven by coupling processes at the magnetopause and in the tail. Flows and particle precipitation in the dayside ionosphere are reasonably well understood in principle in terms of the effects of time-dependent reconnection at the magnetopause, though coordinated high- and low-altitude observations are lacking. Related phenomena also appear to occur in the tail, forming the “equatorward-drifting arcs” which are present during quiet times, as well as during the growth and early expansion phases of substorms. At expansion onset, the substorm bulge forms well equatorward of the arc formation region, and may take ∼ 10 min or more to reach it in its poleward expansion. Nightside ionospheric flows are then considerably perturbed by the effects of strong precipitation-induced conductivity gradients.

The impact of uncertain precipitation data on insurance loss estimates using a flood catastrophe model

Catastrophe risk models used by the insurance industry are likely subject to significant uncertainty, but due to their proprietary nature and strict licensing conditions they are not available for experimentation. In addition, even if such experiments were conducted, these would not be repeatable by other researchers because commercial confidentiality issues prevent the details of proprietary catastrophe model structures from being described in public domain documents. However, such experimentation is urgently required to improve decision making in both insurance and reinsurance markets. In this paper we therefore construct our own catastrophe risk model for flooding in Dublin, Ireland, in order to assess the impact of typical precipitation data uncertainty on loss predictions. As we consider only a city region rather than a whole territory and have access to detailed data and computing resources typically unavailable to industry modellers, our model is significantly more detailed than most commercial products. The model consists of four components, a stochastic rainfall module, a hydrological and hydraulic flood hazard module, a vulnerability module, and a financial loss module. Using these we undertake a series of simulations to test the impact of driving the stochastic event generator with four different rainfall data sets: ground gauge data, gauge-corrected rainfall radar, meteorological reanalysis data (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis-Interim; ERA-Interim) and a satellite rainfall product (The Climate Prediction Center morphing method; CMORPH). Catastrophe models are unusual because they use the upper three components of the modelling chain to generate a large synthetic database of unobserved and severe loss-driving events for which estimated losses are calculated. We find the loss estimates to be more sensitive to uncertainties propagated from the driving precipitation data sets than to other uncertainties in the hazard and vulnerability modules, suggesting that the range of uncertainty within catastrophe model structures may be greater than commonly believed.

Sondrestrom and EISCAT radar observations of poleward-moving auroral forms

During many magnetospheric substorms, the auroral oval near midnight is observed to expand poleward in association with strong negative perturbations measured by local ground magnetometers. We show Sondrestrom and EISCAT incoherent scatter radar measurements during three such events. In each of the events, enhanced ionization produced by the precipitation moved northward by several degrees of latitude within 10–20 min. The electric fields measured during the three events were significantly different. In one event the electric field was southward everywhere within the precipitation region. In the other two events a reversal in the meridional component of the field was observed. In one case the reversal occurred within the precipitation region, while in the other case the reversal was at the poleward boundary of the precipitation. The westward electrojet that produces the negative H-perturbation in the ground magnetic field has Hall and Pedersen components to varying degrees. In one case the Hall component was eastward and the Pedersen component was westward, but the net magnetic H-deflection on the ground was negative. Simultaneous EISCAT measurements made near the dawn meridian during one of the events show that the polar cap boundary moved northward at the same time as the aurora expanded northward at Sondrestrom. Most of the differences in the electrodynamic configuration in the three events can be accounted for in terms of the location at which the measurements were made relative to the center of the auroral bulge.

Analysis of incoherent scatter radar data from non-thermal F-region plasma

A procedure is presented for fitting incoherent scatter radar data from non-thermal F-region ionospheric plasma, using theoretical spectra previously predicted. It is found that values of the shape distortion factor D∗, associated with deviations of the ion velocity distribution from a Maxwellian distribution, and ion temperatures can be deduced (the results being independent of the path of iteration) if the angle between the line-of-sight and the geomagnetic field is larger than about 15–20°. The procedure can be used with one or both of two sets of assumptions. These concern the validity of the adopted model for the line-of-sight ion velocity distribution in the one case or for the full three-dimensional ion velocity distribution function in the other. The distribution function employed was developed to describe the line-of-sight velocity distribution for large aspect angles, but both experimental data and Monte Carlo simulations indicate that the form of the field-perpendicular distribution can also describe the distribution at more general aspect angles. The assumption of this form for the line-of-sight velocity distribution at a general aspect angle enables rigorous derivation of values of the one-dimensional, line-of-sight ion temperature. With some additional assumptions (principally that the field-parallel distribution is always Maxwellian and there is a simple relationship between the ion temperature anisotropy and the distortion of the field-perpendicular distribution from a Maxwellian), fits to data for large aspect angles enable determination of line-of-sight temperatures at all aspect angles and hence, of the average ion temperature and the ion temperature anisotropy. For small aspect angles, the analysis is restricted to the determination of the line-of-sight ion temperature because the theoretical spectrum is insensitive to non-thermal effects when the plasma is viewed along directions almost parallel to the magnetic field. This limitation is expected to apply to any realistic model of the ion velocity distribution function and its consequences are discussed. Fit strategies which allow for mixed ion composition are also considered. Examples of fits to data from various EISCAT observing programmes are presented.