Estimadores compuestos en estadística regional: aplicación para la tasa de variación de la ocupación en la industria

This work is part of a project studying the performance of model basedestimators in a small area context. We have chosen a simple statisticalapplication in which we estimate the growth rate of accupation for severalregions of Spain. We compare three estimators: the direct one based onstraightforward results from the survey (which is unbiassed), and a thirdone which is based in a statistical model and that minimizes the mean squareerror.

Nonlinear models and small sample performance of the generalized method of moments

In this paper I explore the issue of nonlinearity (both in the datageneration process and in the functional form that establishes therelationship between the parameters and the data) regarding the poorperformance of the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) in small samples.To this purpose I build a sequence of models starting with a simple linearmodel and enlarging it progressively until I approximate a standard (nonlinear)neoclassical growth model. I then use simulation techniques to find the smallsample distribution of the GMM estimators in each of the models.

The dot-com bubble, the Bush deficits and the US current account

Over the past decade the US has experienced widening current account deficits and a steady deterioration of its net foreign asset position. During the second half of the 1990s, this deterioration was fueled by foreign investment in a booming US stock market. During the first half of the 2000s, this deterioration has been fuelled by foreign purchases of rapidly increasing US government debt. A somewhat surprising aspect of the current debate is thatstock market movements and fiscal policy choices have been largely treated as unrelated events. Stock market movements are usually interpreted as reflecting exogenous changes in perceived or real productivity, while budget deficits are usually understood as a mainly political decision. We challenge this view here and develop two alternative interpretations. Both are based on the notion that a bubble (the dot-com bubble) has been driving the stock market, but differ in their assumptions about the interactions between this bubble and fiscal policy (the Bush deficits). The benevolent view holds that a change in investorsentiment led to the collapse of the dot-com bubble and the Bush deficits were a welfare-improving policy response to this event. The cynical view holds instead that the Bush deficits led to the collapse of the dot-com bubble as the new administration tried to appropriate rents from foreign investors. We discuss the implications of each of these views for the future evolution of the US economy and, in particular, its net foreign asset position.

A Problemática dos Recursos Hídricos em Santiago

reduzida precipitação é uma característica intrínseca do clima de Santiago que se traduz numa escassez crónica de água, agravada pelo aumento dos consumos resultantes do crescimento da população e da melhoria das suas condições de vida. As águas subterrâneas garantem o essencial do abastecimento estando sujeitas a elevadas taxas de exploração, com consequências na qualidade da água e difícil aumento dos caudais captados. Partindo deste quadro de escassez global de água e forte pressão sobre os recursos subterrâneos, levantam-se enormes desafios à gestão sustentável dos recursos hídricos. A prioridade de mitigar a deficiente oferta de água para uso doméstico quer em quantidade quer em qualidade impõe a implementação de uma nova cultura da água, cimentada num ordenamento do território racional que adeqúe o uso do solo aos condicionalismos do regime hídrico.

Respiration, metabolic balance, and attention in affective picture processing

The jointly voluntary and involuntary control of respiration, unique among essential physiological processes, the interconnection of breathing with and its influence on the autonomic nervous system, and disease states associated with the interface between psychology and respiration (e.g., anxiety disorders, hyperventilation syndrome, asthma) make the study of the relationship between respiration and emotion both theoretically and clinically of great relevance. However, the respiratory behavior during affective states is not yet completely understood. We studied breathing pattern responses to 13 picture series varying widely in their affective tone in 37 adults (18 men, 19 women, mean age 26). Time and volume parameters were recorded with the LifeShirt system (VivoMetrics Inc., Ventura, California, USA, see image). We also measured end-tidal pCO2 (EtCO2) with a Microcap Handheld Capnograph (Oridion Medical 1987 Ltd., Jerusalem, Israel) to determine if ventilation is in balance with metabolic demands and spontaneous eye-blinking to investigate the link between respiration and attention. At the end of each picture series, the participants reported their subjective feeling in the affective dimensions of pleasantness and arousal. Increasing self-rated arousal was associated with increasing minute ventilation but not with decreases in EtCO2, suggesting that ventilatory changes during picture viewing paralleled variations in metabolic activity. EtCO2 correlated with pleasantness, and eye-blink rate decreased with increasing unpleasantness in line with a negativity bias in attention. Like MV, inspiratory drive (i.e., mean inspiratory flow) increased with arousal. This relationship reflected increases in inspiratory volume rather than shortening of the time parameters. This study confirms that respiratory responses to affective stimuli are organized to a certain degree along the dimensions of pleasantness and arousal. It shows, for the first time, that during picture viewing, ventilatory increases with increasing arousal are in balance with metabolic activity and that inspiratory volume is modulated by arousal. MV emerges as the most reliable respiratory index of self-perceived arousal. Finally, end-tidal pCO2 is slightly lower during processing of negative as compared to positive picture contents, which is proposed to enhance sensory perception and reflect a negativity bias in attention.

Supply chain management as a competitive advantage in the Spanish grocery sector

Adversarial relationships have long dominated business relationships,but Supply Chain Management (SCM) entails a new perspective. SCM requiresa movement away from arms-length relationships toward partnership stylerelations. SCM involves integration, co-ordination and collaborationacross organisations and throughout the supply chain. It means that SCMrequires internal (intraorganisational) and external (interorganisational)integration. This paper analyses the relationship between internal andexternal integration processes, their effect on firms performance andtheir contribution to the achievement of a competitive advantage.Performance improvements are analysed through costs, stock out and leadtime reductions. And, the achievement of a better competitive positionis measured by comparing the firm s performance with its competitors performance. To analyse this, an empirical study has been conducted inthe Spanish grocery sector.

Comparative advantage and the cross-section of business cycles

Business cycles are both less volatile and more synchronized with the world cycle in rich countries than in poor ones. We develop two alternative explanations based on the idea that comparative advantage causes rich countries to specialize in industries that use new technologies operated by skilled workers, while poor countries specialize in industries that use traditional technologies operated by unskilled workers. Since new technologies are difficult to imitate, the industries of rich countries enjoy more market power and face more inelastic product demands than those of poor countries. Since skilled workers are less likely to exit employment as a result of changes in economic conditions, industries in rich countries face more inelastic labour supplies than those of poor countries. We show that either asymmetry in industry characteristics can generate cross-country differences in business cycles that resemble those we observe in the data.

Bubbles and capital flows

This paper presents a stylized model of international trade and asset price bubbles. Its central insight is that bubbles tend to appear and expand in countries where productivity is low relative to the rest of the world. These bubbles absorb local savings, eliminating inefficient investments and liberating resources that are in part used to invest in high productivity countries. Through this channel, bubbles act as a substitute for international capital flows, improving the international allocation of investment and reducing rate-of-return differentials across countries. This view of asset price bubbles could eventually provide a simple account of some real world phenomenae that have been difficult to model before, such as the recurrence and depth of financial crises or their puzzling tendency to propagate across countries.

Improving small area estimation by combining surveys: new perspectives in regional statistics

A national survey designed for estimating a specific population quantity is sometimes used for estimation of this quantity also for a small area, such as a province. Budget constraints do not allow a greater sample size for the small area, and so other means of improving estimation have to be devised. We investigate such methods and assess them by a Monte Carlo study. We explore how a complementary survey can be exploited in small area estimation. We use the context of the Spanish Labour Force Survey (EPA) and the Barometer in Spain for our study.

An empirical evaluation of small area estimators

This paper investigates the comparative performance of five small areaestimators. We use Monte Carlo simulation in the context of boththeoretical and empirical populations. In addition to the direct andindirect estimators, we consider the optimal composite estimator withpopulation weights, and two composite estimators with estimatedweights: one that assumes homogeneity of within area variance andsquare bias, and another one that uses area specific estimates ofvariance and square bias. It is found that among the feasibleestimators, the best choice is the one that uses area specificestimates of variance and square bias.

Death and resurrection of the human IRGM gene

Immunity-related GTPases (IRG) play an important role in defense against intracellular pathogens. One member of this gene family in humans, IRGM, has been recently implicated as a risk factor for Crohn's disease. We analyzed the detailed structure of this gene family among primates and showed that most of the IRG gene cluster was deleted early in primate evolution, after the divergence of the anthropoids from prosimians ( about 50 million years ago). Comparative sequence analysis of New World and Old World monkey species shows that the single-copy IRGM gene became pseudogenized as a result of an Alu retrotransposition event in the anthropoid common ancestor that disrupted the open reading frame (ORF). We find that the ORF was reestablished as a part of a polymorphic stop codon in the common ancestor of humans and great apes. Expression analysis suggests that this change occurred in conjunction with the insertion of an endogenous retrovirus, which altered the transcription initiation, splicing, and expression profile of IRGM. These data argue that the gene became pseudogenized and was then resurrected through a series of complex structural events and suggest remarkable functional plasticity where alleles experience diverse evolutionary pressures over time. Such dynamism in structure and evolution may be critical for a gene family locked in an arms race with an ever-changing repertoire of intracellular parasites.

A burst of segmental duplications in the genome of the African great ape ancestor

It is generally accepted that the extent of phenotypic change between human and great apes is dissonant with the rate of molecular change. Between these two groups, proteins are virtually identical, cytogenetically there are few rearrangements that distinguish ape-human chromosomes, and rates of single-base-pair change and retrotransposon activity have slowed particularly within hominid lineages when compared to rodents or monkeys. Studies of gene family evolution indicate that gene loss and gain are enriched within the primate lineage. Here, we perform a systematic analysis of duplication content of four primate genomes (macaque, orang-utan, chimpanzee and human) in an effort to understand the pattern and rates of genomic duplication during hominid evolution. We find that the ancestral branch leading to human and African great apes shows the most significant increase in duplication activity both in terms of base pairs and in terms of events. This duplication acceleration within the ancestral species is significant when compared to lineage-specific rate estimates even after accounting for copy-number polymorphism and homoplasy. We discover striking examples of recurrent and independent gene-containing duplications within the gorilla and chimpanzee that are absent in the human lineage. Our results suggest that the evolutionary properties of copy-number mutation differ significantly from other forms of genetic mutation and, in contrast to the hominid slowdown of single-base-pair mutations, there has been a genomic burst of duplication activity at this period during human evolution.

Gènere no normatiu i formació en el grau en treball social

En aquest informe es detallen els elements fonamentals d’una recerca duta a terme en tres universitats catalanes respecte dels continguts formatius en matèria de gènere del Grau en Treball Social. Recerca que parteix de la hipòtesi de que realitats de gènere no normatives, que requereixen ser abordades des de l’exercici professional del Treball Social, no tenen presència en els currículums formatius. Els continguts temàtics de les guies d’aprenentatge de les assignatures que conformen els plans d’estudi, i una enquesta als estudiants al final del seu procés formatiu vers als seus coneixements en matèria de gènere, són els dos eixos d’anàlisi que han permès arribar a unes primeres conclusions de caràcter preliminar, les quals conformen un escenari global caracteritzat per una presència residual d’aquestes realitats de gènere no normatives, i que planteja la necessitat de dur a terme una reflexió i revisió acadèmica al respecte.

Sovereign debt markets in turbulent times: Creditor discrimination and crowding-out effects

In 2007, countries in the Euro periphery were enjoying stable growth, low deficits, and lowspreads. Then the financial crisis erupted and pushed them into deep recessions, raising theirdeficits and debt levels. By 2010, they were facing severe debt problems. Spreads increased and,surprisingly, so did the share of the debt held by domestic creditors. Credit was reallocatedfrom the private to the public sectors, reducing investment and deepening the recessions evenfurther. To account for these facts, we propose a simple model of sovereign risk in which debtcan be traded in secondary markets. The model has two key ingredients: creditor discriminationand crowding-out effects. Creditor discrimination arises because, in turbulent times, sovereigndebt offers a higher expected return to domestic creditors than to foreign ones. This providesincentives for domestic purchases of debt. Crowding-out effects arise because private borrowingis limited by financial frictions. This implies that domestic debt purchases displace productiveinvestment. The model shows that these purchases reduce growth and welfare, and may lead toself-fulfilling crises. It also shows how crowding-out effects can be transmitted to other countriesin the Eurozone, and how they may be addressed by policies at the European level.

Fatal metformin overdose: case report and postmortem biochemistry contribution.

Metformin is an oral antihyperglycemic agent used in the management of type 2 diabetes mellitus. Lactic acidosis from metformin overdose is a rare complication of metformin therapy and occurs infrequently with therapeutic use. Fatal cases, both accidental and intentional, are extremely rare in clinical practice. Metformin is eliminated by the kidneys, and impaired renal function can result in an increased plasma concentration of the drug. In this report, we describe an autopsy case involving a 70-year-old woman suffering from diabetes mellitus and impaired renal function who received metformin treatment. Metformin concentrations in the peripheral blood collected during hospitalization and femoral blood collected during autopsy were 42 and 47.3 µg/ml, respectively. Lactic acidosis (29.10 mmol/l) was objectified during hospitalization. Furthermore, postmortem biochemistry allowed ketoacidosis to be diagnosed (blood β-hydroxybutyrate, 10,500 µmol/l). Death was attributed to lactic acidosis due to metformin intoxication. Increased plasma concentrations of the drug were attributed to severely impaired renal function. The case emphasizes the usefulness of performing exhaustive toxicology and postmortem biochemistry towards the more complete understanding of the pathophysiological mechanisms that may be involved in the death process.