Forecasts of relative performance in tournaments: Evidence from the field

This paper uses a field experiment to investigate the quality of individuals’ forecasts of relative performance in tournaments. We ask players in luck-based (poker) and skill-based (chess) tournaments to make point forecasts of rank. The main finding of the paper is that players’ forecasts in both types of tournaments are biased towards overestimation of relative performance. However, the size of the biases found is not as large as the ones often reported in the psychology literature. We also find support for the “unskilled and unaware hypothesis” in chess: high skilled chess players make better forecasts than low skilled chess players. Finally, we find that chess players’ forecasts of relative performance are not efficient.

Designing and implementing a performance measurement system in Auto Ribeiro, Lda.

In any business it is very important to measure the performance and it helps to select key information to make better decisions on time. This research focuses on the design and implementation of a performance measurement system in a Portuguese medium size firm operating in the specialized health care transformation vehicles industry. From the evidence that outputs from Auto Ribeiro’s current information system is misaligned with the company’s objectives and strategy, this research tries to solve this business problem through the development of a Balanced Scorecard analysis, although there are some issues, which deserve further development.

Reinvigorating and redesigning early intervention in psychosis services for young people in Auckland

RESUMO: Auckland tem sido pioneira na implementação de modelos de Intervenção Precoce em Psicose. No entanto, esta organização do serviço não mudou nos últimos 19 anos. Segundo os dados obtidos da utilização do serviço, no período de 1996 -2012 foram atendidos 997 doentes, que tinham um número médio de 89 contactos (IQR: 36-184), com uma duração média de 62 horas de contactos (IQR: 24-136). Estes doentes passaram um número médio de 338 dias (IQR: 93-757) em contacto com o programa. 517 doentes (52%) não necessitaram de internamento no hospital, e os que foram internados, ficaram uma mediana de 124 dias no hospital (IQR: 40-380). Os doentes asiáticos tiveram um aumento de 50% de probabilidade de serem internados no hospital. Este relatório inclui 15 recomendações para orientar as reformas para o serviço e, nomeadamente, delinear a importância de uma visão organizacional e dos seus componentes-chave. As recomendações incluem o reforço da gestão e da liderança numa estrutura de equipe mais integrada, com recursos dedicados a melhorar a consciencialização da comunidade, a educação e deteção precoce, bem como a capacidade de receber referenciações diretas. Os Indicadores Chave de Desempenho devem ser estabelecidos, mas os Exames de Estado Mental em risco, devem ser removidos. Auckland deve manter a faixa etária alvo atual. A duração do serviço deve ser aumentada para um mínimo de três anos, com a opção de aumentá-la para cinco anos. A proporção de gestor de cuidados para os doentes deve ser preconizada em 1:15, enquanto o pessoal de apoio não-clínico deve ser aumentado. Os psiquiatras devem ter uma carga de trabalho de cerca de 80 doentes por equivalente de tempo completo. Um serviço local de prestação de cuidados deve ser desenvolvido com, nomeadamente, intervenções culturais para responder às necessidades da população multicultural de Auckland. A capacidade de investigação deve ser incorporada no Serviço de Intervenção Precoce em Psicoses. Qualquer alteração deverá envolver contacto com todas as partes interessadas, e a Administração Regional de Saúde deve comprometer-se em tempo, recursos humanos e políticos para apoiar e facilitar a mudança do sistema, investindo de forma significativa para melhor servir a comunidade Auckland.----------------------------------- ABSTRACT: Auckland has been pioneering in the adoption of Early Intervention in Psychosis models but the design of the service has not changed in 19 years. In service utilisation data from 997 patients seen from 1996 -2012, patients had a median number of 89 contacts (IQR: 36-184), with a median duration of 62 hours of contact (IQR: 24-136). Patients spent a median number of 338 days (IQR: 93-757) in contact with the program. 517 patients (52%) did not require admission to hospital, and those who did spent a median of 124 days in hospital (IQR: 40-380). Asian patients had a 50% increased chance of being admitted to hospital. This report includes 15 recommendations to guide reforms to the service, including outlining the importance of vision and key components. It recommends strengthened managerial leadership and a more integrated team structure with dedicated resources for improved community awareness, education and early detection as well as the capacity to take direct referrals. Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) should be established but At Risk Mental States should be excluded. Auckland should maintain the current target age range. The duration of service should be increased to a minimum of three years, with the option to extend this to five years. The ratio of care co-ordinator to patients should be capped at 1:15 whilst non-clinical supporting staff should be increased. Psychiatrists should have a caseload of about 80 per FTE. A local Service Delivery framework should be developed, as should cultural interventions to meet the needs of the multicultural population of Auckland. Research capacity should be incorporated into the fabric of Early Intervention in Psychosis Services. Any changes should involve consultation with all stakeholders, and the DHB should commit to investing time, human and political resources to support and facilitate meaningful system change to best serve the Auckland community.

Biomass accumulation, photochemical efficiency of photosystem II, nutrient contents and nitrate reductase activity in young rosewood plants (Aniba rosaeodora Ducke) submitted to different NO3-:NH4+ ratios

The rosewood (Aniba rosaeodora Ducke) is a native tree species of Amazon rainforest growing naturally in acidic forest soils with reduced redox potential. However, this species can also been found growing in forest gaps containing oxide soils. Variations in the forms of mineral nitrogen (NO3- or NH4+) may be predicted in these different edaphic conditions. Considering that possibility, an experiment was carried out to analyze the effects of different NO3-:NH4+ ratios on the growth performance, mineral composition, chloroplastid pigment contents, photochemical efficiency photosystem II (PSII), and nitrate redutase activity (RN, E.C.1.6.6.1) on A. rosaeodora seedlings. Nine-month-old seedlings were grown in pots with a washed sand capacity of 7.5 kg and submitted to different NO3-:NH4+ ratios (T1 = 0:100%, T2 = 25:75%, T3 = 50:50%, T4 = 75:25%, and T5 = 100:0%). The lowest relative growth rate was observed when the NO3-:NH4+ ratio was equal to 0:100%. In general, high concentrations of NO3- rather than NH4+ favored a greater nutrient accumulation in different parts of the plant. For the chloroplastid pigment, the highest Chl a, Chl b, Chl tot, Chl a/b and Chl tot/Cx+c contents were found in the treatment with 75:25% of NO3-:NH4+, and for Chl b and Cx+c it was observed no difference. In addition, there was a higher photochemical efficiency of PSII (Fv/Fm) when high NO3- concentrations were used. A linear and positive response for the nitrate reductase activity was recorded when the nitrate content increased on the culture substrate. Our results suggest that A. rosaeodora seedlings have a better growth performance when the NO3- concentrations in the culture substrate were higher than the NH4+ concentrations.

Export-market dynamics and the probability of firm closure: Evidence for the UK

This study presents the first empirical analysis of the determinants of firm closure in the UK with an emphasis on the role of export-market dynamics, using panel data for a nationally representative group of firms operating in all-market based sectors during 1997-2003. Our findings show that the probability of closure is (cet. par.) significantly lower for exporters, particularly those experiencing export-market entry and exit. Having controlled for other attributes associated with productivity (such as size and export status), the following factors are found to increase the firm’s survival prospects: higher capital intensity and TFP, foreign ownership, young age, displacement effects (through relatively high rates of entry of firms in each industry), and belonging to certain industries. Interestingly, increased import penetration (a proxy for lower trade costs) leads to a lower hazard rate for exporting entrants and continuous exporters, whilst inducing a higher hazard rate for domestic producers or those that quit exporting.

Firms in Scottish High Technology Clusters: software, life sciences, microelectronics, optoelectronics and digital media – preliminary evidence and analysis on firm size, growth and optimality

This paper reports on: (a) new primary source evidence on; and (b) statistical and econometric analysis of high technology clusters in Scotland. It focuses on the following sectors: software, life sciences, microelectronics, optoelectronics, and digital media. Evidence on a postal and e-mailed questionnaire is presented and discussed under the headings of: performance, resources, collaboration & cooperation, embeddedness, and innovation. The sampled firms are characterised as being small (viz. micro-firms and SMEs), knowledge intensive (largely graduate staff), research intensive (mean spend on R&D GBP 842k), and internationalised (mainly selling to markets beyond Europe). Preliminary statistical evidence is presented on Gibrat’s Law (independence of growth and size) and the Schumpeterian Hypothesis (scale economies in R&D). Estimates suggest a short-run equilibrium size of just 100 employees, but a long-run equilibrium size of 1000 employees. Further, to achieve the Schumpeterian effect (of marked scale economies in R&D), estimates suggest that firms have to grow to very much larger sizes of beyond 3,000 employees. We argue that the principal way of achieving the latter scale may need to be by takeovers and mergers, rather than by internally driven growth.

A randomized controlled clinical trial evaluating the performance and safety of platelets treated with MIRASOL pathogen reduction technology.

BACKGROUND: Pathogen reduction of platelets (PRT-PLTs) using riboflavin and ultraviolet light treatment has undergone Phase 1 and 2 studies examining efficacy and safety. This randomized controlled clinical trial (RCT) assessed the efficacy and safety of PRT-PLTs using the 1-hour corrected count increment (CCI(1hour) ) as the primary outcome. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: A noninferiority RCT was performed where patients with chemotherapy-induced thrombocytopenia (six centers) were randomly allocated to receive PRT-PLTs (Mirasol PRT, CaridianBCT Biotechnologies) or reference platelet (PLT) products. The treatment period was 28 days followed by a 28-day follow-up (safety) period. The primary outcome was the CCI(1hour) determined using up to the first eight on-protocol PLT transfusions given during the treatment period. RESULTS: A total of 118 patients were randomly assigned (60 to PRT-PLTs; 58 to reference). Four patients per group did not require PLT transfusions leaving 110 patients in the analysis (56 PRT-PLTs; 54 reference). A total of 541 on-protocol PLT transfusions were given (303 PRT-PLTs; 238 reference). The least square mean CCI was 11,725 (standard error [SE], 1.140) for PRT-PLTs and 16,939 (SE, 1.149) for the reference group (difference, -5214; 95% confidence interval, -7542 to -2887; p<0.0001 for a test of the null hypothesis of no difference between the two groups). CONCLUSION: The study failed to show noninferiority of PRT-PLTs based on predefined CCI criteria. PLT and red blood cell utilization in the two groups was not significantly different suggesting that the slightly lower CCIs (PRT-PLTs) did not increase blood product utilization. Safety data showed similar findings in the two groups. Further studies are required to determine if the lower CCI observed with PRT-PLTs translates into an increased risk of bleeding.

3D gait assessment in young and elderly subjects using foot-worn inertial sensors.

This study describes the validation of a new wearable system for assessment of 3D spatial parameters of gait. The new method is based on the detection of temporal parameters, coupled to optimized fusion and de-drifted integration of inertial signals. Composed of two wirelesses inertial modules attached on feet, the system provides stride length, stride velocity, foot clearance, and turning angle parameters at each gait cycle, based on the computation of 3D foot kinematics. Accuracy and precision of the proposed system were compared to an optical motion capture system as reference. Its repeatability across measurements (test-retest reliability) was also evaluated. Measurements were performed in 10 young (mean age 26.1±2.8 years) and 10 elderly volunteers (mean age 71.6±4.6 years) who were asked to perform U-shaped and 8-shaped walking trials, and then a 6-min walking test (6MWT). A total of 974 gait cycles were used to compare gait parameters with the reference system. Mean accuracy±precision was 1.5±6.8cm for stride length, 1.4±5.6cm/s for stride velocity, 1.9±2.0cm for foot clearance, and 1.6±6.1° for turning angle. Difference in gait performance was observed between young and elderly volunteers during the 6MWT particularly in foot clearance. The proposed method allows to analyze various aspects of gait, including turns, gait initiation and termination, or inter-cycle variability. The system is lightweight, easy to wear and use, and suitable for clinical application requiring objective evaluation of gait outside of the lab environment.

Influence of initial foot dorsal flexion on vertical jump and running performance.

Several studies (on an inclined platform or with special shoes) have reported improved jump performance when the ankle was in a dorsiflexion (DF) position. The present study aims to test whether shoes inducing moderate DF modify vertical jump performance and energy cost. Twenty-one young, healthy female subjects (30 +/- 6 yr, 58 +/- 6 kg, O2max 45 +/- 3 mLxkg-1xmin-1, mean +/- SD) participated in the study. Jump performance was tested with subjects either wearing 4 degrees DF or standard (S) shoes. The jump tests (performed on a force platform) consisted of squat jump (SJ), countermovement jump (CMJ), and continuous jumps (CJ) during 15 seconds. Measured parameters were jump height, speed at take off, and maximal and average power. Oxygen uptake was measured on a treadmill while subjects ran at 95% of the anaerobic threshold during a 7-minute steady-state period. As compared with S shoes, DF shoes significantly improved the height of SJ (31 +/- 4 cm vs. 34 +/- 4 cm, p = 0.0001), CMJ (32 +/- 4 cm vs. 34 +/- 4 cm, p = 0.0004), and CJ (17.5 +/- 4.2 cm vs. 22.0 +/- 6.0 cm, p = 0.0001). Speed at take off was also significantly higher. Mean power significantly increased in SJ and CJ but not in CMJ. Oxygen uptake was not different between conditions (p = 0.40). Dorsiflexion shoes induce a significant increase in jump performance. These results are in accordance with the concept that a DF of the ankle may induce an increase of the length and strength of the triceps surae (higher torque). However, wearing DF shoes did not require more energy during running. Dorsiflexion shoes could be used to increase jump performance in several sports such as volleyball in which jump height is essential.

Innovation and firm growth: Does firm age play a role?

This paper explores the relationship between firm growth, innovation and firm age. We hypothesize that young firms undertake riskier innovation activities and are more oriented towards employment growth than towards harvesting returns in the form of sales growth. Using an extensive sample of Community Innovation Survey for the period 2004-2010, we apply quantile regressions and a Heckman sample selection technique to study the impact of R&D activities on firm growth according to firm age. Our results show that R&D intensity is positively associated with firm growth. However, for young firms R&D shows an increasing influence across the quantiles, while for old firms R&D shows a stable or perhaps decreasing effect over the quantiles. Firm age shows a significant negative impact among young firms, while for the sample of old firms the impact of firm age becomes non-significant. Our Heckman estimations show the evolution of the impact of the R&D on firm growth confirming a significant impact on sales and productivity growth, while the impact is negligible for employment growth. Keywords: firm age, firm growth, innovation, quantile regression. JEL CODES: L25, L20

Oxygen uptake kinetics and middle distance swimming performance.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine whether V˙O(2) kinetics and specifically, the time constant of transitions from rest to heavy (τ(p)H) and severe (τ(p)S) exercise intensities, are related to middle distance swimming performance. DESIGN: Fourteen highly trained male swimmers (mean ± SD: 20.5 ± 3.0 yr; 75.4 ± 12.4 kg; 1.80 ± 0.07 m) performed an discontinuous incremental test, as well as square wave transitions for heavy and severe swimming intensities, to determine V˙O(2) kinetics parameters using two exponential functions. METHODS: All the tests involved front-crawl swimming with breath-by-breath analysis using the Aquatrainer swimming snorkel. Endurance performance was recorded as the time taken to complete a 400 m freestyle swim within an official competition (T400), one month from the date of the other tests. RESULTS: T400 (Mean ± SD) (251.4 ± 12.4 s) was significantly correlated with τ(p)H (15.8 ± 4.8s; r=0.62; p=0.02) and τ(p)S (15.8 ± 4.7s; r=0.61; p=0.02). The best single predictor of 400 m freestyle time, out of the variables that were assessed, was the velocity at V˙O(2max)vV˙O(2max), which accounted for 80% of the variation in performance between swimmers. However, τ(p)H and V˙O(2max) were also found to influence the prediction of T400 when they were included in a regression model that involved respiratory parameters only. CONCLUSIONS: Faster kinetics during the primary phase of the V˙O(2) response is associated with better performance during middle-distance swimming. However, vV˙O(2max) appears to be a better predictor of T400.

Downsizing, Job Insecurity, and Firm Reputation

This paper studies how firms make layoff decisions in the presence of adverse shocks. In this uncertain environment, workers' expectations about their job security affect their on-the-job performance. This productivity effect on job insecurity forces firms to strike a balance between laying off redundant workers and maintaining survivors' commitment when deciding on the amount and timing of downsizing. This framework offers an explanation of conservative employment practices (such as zero or reduced layoffs) based on firms having private information about their future profits. High retention rates and wages can signal that the firm has a bright future, boosting workers' confidence. Moreover, the model provides clear predictions about when waves of downsizing will occur as opposed to one-time massive cuts.

Banks and development: Jewish communities in the Italian Renaissance and current economic performance

Are differences in local banking development long-lasting? Do they affect long-term economic performance?I answer these questions by relying on an historical development that occurred in Italian cities during the 15thcentury. A sudden change in the Catholic doctrine had driven the Jews toward money lending. Cities thatwere hosting Jewish communities developed complex banking institutions for two reasons: first, the Jews werethe only people in Italy who were allowed to lend for a profit and, second, the Franciscan reaction to Jewishusury led to the creation of charity lending institutions, the Monti di Pietà, that have survived until today andhave become the basis of the Italian banking system. Using Jewish demography in 1500 as an instrument, Iprovide evidence of (1) an extraordinary persistence in the level of banking development across Italian cities (2)large effects of current local banking development on per-capita income. Additional firm-level analyses suggestthat well-functioning local banks exert large effects on aggregate productivity by reallocating resources towardmore efficient firms. I exploit the expulsion of the Jews from the Spanish territories in Italy in 1541 to arguethat my results are not driven by omitted institutional, cultural and geographical characteristics. In particular,I show that, in Central Italy, the difference in current income between cities that hosted Jewish communitiesand cities that did not exists only in those regions that were not Spanish territories in the 16th century.

Globalization and the provision of incentives inside the firm: The effect of foreign competition

This paper studies the effect of changes in foreign competition on the structureof compensation and incentives of U.S. executives. We measure foreign competitionas import penetration and use tariffs and exchange rates as instrumental variables toestimate its causal effect on pay. We find that higher foreign competition leads tomore incentive provision in a variety of ways. First, it increases the sensitivity of payto performance. Second, it increases whithin-firm pay differentials between executivelevels, with CEOs typically experiencing the largest wage increases, partly becausethey receive the steepest incentive contracts. Finally, higher foreign competition is alsoassociated with a higher demand for talent. These results indicate that increased foreigncompetition can explain some of the recent trends in compensation structures.

The effects of uncertainty avoidance on brand performance: Marketing creativity, product innovation and the brand duration

This paper investigates the link between brand performance and cultural primes in high-risk,innovation-based sectors. In theory section, we propose that the level of cultural uncertaintyavoidance embedded in a firm determine its marketing creativity by increasing the complexityand the broadness of a brand. It determines also the rate of firm product innovations.Marketing creativity and product innovation influence finally the firm marketingperformance. Empirically, we study trademarked promotion in the Software Security Industry(SSI). Our sample consists of 87 firms that are active in SSI from 11 countries in the period1993-2000. We use the data coming from SSI-related trademarks registered by these firms,ending up with 2,911 SSI-related trademarks and a panel of 18,213 observations. We estimatea two stage model in which first we predict the complexity and the broadness of a trademarkas a measure of marketing creativity and the rate of product innovations. Among severalcontrol variables, our variable of theoretical interest is the Hofstede s uncertainty avoidancecultural index. Then, we estimate the trademark duration with a hazard model using thepredicted complexity and broadness as well as the rate of product innovations, along with thesame control variables. Our evidence confirms that the cultural avoidance affects the durationof the trademarks through the firm marketing creativity and product innovation.