Modelling the system behaviour of wet snow avalanches using an expert system approach for risk management on high alpine traffic roads

The presented approach describes a model for a rule-based expert system calculating the temporal variability of the release of wet snow avalanches, using the assumption of avalanche triggering without the loading of new snow. The knowledge base of the model is created by using investigations on the system behaviour of wet snow avalanches in the Italian Ortles Alps, and is represented by a fuzzy logic rule-base. Input parameters of the expert system are numerical and linguistic variables, measurable meteorological and topographical factors and observable characteristics of the snow cover. Output of the inference method is the quantified release disposition for wet snow avalanches. Combining topographical parameters and the spatial interpolation of the calculated release disposition a hazard index map is dynamically generated. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal variability of damage potential on roads exposed to wet snow avalanches can be quantified, expressed by the number of persons at risk. The application of the rule base to the available data in the study area generated plausible results. The study demonstrates the potential for the application of expert systems and fuzzy logic in the field of natural hazard monitoring and risk management.

Compactified N = 1 supersymmetric Yang-Mills theory on the lattice: continuity and the disappearance of the deconfinement transition

Fermion boundary conditions play a relevant role in revealing the confinement mechanism of N=1 supersymmetric Yang-Mills theory with one compactified space-time dimension. A deconfinement phase transition occurs for a sufficiently small compactification radius, equivalent to a high temperature in the thermal theory where antiperiodic fermion boundary conditions are applied. Periodic fermion boundary conditions, on the other hand, are related to the Witten index and confinement is expected to persist independently of the length of the compactified dimension. We study this aspect with lattice Monte Carlo simulations for different values of the fermion mass parameter that breaks supersymmetry softly. We find a deconfined region that shrinks when the fermion mass is lowered. Deconfinement takes place between two confined regions at large and small compactification radii, that would correspond to low and high temperatures in the thermal theory. At the smallest fermion masses we find no indication of a deconfinement transition. These results are a first signal for the predicted continuity in the compactification of supersymmetric Yang-Mills theory.

Wet deposition of fossil and non-fossil derived particulate carbon: insights from radiocarbon measurement

Radiocarbon (14C) measurements of both organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) allow a more detailed source apportionment, leading to a full and unambiguous distinction and quantification of the contributions from non-fossil and fossil sources. A thermal-optical method with a commercial OC/EC analyzer to isolate water-insoluble OC (WIOC) and EC for their subsequent 14C measurement was applied for the first time to filtered precipitation samples collected at a costal site in Portugal and at a continental site in Switzerland. Our results show that WIOC in precipitation is dominated by non-fossil sources such as biogenic and biomass-burning emissions regardless of rain origins and seasons, whereas EC sources are shared by fossil-fuel combustion and biomass burning. In addition, monthly variation of WIOC in Switzerland was characterized by higher abundance in warm than in cold seasons, highlighting the importance of biogenic emissions to particulate carbon in rainwater. Samples with high particulate carbon concentrations in Portugal were found to be associated with increased biogenic input. Despite the importance of non-fossil sources, fossil emissions account for approximately 20% of particulate carbon in wet deposition for our study, which is in line with fossil contribution in bulk rainwater dissolved organic carbon as well as aerosol WIOC and EC estimated by the 14C approach from other studies.

Numerical corrections to the strong coupling effective Polyakov-line action for finite T Yang-Mills theory

We consider a three-dimensional effective theory of Polyakov lines derived previously from lattice Yang-Mills theory and QCD by means of a resummed strong coupling expansion. The effective theory is useful for investigations of the phase structure, with a sign problem mild enough to allow simulations also at finite density. In this work we present a numerical method to determine improved values for the effective couplings directly from correlators of 4d Yang-Mills theory. For values of the gauge coupling up to the vicinity of the phase transition, the dominant short range effective coupling are well described by their corresponding strong coupling series. We provide numerical results also for the longer range interactions, Polyakov lines in higher representations as well as four-point interactions, and discuss the growing significance of non-local contributions as the lattice gets finer. Within this approach the critical Yang-Mills coupling β c is reproduced to better than one percent from a one-coupling effective theory on N τ = 4 lattices while up to five couplings are needed on N τ = 8 for the same accuracy.

Space debris attitude simulation - ιOTA (In-Orbit Tumbling Analysis)

Today, there is little knowledge on the attitude state of decommissioned intact objects in Earth orbit. Observational means have advanced in the past years, but are still limited with respect to an accurate estimate of motion vector orientations and magnitude. Especially for the preparation of Active Debris Removal (ADR) missions as planned by ESA’s Clean Space initiative or contingency scenarios for ESA spacecraft like ENVISAT, such knowledge is needed. ESA's “Debris Attitude Motion Measurements and Modelling” project (ESA Contract No. 40000112447), led by the Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern (AIUB), addresses this problem. The goal of the project is to achieve a good understanding of the attitude evolution and the considerable internal and external effects which occur. To characterize the attitude state of selected targets in LEO and GTO, multiple observation methods are combined. Optical observations are carried out by AIUB, Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) is performed by the Space Research Institute of the Austrian Academy of Sciences (IWF) and radar measurements and signal level determination are provided by the Fraunhofer Institute for High Frequency Physics and Radar Techniques (FHR). The In-Orbit Tumbling Analysis tool (ιOTA) is a prototype software, currently in development by Hyperschall Technologie Göttingen GmbH (HTG) within the framework of the project. ιOTA will be a highly modular software tool to perform short-(days), medium-(months) and long-term (years) propagation of the orbit and attitude motion (six degrees-of-freedom) of spacecraft in Earth orbit. The simulation takes into account all relevant acting forces and torques, including aerodynamic drag, solar radiation pressure, gravitational influences of Earth, Sun and Moon, eddy current damping, impulse and momentum transfer from space debris or micro meteoroid impact, as well as the optional definition of particular spacecraft specific influences like tank sloshing, reaction wheel behaviour, magnetic torquer activity and thruster firing. The purpose of ιOTA is to provide high accuracy short-term simulations to support observers and potential ADR missions, as well as medium-and long-term simulations to study the significance of the particular internal and external influences on the attitude, especially damping factors and momentum transfer. The simulation will also enable the investigation of the altitude dependency of the particular external influences. ιOTA's post-processing modules will generate synthetic measurements for observers and for software validation. The validation of the software will be done by cross-calibration with observations and measurements acquired by the project partners.

Wet and dry deposition of 129I in Seville (Spain) measured by accelerator mass spectrometry

Iodine-129 (Full-size image (<1 K)) concentrations have been determined by accelerator mass spectrometry in rainwater samples taken at Seville (southwestern Spain) in 1996 and 1997. This technique allows a reduction in the detection limits for this radionuclide in comparison to radiometric counting and other mass spectrometric methods such as ICP-MS. Typical 129I concentrations range from 4.7×107129I atoms/l (19.2%) to 4.97×109129I atoms/l (5.9%), while 129I depositions are normally in the order of 108–1010 atoms/m2 d. These values agree well with other results obtained for recent rainwater samples collected in Europe. Apart from these, the relationship between 129I deposition and some atmospheric factors has been analyzed, showing the importance of the precipitation rate and the concentration of suspended matter in it.

Robert Watkin-Mills, Kniestück

Signatur des Originals: S 36/F10211