Optimism and commitment: An elementary theory of bargaining and war

We propose an elementary theory of wars fought by fully rational contenders. Two parties play a Markov game that combines stages of bargaining with stages where one side has the ability to impose surrender on the other. Under uncertainty and incomplete information, in the unique equilibrium of the game, long confrontations occur: war arises when reality disappoints initial (rational) optimism, and it persist longer when both agents are optimists but reality proves both wrong. Bargaining proposals that are rejected initially might eventually be accepted after several periods of confrontation. We provide an explicit computation of the equilibrium, evaluating the probability of war, and its expected losses as a function of i) the costs of confrontation, ii) the asymmetry of the split imposed under surrender, and iii) the strengths of contenders at attack and defense. Changes in these parameters display non-monotonic effects.

Bihippocampal damage with emotional dysfunction: impaired auditory recognition of fear.

A right-handed man developed a sudden transient, amnestic syndrome associated with bilateral hemorrhage of the hippocampi, probably due to Urbach-Wiethe disease. In the 3rd month, despite significant hippocampal structural damage on imaging, only a milder degree of retrograde and anterograde amnesia persisted on detailed neuropsychological examination. On systematic testing of recognition of facial and vocal expression of emotion, we found an impairment of the vocal perception of fear, but not that of other emotions, such as joy, sadness and anger. Such selective impairment of fear perception was not present in the recognition of facial expression of emotion. Thus emotional perception varies according to the different aspects of emotions and the different modality of presentation (faces versus voices). This is consistent with the idea that there may be multiple emotion systems. The study of emotional perception in this unique case of bilateral involvement of hippocampus suggests that this structure may play a critical role in the recognition of fear in vocal expression, possibly dissociated from that of other emotions and from that of fear in facial expression. In regard of recent data suggesting that the amygdala is playing a role in the recognition of fear in the auditory as well as in the visual modality this could suggest that the hippocampus may be part of the auditory pathway of fear recognition.

Drug refractory epilepsy in brain damage: effect of dextromethorphan on EEG in four patients.

High doses of dextromethorphan (20-42 mg/kg/day) were given to four critically ill children with seizures and frequent epileptiform abnormalities in the EEG that were refractory to antiepileptic drugs. Their acute diseases (hypoxia, head trauma and hypoxia, neurodegenerative disease, hypoglycaemia) were thought to be due in part to N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) receptor mediated processes. Treatment with dextromethorphan, an NMDA receptor antagonist, was started between 48 hours and 14 days after the critical incident. In three patients the EEG improved considerably within 48 hours and seizures ceased within 72 hours. In the patient with neurodegenerative disease the effect on the EEG was impressive, but the seizures were not controlled. Despite the improvement of the EEG the clinical outcome was poor in all children: three died in the critical period or due to the progressing disease; the patient with hypoglycaemia survived with severe neurological sequelae. Plasma concentrations of dextromethorphan varied between 74-1730 ng/ml and its metabolite dextrorphan varied between 349-3790 ng/ml. In one patient corresponding concentrations in CSF were lower than those in plasma. The suppression of epileptic discharges by the doses of dextromethorphan given suggests that such doses are sufficient to block NMDA receptors.

Motion compensation strategies in magnetic resonance imaging.

Image quality in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is considerably affected by motion. Therefore, motion is one of the most common sources of artifacts in contemporary cardiovascular MRI. Such artifacts in turn may easily lead to misinterpretations in the images and a subsequent loss in diagnostic quality. Hence, there is considerable research interest in strategies that help to overcome these limitations at minimal cost in time, spatial resolution, temporal resolution, and signal-to-noise ratio. This review summarizes and discusses the three principal sources of motion: the beating heart, the breathing lungs, and bulk patient movement. This is followed by a comprehensive overview of commonly used compensation strategies for these different types of motion. Finally, a summary and an outlook are provided.

Civil war and foreign influence

We study a symmetric information bargaining model of civil war where a third (foreign) party can affect the probabilities of winning the conflict and the size of the post conflict spoils. We show that the possible alliance with a third party makes peaceful agreements difficult to reach and might lead to new commitment problems that trigger war. Also, we argue that the foreign party is likely to induce persistent informational asymmetries which might explain long lasting civil wars. We explore both political and economic incentives for a third party to intervene. The explicit consideration of political incentives leads to two predictions that allow for identifying the influence of foreign intervention on civil war incidence. Both predictions are confirmed for the case of the U.S. as a potential intervening nation: (i) civil wars around the world are more likely under Republican governments and (ii) the probability of civil wars decreases with U.S. presidential approval rates.

E2F1 mediates DNA damage and apoptosis through HCF-1 and the MLL family of histone methyltransferases.

E2F1 is a key positive regulator of human cell proliferation and its activity is altered in essentially all human cancers. Deregulation of E2F1 leads to oncogenic DNA damage and anti-oncogenic apoptosis. The molecular mechanisms by which E2F1 mediates these two processes are poorly understood but are important for understanding cancer progression. During the G1-to-S phase transition, E2F1 associates through a short DHQY sequence with the cell-cycle regulator HCF-1 together with the mixed-lineage leukaemia (MLL) family of histone H3 lysine 4 (H3K4) methyltransferases. We show here that the DHQY HCF-1-binding sequence permits E2F1 to stimulate both DNA damage and apoptosis, and that HCF-1 and the MLL family of H3K4 methyltransferases have important functions in these processes. Thus, HCF-1 has a broader role in E2F1 function than appreciated earlier. Indeed, sequence changes in the E2F1 HCF-1-binding site can modulate both up and down the ability of E2F1 to induce apoptosis indicating that HCF-1 association with E2F1 is a regulator of E2F1-induced apoptosis.

SAMHD1 is mutated recurrently in chronic lymphocytic leukemia and is involved in response to DNA damage.

SAMHD1 is a deoxynucleoside triphosphate triphosphohydrolase and a nuclease that restricts HIV-1 in noncycling cells. Germ-line mutations in SAMHD1 have been described in patients with Aicardi-Goutières syndrome (AGS), a congenital autoimmune disease. In a previous longitudinal whole genome sequencing study of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), we revealed a SAMHD1 mutation as a potential founding event. Here, we describe an AGS patient carrying a pathogenic germ-line SAMHD1 mutation who developed CLL at 24 years of age. Using clinical trial samples, we show that acquired SAMHD1 mutations are associated with high variant allele frequency and reduced SAMHD1 expression and occur in 11% of relapsed/refractory CLL patients. We provide evidence that SAMHD1 regulates cell proliferation and survival and engages in specific protein interactions in response to DNA damage. We propose that SAMHD1 may have a function in DNA repair and that the presence of SAMHD1 mutations in CLL promotes leukemia development.

The Recovery of Health Service Costs in Cases Involving Personal Injury Compensation (205KB)

A Consultation Document

Acute Damage to the Posterior Limb of the Internal Capsule on Diffusion Tensor Tractography as an Early Imaging Predictor of Motor Outcome after Stroke

Background and Purpose Early prediction of motor outcome is of interest in stroke management. We aimed to determine whether lesion location at DTT is predictive of motor outcome after acute stroke and whether this information improves the predictive accuracy of the clinical scores. Methods We evaluated 60 consecutive patients within 12 hours of MCA stroke onset. We used DTT to evaluate CST involvement in the MC and PMC, CS, CR, and PLIC and in combinations of these regions at admission, at day 3, and at day 30. Severity of limb weakness was assessed using the m-NIHSS (5a, 5b, 6a, 6b). We calculated volumes of infarct and FA values in the CST of the pons. Results Acute damage to the PLIC was the best predictor associated with poor motor outcome, axonal damage, and clinical severity at admission (P&.001). There was no significant correlation between acute infarct volume and motor outcome at day 90 (P=.176, r=0.485). The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of acute CST involvement at the level of the PLIC for 4 motor outcome at day 90 were 73.7%, 100%, 100%, and 89.1%, respectively. In the acute stage, DTT predicted motor outcome at day 90 better than the clinical scores (R2=75.50, F=80.09, P&.001). Conclusions In the acute setting, DTT is promising for stroke mapping to predict motor outcome. Acute CST damage at the level of the PLIC is a significant predictor of unfavorable motor outcome.

Morphometric Vertebral Assessments via the Use of Dual X-ray Absorptiometry for the Evaluation of Radiographic Damage in Ankylosing Spondylitis: A Pilot Study.

We performed a pilot study to compare vertebral fracture assessments (VFA) and lateral X-rays in terms of inter- and intraobserver reliability and degree of correlation for the detection of syndesmophytes in ankylosing spondylitis (AS). We recruited 19 patients with AS and recent lumbar or cervical lateral X-rays with at least one syndesmophyte. Each patient underwent dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry with measurement of bone mineral density and dorso-lumbar VFA. Intra- and interreader reliability for VFA and X-rays were measured using 2 independent, blinded observers and Cohen's kappa values. An adapted modified Stoke Ankylosing Spondylitis Spinal Score (amSASSS) was generated with each method, and these 2 values correlated. For X-rays, intraobserver and interobserver agreement were 94.3% (κ = 0.83) and 98.6% (κ = 0.96), respectively; for VFA, corresponding values were 92.8% (κ = 0.79) and 93.8% (κ = 0.82). Overall agreement between the 2 techniques was 88.6% (κ = 0.72). The Pearson correlation coefficient for the 2 methods was 0.95 for the modified Stoke Ankylosing Spondylitis Spinal Score . Per dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry-generated bone mineral density, >50% of patients were osteopenic and 10% osteoporotic. In terms of reproducibility and correlation with X-rays, performing a VFA appears to be a candidate for assessing radiographic damage in AS, thought further research is necessary to justify this indication.