Intra-Group Competition and Inter-Group Conflict: An Application to Northern Ireland

This paper reviews four economic theories of leadership selection in conflictual settings. The first of these by Cukierman and Tomassi (1998) labeled the ‘information rationale’, argues that hawks may actually be necessary to initiate peace agreements. The second labeled the ‘bargaining rationale’ borrowing from Hamlin and Jennings (2007) agrees with the conventional wisdom that doves are more likely to secure peace, but post-conflict there are good reasons for hawks to be rationally selected. The third found in Jennings and Roelfsema (2008) is labeled the social psychological rationale. This captures the idea of a competition over which group can form the strongest identity, so can apply to group choices which do not impinge upon bargaining power. As in the bargaining rationale, dove selection can be predicted during conflict, but hawk selection post-conflict. Finally, the expressive rationale is discussed which predicts that regardless of the underlying structure of the game (informational, bargaining, psychological) the large group nature of decision-making by making individual decision makers non-decisive in determining the outcome of elections may cause them to make choices based primarily on emotions which may be invariant with the mode of group interaction, be it conflictual or peaceful. Finally, the paper analyses the extent to which the theories can throw light on Northern Ireland electoral history over the last 25 years.

Bargaining and Conflict with Incomplete Information

This paper studies bargaining and conflict under incomplete information, provides an overview and a critical account of the literature on the topic and contributes with original research. We first revise models of mechanism design and sequential bargaining that take confrontation as final. Conflict and inefficiencies are to be expected in these models whenever parties have optimistic prospects on the outcome of the all-out conflict. After examining the causes and reasons for this optimism, we move to the analysis of the recent literature that considers the existence of limited confrontations that allow bargaining to resume. In the presence of private information, these limited conflicts convey information and thus become a bargaining instrument. The paper closes with a discussion on the related empirical literature, the challenges that it faces and some potential avenues for further research.

A Behavioural Model of Choice in the Presence of Decision Conflict

This paper proposes a model of choice that does not assume completeness of the decision maker’s preferences. The model explains in a natural way, and within a unified framework of choice when preference-incomparable options are present, four behavioural phenomena: the attraction effect, choice deferral, the strengthening of the attraction effect when deferral is per-missible, and status quo bias. The key element in the proposed decision rule is that an individual chooses an alternative from a menu if it is worse than no other alternative in that menu and is also better than at least one. Utility-maximising behaviour is included as a special case when preferences are complete. The relevance of the partial dominance idea underlying the proposed choice procedure is illustrated with an intuitive generalisation of weakly dominated strategies and their iterated deletion in games with vector payoffs.

ADOS: an educational primary prevention programme for preventing excess body weight in adolescents.

OBJECTIVE: The prevalence of adolescent obesity has increased considerably over the past decade in Switzerland and has become a serious public health problem in Europe. Prevention of obesity using various comprehensive programmes appears to be very promising, although we must admit that several interventions had generally disappointing results compared with the objectives and target initially fixed. Holistic programmes including nutritional education combined with promotion of physical activity and behaviour modification constitute the key factors in the prevention of childhood and adolescent obesity. The purpose of this programme was to incorporate nutrition/physical education as well as psychological aspects in selected secondary schools (9th grade, 14-17 years). METHODS: The educational strategy was based on the development of a series of 13 practical workshops covering wide areas such as physical inactivity, body composition, sugar, energy density, invisible lipids, how to read food labels, is meal duration important? Do you eat with pleasure or not? Do you eat because you are hungry? Emotional eating. For teachers continuing education, a basic highly illustrated guide was developed as a companion booklet to the workshops. These materials were first validated by biology, physical education, dietician and psychologist teachers as well as school medical officers. RESULTS: Teachers considered the practical educational materials innovative and useful, motivational and easy to understand. Up to now (early 2008), the programme has been implemented in 50 classes or more from schools originating from three areas in the French part of Switzerland. Based on the 1-week pedometer value assessed before and after the 1 school-year programme, an initial evaluation indicated that overall physical placidity was significantly decreased as evidenced by a significant rise in the number of steps per day. CONCLUSION: Future evaluation will provide more information on the effectiveness of the ADOS programme.

Linking conflict to inequality and polarization

In this paper we study a behavioral model of conflict that provides a basis for choosing certain indices of dispersion as indicators for conflict. We show that the (equilibrium) level of conflict can be expressed as an (approximate) linear function of the Gini coefficient, the Herfindahl-Hirschman fractionalization index, and a specific measure of polarization due to Esteban and Ray

Prevention and treatment options for postoperative delirium in the elderly.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To review recent findings and developments in strategies for prevention and treatment of postoperative delirium. RECENT FINDINGS: Current advances in the field include improved knowledge about predisposing and precipitating factors, evidence for efficacy of multicomponent prevention programmes, refinement of perioperative procedures, and promising pharmacological approaches for prophylaxis and management of postoperative delirium. SUMMARY: Postoperative delirium is a common and serious complication in elderly patients. Preoperative assessment of risk profiles and tailored multimodal prevention approaches proved effective and should be integrated into clinical practice. Despite promising recent findings, at present, the routine use of pharmacological prophylaxis cannot be recommended. Validated and easy-to-use bedside diagnostic tools are available and should be regularly applied for delirium screening in the first days after surgery. In patients developing delirium, causal conditions and contributing factors need to be identified and addressed. Whereas administration of antipsychotics may represent an option for symptomatic treatment, further studies are needed to evaluate the effects of pharmacological approaches on long-term outcomes in elderly patients with delirium.

US Monetary and Fiscal Policies - Conflict or Cooperation?

Most of the literature estimating DSGE models for monetary policy analysis ignores fiscal policy and assumes that monetary policy follows a simple rule. In this paper we allow both fiscal and monetary policy to be described by rules and/or optimal policy which are subject to switches over time. We find that US monetary and fiscal policy have often been in conflict, and that it is relatively rare that we observe the benign policy combination of an conservative monetary policy paired with a debt stabilizing fiscal policy. In a series of counterfactuals, a conservative central bank following a time-consistent fiscal policy leader would come close to mimicking the cooperative Ramsey policy. However, if policy makers cannot credibly commit to such a regime, monetary accommodation of the prevailing fiscal regime may actually be welfare improving.

Violent adolescents and their educational environment : a multilevel analysis ; et, Youths carrying a weapon or using a weapon in a fight : what makes the difference ?

Rapport de synthèse : Cette recherche s'intéresse (1) au port et à l'utilisation d'armes chez les adolescents ainsi que (2) aux rôles des facteurs environnementaux et individuels dans la violence juvénile. Les données étaient tirés de SMASH 2002 (Swiss multicenter adolescent survey on health 2002), étude dans laquelle un échantillon représentatif de 7548 étudiants et apprentis âgés entre 16 et 20 ans vivant en Suisse ont été interrogés Dans une première étude, les adolescents ayant porté une arme (couteau, masse, coup de poing américain, pistolet/autre arme à feu, spray) durant l'année précédant l'enquête étaient comparés avec ceux n'ayant pas porté d'arme. Ensuite, dans le sous-échantillon de porteurs d'armes, ceux ayant uniquement porté l'arme étaient comparés avec ceux ayant utilisé une arme dans une bagarre. Des facteurs individuels, familiaux, scolaires et sociaux ont été étudiés à l'aide d'analyses bivariées et multivariées. 13.7% des jeunes vivant en Suisse ont porté une arme dans l'année précédant l'enquête. 6.2% des filles porteuses d'armes et 19.9% des garçons porteurs d'armes ont fait usage de l'arme dans une bagarre. Chez les garçons et chez les filles, les porteurs d'armes étaient plus souvent délinquants et victimes de violence physique. Les garçons porteurs d'armes étaient plus souvent des apprentis, à la recherche de sensations fortes, porteurs de tatouages, avaient une mauvaise relation avec leurs parents, étaient dans des bagarres sous l'influence de substances, et avaient des relations sexuelles à risque. En comparaison avec les porteuses d'armes, les filles utilisatrices d'armes étaient plus souvent fumeuses quotidiennes. Les garçons ayant utilisé leur arme étaient plus souvent nés à l'étranger, vivaient dans un milieu urbain, étaient des apprentis, avaient un mauvais contexte scolaire, avaient des relations sexuelles à risque et étaient impliqués dans des bagarres sous l'influence de substances. Nos résultats montrent que porter une arme est un comportement relativement fréquent chez les adolescents vivant en Suisse et qu'une proportion non négligeable de ces porteurs d'armes ont utilisé l'arme dans une bagarre. De ce fait, une discussion sur le port d'arme devrait être incluse dans l'entretien clinique ainsi que dans les programmes de prévention visant les adolescents. Dans une deuxième étude, la violence juvénile était définie comme présente si l'adolescent avait commis au moins un des quatre délits suivants durant l'année précédant l'enquête: attaquer un adulte, arracher ou voler quelque chose, porter une arme ou utiliser une arme dans une bagarre. Des niveaux écologiques étaient testés et résultaient en un modèle à trois niveaux pour les garçons (niveau individuel, niveau classe et niveau école) et, à cause d'une faible prévalence de la violence chez les filles, en un modèle à un niveau (individuel) pour les filles. Des variables dépendantes étaient attribuées à chaque niveau, en se basant sur la littérature. Le modèle multiniveaux des garçons montrait que le niveau école (10%) et le niveau classe (24%) comptaient pour plus d'un tiers de la variance inter-individuelle dans le comportement violent. Les facteurs associés à ce comportement chez les filles étaient être victime de violence physique et la recherche de sensations fortes. Pour les garçons, les facteurs explicatifs de la violence étaient pratiquer des relations sexuelles à risque, être à la recherche de sensations fortes, être victime de violence physique, avoir une mauvaise relation avec les parents, être déprimé et vivre dans une famille monoparentale au niveau individuel, la violence et les actes antisociaux au niveau de la classe et être apprenti au niveau de l'école. Des interventions au niveau de la classe ainsi qu'un règlement explicit en ce qui concerne la violence et d'autres comportements à risque dans des écoles devraient être prioritaires pour la prévention de la violence chez les adolescents. En outre, la prévention devrait tenir compte des différences entre les sexes.

ESCMID* guideline for the diagnosis and management of Candida diseases 2012: prevention and management of invasive infections in neonates and children caused by Candida spp.

Invasive candidiasis (IC) is a relatively common syndrome in neonates and children and is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. These guidelines provide recommendations for the prevention and treatment of IC in neonates and children. Appropriate agents for the prevention of IC in neonates at high risk include fluconazole (A-I), nystatin (B-II) or lactoferrin ± Lactobacillus (B-II). The treatment of IC in neonates is complicated by the high likelihood of disseminated disease, including the possibility of infection within the central nervous system. Amphotericin B deoxycholate (B-II), liposomal amphotericin B (B-II), amphotericin B lipid complex (ABLC) (C-II), fluconazole (B-II), micafungin (B-II) and caspofungin (C-II) can all be potentially used. Recommendations for the prevention of IC in children are largely extrapolated from studies performed in adults with concomitant pharmacokinetic data and models in children. For allogeneic HSCT recipients, fluconazole (A-I), voriconazole (A-I), micafungin (A-I), itraconazole (B-II) and posaconazole (B-II) can all be used. Similar recommendations are made for the prevention of IC in children in other risk groups. With several exceptions, recommendations for the treatment of IC in children are extrapolated from adult studies, with concomitant pharmacokinetic studies. Amphotericin B deoxycholate (C-I), liposomal amphotericin B (A-I), ABLC (B-II), micafungin (A-I), caspofungin (A-I), anidulafungin (B-II), fluconazole (B-I) and voriconazole (B-I) can all be used.