Severity of driver injury and vehicle damage in traffic crashes at intersections: A Bayesian hierarchical analysis

Most crash severity studies ignored severity correlations between driver-vehicle units involved in the same crashes. Models without accounting for these within-crash correlations will result in biased estimates in the factor effects. This study developed a Bayesian hierarchical binomial logistic model to identify the significant factors affecting the severity level of driver injury and vehicle damage in traffic crashes at signalized intersections. Crash data in Singapore were employed to calibrate the model. Model fitness assessment and comparison using Intra-class Correlation Coefficient (ICC) and Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) ensured the suitability of introducing the crash-level random effects. Crashes occurring in peak time, in good street lighting condition, involving pedestrian injuries are associated with a lower severity, while those in night time, at T/Y type intersections, on right-most lane, and installed with red light camera have larger odds of being severe. Moreover, heavy vehicles have a better resistance on severe crash, while crashes involving two-wheel vehicles, young or aged drivers, and the involvement of offending party are more likely to result in severe injuries.

Applying Bayesian hierarchical models to examine motorcycle crashes at signalized intersections

Motorcycles are overrepresented in road traffic crashes and particularly vulnerable at signalized intersections. The objective of this study is to identify causal factors affecting the motorcycle crashes at both four-legged and T signalized intersections. Treating the data in time-series cross-section panels, this study explores different Hierarchical Poisson models and found that the model allowing autoregressive lag 1 dependent specification in the error term is the most suitable. Results show that the number of lanes at the four-legged signalized intersections significantly increases motorcycle crashes largely because of the higher exposure resulting from higher motorcycle accumulation at the stop line. Furthermore, the presence of a wide median and an uncontrolled left-turn lane at major roadways of four-legged intersections exacerbate this potential hazard. For T signalized intersections, the presence of exclusive right-turn lane at both major and minor roadways and an uncontrolled left-turn lane at major roadways of T intersections increases motorcycle crashes. Motorcycle crashes increase on high-speed roadways because they are more vulnerable and less likely to react in time during conflicts. The presence of red light cameras reduces motorcycle crashes significantly for both four-legged and T intersections. With the red-light camera, motorcycles are less exposed to conflicts because it is observed that they are more disciplined in queuing at the stop line and less likely to jump start at the start of green.

Right-angle crash vulnerability of motorcycles at signalized intersections : mixed logit analysis

Motorcycles are particularly vulnerable in right-angle crashes at signalized intersections. The objective of this study is to explore how variations in roadway characteristics, environmental factors, traffic factors, maneuver types, human factors as well as driver demographics influence the right-angle crash vulnerability of motorcycles at intersections. The problem is modeled using a mixed logit model with a binary choice category formulation to differentiate how an at-fault vehicle collides with a not-at-fault motorcycle in comparison to other collision types. The mixed logit formulation allows randomness in the parameters and hence takes into account the underlying heterogeneities potentially inherent in driver behavior, and other unobserved variables. A likelihood ratio test reveals that the mixed logit model is indeed better than the standard logit model. Night time riding shows a positive association with the vulnerability of motorcyclists. Moreover, motorcyclists are particularly vulnerable on single lane roads, on the curb and median lanes of multi-lane roads, and on one-way and two-way road type relative to divided-highway. Drivers who deliberately run red light as well as those who are careless towards motorcyclists especially when making turns at intersections increase the vulnerability of motorcyclists. Drivers appear more restrained when there is a passenger onboard and this has decreased the crash potential with motorcyclists. The presence of red light cameras also significantly decreases right-angle crash vulnerabilities of motorcyclists. The findings of this study would be helpful in developing more targeted countermeasures for traffic enforcement, driver/rider training and/or education, safety awareness programs to reduce the vulnerability of motorcyclists.

Factors affecting motorcycle crashes at signalized intersections

Singapore crash statistics show that motorcycles are involved in about 54% of crashes at intersections. Moreover, about 46% of fatal and 67% of injury motorcycle crashes occur at signalized intersections. The objective of this study is to identify causal factors affecting the motorcycle crashes at both four-legged and three-legged signalized intersections. Treating the data in time-series cross-section panels, this study explores different Hierarchical Poisson models and found that the model allowing autoregressive lag 1 dependent specification in the error term is the most suitable. Analysis of the results shows the number of lanes at the intersections significantly increases motorcycle crashes largely because of the higher exposure resulting from higher motorcycle accumulation at the stop line. Furthermore, the presence of a wide median at four-legged intersections and an exclusive right-turn lane and an uncontrolled left-turn lane at three-legged intersections exacerbate this potential hazard. Moreover, motorcycle crashes increase on high-speed roadways because of the vulnerability of the motorcyclists. The presence of red light cameras reduces motorcycle crashes significantly on the intersection roadways for both four-legged and three-legged intersections. With the red-light camera, motorcycles are less exposed to conflicts because it is observed that they are more disciplined in queuing at the stop line and less likely to jump start at the start of green.

Motorcycle safety at signalized intersections

Motorcycles are overrepresented in road traffic crashes and particularly vulnerable at signalized intersections. ‘Motorcycle safety at signalized intersections’ provides an in-depth understanding of hazards of motorcycles at signalized intersections and suggests some targeted countermeasures to alleviate the problem. Motorcycle safety has been examined by establishing innovative statistical models with detailed investigation on specific maneuver behavior of motorcycles at intersections. Results indicate that motorcyclists are over exposed at signalized intersections and the excess exposure is one of main contributors to their vulnerability at intersections. The presence of red light cameras at intersections not only lower motorcycle crashes due to reduced red-light running in the conflicting stream but also decrease their exposure and hence crashes due to a more restrained discharge pattern of motorcycles. Targeted countermeasures should include deployment of red-light cameras, improvement in motorcyclist visibility and increased awareness on motorcyclist vulnerability.

Negative space and positive environment : mapping opportunities for urban resilience

Cities have long held a fascination for people – as they grow and develop, there is a desire to know and understand the intricate interplay of elements that makes cities ‘live’. In part, this is a need for even greater efficiency in urban centres, yet the underlying quest is for a sustainable urban form. In order to make sense of the complex entities that we recognise cities to be, they have been compared to buildings, organisms and more recently machines. However the search for better and more elegant urban centres is hardly new, healthier and more efficient settlements were the aim of Modernism’s rational sub-division of functions, which has been translated into horizontal distribution through zoning, or vertical organisation thought highrise developments. However both of these approaches have been found to be unsustainable, as too many resources are required to maintain this kind or urbanisation and social consequences of either horizontal or vertical isolation must also be considered. From being absolute consumers of resources, of energy and of technology, cities need to change, to become sustainable in order to be more resilient and more efficient in supporting culture, society as well as economy. Our urban centres need to be re-imagined, re-conceptualised and re-defined, to match our changing society. One approach is to re-examine the compartmentalised, mono-functional approach of urban Modernism and to begin to investigate cities like ecologies, where every element supports and incorporates another, fulfilling more than just one function. This manner of seeing the city suggests a framework to guide the re-mixing of urban settlements. Beginning to understand the relationships between supporting elements and the nature of the connecting ‘web’ offers an invitation to investigate the often ignored, remnant spaces of cities. This ‘negative space’ is the residual from which space and place are carved out in the Contemporary city, providing the link between elements of urban settlement. Like all successful ecosystems, cities need to evolve and change over time in order to effectively respond to different lifestyles, development in culture and society as well as to meet environmental challenges. This paper seeks to investigate the role that negative space could have in the reorganisation of the re-mixed city. The space ‘in-between’ is analysed as an opportunity for infill development or re-development which provides to the urban settlement the variety that is a pre-requisite for ecosystem resilience. An analysis of the urban form is suggested as an empirical tool to map the opportunities already present in the urban environment and negative space is evaluated as a key element in achieving a positive development able to distribute diverse environmental and social facilities in the city.

Influence of medium range transport of particles from nucleation burst on particle number concentration within the urban airshed

An elevated particle number concentration (PNC) observed during nucleation events could play a significant contribution to the total particle load and therefore to the air pollution in the urban environments. Therefore, a field measurement study of PNC was commenced to investigate the temporal and spatial variations of PNC within the urban airshed of Brisbane, Australia. PNC was monitored at urban (QUT), roadside (WOO) and semi-urban (ROC) areas around the Brisbane region during 2009. During the morning traffic peak period, the highest relative fraction of PNC reached about 5% at QUT and WOO on weekdays. PNC peaks were observed around noon, which correlated with the highest solar radiation levels at all three stations, thus suggesting that high PNC levels were likely to be associated with new particle formation caused by photochemical reactions. Wind rose plots showed relatively higher PNC for the NE direction, which was associated with industrial pollution, accounting for 12%, 9% and 14% of overall PNC at QUT, WOO and ROC, respectively. Although there was no significant correlation between PNC at each station, the variation of PNC was well correlated among three stations during regional nucleation events. In addition, PNC at ROC was significantly influenced by upwind urban pollution during the nucleation burst events, with the average enrichment factor of 15.4. This study provides an insight into the influence of regional nucleation events on PNC in the Brisbane region and it the first study to quantify the effect of urban pollution on semi-urban PNC through the nucleation events. © 2012 Author(s).

Vertical particle concentration profiles around urban office buildings

Despite its role in determining both indoor and outdoor human exposure to anthropogenic particles, there is limited information describing vertical profiles of particle concentrations in urban environments, especially for ultrafine particles. Furthermore, the results of the few studies performed have been inconsistent. As such, this study aimed to assess the influence of vehicle emissions and nucleation formation on particle characteristics (particle number size distribution-PNSD and PM 2.5 concentration) at different heights around three urban office buildings located next to busy roads in Brisbane, Australia, and place these results in the broader context of the existing literature. Two sets of instruments were used to simultaneously measure PNSD, particle number (PN) and PM 2.5 concentrations, respectively, for up to three weeks at each building. The results showed that both PNSD and PM 2.5 concentration around building envelopes were influenced by vehicle emissions and new particle formation, and that they exhibited variability across the three different office buildings. During nucleation events, PN concentration in size range of <30 nm and total PN concentration increased (7-65% and 5-46%, respectively), while PM 2.5 concentration decreased (36-52%) with height. This study has shown an under acknowledged role for nucleation in producing particles that can affect large numbers of people, due to the high density and occupancy of urban office buildings and the fact that the vast majority of people's time is spent indoors. These findings highlight important new information related to the previously overlooked role of particle formation in the urban atmosphere and its potential effects on selection of air intake locations and appropriate filter types when designing or upgrading mechanical ventilation systems in urban office buildings. The results also serve to better define particle behaviour and variability around building envelopes, which has implications for studies of both human exposure and particle dynamics. © 2012 Author(s).

No cure for curiosity: Linking physical and digital urban layers

Although mobile phones are often used in public urban places to interact with one’s geographically dispersed social circle, they can also facilitate interactions with people in the same public urban space. The PlaceTagz study investigates how physical artefacts in public urban places can be utilised and combined with mobile phone technologies to facilitate interactions. Printed on stickers, PlaceTagz are QR codes linking to a digital message board enabling collocated users to interact with each other over time resulting in a place-based digital memory. This exploratory project set out to investigate if and how PlaceTagz are used by urban dwellers in a real world deployment. We present findings from analysing content received through PlaceTagz and interview data from application users. QR codes, which do not contain any contextual information, piqued the curiosity of users wondering about the embedded link’s destination and provoked comments in regards to people, place and technology.

Towards a comprehensive and integrated knowledge-based urban development model : status quo and directions

Incorporating knowledge based urban development (KBUD) strategies in the urban planning and development process is a challenging and complex task due to the fragmented and incoherent nature of the existing KBUD models. This paper scrutinizes and compares these KBUD models with an aim of identifying key and common features that help in developing a new comprehensive and integrated KBUD model. The features and characteristics of the existing KBUD models are determined through a thorough literature review and the analysis reveals that while these models are invaluable and useful in some cases, lack of a comprehensive perspective and absence of full integration of all necessary development domains render them incomplete as a generic model. The proposed KBUD model considers all central elements of urban development and sets an effective platform for planners and developers to achieve more holistic development outcomes. The proposed model, when developed further, has a high potential to support researchers, practitioners and particularly city and state administrations that are aiming to a knowledge-based development.

Comparing: knowledge-based urban development of Vancouver, Melbourne, Manchester and Boston

The research reported in this paper introduces a knowledge-based urban development assessment framework, which is constructed in order to evaluate and assist in the (re)formulation of local and regional policy frameworks and applications necessary in knowledge city transformations. The paper also reports the findings of an application of this framework in a comparative study of Boston, Vancouver, Melbourne and Manchester. The paper with its assessment framework: demonstrates an innovative way of examining the knowledge-based development capacity of cities by scrutinising their economic, socio-cultural, enviro-urban and institutional development mechanisms and capabilities; presents some of the generic indicators used to evaluate knowledge-based development performance of cities; reveals how a city can benchmark its development level against that of other cities, and; provides insights for achieving a more sustainable and knowledge-based development.