Endogenous labor market participation and the business cycle

Existing models of equilibrium unemployment with endogenous labor market participation are complex, generate procyclical unemployment rates and cannot match unemployment variability relative to GDP. We embed endogenous participation in a simple, tractable job market matching model, show analytically how variations in the participation rate are driven by the cross-sectional density of home productivity near the participation threshold, andhow this density translates into an extensive-margin labor supply elasticity. A calibration of the model to macro data not only matches employment and participation variabilities but also generates strongly countercyclical unemployment rates. With some wage rigidity the model also matches unemployment variations well. Furthermore, the labor supply elasticity implied by our calibration is consistent with microeconometric evidence for the US.

Fish ecology in Lake Banyoles (NE Spain): a tribute to Ramon Margalef

Lake Banyoles is the second largest lake in the Iberian Peninsula and due to this relative uniqueness, its peculiar geological origin, and its considerable age attracted the early attention of the late Professor Ramon Margalef. One of the first papers by Margalef was on the biota of Lake Banyoles and two of the first four Ph.D. theses that he supervised were about the limnology of this lake. Unfortunately, the uniqueness of this lake also implied that it was the first place of introduction into the Iberian Peninsula of several exotic fish species, early in the XXth Century and nowadays the lake fish assemblage is dominated by invasive species, and some native ones have been extirpated. Although the limnological studies in Lake Banyoles were pioneering within the Iberian Peninsula, studies on fish ecology of the lake did not start until 1989. Thereafter, four Ph.D. theses have been completed on different aspects of the fish assemblages of Lake Banyoles. The aim of this paper is to provide a short overview of this research, largely brought about by the considerable limnological information previously available for this lake, thanks to the insightful, pioneering work of Professor Margalef

Indústria, mineria i artesania en toponímia rural: el cas del municipi d’Osor (la Selva)

The study presented is interdisciplinary names: the presence of place names related with industrial, artisanal or mining activities in rural areas. The main hypothesis refers to this fact; the uniqueness of industrial, mining or craft in a rural area is an important reason to influence their names, a fact that gives archaeological value, remembering economic activities now disappeared. The methodology used for the study has been usually applied in onomastic studies: compilation of names from field work, oral interviews, archival work, revision of ancient documents and revision of works and studies related to the cartography of Osor. The final conclusion is that, as proposed in the hypothesis, in a rural area as the studied, the low presence of industrial, artisanal or mining activities have generated place names that have helped in keeping the memory of economic activities now disappeared

Uncertainty Quantification with Support Vector Regression Prediction Models

Uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models is one of the present challenges, which is usually approached with a wide range of geostatistical tools linked with statistical optimisation or/and inference algorithms. The paper considers a data driven approach in modelling uncertainty in spatial predictions. Proposed semi-supervised Support Vector Regression (SVR) model has demonstrated its capability to represent realistic features and describe stochastic variability and non-uniqueness of spatial properties. It is able to capture and preserve key spatial dependencies such as connectivity, which is often difficult to achieve with two-point geostatistical models. Semi-supervised SVR is designed to integrate various kinds of conditioning data and learn dependences from them. A stochastic semi-supervised SVR model is integrated into a Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty with multiple models fitted to dynamic observations. The developed approach is illustrated with a reservoir case study. The resulting probabilistic production forecasts are described by uncertainty envelopes.

Time consistent Pareto solutions in common access resource gameswith asymmetric players

In the analysis of equilibrium policies in a di erential game, if agents have different time preference rates, the cooperative (Pareto optimum) solution obtained by applying the Pontryagin's Maximum Principle becomes time inconsistent. In this work we derive a set of dynamic programming equations (in discrete and continuous time) whose solutions are time consistent equilibrium rules for N-player cooperative di erential games in which agents di er in their instantaneous utility functions and also in their discount rates of time preference. The results are applied to the study of a cake-eating problem describing the management of a common property exhaustible natural resource. The extension of the results to a simple common property renewable natural resource model in in nite horizon is also discussed.

Vertical Syndication-Proof Competitive Prices in Multilateral Markets

[eng] A multi-sided Böhm-Bawerk assignment game (Tejada, to appear) is a model for a multilateral market with a finite number of perfectly complementary indivisible commodities owned by different sellers, and inflexible demand and support functions. We show that for each such market game there is a unique vector of competitive prices for the commodities that is vertical syndication-proof, in the sense that, at those prices, syndication of sellers each owning a different commodity is neither beneficial nor detrimental for the buyers. Since, moreover, the benefits obtained by the agents at those prices correspond to the nucleolus of the market game, we provide a syndication-based foundation for the nucleolus as an appropriate solution concept for market games. For different solution concepts a syndicate can be disadvantageous and there is no escape to Aumman’s paradox (Aumann, 1973). We further show that vertical syndicationproofness and horizontal syndication-proofness – in which sellers of the same commodity collude – are incompatible requirements under some mild assumptions. Our results build on a self-interesting link between multi-sided Böhm-Bawerk assignment games and bankruptcy games (O’Neill, 1982). We identify a particular subset of Böhm-Bawerk assignment games and we show that it is isomorphic to the whole class of bankruptcy games. This isomorphism enables us to show the uniqueness of the vector of vertical syndication-proof prices for the whole class of Böhm-Bawerk assignment market using well-known results of bankruptcy problems.

Disordered backgammon model

In this paper we consider an exactly solvable model that displays glassy behavior at zero temperature due to entropic barriers. The new ingredient of the model is the existence of different energy scales or modes associated with different relaxational time scales. Low-temperature relaxation takes place by partial equilibration of successive lower-energy modes. An adiabatic scaling solution, defined in terms of a threshold energy scale e*, is proposed. For such a solution, modes with energy ee* are equilibrated at the bath temperature, modes with ee* remain out of equilibrium, and relaxation occurs in the neighborhood of the threshold e~e*. The model is presented as a toy example to investigate the conditions related to the existence of an effective temperature in glassy systems and its possible dependence on the energy sector is probed by the corresponding observable.

Time consistent Pareto solutions in common access resource gameswith asymmetric players

In the analysis of equilibrium policies in a di erential game, if agents have different time preference rates, the cooperative (Pareto optimum) solution obtained by applying the Pontryagin's Maximum Principle becomes time inconsistent. In this work we derive a set of dynamic programming equations (in discrete and continuous time) whose solutions are time consistent equilibrium rules for N-player cooperative di erential games in which agents di er in their instantaneous utility functions and also in their discount rates of time preference. The results are applied to the study of a cake-eating problem describing the management of a common property exhaustible natural resource. The extension of the results to a simple common property renewable natural resource model in in nite horizon is also discussed.

Vertical Syndication-Proof Competitive Prices in Multilateral Markets

[eng] A multi-sided Böhm-Bawerk assignment game (Tejada, to appear) is a model for a multilateral market with a finite number of perfectly complementary indivisible commodities owned by different sellers, and inflexible demand and support functions. We show that for each such market game there is a unique vector of competitive prices for the commodities that is vertical syndication-proof, in the sense that, at those prices, syndication of sellers each owning a different commodity is neither beneficial nor detrimental for the buyers. Since, moreover, the benefits obtained by the agents at those prices correspond to the nucleolus of the market game, we provide a syndication-based foundation for the nucleolus as an appropriate solution concept for market games. For different solution concepts a syndicate can be disadvantageous and there is no escape to Aumman’s paradox (Aumann, 1973). We further show that vertical syndicationproofness and horizontal syndication-proofness – in which sellers of the same commodity collude – are incompatible requirements under some mild assumptions. Our results build on a self-interesting link between multi-sided Böhm-Bawerk assignment games and bankruptcy games (O’Neill, 1982). We identify a particular subset of Böhm-Bawerk assignment games and we show that it is isomorphic to the whole class of bankruptcy games. This isomorphism enables us to show the uniqueness of the vector of vertical syndication-proof prices for the whole class of Böhm-Bawerk assignment market using well-known results of bankruptcy problems.

Stochastic differential equations with random coefficients

In this paper we establish the existence and uniqueness of a solution for different types of stochastic differential equation with random initial conditions and random coefficients. The stochastic integral is interpreted as a generalized Stratonovich integral, and the techniques used to derive these results are mainly based on the path properties of the Brownian motion, and the definition of the Stratonovich integral.

Behavioural queueing : cellular automata and a laboratory experiment

Dans cette thèse, nous étudions les aspects comportementaux d'agents qui interagissent dans des systèmes de files d'attente à l'aide de modèles de simulation et de méthodologies expérimentales. Chaque période les clients doivent choisir un prestataire de servivce. L'objectif est d'analyser l'impact des décisions des clients et des prestataires sur la formation des files d'attente. Dans un premier cas nous considérons des clients ayant un certain degré d'aversion au risque. Sur la base de leur perception de l'attente moyenne et de la variabilité de cette attente, ils forment une estimation de la limite supérieure de l'attente chez chacun des prestataires. Chaque période, ils choisissent le prestataire pour lequel cette estimation est la plus basse. Nos résultats indiquent qu'il n'y a pas de relation monotone entre le degré d'aversion au risque et la performance globale. En effet, une population de clients ayant un degré d'aversion au risque intermédiaire encoure généralement une attente moyenne plus élevée qu'une population d'agents indifférents au risque ou très averses au risque. Ensuite, nous incorporons les décisions des prestataires en leur permettant d'ajuster leur capacité de service sur la base de leur perception de la fréquence moyenne d'arrivées. Les résultats montrent que le comportement des clients et les décisions des prestataires présentent une forte "dépendance au sentier". En outre, nous montrons que les décisions des prestataires font converger l'attente moyenne pondérée vers l'attente de référence du marché. Finalement, une expérience de laboratoire dans laquelle des sujets jouent le rôle de prestataire de service nous a permis de conclure que les délais d'installation et de démantèlement de capacité affectent de manière significative la performance et les décisions des sujets. En particulier, les décisions du prestataire, sont influencées par ses commandes en carnet, sa capacité de service actuellement disponible et les décisions d'ajustement de capacité qu'il a prises, mais pas encore implémentées. - Queuing is a fact of life that we witness daily. We all have had the experience of waiting in line for some reason and we also know that it is an annoying situation. As the adage says "time is money"; this is perhaps the best way of stating what queuing problems mean for customers. Human beings are not very tolerant, but they are even less so when having to wait in line for service. Banks, roads, post offices and restaurants are just some examples where people must wait for service. Studies of queuing phenomena have typically addressed the optimisation of performance measures (e.g. average waiting time, queue length and server utilisation rates) and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. The individual behaviour of the agents involved in queueing systems and their decision making process have received little attention. Although this work has been useful to improve the efficiency of many queueing systems, or to design new processes in social and physical systems, it has only provided us with a limited ability to explain the behaviour observed in many real queues. In this dissertation we differ from this traditional research by analysing how the agents involved in the system make decisions instead of focusing on optimising performance measures or analysing an equilibrium solution. This dissertation builds on and extends the framework proposed by van Ackere and Larsen (2004) and van Ackere et al. (2010). We focus on studying behavioural aspects in queueing systems and incorporate this still underdeveloped framework into the operations management field. In the first chapter of this thesis we provide a general introduction to the area, as well as an overview of the results. In Chapters 2 and 3, we use Cellular Automata (CA) to model service systems where captive interacting customers must decide each period which facility to join for service. They base this decision on their expectations of sojourn times. Each period, customers use new information (their most recent experience and that of their best performing neighbour) to form expectations of sojourn time at the different facilities. Customers update their expectations using an adaptive expectations process to combine their memory and their new information. We label "conservative" those customers who give more weight to their memory than to the xiv Summary new information. In contrast, when they give more weight to new information, we call them "reactive". In Chapter 2, we consider customers with different degree of risk-aversion who take into account uncertainty. They choose which facility to join based on an estimated upper-bound of the sojourn time which they compute using their perceptions of the average sojourn time and the level of uncertainty. We assume the same exogenous service capacity for all facilities, which remains constant throughout. We first analyse the collective behaviour generated by the customers' decisions. We show that the system achieves low weighted average sojourn times when the collective behaviour results in neighbourhoods of customers loyal to a facility and the customers are approximately equally split among all facilities. The lowest weighted average sojourn time is achieved when exactly the same number of customers patronises each facility, implying that they do not wish to switch facility. In this case, the system has achieved the Nash equilibrium. We show that there is a non-monotonic relationship between the degree of risk-aversion and system performance. Customers with an intermediate degree of riskaversion typically achieve higher sojourn times; in particular they rarely achieve the Nash equilibrium. Risk-neutral customers have the highest probability of achieving the Nash Equilibrium. Chapter 3 considers a service system similar to the previous one but with risk-neutral customers, and relaxes the assumption of exogenous service rates. In this sense, we model a queueing system with endogenous service rates by enabling managers to adjust the service capacity of the facilities. We assume that managers do so based on their perceptions of the arrival rates and use the same principle of adaptive expectations to model these perceptions. We consider service systems in which the managers' decisions take time to be implemented. Managers are characterised by a profile which is determined by the speed at which they update their perceptions, the speed at which they take decisions, and how coherent they are when accounting for their previous decisions still to be implemented when taking their next decision. We find that the managers' decisions exhibit a strong path-dependence: owing to the initial conditions of the model, the facilities of managers with identical profiles can evolve completely differently. In some cases the system becomes "locked-in" into a monopoly or duopoly situation. The competition between managers causes the weighted average sojourn time of the system to converge to the exogenous benchmark value which they use to estimate their desired capacity. Concerning the managers' profile, we found that the more conservative Summary xv a manager is regarding new information, the larger the market share his facility achieves. Additionally, the faster he takes decisions, the higher the probability that he achieves a monopoly position. In Chapter 4 we consider a one-server queueing system with non-captive customers. We carry out an experiment aimed at analysing the way human subjects, taking on the role of the manager, take decisions in a laboratory regarding the capacity of a service facility. We adapt the model proposed by van Ackere et al (2010). This model relaxes the assumption of a captive market and allows current customers to decide whether or not to use the facility. Additionally the facility also has potential customers who currently do not patronise it, but might consider doing so in the future. We identify three groups of subjects whose decisions cause similar behavioural patterns. These groups are labelled: gradual investors, lumpy investors, and random investor. Using an autocorrelation analysis of the subjects' decisions, we illustrate that these decisions are positively correlated to the decisions taken one period early. Subsequently we formulate a heuristic to model the decision rule considered by subjects in the laboratory. We found that this decision rule fits very well for those subjects who gradually adjust capacity, but it does not capture the behaviour of the subjects of the other two groups. In Chapter 5 we summarise the results and provide suggestions for further work. Our main contribution is the use of simulation and experimental methodologies to explain the collective behaviour generated by customers' and managers' decisions in queueing systems as well as the analysis of the individual behaviour of these agents. In this way, we differ from the typical literature related to queueing systems which focuses on optimising performance measures and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. Our work can be seen as a first step towards understanding the interaction between customer behaviour and the capacity adjustment process in queueing systems. This framework is still in its early stages and accordingly there is a large potential for further work that spans several research topics. Interesting extensions to this work include incorporating other characteristics of queueing systems which affect the customers' experience (e.g. balking, reneging and jockeying); providing customers and managers with additional information to take their decisions (e.g. service price, quality, customers' profile); analysing different decision rules and studying other characteristics which determine the profile of customers and managers.

Minerais, métaux, isotopes : recherches archéométriques sur les mines de plomb et d'argent en Valais, Suisse

RESUME Les nombreuses mines de plomb et d'argent du Valais témoignent d'une activité minière importante par le passé, sans toutefois dévoiler ni l'importance des minéralisations, ni l'ancienneté de l'exploitation. La présente recherche a pour but de comprendre pourquoi les grandes mines sont concentrées dans une région, et de déterminer la chronologie de leur exploitation. L'originalité de ce travail réside dans son interdisciplinarité, plus précisément dans l'application des méthodes minéralogiques pour résoudre une problématique historique. Afin d'évaluer les ressources minières en plomb et en argent du Valais, 57 mines et indices ont été repérés et échantillonnés. Les signatures isotopiques du Pb (74 analyses) et les compositions chimiques élémentaires (45 analyses) ont été déterminées. Les plus grandes exploitations se situent dans la nappe de Siviez-Mischabel, au Sud d'une ligne Vallée du Rhône / Val de Bagnes ainsi que dans le Lötschental. Elles sont liées, d'après leur signature isotopique de plomb, à des minéralisations d'âge calédonien (408 à 387 Ma) ou tardi-hercynien (333 à 286 Ma). À ces périodes, l'ancien continent est très lourd et subit une subsidence thermique. Des premières fractures d'extrême importance se forment. Comme il s'agit d'accidents tectoniques majeurs, des gisements de grande extension peuvent se former dans ce contexte. D'autres minéralisations se situent dans les domaines helvétiques (Massif des Aiguilles Rouges, Massif du Mont Blanc et couverture sédimentaire), couvrant une région au Nord de la Vallée du Rhône et du Val d'Entremont. D'âge post-hercynien à tardi-alpin (notons qu'il n'y a pas de minéralisations d'âge tertiaire), elles sont pour la plupart liées à des intrusions granitiques, sources de plomb juvénile. Les mines situées dans ces unités tectoniques sont nettement moins étendues que celles de la nappe de Siviez-Mischabel, ce qui permet de penser que les minéralisations correspondantes le sont également. Les périodes d'exploitation des mines peuvent être déterminées par quatre approches différentes l'archéologie minière, la lecture des textes historiques, l'étude des déchets métallurgiques et la comparaison de la signature isotopique du plomb, que l'on mesure dans un objet archéologique bien daté (monnaie, bijoux etc.), avec celles des minerais. Cette dernière méthode a été appliquée et développée dans le cadre de la présente recherche. Pour ce faire, 221 échantillons d'objet en plomb ou en argent datés entre l'Âge du Fer et le Moyen Age ont été analysés par la méthode des isotopes de plomb et comparés à environ 1800 signatures isotopiques de minerais des gisements les plus importants en Suisse et en Europe. Avant l'époque romaine et jusqu'au 1 er siècle de cette époque, le plomb provient principalement des mines de la péninsule ibérique alors en pleine activité. Un apport des mines d'Europe tempérée, notamment des Vosges, reste à confirmer. A partir du 1" siècle de notre ère, le plomb a principalement été importé en Suisse occidentale de grands centres de productions situées en Allemagne du Nord (région d'Eifel). Les mines de plomb valaisannes, notamment celles de Siviez, débutent leur exploitation en même temps, principalement pour couvrir les besoins locaux, mais également pour l'exportation jusque dans l'arc lémanique et, dans une moindre importance, au-delà. À partir du 4ème siècle, le besoin en plomb a été couvert par un apport des mines locales et par la refonte d'objets anciens. Ce changement d'approvisionnement est probablement lié aux tensions créées par les invasions germaniques durant la seconde moitié du 3' siècle ; le marché suisse n'est dès lors plus approvisionné par le nord, c'est-à-dire par la vallée du Rhin. Quant à l'argent, l'exploitation de ce métal est attestée à partir de la fin du La Tène, peu après l'apparition de ce métal dans la région valaisanne. L'échantillonnage ne couvrant pas l'époque romaine, rien n'est connu pour cette période. A partir du 5" siècle, une exploitation d'argent est de nouveau attestée. Cependant, l'exploitation d'argent des mines locales ne gagne en importance qu'à partir du Moyen Âge avec les frappes monétaires, notamment les frappes carolingiennes et épiscopales valaisannes. Les sources d'argent sont différentes selon leur utilisation : à part quelques exceptions notamment vers la fin du La Tène et au tardo-antique, les bijoux et objets de cultes ont été souvent créés à partir d'argent refondu, contrairement aux monnaies pour lesquelles l'argent provient des mines locales. On note un approvisionnement différent de ce métal pour les objets, notamment les monnaies, selon leur lieu de fabrication : on peut clairement distinguer les objets valaisans de ceux du Plateau Suisse. SUMMARY The many lead and silver mines of the Valais testify of an important mining activity in the past, without however revealing neither the importance of the mineralizations, nor the era of the exploitation. The purpose of this research is to understand why the large mines are concentrated in one region, and to determine the history of their exploitation. The uniqueness of this work lies in its interdisciplinarity, more precisely in the application of mineralogical methods to solve historical problems. In order to evaluate the lead and silver mining resources of the Valais region, 57 mines and ore deposits were located and sampled. The isotope signatures of Pb (74 analyses) and the compositions of the chemical elements (45 analyses) were determined. The largest activities are in the Siviez-Mischabel area, located in the South of the boundary formed by the Rhone, Bagnes and Lotschental valleys. According to their lead isotope signatures, they are linked to mineralizations of the Caledonian (408 to 387 my) or tardi-Hercynian (333 to 286 my) orogenies. In those times, the old continent was very heavy and underwent a thermal subsidence. First fractures of great significance were formed. Through these major tectonic events, large extended ore deposits can be formed. Other mineralizations are found in the helvetic regions situated north of the Rhone and the Entremont valley (the Aiguilles Rouges basement, Mount Blanc basement and the covering sediment). Because they are from post-hercynien to tardi-alpine age (there are no mineralizations of tertiary age), they are mainly linked to granite intrusions, the sources of juvenile lead. The mines found in these tectonic units are significantly less extensive than those of the Siviez-Mischabel area, leading to the assumption that the respective mineralizations extend accordingly. The history of exploitation of the mines can be determined by four different sources: mining archaeology, historical texts, metallurgical waste, and the comparison of the isotope signature of the lead from accurately dated archaeological objects (currency, jewels etc), with those of the ores. This last approach was applied and developed within the framework of this research. The lead isotope signatures of 221 lead or silver objects from the Iron Age to the Middle Age were compared with approximately 1800 samples of ore of the most important ore deposits in Switzerland and Europe. Before the Roman time up to the 1st century, lead comes mainly from the mines of the Iberian Peninsula then in full activity. A contribution of the mines of Central Europe, in particular of the Vosges, remains to be confirmed. From the 1st century on, lead was mainly imported into Western Switzerland from Northern Germany (Eiffel region). The lead mines in the Valais region, in particular those of Siviez, begin their exploitation at the same time, mainly to meet the local needs, but also for export to the lemanic basin and of lesser importance, beyond. As from the 4th century, the need of lead was met by the production from local mines and the recycling of old objects. This change of supply is probably related to the tensions created by the Germanic invasions during second half of the 3rd century; as a consequence, the Swiss market is not supplied any more by the north, i.e. the Rhine valley. Silver production is confirmed starting from the end of La Tene, shortly after the appearance of this metal in the Valais region. Since no objects of Roman origin were analyzed, nothing is known for this period. From the 5th century on, silver production is again confirmed. However, significant silver production from local mines starts only in the Middle Age with the coinage, in particular Carolingian and Episcopal minting from the Valais region. The sources of silver differ according to their use: besides some exceptions in particular towards the end of La Tene and the tardi-Roman, the jewels and objects of worships were often created from recycled silver, contrary to the coins the silver for which comes from the local mines. A different source of silver is observed according to the location of coin manufacture: Objects originating from the Valais region are clearly distinguished from those from the Plateau Suisse. ZUSAMMENFASSUNG Die grosse Zahl von Blei- und Silberminen im Wallis ist Zeugnis einer bedeutenden Bergbautätigkeit, es fehlen aber Hinweise über ihren Umfang und den Zeitraum ihrer Ausbeutung. Die vorliegende Arbeit sucht zu ergründen, warum grosse Minen sich in einer eng begrenzten Region häufen und in welchem Zeitraum sie genutzt wurden. Die Besonderheit der Studie liegt in ihrer Interdisziplinarität, genauer in der Anwendung von mineralogischen Methoden zur Beantwortung historischer Fragestellungen. Zur Beurteilung der Lagerstätten wurden von 57 Minen und Aufschlüssen Proben entnommen oder Nachweise erbracht und mittels 74 Isotopen-Analysen von Blei und 45 chemischen Gesamtanalysen ausgewertet. Die wichtigsten Vorkommen liegen in der Siviez- Mischabel- Decke südlich der Linie Rhonetal- Val de Bagnes, sowie im Lötschental. Die Bleiisotopen- Alter weisen ihre Entstehung der kaledonischen (408 - 387 Mio. J.) oder der spät- herzynischen (333 - 286 Mio. J.) Gebirgsbildungsphase zu. In dieser Periode ist die kompakte Landmasse sehr schwer und erfairt eine thermische Absenkung. Es bilden sich tektonische Brüche von kontinentaler Ausdehnung. Die grossen tektonischen Bewegungen ermöglichen die Bildung von ausgedehnten Lagerstätten. Andere Vorkommen finden sich im Bereich der Helvetischen Alpen (Aiguilles Rouges Massiv, Mont-Blanc-Massiv und Sediment-Decken) im Gebiet nördlich des Rhonetales bis zum Val d'Entremont. Altersmässig sind sie der nach-hercynischen bis zur spät-alpidischen Orogenese zuzuweisen (auffällig ist das Fehlen von Vorkommen im Tertiär) und haben sich meist in der Folge von Granit- Intrusion, dem Ursprung von primärem Blei ausgebildet. Die Bergwerke in diesem Bereich sind deutlich weniger ausgedehnt als jene in der Siviez-Mischabel-Decke und entsprechen wahrscheinlich dem geringen Umfang der zugehörigen Vorkommen. Die Nutzungsperioden der Minen können mit vier verschiedenen Methoden bestimmt werden: Minenarchäologie, Historische Quellen, Auswertung von metallischen Abfällen (Schlacken) und Vergleich der Bleiisotopen-Zusammensetzung von Erzen mit jener von zeitlich gut datierbaren archäologischen Gegenständen (Münzen, Schmuckstücke). Die letztere Methode wurde im Rahmen der vorliegenden Forschungsarbeit entwickelt und angewendet. Zu diesem Zweck wurden an 221 Proben von Blei- oder Silberobjekten, die in die Periode zwischen Eisenzeit und Mittelalter eingestuft werden können, Bleiisotopen- Analysen durchgeführt und mit ca. 1800 Proben aus den wichtigsten Lagerstätten der Schweiz und Europas verglichen. Vor der Römerzeit und bis ins 1. Jahrh. stammt das Blei vornehmlich aus den in jener Zeit in voller Ausbeutung begriffenen Minen der Iberischen Halbinsel. Der Beitrag von Mitteleuropa, besonders der Vogesen, muss noch bestätigt werden. Ab dem 1. Jahrh. nach Chr. wurde die Westschweiz hauptschlich mit Blei aus den grossen Produktionszentren Norddeutschlands, vorwiegend der Eifel, versorgt. In dieser Periode setzt die Ausbeutung der Bleiminen des Wallis, besonders von Siviez, ein. Sie dienen der Deckung des örtlichen Bedarfs aber auch der Ausfuhr in das Gebiet des Genfersees und in einem bescheidenen Rahmen sogar darüber hinaus. Ab dem 4. Jahrhundert wurden vermehrt alte Objekte eingeschmolzen. Dieser Wechsel der Versorgungsquellen war vermutlich eine Folge der Wölkerwanderung in der zweiten Hälfte des 3. Jahrhunderts. Ab diesem Zeitpunkt war Helvetien der Zugang zu den Versorgungsquellen des Nordens, besonders des Rheinlandes, verwehrt. Der Abbau von Silber ist ab dem Ende des La Tène nachgewiesen, nur wenig nach dem Auftreten dieses Metalls im Wallis. Über die Römerzeit können wegen dem Fehlen entsprechender Proben keine Aussagen gemacht werden. Eine erneute Abbauperiode ist ab dem 5. Jahrhundert nachgewiesen. Die Produktion der örtlichen Minen erreicht aber erst im Mittelalter eine gewisse Bedeutung mit der Prägung von Mnzen durch die Karolinger und die Walliser Bischöfe. Die Herkunft des Silbers ist abhängig von dessen Verwendung. Mit wenigen Ausnahmen in der Zeit des La Tène und der späteren Römerzeit wurde für Kunst- und Kult- Gegenstände rezykliertes Silber verwendet, für Münzprägungen neues Silber aus den örtlichen Minen. Von Einfluss auf die Herkunft war auch der Produktionsstandort: Die Objekte aus dem Wallis unterscheiden sich deutlich von jenen des Mittellandes.

Fingerprint identification: advances since the 2009 National Research Council report

"This paper will discuss the major developments in the area of fingerprint" "identification that followed the publication of the National Research Council (NRC, of the US National Academies of Sciences) report in 2009 entitled: Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States: A Path Forward. The report portrayed an image of a field of expertise used for decades without the necessary scientific research-based underpinning. The advances since the report and the needs in selected areas of fingerprinting will be detailed. It includes the measurement of the accuracy, reliability, repeatability and reproducibility of the conclusions offered by fingerprint experts. The paper will also pay attention to the development of statistical models allow- ing assessment of fingerprint comparisons. As a corollary of these developments, the next challenge is to reconcile a traditional practice domi- nated by deterministic conclusions with the probabilistic logic of any statistical model. There is a call for greater candour and fingerprint experts will need to communicate differently on the strengths and limitations of their findings. Their testimony will have to go beyond the blunt assertion" "of the uniqueness of fingerprints or the opinion delivered ispe dixit."

Counter-propagating dual-trap optical tweezers based on linear momentum conservation

We present a dual-trap optical tweezers setup which directly measures forces using linear momentum conservation. The setup uses a counter-propagating geometry, which allows momentum measurement on each beam separately. The experimental advantages of this setup include low drift due to all-optical manipulation, and a robust calibration (independent of the features of the trapped object or buffer medium) due to the force measurement method. Although this design does not attain the high-resolution of some co-propagating setups, we show that it can be used to perform different single molecule measurements: fluctuation-based molecular stiffness characterization at different forces and hopping experiments on molecular hairpins. Remarkably, in our setup it is possible to manipulate very short tethers (such as molecular hairpins with short handles) down to the limit where beads are almost in contact. The setup is used to illustrate a novel method for measuring the stiffness of optical traps and tethers on the basis of equilibrium force fluctuations, i.e., without the need of measuring the force vs molecular extension curve. This method is of general interest for dual trap optical tweezers setups and can be extended to setups which do not directly measure forces.

Fiscal sustainability and fiscal shocks in a dollarized and oil-exporting country: Ecuador

This paper investigates the fiscal sustainability of an emerging, dollarized, oil-exporting country: Ecuador. A cointegrated VAR approach is adopted in testing, first, if the intertemporal budget constraint is satisfied in Ecuador and, second, in identifying the permanent and transitory shocks that affect a fiscal policy characterized by inertia and a heavy dependence on oil revenues. Following confirmation that the debt-GDP ratio does not place the Ecuadorian budget under any pressure, we reformulate the model and identify two forces that push the fiscal system out of equilibrium, namely, economic activity and oil revenues implemented in the government budget. We argue that Ecuador needs to recover control of its monetary policy and to promote the diversification of its economy in order that non-oil tax revenues can replace oil revenues as a pushing force. Finally, we calculate quarterly elasticities of tax revenues with respect to Ecuador’s GDP and that of eight Eurozone countries. We illustrate graphically how the Eurozone countries with low positive or high negative elasticities’ levels suffer debt problems after the crisis. This finding emphasizes the pressing need for Ecuador to strengthen the connection between its tax revenues and output, and also suggests that the convergence of these elasticities in the Eurozone might contribute to the success of an eventually future fiscal union.