O Risco Percebido e Coberto pelas Seguradoras

Os Portugueses desde imemoráveis tempos gostam de partir à descoberta de mundos novos, fazemo-lo pelas mais variadas razões, no entanto, neste trabalho iremos apenas analisar os riscos associados ao turismo de lazer. Os atentados de Nova Iorque em 11 Setembro 2001, Síndrome Respiratório Grave em HongKong em Fevereiro de 2003, o Tsunami no oceano Indico em Dezembro 2004, a erupção vulcânica na Islândia em Abril de 2010 ou os atentados de Paris em 13 de Novembro 2015, estas datas ficaram marcadas para sempre, lemos e relemos inúmeros depoimentos de pessoas que se encontravam de férias nestas cidades e pensamos e se fossemos nós? Os primeiros registos da atividade seguradora datam do ano 5.000 A.C. inicialmente seguravam transportes de mercadorias, hoje em dia podem cobrir “qualquer coisa”. Com a perceção dos riscos que hoje em dia podem ocorrer numa viagem, será que as Seguradoras estão preparadas para minimizar os mesmos? E qual a perceção dos riscos para quem viaja. Para o efeito realizou-se um estudo exploratório por suporte a uma amostra de conveniência que reuniu 152 observações. Análises descritivas e testes não paramétricos foram aplicados para definir quais os riscos mais percebidos e quais os que os turistas portugueses pretendem ver cobertos. Concluiu-se que as pessoas que dão maior importância aos Risco de Saúde e Financeiro são os que efetuam seguros de viagem, já as que dão maior importância aos Risco Equipamento, Risco Politico, Risco Psicológico e Risco de Satisfação são as que optam por não fazer seguro.

Impiego del GNSS per il monitoraggio in aree sismiche

In questo elaborato si tratterà il metodo di analisi e modellazione post-sismica del terreno attraverso l’utilizzo dei dati GPS e dati SAR. Si prenderanno in esame due eventi sismici: il grande terremoto di Tohoku in Giappone del marzo 2011, con particolare attenzione alla conseguente formazione di un grande tsunami, e la sequenza sismica umbro-marchigiana del settembre/ottobre 1997. In tale contesto verranno descritti i diversi strumenti di monitoraggio e i modelli delle sorgenti sismiche, i quali hanno il compito di determinare importanti informazioni per la più rapida valutazione possibile del rischio sismico e per la corretta pianificazione delle attività umane e del territorio. Obiettivo della tesi è descrivere l’efficacia dell’utilizzo congiunto della tecnica di monitoraggio GPS e l’Interferometria Differenziale SAR. Grazie all’analisi ed alla conseguente modellazione dei dati raccolti nei due eventi sismici descritti in questo lavoro si dimostra l’importanza di tali tecniche per comprendere al meglio i fenomeni sismici. Nel primo capitolo verranno descritte le tecniche di monitoraggio GPS e SAR e le successive tecniche di analisi e modellazione dei dati al fine di avere una previsione dell’evento preso in considerazione. Nel secondo capitolo si esamineranno le peculiarità dell’evento sismico giapponese (2011) e delle elaborazioni condotte per caratterizzare lo tsunami provocato dalla rottura del fondale oceanico. Nel terzo capitolo si analizzerà la sequenza sismica umbro-marchigiana del 1997 prestando attenzione allo sviluppo della rete geodetica del territorio nazionale italiano con riferimenti allo sviluppo della Rete Integrata Nazionale GPS (RING). Nel quarto capitolo verrà descritto in modo introduttivo la struttura del software Bernese GNSS v. 5.2; un software di elaborazione dati usato in ambito scientifico per l’analisi di reti GNSS per il controllo delle deformazioni.

Paleontological and sedimentological investigations of a sediment profile from northeast Greenland

The Kap Mackenzie area on the outer coast of northeast Greenland was glaciated during the last glacial stage, and pre-Holocene shell material was brought to the area. Dating of marine shells indicates that deglaciation occurred in the earliest Holocene, before 10 800 cal. a BP. The marine limit is around 53 m a.s.l. In the wake of the deglaciation, a glaciomarine fauna characterized the area, but after c. one millennium a more species-rich marine fauna took over. This fauna included Mytilus edulis and Mysella sovaliki, which do not live in the region at present; the latter is new to the Holocene fauna of northeast Greenland. The oldest M. edulis sample is dated to c. 9500 cal. a BP, which is the earliest date for the species from the region and indicates that the Holocene thermal maximum began earlier in the region than previously documented. This is supported by driftwood dated to c. 9650 cal. a BP, which is the earliest driftwood date so far from northeastern Greenland and implies that the coastal area was at least partly free of sea ice in summer. As indicated by former studies, the Storegga tsunami hit the Kap Mackenzie area at c. 8100 cal. a BP. Loon Lake, at 18 m a.s.l., was isolated from the sea at c. 6200 cal. a BP, which is distinctly later than expected from existing relative sea-level curves for the region.

Foreign operations, export financing, and related programs appropriations for 2006 : hearings before a Subcommittee of the Committee on Appropriations, House of Representatives, One Hundred Ninth Congress, first session /

Shipping list no.: 2005-0187-P (pt. 1A), 2005-0195-P (pt. 1B), 2005-0178-P (pts. 2-3), 2005-0204-P (pt. 4), 2006-0101-P (pt. 5).

Relocation and Resilience: Exploring Co-Benefits in Aberdeen, WA

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

The mirror-ball effect: Investigating channels, messages and participation levels

Journalists have always used equipment which has been generally available in the communities in which they worked. This has been a result both of economy and necessity, since they found they had to connect with their audiences using means that were available to the audience, not just to the sender. Newspapers sold on street corners in the very early media days; SMS and email have become the rule for the early 21st century. This development also admits the possibility of the roles of the communication professional and the community merging during the “public journalism” process, and has become most recently evident in the areas around the Bay of Bengal, struck by the tsunami on December 26, 2004, especially in the Indonesian province of Banda Aceh, and in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, where tiny portable radios, featuring solar panels and hand-cranked dynamos, have suddenly become part of a vital news media channel. In this article participant-observation and personal interview techniques are used to record and compare many of the digital channels used by news and information senders up to 2005. It also investigates the level of genuine participation which these new technologies have brought to the communications process.

Logistical framework for last mile relief distribution in humanitarian supply chains:considerations from the field

Recent years large scale natural disasters: (e.g. 2004 Tsunami, 2005 Earthquake in South Asia, 2010 Earthquake in Haiti, 2010 flood in Pakistan, 2011 Earthquake in Japan etc.) have captured international attention and led to the advance of research of disaster management. To cope with these huge impact disasters, the involved stakeholders have to learn how quickly and efficiently the relief organisations are able to respond. After a disaster strikes, it is necessary to get the relief aid to the affected people by the prompt action of relief organisations. This supply chain process has to be very fast and efficient. The purpose of this paper is to define the last mile relief distribution in humanitarian supply chain and develop a logistical framework by identifying the factors that affect this process. Seventeen interviews were conducted with field officers and the data analysed to identify which are the critical factors for last mile relief distribution of disaster relief operation. A framework is presented classifying these factors according to the ability to implement them in an optimisation model of humanitarian logistics.

Online News Media Impact on Disaster Response: October 26, 2010 Indonesian Disaster Case Study

This paper reflects a research project on the influence of online news media (from print, radio, and televised outlets) on disaster response. Coverage on the October 2010 Indonesian tsunami and earthquake was gathered from 17 sources from October 26 through November 30. This data was analyzed quantitatively with respect to coverage intensity over time and among outlets. Qualitative analyses were also conducted using keywords and value scale that assessed the degree of positivity or negativity associated with that keyword in the context of accountability. Results yielded insights into the influence of online media on actors' assumption of accountability and quality of response. It also provided information as to the optimal time window in which advocates and disaster management specialists can best present recommendations to improve policy and raise awareness. Coverage of outlets was analyzed individually, in groups, and as a whole, in order to discern behavior patterns for a better understanding of media interdependency. This project produced analytical insights but is primarily intended as a prototype for more refined and extensive research.

Trastorno de estrés postraumático y crecimiento postraumático en niños y adolescentes afectados por el terremoto del año 2016 en Chile

Se estima que los niños y adolescentes se encuentran entre las personas más vulnerables a los efectos negativos de los desastres naturales. Los estudios de seguimiento de cohortes muestran que entre el 25% y el 60% de los niños ha sufrido un evento traumático significativo antes de llegar a la adultez. Siendo una de las mayores consecuencias, la sintomatología de Trastorno de Estrés postraumático (TEPT), (Osofsky et al., 2009; Yelland et al., 2010). Otra de las respuestas que puede surgir frente a la adversidad, es el Crecimiento Postraumático (CPT), el cual alude a un cambio positivo como resultado de un proceso de lucha a partir de un suceso traumático (Calhoun & Tedeschi, 1999; Cryder et al., 2006; Kilmer, 2009). Este estudio examina la sintomatología de Trastorno de Estrés Postraumático y Crecimiento Postraumático en niños y adolescentes expuestos a un terremoto (uno de los diez más grandes del mundo) y tsunami ocurrido en Chile el año 2010, respecto a un grupo de comparación, 12 meses y 24 meses después del desastre...

Soundscape Ecology of Hawaiian Spinner Dolphin Resting Bays

Sound is a key sensory modality for Hawaiian spinner dolphins. Like many other marine animals, these dolphins rely on sound and their acoustic environment for many aspects of their daily lives, making it is essential to understand soundscape in areas that are critical to their survival. Hawaiian spinner dolphins rest during the day in shallow coastal areas and forage offshore at night. In my dissertation I focus on the soundscape of the bays where Hawaiian spinner dolphins rest taking a soundscape ecology approach. I primarily relied on passive acoustic monitoring using four DSG-Ocean acoustic loggers in four Hawaiian spinner dolphin resting bays on the Kona Coast of Hawai‛i Island. 30-second recordings were made every four minutes in each of the bays for 20 to 27 months between January 8, 2011 and March 30, 2013. I also utilized concomitant vessel-based visual surveys in the four bays to provide context for these recordings. In my first chapter I used the contributions of the dolphins to the soundscape to monitor presence in the bays and found the degree of presence varied greatly from less than 40% to nearly 90% of days monitored with dolphins present. Having established these bays as important to the animals, in my second chapter I explored the many components of their resting bay soundscape and evaluated the influence of natural and human events on the soundscape. I characterized the overall soundscape in each of the four bays, used the tsunami event of March 2011 to approximate a natural soundscape and identified all loud daytime outliers. Overall, sound levels were consistently louder at night and quieter during the daytime due to the sounds from snapping shrimp. In fact, peak Hawaiian spinner dolphin resting time co-occurs with the quietest part of the day. However, I also found that humans drastically alter this daytime soundscape with sound from offshore aquaculture, vessel sound and military mid-frequency active sonar. During one recorded mid-frequency active sonar event in August 2011, sound pressure levels in the 3.15 kHz 1/3rd-octave band were as high as 45.8 dB above median ambient noise levels. Human activity both inside (vessels) and outside (sonar and aquaculture) the bays significantly altered the resting bay soundscape. Inside the bays there are high levels of human activity including vessel-based tourism directly targeting the dolphins. The interactions between humans and dolphins in their resting bays are of concern; therefore, my third chapter aimed to assess the acoustic response of the dolphins to human activity. Using days where acoustic recordings overlapped with visual surveys I found the greatest response in a bay with dolphin-centric activities, not in the bay with the most vessel activity, indicating that it is not the magnitude that elicits a response but the focus of the activity. In my fourth chapter I summarize the key results from my first three chapters to illustrate the power of multiple site design to prioritize action to protect Hawaiian spinner dolphins in their resting bays, a chapter I hope will be useful for managers should they take further action to protect the dolphins.

A Study of How Economic Attitudes Are Shaped by Environmental Shocks and Life Experiences

Social attitudes, attitudes toward financial risk and attitudes toward deferred gratification are thought to influence many important economic decisions over the life-course. In economic theory, these attitudes are key components in diverse models of behavior, including collective action, saving and investment decisions and occupational choice. The relevance of these attitudes have been confirmed empirically. Yet, the factors that influence them are not well understood. This research evaluates how these attitudes are affected by large disruptive events, namely, a natural disaster and a civil conflict, and also by an individual-specific life event, namely, having children.

By implementing rigorous empirical strategies drawing on rich longitudinal datasets, this research project advances our understanding of how life experiences shape these attitudes. Moreover, compelling evidence is provided that the observed changes in attitudes are likely to reflect changes in preferences given that they are not driven just by changes in financial circumstances. Therefore the findings of this research project also contribute to the discussion of whether preferences are really fixed, a usual assumption in economics.

In the first chapter, I study how altruistic and trusting attitudes are affected by exposure to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami as long as ten years after the disaster occurred. Establishing a causal relationship between natural disasters and attitudes presents several challenges as endogenous exposure and sample selection can confound the analysis. I take on these challenges by exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in exposure to the tsunami and by relying on a longitudinal dataset representative of the pre-tsunami population in two districts of Aceh, Indonesia. The sample is drawn from the Study of the Tsunami Aftermath and Recovery (STAR), a survey with data collected both before and after the disaster and especially designed to identify the impact of the tsunami. The altruistic and trusting attitudes of the respondents are measured by their behavior in the dictator and trust games. I find that witnessing closely the damage caused by the tsunami but without suffering severe economic damage oneself increases altruistic and trusting behavior, particularly towards individuals from tsunami affected communities. Having suffered severe economic damage has no impact on altruistic behavior but may have increased trusting behavior. These effects do not seem to be caused by the consequences of the tsunami on people’s financial situation. Instead they are consistent with how experiences of loss and solidarity may have shaped social attitudes by affecting empathy and perceptions of who is deserving of aid and trust.

In the second chapter, co-authored with Ryan Brown, Duncan Thomas and Andrea Velasquez, we investigate how attitudes toward financial risk are affected by elevated levels of insecurity and uncertainty brought on by the Mexican Drug War. To conduct our analysis, we pair the Mexican Family Life Survey (MxFLS), a rich longitudinal dataset ideally suited for our purposes, with a dataset on homicide rates at the month and municipality-level. The homicide rates capture well the overall crime environment created by the drug war. The MxFLS elicits risk attitudes by asking respondents to choose between hypothetical gambles with different payoffs. Our strategy to identify a causal effect has two key components. First, we implement an individual fixed effects strategy which allows us to control for all time-invariant heterogeneity. The remaining time variant heterogeneity is unlikely to be correlated with changes in the local crime environment given the well-documented political origins of the Mexican Drug War. We also show supporting evidence in this regard. The second component of our identification strategy is to use an intent-to-treat approach to shield our estimates from endogenous migration. Our findings indicate that exposure to greater local-area violent crime results in increased risk aversion. This effect is not driven by changes in financial circumstances, but may be explained instead by heightened fear of victimization. Nonetheless, we find that having greater economic resources mitigate the impact. This may be due to individuals with greater economic resources being able to avoid crime by affording better transportation or security at work.

The third chapter, co-authored with Duncan Thomas, evaluates whether attitudes toward deferred gratification change after having children. For this study we also exploit the MxFLS, which elicits attitudes toward deferred gratification (commonly known as time discounting) by asking individuals to choose between hypothetical payments at different points in time. We implement a difference-in-difference estimator to control for all time-invariant heterogeneity and show that our results are robust to the inclusion of time varying characteristics likely correlated with child birth. We find that becoming a mother increases time discounting especially in the first two years after childbirth and in particular for those women without a spouse at home. Having additional children does not have an effect and the effect for men seems to go in the opposite direction. These heterogeneous effects suggest that child rearing may affect time discounting due to generated stress or not fully anticipated spending needs.

(Table 1) Radiocarbon results from this study

The Indonesian Arc represents the subduction of the Indian-Australian plate beneath Asia. It has been the scene of catastrophic tectonic activity, including the recent 2004 M=9.1 Aceh earthquake and resulting Indian Ocean tsunami. We have dated planktonic forams associated with historic tephras (Tambora, 1815 and Krakatau, 1883) in marine sediment cores to determine radiocarbon reservoir ages for 2 locations along the arc. Our best estimates for 19th century regional reservoir corrections (DeltaR) are +90 ± 40 yr for surface-dwelling species and +220 ± 40 yr for mixed planktic assemblages containing some upper thermocline species, but scatter in the data suggests that past surface reservoir ages may have varied by about ±100 yr. We used the results of this study to investigate a proposed very large AD 535 eruption at or near Krakatau. We find no evidence for ash from such an eruption, and although this is negative evidence, we consider it sufficiently strong to rule out any possibility that one took place.