Fractional State Space Analysis of Temperature Time Series

Atmospheric temperatures characterize Earth as a slow dynamics spatiotemporal system, revealing long-memory and complex behavior. Temperature time series of 54 worldwide geographic locations are considered as representative of the Earth weather dynamics. These data are then interpreted as the time evolution of a set of state space variables describing a complex system. The data are analyzed by means of multidimensional scaling (MDS), and the fractional state space portrait (fSSP). A centennial perspective covering the period from 1910 to 2012 allows MDS to identify similarities among different Earth’s locations. The multivariate mutual information is proposed to determine the “optimal” order of the time derivative for the fSSP representation. The fSSP emerges as a valuable alternative for visualizing system dynamics.

Spatial and temporal analysis of recent drought using vegetation temperature condition index: case of Somali regional state of Ethiopia

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Prevalence of hepatitis C virus infection and HCV genotypes among hemophiliacs in the State of Bahia, Northeastern Brazil: analysis of serological and virological parameters

The objective of the present study was to analyze HCV serological and virological parameters from hemophiliacs in the State of Bahia. Anti-HCV was investigated by ELISA in a cohort of 268 hemophiliacs A/B who were followed-up in a reference unit for hemotherapy in the State of Bahia. HCV viremia and genotypes were also determined from a subset of 66 anti-HCV seropositive hemophiliacs. Seroprevalence among hemophiliacs was 42.2% (95% CI 36.5-48.1) and was significantly higher (p<0.05) according to age >10 years, presence of factor VIII/IX inhibitory antibodies and other infection markers. None of the hemophiliacs less than 5 years of age were anti-HCV seropositive. Viremia was detectable in 77.3% (51/66). HCV genotype 1 (74%) was the most prevalent followed by genotype 3 (22%) and genotype 2 (4%). Our results indicate that HCV prevalence is still high among hemophiliacs, although HCV transmission was not observed in young hemophiliacs.

Chagas disease in the State of Pernambuco, Brazil: analysis of admissions and mortality time series

INTRODUCTION: A time series study of admissions, deaths and acute cases was conducted in order to evaluate the context of Chagas disease in Pernambuco. METHODS: Data reported to the Information Technology Department of the Brazilian National Health Service between 1980 and 2008 was collected for regions and Federal Units of Brazil; and microregions and municipalities of Pernambuco. Rates (per 100,000 inhabitants) of hospitalization, mortality and acute cases were calculated using a national hospital database (SIH), a national mortality database (SIM) and the national Information System for Notifiable Diseases (SINAN), respectively. RESULTS: The national average for Chagas disease admissions was 0.99 from 1995 to 2008. Pernambuco obtained a mean of 0.39 in the same period, with the highest rates being concentrated in the interior of the state. The state obtained a mean mortality rate of 1.56 between 1980 and 2007, which was lower than the national average (3.66). The mortality rate has tended to decline nationally, while it has remained relatively unchanged in Pernambuco. Interpolating national rates of admissions and deaths, mortality rates were higher than hospitalization rates between 1995 and 2007. The same occurred in Pernambuco, except for 2003. Between 2001 and 2006, rates for acute cases were 0.56 and 0.21 for Brazil and Pernambuco, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Although a decrease in Chagas mortality has occurred in Brazil, the disease remains a serious public health problem, especially in the Northeast region. It is thus essential that medical care, prevention and control regarding Chagas disease be maintained and improved.

Restriction enzyme analysis of the human cytomegalovirus genome in specimens collected from immunodeficient patients in Belém, State of Pará, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Human cytomegalovirus is an opportunistic betaherpesvirus that causes persistent and serious infections in immunodeficient patients. Recurrent infections occur due to the presence of the virus in a latent state in some cell types. It is possible to examine the virus using molecular methods to aid in the immunological diagnosis and to generate a molecular viral profile in immunodeficient patients. The objective of this study was to characterize cytomegalovirus genotypes and to generate the epidemiological and molecular viral profile in immunodeficient patients. METHODS: A total of 105 samples were collected from immunodeficient patients from the City of Belém, including newborns, hemodialysis patients, transplant recipients and HIV+ patients. An IgG and IgM antibody study was completed using ELISA, and enzymatic analysis by restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) was performed to characterize viral genotypes. RESULTS: It was observed that 100% of the patients had IgG antibodies, 87% of which were IgG+/IgM-, consistent with a prior infection profile, 13% were IgG+/IgM+, suggestive of recent infection. The newborn group had the highest frequency (27%) of the IgG+/IgM+ profile. By RFLP analysis, only one genotype was observed, gB2, which corresponded to the standard AD169 strain. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of IgM antibodies in new borns indicates that HCMV continues to be an important cause of congenital infection. The low observed genotypic diversity could be attributed to the small sample size because newborns were excluded from the RFLP analysis. This study will be continued including samples from newborns to extend the knowledge of the general and molecular epidemiology of HCMV in immunodeficient patients.

Geographic analysis on the occurrence of human and canine leptospirosis in the city of Maringá, state of Paraná, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Leptospirosis is a zoonotic disease, the primary hosts of which are wild, synanthropic, and household animals. Humans behave as terminal and accidental hosts. The prevalence of leptospirosis depends on carrier animals that disseminate the agent, on the environmental survival of this agent, and on the contact of susceptible individuals. Each serovar has one or more hosts with different adaptation levels. The focuses of leptospirosis are infected, sick, and asymptomatic animals, which are considered to be sources of environmental infection. This study aimed to determine the risk areas for leptospiral infection in stray dogs and patients diagnosed with leptospirosis from 2006 to 2008 in Maringá, State of Paraná, Brazil. METHODS: Three hundred and thirty-five stray dogs and 25 patients were studied. Serum from both animals and patients was examined by the microscopic serum agglutination test to study anti-leptospiral antibodies. To determine the risk areas and the spatial distribution of the disease, thematic maps were designed. RESULTS: Forty-one (12.2%) dogs positive for one or more leptospire serovars were observed, the most frequent serovars being Pyrogenes (43.9%), Canícola (21.9%), and Copennhageni (19.5%). Among the humans, 2 (8%) were positive for serovars Pyrogenes and Hardjo Prajitno and for Pyrogenes and Cynopteri. CONCLUSIONS: Spatial analysis showed that the risk for dogs and humans in the City of Maringá to become infected with leptospires exists in both the central and the peripheral areas, a fact that reinforces the relevance of this study and of continuous epidemiological and environmental surveillance actions to control the disease in animals and in humans.

Analysis of sandflies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Barra do Garças, State of Mato Grosso, Brazil, and the influence of environmental variables on the vector density of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Lutz & Neiva, 1912)

INTRODUCTION: Leishmaniasis is an infectious and parasitic zoonotic, non-contagious, vector-borne disease caused by protozoa of the genus Leishmania. In Brazil, the major vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) infantum chagasi (Cunha & Chagas, 1934) is Lutzomyia longipalpis. Barra do Garças, State of Mato Grosso, was designated as a priority area by the Brazilian Ministry of Health for american visceral leishmaniasis, and it is important to identify the vector species present in this municipality. Our objective was to raise sandflies and study the influence of environmental variables on the vector density of Lutzomyia longipalpis. METHODS: We performed entomological monitoring in 3 districts using Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) light traps and recorded human cases of american visceral leishmaniasis in the city. We calculated the relative frequency and richness of sandflies and applied a transfer function model to the vector density correlate with relative humidity. RESULTS: The sandfly population was composed of 2 genera and 27 species, totaling 8,097 individuals. Monitoring identified Lutzomyia longipalpis (44%), followed by Lutzomyia lenti (18.9%), Lutzomyia whitmani (13.9%), Lutzomyia carmelinoi (9.1%), Lutzomyia evandroi (5.1%), Lutzomyia termitophila (3.3%), Lutzomyia sordellii (1.9%), and 20 other species (<4%). The male:female ratio was 3.5:1. We observed high species diversity (Dα = 6.65). Lutzomyia longipalpis showed occurrence peaks during the rainy season; there was a temporal correlation with humidity, but not with frequency or temperature. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of Lutzomyia longipalpis in the urban area of Barra do Garças underscores the changing disease profile, which was previously restricted to the wild environment.

Spatial analysis of new cases of leprosy in the State of Espírito Santo, Brazil, between 2004 and 2009

INTRODUCTION: Leprosy in Brazil is a public health issue, and there are many regions in the State of Espírito Santo with high endemic incidence levels of leprosy, characterizing this state as a priority for leprosy programs. The aim of this study was to determine the spatial distribution of coefficients of new cases of leprosy in the State of Espírito Santo, Brazil. METHODS: We conducted a descriptive and ecologic study based on the spatial distribution of leprosy in the State of Espírito Santo between 2004 and 2009. Data were gathered from the available records of the Espírito Santo State Health Secretary. The global and local Bayesian empirical methods were used to produce an estimate of leprosy risk, smoothing the fluctuation effects of the detection coefficients. RESULTS: The study resulted in a coefficient adjustment of new cases in 10 towns that changed their classification, among which, 2 went from low to medium, 4 from medium to high, 3 from high to very high, and 1 from very high to hyper-endemic. An average variation of 1.02, fluctuating between 0 and 12.39 cases/100,000 inhabitants, was found in a comparative calculation between the Local Ebest value and the average coefficient of new leprosy cases in the State of Espírito Santo. CONCLUSIONS: The spatial analysis of leprosy favors the establishment of control strategies with a better cost-benefit relationship since it reveals specific and priority regions, thereby enabling the development of actions that can interfere in the transmission chain.

Spatio-temporal patterns of tuberculosis incidence in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, and their relationship with social vulnerability: a Bayesian analysis

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this ecological study was to evaluate the urban spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis (TB) in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, between 2006 and 2009 and to evaluate its relationship with factors of social vulnerability such as income and education level. METHODS: We evaluated data from TBWeb, an electronic notification system for TB cases. Measures of social vulnerability were obtained from the SEADE Foundation, and information about the number of inhabitants, education and income of the households were obtained from Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Statistical analyses were conducted by a Bayesian regression model assuming a Poisson distribution for the observed new cases of TB in each area. A conditional autoregressive structure was used for the spatial covariance structure. RESULTS: The Bayesian model confirmed the spatial heterogeneity of TB distribution in Ribeirão Preto, identifying areas with elevated risk and the effects of social vulnerability on the disease. We demonstrated that the rate of TB was correlated with the measures of income, education and social vulnerability. However, we observed areas with low vulnerability and high education and income, but with high estimated TB rates. CONCLUSIONS: The study identified areas with different risks for TB, given that the public health system deals with the characteristics of each region individually and prioritizes those that present a higher propensity to risk of TB. Complex relationships may exist between TB incidence and a wide range of environmental and intrinsic factors, which need to be studied in future research.

Historical analysis of the records of sylvan yellow fever in the State of Amazonas, Brazil, from 1996 to 2009

IntroductionYellow fever is a non-contagious infectious disease, highly lethal, transmitted by the Aedes, Haemagogus and Sabethes.MethodsDescriptive retrospective study of the yellow fever cases in Amazonas, between 1996 and 2009.ResultsForty two cases of yellow fever were confirmed, with 30 deaths, 10% of which were foreigners.ConclusionsThe presence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in both rural Amazonas and its capital demonstrates the dispersion of these vectors and underscores the need for better and continuous epidemiological and entomological control.

An analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution of American cutaneous leishmaniasis in counties located along road and railway corridors in the State of Maranhao, Brazil

Introduction The incidence of American cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) is increasing in Latin America, especially in Brazil, where 256,587 cases were confirmed in the last decade. Methods This study used a Bayesian model to examine the spatial and temporal distribution of ACL cases between 2000 and 2009 in 61 counties of State of Maranhão located along the three main road and railway corridors. Results During the study period, 13,818 cases of ACL were recorded. There was a significant decrease in the incidence of ACL in the ten study years. The recorded incidence rate ranged from 7.36 to 241.45 per 100,000 inhabitants. The relative risk increased in 77% of the counties, decreased in 18% and was maintained in only five counties. Conclusions Although there was a decreased incidence of the disease, ACL was present in all of the examined municipalities, thus maintaining the risk of contracting this illness.

Analysis of the detection coefficient for the association between leprosy and pregnancy in the integration region of Carajas, State of Para, Brazil

Introduction The association between leprosy and pregnancy is currently poorly understood and has been linked to serious clinical consequences. Methods A retrospective study between 2007 and 2009 was performed in the integration region of Carajás, Brazil on a population of pregnant lepers, with non-lepers of ages 12-49 years serving as the reference population. Results Twenty-nine pregnant lepers were studied during the study period. The detection rates (DRs) for the studied association were 4.7 in 2007, 9.4 in 2008, and 4.3 in 2009. Conclusions The Carajás region presented a medium pattern of endemicity during most of the study period, with a high DR found in 2008.

Temporal, spatial and spatiotemporal analysis of the occurrence of visceral leishmaniasis in humans in the City of Birigui, State of São Paulo, from 1999 to 2012

Introduction In 1999, Birigui and Araçatuba were the first municipalities in the State of São Paulo to present autochthonous cases of visceral leishmaniasis in humans (VLH). The aim of this study was to describe the temporal, spatial and spatiotemporal behaviors of VLH in Birigui. Methods Secondary data were obtained from the Notifiable Diseases Information System from 1999 to 2012. The incidence, mortality and case fatality rates by sex and age were calculated. The cases of VLH were geocoded and grouped according to census tracts. Local empirical Bayesian incidence rates were calculated. The existence of spatial and spatiotemporal clusters was investigated using SaTScan software. Results There were 156 confirmed cases of autochthonous VLH. The incidence rate was higher in the 0-4-year-old children, and the mortality and case fatality rates were higher in people aged 60 years and older. The peaks of incidence occurred in 2006 and 2011. The Bayesian rates identified the presence of VLH in all of the census tracts in the municipality; however, spatial and spatiotemporal clusters were found in the central area of the municipality. Conclusions Birigui, located in the Araçatuba region, has recently experienced increasing numbers of VLH cases; this increase is contrary to the behavior observed over the entire region, which has shown a decreasing trend in the number of VLH cases. The observations that the highest incidence is in children 0-4 years old and the highest mortality is in people 60 years and older are in agreement with the expected patterns of VLH.

Spatiotemporal analysis of reported cases of acute Chagas disease in the State of Pernambuco, Brazil, from 2002 to 2013

INTRODUCTION: Control strategies to eliminate the transmission of Chagas disease by insect vectors have significantly decreased the number of reported acute cases in Brazil. However, data regarding the incidence and distribution of acute Chagas disease cases in the State of Pernambuco are unavailable in the literature. METHODS: A geographical information system was used to delineate the spatiotemporal distribution profile of the cases from 2002 to 2013 in 185 municipalities of Pernambuco based on the municipality where notification occurred. The results were presented in digital maps generated by the TerraView software (INPE). RESULTS: A total of 302 cases of acute disease were recorded in 37.8% of the municipalities, for a total of 0.13 cases per 1,000,000 inhabitants per year. Out of the 302 cases, 99.3% were reported between 2002 and 2006. The most affected municipalities were Carnaubeira da Penha, Mirandiba and Terra Nova. The risk maps showed a significant decrease in the number of notifications and a concentration of cases in the Midwest region. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights a significant decrease in new cases of acute Chagas disease in Pernambuco starting in 2006 when Brazil received an international certification for the interruption of vectorial transmission by Triatoma infestans. However, control strategies should still be encouraged because other triatomine species can also transmit the parasite; moreover, other transmission modes must not be neglected.

Spatial analysis of visceral leishmaniasis in the municipality of Rondonópolis, in the Brazilian State of Mato Grosso, from 2003 to 2012: human, canine and vector distribution in areas of disease transmission

INTRODUCTION: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a zoonosis of great importance to public health and is considered a neglected disease by the World Health Organization. The disease has expanded and become more prevalent in urban areas in Brazil. METHODS: Geospatial analyses were performed and thematic maps of the triad of the disease were produced for the study period (2003-2012) in the urban area of the municipality of Rondonópolis in the midwestern State of Mato Grosso (MT), Brazil, TerraView 4.2.2 software was used for the analyses. RESULTS: A total of 87.9% of the 186 confirmed human cases of VL were cured. Children between the ages of 1 and 4 were the most affected. Registered deaths were predominant among adults aged 60 years or older. The urban area of the municipality consists of eight strata and 12 census districts include 237 neighborhoods. All sectors had confirmed cases of VL. During the study period, human cases of the disease were recorded in 90 neighborhoods. The 23 deaths from the disease were distributed in 21 neighborhoods. Sandflies carrying the parasite were captured in 192 out of 200 neighborhoods evaluated for the presence of the VL vector. The presence of dogs carrying the parasite was confirmed in, 140 out of 154 surveyed neighborhoods. CONCLUSIONS: The data demonstrated the endemic nature of VL, with a high percentage of infected children, a high distribution of canine infection, and a wide adaptation and dispersal of the vectors in the urban environment. These results, illustrate the process of urbanization of VL in the municipality of Rondonópolis, MT, Brazil.