Macroeconomic News Effects and Foreign Exchange Jumps

This thesis investigates how macroeconomic news announcements affect jumps and cojumps in foreign exchange markets, especially under different business cycles. We use 5-min interval from high frequency data on Euro/Dollar, Pound/Dollar and Yen/Dollar from Nov. 1, 2004 to Feb. 28, 2015. The jump detection method was proposed by Andersen et al. (2007c), Lee & Mykland (2008) and then modified by Boudt et al. (2011a) for robustness. Then we apply the two-regime smooth transition regression model of Teräsvirta (1994) to explore news effects under different business cycles. We find that scheduled news related to employment, real activity, forward expectations, monetary policy, current account, price and consumption influences forex jumps, but only FOMC Rate Decisions has consistent effects on cojumps. Speeches given by major central bank officials near a crisis also significantly affect jumps and cojumps. However, the impacts of some macroeconomic news are not the same under different economic states.

Évolution des performances scolaires lors de la transition secondaire-Cégep : influences respectives des évaluations PISA, des performances scolaires antérieures et des contextes de vie

Dans le domaine des évaluations des performances des élèves en fin de scolarité obligatoire, et à côté des traditionnelles évaluations scolaires, s’est développé le Programme International pour le Suivi des Acquis (PISA), harmonisé par l’Organisation de Coopération et de Développements Économiques (l’OCDE). Ce programme a atteint une grande notoriété internationale et tente de s’imposer comme programme qui évalue les compétences des élèves. Ce mémoire explore dans quelle mesure les évaluations PISA permettent de prédire les performances scolaires des élèves lors de la transition de la fin des études secondaires vers les études collégiales au Québec. Nous avons construit une variable mesurant l’évolution des performances scolaires entre le secondaire et le Cégep. Nos résultats tendent à confirmer que les évaluations PISA sont en mesure de prédire en partie la continuité des bonnes performances scolaires après contrôle des variables contextuelles des parcours de vie. Cependant, les évaluations scolaires antérieures expliquent mieux cette continuité des bonnes performances scolaires réalisées en première année de postsecondaire que les évaluations PISA. Néanmoins, toujours après contrôle des variables contextuelles, les évaluations scolaires antérieures ne sont pas capables de prédire la différence entre des performances scolaires faibles et fortes lors de la transition secondaire-collégial. Seules les évaluations PISA conservent une faible part pour expliquer ces différences.

"The fertility transition in Kenya : patterns and determinants"

Thèse diffusée initialement dans le cadre d'un projet pilote des Presses de l'Université de Montréal/Centre d'édition numérique UdeM (1997-2008) avec l'autorisation de l'auteur.

Les fins d’emploi de carrière et les emplois de transition vers la retraite selon la profession au Canada, 2002 à 2007

Le vieillissement de la main-d’œuvre canadienne entraîne diverses conséquences sur le marché du travail et sur les parcours de fin de vie active. C’est pourquoi cette recherche s’intéresse à la problématique des fins d’emploi de carrière et du passage vers un emploi de transition vers la retraite. À l’aide des données longitudinales de l’Enquête sur la dynamique du travail et du revenu de 2002 à 2007, l’objectif est de mener une analyse descriptive de cette trajectoire selon la profession, ce qui ne semble jamais avoir été fait dans la littérature canadienne. Les résultats montrent que certaines professions ont enregistré proportionnellement plus de fins d’emploi de carrière durant cette période, dont les enseignants et les occupants d’un poste de direction. Des analyses supplémentaires ont calculé la part des travailleurs ayant effectué leur transition dans une profession différente.

La transition des soins du milieu pédiatrique au milieu hospitalier adulte chez des adolescents transplantés rénaux et chez des adolescents diabétiques : évaluation de l’identité et de l’autodétermination

Résumé Le pourcentage d’enfants et d’adolescents vivant avec une condition chronique qui atteint l’âge adulte a augmenté de façon significative au cours des dernières décennies grâce, notamment, aux avancées en médecine, donnant lieu à la question de transition du milieu hospitalier pédiatrique au milieu hospitalier adulte. Cette transition est décrite par plusieurs chercheurs et cliniciens comme étant un processus complexe pouvant être associé à des difficultés importantes, tel qu’un manque d’adhérence au suivi médical. Malgré les nombreux écrits sur cette problématique, peu d’études longitudinales ancrées dans un contexte théorique ont été réalisées. Le but de cette thèse est d’identifier des facteurs susceptibles de faciliter l’expérience de transition de patients atteints de diabète et de patients greffés rénaux en utilisant une méthodologie longitudinale ainsi qu’en se basant sur un contexte théorique défini et pertinent à la transition de l’adolescence à la vie adulte ainsi qu’à la prise en charge médicale. La thèse est présentée sous forme de trois articles scientifiques. Le premier article examine le développement identitaire, une tâche centrale pendant la période de l’adolescence. Selon la théorie de l’identité d’Erikson (1963) et de Marcia (1966), une identité achevée, caractérisée par un sentiment de soi cohérent établi suite à une exploration, peut aider l’individu à naviguer les obstacles de l’âge adulte. La transition des soins du milieu hospitalier pédiatrique au milieu hospitalier adulte coïncidant avec le passage à l’âge adulte, il est important d’acquérir une bonne compréhension du développement identitaire d’adolescents atteints d’une condition chronique ainsi que du contexte dans lequel leur identité se développe. Dans le cadre de cet article, le développement identitaire et la qualité de vie de 85 adolescents atteints de diabète de type 1 ou ayant reçu une greffe rénale ont été comparé à ceux de 90 adolescents en santé. Au plan identitaire, des analyses de variance ont démontré des différences significatives dans le développement de l’identité idéologique. Précisément, les résultats démontrent un niveau plus élevé de diffusion chez les patients ainsi qu’un niveau plus élevé de forclusion dans le groupe contrôle. En revanche, aucune différence entre les deux groupes n’a été détectée au niveau de l’identité interpersonnelle. De façon similaire, le groupe des patients et le groupe contrôle ont démontré des résultats comparables aux plans de la qualité de vie, de la perception de contrôle sur celle-ci, ainsi qu’au plan de la perception des opportunités à croître et se développer. Les résultats du développement identitaire sont discutés et mis en lien avec la qualité de vie rapportée par le groupe de patients. Le deuxième article consiste en une recension de la littérature ayant pour buts de résumer systématiquement les études en transition basées sur la perspective des patients et d’identifier les facteurs pouvant faciliter l’expérience de transition au milieu hospitalier adulte. À l’aide de la méthodologie du méta-résumé, nous avons procédé à l’extraction, au regroupement et à l’abstraction de résultats provenant de 46 études qualitatives ou de nature descriptive portant sur la transition de patients. Les résultats ont été divisés en quatre catégories, notamment (1) les sentiments et les préoccupations des patients, (2) les recommandations apportées par les patients, (3) les résultats suite au transfert en milieu adulte et (4) l’impact des différents modes de transfert utilisés. Enfin, les résultats de l’article sont discutés dans un cadre théorique de transition qui met l’emphase sur des conditions précises pouvant assurer une transition réussie. Le troisième article a pour objectif d’utiliser une théorie pour étudier l’expérience de transition d’adolescents atteints d’une condition chronique. Étant donné l’importance accordée à l’environnement médical par les patients ainsi que les différences importantes qui existent entre le milieu hospitalier pédiatrique et le milieu hospitalier adulte, la théorie de l’auto-détermination a été sélectionnée. Selon cette théorie, la perception de soutien de l’autonomie de la part du personnel médical est intimement liée à une plus grande motivation et un sentiment de compétence chez les patients à l’égard de leur routine de soins, ainsi qu’à une meilleure adhérence au traitement. Guidés par cette théorie, nous avons suivi l’expérience de transition de patients atteints d’un diabète de type 1 ou de patients ayant reçu une greffe de rein 6 mois avant leur transfert (n= 85) ainsi que 6 mois (n= 49) et un an (n= 36) après leur transfert au milieu adulte. Les résultats révèlent que les patients se sentent généralement prêts à transférer. Suite au transfert, une baisse est enregistrée dans la perception du soutien de l’autonomie des patients. En revanche, un an suite au transfert, les patients rapportent un plus grand sentiment de choix ainsi que la perception d’une plus grande adaptation au milieu adulte. Enfin, les résultats démontrent qu’un plus grand sentiment de soutien de l’autonomie est associé à des niveaux plus élevés de satisfaction, de motivation, de compétence, et de perception d’adhérence au traitement. Les implications pratiques de cette étude sont soulignées.

Etude des facteurs associés à la détresse psychologique lors de la transition des ainés vers la retraite

Les résultats ont été analysés à l'aide du logiciel SPSS

The green economy challenge to IPE

Note d'analyse

Factores asociados a complicaciones post quirúrgicas en pacientes adultos con obstrucción intestinal mecánica en Bogotá, Colombia, período 2008 - 2014

Introducción: La obstrucción intestinal es una patología de alta prevalencia e impacto en los servicios de cirugía general a nivel mundial. El manejo de esta entidad puede ser médico o quirúrgico. Cuando se requiere intervención quirúrgica, se busca evitar el desarrollo de isquemia intestinal y resecciones intestinales; durante el postoperatorio, pueden existir complicaciones. El objetivo de este estudio es identificar los factores asociados al desarrollo de complicaciones post operatorias en un grupo de pacientes con obstrucción intestinal mecánica llevados a manejo quirúrgico. Metodología: Estudio analítico tipo casos y controles en un grupo de pacientes con diagnóstico de obstrucción intestinal mecánica llevados a manejo quirúrgico de su patología. Los casos corresponden a los pacientes con complicaciones postoperatorias y los controles aquellos que no presentaron complicaciones. Se identificaron factores asociados a complicación post operatoria mediante modelos estadísticos bivariados y multivariados de regresión logística para factores como edad, sexo, antecedente quirúrgico, presentación clínica, paraclínica y diagnóstico postoperatorio de malignidad, entre otras. Resultados: Se identificaron un total de 138 pacientes (54 casos y 129 controles). Los rangos de edad entre 55-66 años y mayor de 66 años fueron asociados con complicaciones postoperatorias (OR 3,87 IC95% 1,58-9,50 y OR 3,62 IC95% 1,45-9,08 respectivamente). El déficit de base inferior a 5 mEq/litro se relaciona con complicaciones postoperatorias (OR 2,64 IC95% 1.33-5,25) Otras pruebas de laboratorio, características radiológicas, hallazgos de malignidad en el postoperatorio y la evolución de los pacientes no fueron asociados con complicaciones. Conclusiones: Las disminución de las complicaciones durante el manejo quirúrgico de obstrucción intestinal mecánica continúa siendo un reto para la cirugía general. Factores no modificables como edad avanzada y modificables como el equilibrio ácido base deben ser tenidos en cuenta dada su correlación en el desarrollo de complicaciones postoperatorias.

Converting the nanodomains of a diblock-copolymer thin film from spheres to cylinders with an external electric field

We investigate the ability of an applied electric field to convert the morphology of a diblock-copolymer thin film from a monolayer of spherical domains embedded in the matrix to cylindrical domains that penetrate through the matrix. As expected, the applied field increases the relative stability of cylindrical domains, while simultaneously reducing the energy barrier that impedes the transition to cylinders. The effectiveness of the field is enhanced by a large dielectric contrast between the two block-copolymer components, particularly when the low-dielectric contrast component forms the matrix. Furthermore, the energy barrier is minimized by selecting sphere-forming diblock copolymers that are as compositionally symmetric as possible. Our calculations, which are the most quantitatively reliable to date, are performed using a numerically precise spectral algorithm based on self-consistent-field theory supplemented with an exact treatment for linear dielectric materials.

Easing transition and promoting a positive student experience within an international partnership scheme for British and Chinese teachers

This article investigates the needs and challenges of a group of Chinese secondary school teachers in their transition to postgraduate studies in the UK in the context of a British-Chinese partnership. The strategies and efforts of the host institution, local community and the Chinese students themselves to help ease the transition and promote a positive student experience are discussed. The article highlights the sociological processes of international postgraduate student transition and contributes to our understanding of issues of student support pertinent to international partnership arrangements.

Mid-term evaluation of African Technology Policy Studies Network Phase VI Strategic Plan: for the period January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2010

The African Technology Policy Studies Network (ATPS) is a multidisciplinary network of researchers, private sector actors, policymakers and civil society. ATPS has the vision to become the leading international centre of excellence and reference in science, technology and innovation (STI) systems research, training and capacity building, communication and sensitization, knowledge brokerage, policy advocacy and outreach in Africa. It has a Regional Secretariat in Nairobi Kenya, and operates through national chapters in 29 countries (including 27 in Africa and two Chapters in the United Kingdom and USA for Africans in the Diaspora) with an expansion plan to cover the entire continent by 2015. The ATPS Phase VI Strategic Plan aims to improve the understanding and functioning of STI processes and systems to strengthen the learning capacity, social responses, and governance of STI for addressing Africa's development challenges, with a specific focus on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). A team of external evaluators carried out a midterm review to assess the effectiveness and efficiency of the implementation of the Strategic Plan for the period January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2010. The evaluation methodology involved multiple quantitative and qualitative methods to assess the qualitative and quantitative inputs (human resources, financial resources, time, etc.) into ATPS activities (both thematic and facilitative) and their tangible and intangible outputs, outcomes and impacts. Methods included a questionnaire survey of ATPS members and stakeholders, key informant interviews, and focus group discussions (FGDs) with members in six countries. Effectiveness of Programmes Under all six strategic goals, very good progress has been made towards planned outputs and outcomes. This is evidenced by key performance indicators (KPIs) generated from desk review, ratings from the survey respondents, and the themes that run through the FGDs. Institutional and Programme Cost Effectiveness Institutional Effectiveness: assessment of institutional effectiveness suggests that adequate management frameworks are in place and are being used effectively and transparently. Also technical and financial accounting mechanisms are being followed in accordance with grant agreements and with global good practice. This is evidenced by KPIs generated from desk review. Programme Cost Effectiveness: assessment of cost-effectiveness of execution of programmes shows that organisational structure is efficient, delivering high quality, relevant research at relatively low cost by international standards. The evidence includes KPIs from desk review: administrative costs to programme cost ratio has fallen steadily, to around 10%; average size of research grants is modest, without compromising quality. There is high level of pro bono input by ATPS members. ATPS Programmes Strategic Evaluation ATPS research and STI related activities are indeed unique and well aligned with STI issues and needs facing Africa and globally. The multi-disciplinary and trans-boundary nature of the research activities are creating a unique group of research scientists. The ATPS approach to research and STI issues is paving the way for the so called Third Generation University (3GU). Understanding this unique positioning, an increasing number of international multilateral agencies are seeking partnership with ATPS. ATPS is seeing an increasing level of funding commitments by Donor Partners. Recommendations for ATPS Continued Growth and Effectiveness On-going reform of ATPS administrative structure to continue The on-going reforms that have taken place within the Board, Regional Secretariat, and at the National Chapter coordination levels are welcomed. Such reform should continue until fully functional corporate governance policy and practices are fully established and implemented across the ATPS governance structures. This will further strengthen ATPS to achieve the vision of being the leading STI policy brokerage organization in Africa. Although training in corporate governance has been carried out for all sectors of ATPS leadership structure in recent time, there is some evidence that these systems have not yet been fully implemented effectively within all the governance structures of the organization, especially at the Board and National chapter levels. Future training should emphasize practical application with exercises relevant to ATPS leadership structure from the Board to the National Chapter levels. Training on Transformational Leadership - Leading a Change Though a subject of intense debate amongst economists and social scientists, it is generally agreed that cultural mindsets and attitudes could enhance and/or hinder organizational progress. ATPS’s vision demands transformational leadership skills amongst its leaders from the Board members to the National Chapter Coordinators. To lead such a change, ATPS leaders must understand and avoid personal and cultural mindsets and value systems that hinder change, while embracing those that enhance it. It requires deliberate assessment of cultural, behavioural patterns that could hinder progress and the willingness to be recast into cultural and personal habits that make for progress. Improvement of relationship amongst the Board, Secretariat, and National Chapters A large number of ATPS members and stakeholders feel they do not have effective communications and/or access to Board, National Chapter Coordinators and Regional Secretariat activities. Effort should be made to improve the implementation of ATPS communication strategy to improve on information flows amongst the ATPS management and the members. The results of the survey and the FGDs suggest that progress has been made during the past two years in this direction, but more could be done to ensure effective flow of pertinent information to members following ATPS communications channels. Strategies for Increased Funding for National Chapters There is a big gap between the fundraising skills of the Regional Secretariat and those of the National Coordinators. In some cases, funds successfully raised by the Secretariat and disbursed to national chapters were not followed up with timely progress and financial reports by some national chapters. Adequate training in relevant skills required for effective interactions with STI key policy players should be conducted regularly for National Chapter coordinators and ATPS members. The ongoing training in grant writing should continue and be made continent-wide if funding permits. Funding of National Chapters should be strategic such that capacity in a specific area of research is built which, with time, will not only lead to a strong research capacity in that area, but also strengthen academic programmes. For example, a strong climate change programme is emerging at University of Nigeria Nsukka (UNN), with strong collaborations with Universities from neighbouring States. Strategies to Increase National Government buy-in and support for STI Translating STI research outcomes into policies requires a great deal of emotional intelligence, skills which are often lacking in the first and second generation universities. In the epoch of the science-based or 2GUs, governments were content with universities carrying out scientific research and providing scientific education. Now they desire to see universities as incubators of new science- or technology-based commercial activities, whether by existing firms or start-ups. Hence, governments demand that universities take an active and leading role in the exploitation of their knowledge and they are willing to make funds available to support such activities. Thus, for universities to gain the attention of national leadership they must become centres of excellence and explicit instruments of economic development in the knowledge-based economy. The universities must do this while working collaboratively with government departments, parastatals, and institutions and dedicated research establishments. ATPS should anticipate these shifting changes and devise programmes to assist both government and universities to relate effectively. New administrative structures in member organizations to sustain and manage the emerging STI multidisciplinary teams Second Generation universities (2GUs) tend to focus on pure science and often do not regard the application of their know-how as their task. In contrast, Third Generation Universities (3GUs) objectively stimulate techno-starters – students or academics – to pursue the exploitation or commercialisation of the knowledge they generate. They view this as being equal in importance to the objectives of scientific research and education. Administratively, research in the 2GU era was mainly monodisciplinary and departments were structured along disciplines. The emerging interdisciplinary scientific teams with focus on specific research areas functionally work against the current mono-disciplinary faculty-based, administrative structure of 2GUs. For interdisciplinary teams, the current faculty system is an obstacle. There is a need for new organisational forms for university management that can create responsibilities for the task of know-how exploitation. ATPS must anticipate this and begin to strategize solutions for their member institutions to transition to 3Gus administrative structure, otherwise ATPS growth will plateau, and progress achieved so far may be stunted.

Evolutionary dynamics of Staphylococcus aureus during progression from carriage to disease

Whole-genome sequencing offers new insights into the evolution of bacterial pathogens and the etiology of bacterial disease. Staph- ylococcus aureus is a major cause of bacteria-associated mortality and invasive disease and is carried asymptomatically by 27% of adults. Eighty percent of bacteremias match the carried strain. How- ever, the role of evolutionary change in the pathogen during the progression from carriage to disease is incompletely understood. Here we use high-throughput genome sequencing to discover the genetic changes that accompany the transition from nasal carriage to fatal bloodstream infection in an individual colonized with meth- icillin-sensitive S. aureus. We found a single, cohesive population exhibiting a repertoire of 30 single-nucleotide polymorphisms and four insertion/deletion variants. Mutations accumulated at a steady rate over a 13-mo period, except for a cluster of mutations preceding the transition to disease. Although bloodstream bacteria differed by just eight mutations from the original nasally carried bacteria, half of those mutations caused truncation of proteins, including a prema- ture stop codon in an AraC-family transcriptional regulator that has been implicated in pathogenicity. Comparison with evolution in two asymptomatic carriers supported the conclusion that clusters of pro- tein-truncating mutations are highly unusual. Our results demon- strate that bacterial diversity in vivo is limited but nonetheless detectable by whole-genome sequencing, enabling the study of evolutionary dynamics within the host. Regulatory or structural changes that occur during carriage may be functionally important for pathogenesis; therefore identifying those changes is a crucial step in understanding the biological causes of invasive bacterial disease.

Grey waters bright with Neolithic argonauts? Maritime connections and the Mesolithic-Neolithic transition within the 'western seaways' of Britain, c. 5000-3500 BC.

Careful examination of the probable natural conditions for travel in the North Sea and Irish Sea during the late Mesolithic are here combined with the latest radiocarbon dates to present a new picture of the transition to the Neolithic in the British Isles. The islands of the west were already connected by Mesolithic traffic and did not all go Neolithic at the same time. The introduction of the Neolithic package neither depended on seaborne incomers nor on proximity to the continent. More interesting forces were probably operating on an already busy seaway.

Ionospheric convection response to slow, strong variations in a northward interplanetary magnetic field: A case study for January 14, 1988

We analyze ionospheric convection patterns over the polar regions during the passage of an interplanetary magnetic cloud on January 14, 1988, when the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) rotated slowly in direction and had a large amplitude. Using the assimilative mapping of ionospheric electrodynamics (AMIE) procedure, we combine simultaneous observations of ionospheric drifts and magnetic perturbations from many different instruments into consistent patterns of high-latitude electrodynamics, focusing on the period of northward IMF. By combining satellite data with ground-based observations, we have generated one of the most comprehensive data sets yet assembled and used it to produce convection maps for both hemispheres. We present evidence that a lobe convection cell was embedded within normal merging convection during a period when the IMF By and Bz components were large and positive. As the IMF became predominantly northward, a strong reversed convection pattern (afternoon-to-morning potential drop of around 100 kV) appeared in the southern (summer) polar cap, while convection in the northern (winter) hemisphere became weak and disordered with a dawn-to-dusk potential drop of the order of 30 kV. These patterns persisted for about 3 hours, until the IMF rotated significantly toward the west. We interpret this behavior in terms of a recently proposed merging model for northward IMF under solstice conditions, for which lobe field lines from the hemisphere tilted toward the Sun (summer hemisphere) drape over the dayside magnetosphere, producing reverse convection in the summer hemisphere and impeding direct contact between the solar wind and field lines connected to the winter polar cap. The positive IMF Bx component present at this time could have contributed to the observed hemispheric asymmetry. Reverse convection in the summer hemisphere broke down rapidly after the ratio |By/Bz| exceeded unity, while convection in the winter hemisphere strengthened. A dominant dawn-to-dusk potential drop was established in both hemispheres when the magnitude of By exceeded that of Bz, with potential drops of the order of 100 kV, even while Bz remained northward. The later transition to southward Bz produced a gradual intensification of the convection, but a greater qualitative change occurred at the transition through |By/Bz| = 1 than at the transition through Bz = 0. The various convection patterns we derive under northward IMF conditions illustrate all possibilities previously discussed in the literature: nearly single-cell and multicell, distorted and symmetric, ordered and unordered, and sunward and antisunward.