Long-term changes in phytoplankton, zooplankton and salmon related to climate

Recently, large-scale changes in the biogeography of calanoid copepod crustaceans have been detected in the northeastern North Atlantic Ocean and adjacent seas. Strong biogeographical shifts in all copepod assemblages were found with a northward extension of more than ° in latitude of warm-water species associated with a decrease in the number of colder-water species. These changes were attributed to regional increase in sea surface temperature. Here, we have extended these studies to examine long-term changes in phytoplankton, zooplankton and salmon in relation to hydro-meteorological forcing in the northeast Atlantic Ocean and adjacent seas. We found highly significant relationships between (1) long-term changes in all three trophic levels, (2) sea surface temperature in the northeastern Atlantic, (3) Northern Hemisphere temperature and (4) the North Atlantic Oscillation. The similarities detected between plankton, salmon, temperature and hydro-climatic parameters are also seen in their cyclical variability and in a stepwise shift that started after a pronounced increase in Northern Hemisphere Temperature anomalies at the end of the 1970s. All biological variables show a pronounced change which started after circa 1982 for euphausiids (decline), 1984 for the total abundance of small copepods (increase), 1986 for phytoplankton biomass (increase) and Calanus finmarchicus (decrease) and 1988 for salmon (decrease). This cascade of biological events led to an exceptional period, which is identified after 1986 to present and followed another shift in large-scale hydro-climatic variables and sea surface temperature. This regional temperature increase therefore appears to be an important parameter that is at present governing the dynamic equilibrium of northeast Atlantic pelagic ecosystems with possible consequences for biogeochemical processes and fisheries.

Spatial, seasonal and long-term fluctuations of plankton in relation to hydroclimatic features in the English Channel, Celtic Sea and Bay of Biscay

Plankton collected by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey were investigated for the English Channel, Celtic Sea and Bay of Biscay from 1979 to 1995. The main goal was to study the relationship between climate and plankton and to understand the factors influencing it. In order to take into account the spatial and temporal structure of biological data, a three-mode principal component analysis (PCA) was developed. It not only identified 5 zones characterised by their similar biological composition and by the seasonal and inter-annual evolution of the plankton, it also made species associations based on their location and year-to-year change. The studied species have stronger year-to-year fluctuations in abundance over the English Channel and Celtic Sea than the species offshore in the Bay of Biscay. The changes in abundance of plankton in the English Channel are negatively related to inter-annual changes of climatic conditions from December to March (North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO] index and air temperature). Thus, the negative relationship shown by Fromentin and Planque (1996; Mar Ecol Prog Ser 134:111-118) between year-to-year changes of Calanus finmarchicus abundance in the northern North Atlantic and North Sea and NAO was also found for the most abundant copepods in the Channel. However, the hypothesis proposed to explain the plankton/NAO relationship is different for this region and a new hypothesis is proposed. In the Celtic Sea, a relationship between the planktonic assemblage and the air temperature was detected, but it is weaker than for the English Channel. No relationship was found for the Bay of Biscay. Thus, the local physical environment and the biological composition of these zones appear to modify the relationship between winter climatic conditions and the year-to-year fluctuations of the studied planktonic species. This shows, therefore, that the relationship between climate and plankton is difficult to generalise.

On the temporal consistency of chlorophyll products derived from three ocean-colour sensors

Satellite ocean-colour sensors have life spans lasting typically five-to-ten years. Detection of long-term trends in chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a) using satellite ocean colour thus requires the combination of different ocean-colour missions with sufficient overlap to allow for cross-calibration. A further requirement is that the different sensors perform at a sufficient standard to capture seasonal and inter-annual fluctuations in ocean colour. For over eight years, the SeaWiFS, MODIS-Aqua and MERIS ocean-colour sensors operated in parallel. In this paper, we evaluate the temporal consistency in the monthly Chl-a time-series and in monthly inter-annual variations in Chl-a among these three sensors over the 2002–2010 time period. By subsampling the monthly Chl-a data from the three sensors consistently, we found that the Chl-a time-series and Chl-a anomalies among sensors were significantly correlated for >90% of the global ocean. These correlations were also relatively insensitive to the choice of three Chl-a algorithms and two atmospheric-correction algorithms. Furthermore, on the subsampled time-series, correlations between Chl-a and time, and correlations between Chl-a and physical variables (sea-surface temperature and sea-surface height) were not significantly different for >92% of the global ocean. The correlations in Chl-a and physical variables observed for all three sensors also reflect previous theories on coupling between physical processes and phytoplankton biomass. The results support the combining of Chl-a data from SeaWiFS, MODIS-Aqua and MERIS sensors, for use in long-term Chl-a trend analysis, and highlight the importance of accounting for differences in spatial sampling among sensors when combining ocean-colour observations.

Late winter under ice pelagic microbial communities in the high Arctic Ocean and the impact of short-term exposure to elevated CO2 levels

Polar Oceans are natural CO2 sinks because of the enhanced solubility of CO2 in cold water. The Arctic Ocean is at additional risk of accelerated ocean acidification (OA) because of freshwater inputs from sea ice and rivers, which influence the carbonate system. Winter conditions in the Arctic are of interest because of both cold temperatures and limited CO2 venting to the atmosphere when sea ice is present. Earlier OA experiments on Arctic microbial communities conducted in the absence of ice cover, hinted at shifts in taxa dominance and diversity under lowered pH. The Catlin Arctic Survey provided an opportunity to conduct in situ, under-ice, OA experiments during late Arctic winter. Seawater was collected from under the sea ice off Ellef Ringnes Island, and communities were exposed to three CO2 levels for 6 days. Phylogenetic diversity was greater in the attached fraction compared to the free-living fraction in situ, in the controls and in the treatments. The dominant taxa in all cases were Gammaproteobacteria but acidification had little effect compared to the effects of containment. Phylogenetic net relatedness indices suggested that acidification may have decreased the diversity within some bacterial orders, but overall there was no clear trend. Within the experimental communities, alkalinity best explained the variance among samples and replicates, suggesting subtle changes in the carbonate system need to be considered in such experiments. We conclude that under ice communities have the capacity to respond either by selection or phenotypic plasticity to heightened CO2 levels over the short term.

Long-term individual foraging site fidelity – why some gannets don’t change their spots

Many established models of animal foraging assume that individuals are ecologically equivalent. However, it is increasingly recognized that populations may comprise individuals who differ consistently in their diets and foraging behaviors. For example, recent studies have shown that individual foraging site fidelity (IFSF, when individuals consistently forage in only a small part of their population's home range) occurs in some colonial breeders. Short‐term IFSF could result from animals using a win–stay, lose–shift foraging strategy. Alternatively, it may be a consequence of individual specialization. Pelagic seabirds are colonial central‐place foragers, classically assumed to use flexible foraging strategies to target widely dispersed, spatiotemporally patchy prey. However, tracking has shown that IFSF occurs in many seabirds, although it is not known whether this persists across years. To test for long‐term IFSF and to examine alternative hypotheses concerning its cause, we repeatedly tracked 55 Northern Gannets (Morus bassanus) from a large colony in the North Sea within and across three successive breeding seasons. Gannets foraged in neritic waters, predictably structured by tidal mixing and thermal stratification, but subject to stochastic, wind‐induced overturning. Both within and across years, coarse to mesoscale (tens of kilometers) IFSF was significant but not absolute, and foraging birds departed the colony in individually consistent directions. Carbon stable isotope ratios in gannet blood tissues were repeatable within years and nitrogen ratios were also repeatable across years, suggesting long‐term individual dietary specialization. Individuals were also consistent across years in habitat use with respect to relative sea surface temperature and in some dive metrics, yet none of these factors accounted for IFSF. Moreover, at the scale of weeks, IFSF did not decay over time and the magnitude of IFSF across years was similar to that within years, suggesting that IFSF is not primarily the result of win–stay, lose–shift foraging. Rather, we hypothesize that site familiarity, accrued early in life, causes IFSF by canalizing subsequent foraging decisions. Evidence from this and other studies suggests that IFSF may be common in colonial central‐place foragers, with far‐reaching consequences for our attempts to understand and conserve these animals in a rapidly changing environment.

Attitudes to community relations in Northern Ireland: signs of optimisim in the post-cease fire period?

This article uses attitudinal data to explore Catholic and Protestant perspectives on community relations and equality since the paramilitary cease fires in 1994. Although attitudes tend to fluctuate with the‘headline grabbing'events of the day, the article argues that there are signs that some fundamental changes have taken place in the post cease fire period. Of particular importance in this regard is the positive response recorded by the Catholic community towards government measures to tackle disadvantage and inequality. Equally significant is the protestant response to many of these measures which is often one of ambivalence rather than derision. In so far as the data appear to challenge the‘zero-sum'game that traditionally underpins relations between the two communities in Northern Ireland, they provide some grounds for optimism. Yet such optimism is tempered somewhat by the seeds of discontent which are manifest within the protestant community, particularly around issues of equality in employment and cultural traditions. Despite the more positive assessment of community relations and equality in 2002, it is argued that further monitoring will be required to determine the long-term effects of policy reform on relationships between the two communit

The effect of dust obscuration in RR Telescopii on optical and IR long-term photometry and FeII emission lines

Aims. Infrared and optical photometric and spectroscopic observations of the symbiotic nova RR Tel are used to study the effects and properties of dust in symbiotic binaries containing a cool Mira component, as well as showing "obscuration events" of increased absorption, which are typical for such Miras. Methods. A set of photometric observations of the symbiotic nova RR Tel in different wavelength bands - visual from 1949 to 2002 and near-infrared (JHKL) from 1975 to 2002 - are presented. The variability due to the normal Mira pulsation was removed from the JHKL data, which were then compared with the American Association of Variable Star Observers' (AAVSO) visual light curve. The changes of the Fe II emission line fluxes during the 1996-2000 obscuration episode were studied in the optical spectra taken with the Anglo-Australian telescope. Results. We discuss the three periods during which the Mira component was heavily obscured by dust as observed in the different wavelength bands. A change in the correlations of J with other infrared magnitudes was observed with the colour becoming redder after JD 2 446 600. Generally, J-K was comparable, while K-L was larger than typical values for singleMiras. A distance estimate of 2.5 kpc, based on the IR data, is given. A larger flux decrease for the permitted than for the forbidden Fe II lines, during the obscuration episode studied, has been found. There is no evidence for other correlations with line properties, in particular with wavelength, which suggests obscuration due to separate optically thick clouds in the outer layers. Conclusions.

Nonharmonic transverse vibration of the H-bonded molecules and the THz spectra in ice and water

A nonlinear equation of motion is found for the dimer comprising two charged H2O molecules. The THz dielectric response to nonharmonic vibration of a nonrigid dipole, forming the hydrogen bond (HB), is found in the direction transverse to this bond. An explicit expression is derived for the autocorrelator that governs the spectrum generated by transverse vibration (TV) of such a dipole. This expression is obtained by analytical solution of the truncated set of recurrence equations. The far infrared (FIR) spectra of ice at the temperature - 7 degrees C are calculated. The wideband, in the wavenumber (frequency) v range 0... 100.0 cm(-1), spectra are obtained for liquid water at room temperature and for supercooled water at -5.6 degrees C. All spectra are represented in terms of the complex permittivity epsilon(v) and the absorption coefficient alpha(v). The obtained analytical formula for epsilon comprises the term epsilon(perpendicular to) pertinent to the studied TV mechanism with three additional terms Delta epsilon(q), Delta epsilon(mu), and epsilon(or) arising, respectively, from: elastic harmonic vibration of charged molecules along the H-bond; elastic reorientation of HB permanent dipoles; and rather free libration of permanent dipoles in 'defects' of water/ice structure. The suggested TV-dielectric relaxation mechanism allows us: (a) to remove the THz 'deficit' of loss epsilon" inherent in previous theoretical studies; (b) to explain the THz loss and absorption spectra in supercooled (SC) water; and (c) to describe, in agreement with the experiment, the low- and high-frequency tails of the two bands of ice H2O located in the range 10...300 cm(-1). Specific THz dielectric properties of SC water are ascribed to association of water molecules, revealed in our study by transverse vibration of HB charged molecules. (C) 2006 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Cooperativism, entrepreneurship and economic development: a linking theoretical model

Cooperatives, as a kind of firms, are considered by many scholars as an remarkable alternative for overcoming the economic crisis started in 2008. Besides, there are other scholars which pointed out the important role that these firms play in the regional economic development. Nevertheless, when one examines the economic literature on cooperatives, it is detected that this kind of firms is mainly studied starting from the point of view of their own characteristics and particularities of participation and solidarity. In this sense, following a different analysis framework, this article proposes a theoretical model in order to explain the behavior of cooperatives based on the entrepreneurship theory with the aim of increasing the knowledge about this kind of firms and, more specifically, their contribution to regional economic development.

Antagonistic effects of two novel GIP analogs, (Hyp(3))GIP and (Hyp(3)) GIPLys(16)PAL, on the biological actions of GIP and longer-term effects in diabetic ob/ob mice

This study examines the actions of the novel enzyme- resistant, NH2- terminally modified GIP analog ( Hyp(3)) GIP and its fatty acid- derivatized analog ( Hyp(3)) GIPLys(16)PAL. Acute effects are compared with the established GIP receptor antagonist ( Pro(3)) GIP. All three peptides exhibited DPP IV resistance, and significantly inhibited GIP stimulated cAMP formation and insulin secretion in GIP receptor- transfected fibroblasts and in clonal pancreatic BRIN- BD11 cells, respectively. Likewise, in obese diabetic ob/ob mice, intraperitoneal administration of GIP analogs significantly inhibited the acute antihyperglycemic and insulinreleasing effects of native GIP. Administration of once daily injections of ( Hyp(3)) GIP or ( Hyp(3)) GIPLys(16)PAL for 14 days resulted in significantly lower plasma glucose levels ( P <0.05) after ( Hyp3) GIP on days 12 and 14 and enhanced glucose tolerance ( P <0.05) and insulin sensitivity ( P <0.05 to P <0.001) in both groups by day 14. Both ( Hyp(3)) GIP and ( Hyp(3)) GIPLys(16)PAL treatment also reduced pancreatic insulin ( P <0.05 to P <0.01) without affecting islet number. These data indicate that ( Hyp3) GIP and ( Hyp(3)) GIPLys(16)PAL function as GIP receptor antagonists with potential for ameliorating obesity- related diabetes. Acylation of ( Hyp(3)) GIP to extend bioactivity does not appear to be of any additional benefit.

Development and Longer Term In Situ Evaluation of Fiber-Optic Sensors for Monitoring of Structural Concrete

In this paper, new solutions to the problem of making measurements, of carbonation and chloride ingress, in particular, in concrete structures are considered. The approach has focused on the design, development, and use of fiber-optic sensors (FOSs), recognizing the need in that conventional devices are often either inaccurate, expensive, or unsuitable for encapsulation in the material. The sensors have been designed to monitor, in situ and nondestructively, relevant physical, and chemical changes in cementitious materials. Three different types of FOS were constructed, tested, and evaluated specifically for this application, these being a temperature sensor (based on the fluorescence decay) and pH and chloride sensors, based on sol-gel (solidified gel) technology with appropriate impregnated indicators. The sensors were all designed to be inserted into the structures and evaluated under the harshest conditions, i.e., being mounted when the mortar is poured and thus tested in situ, with the temperature and pH sensors successfully embedded in mortar. The outcomes of these tests have shown that both the temperature sensor and the pH sensor were able to function correctly for the duration of the work - for over 18 months after placement. The laboratory tests on the chloride sensor showed it was able to make measurements but was not reversible, limiting its potential utility for in situ environments. Research is ongoing to refine the sensor performance and extend the testing.

Children's serial recall errors: Implications for theories of short-term memory development

Three experiments examined developmental changes in serial recall of lists of 6 letters, with errors classified as movements, omissions, intrusions, or repetitions. In Experiments 1 and 2, developmental differences between groups of children aged from 7 to 11 years and adults were found in the pattern of serial recall errors. The errors of older participants were more likely to be movements than were those of younger participants, who made more intrusions and omissions. The number of repetition errors did not change with age, and this finding is interpreted in terms of a developmentally invariant postoutput response inhibition process. This interpretation was supported by the findings of Experiment 3, which measured levels of response inhibition in 7-, 9-, and 11-year-olds by comparing recall of lists with and without repeated items. Response inhibition remained developmentally invariant, although older children showed greater response facilitation (improved correct recall of adjacent repeated items). Group differences in the patterns of other errors are accounted for in terms of developmental changes in levels of output forgetting and changes in the efficiency of temporal encoding processes, (C) 2000 Academic Press.

Organisational Self-Evaluation and Teacher Education for Community Relations in a Transforming Society?

During 2004, the School of Education at the University of Ulster embarked on an innovative three-year project designed to embed community relations objectives within initial teacher education. With the advent of more peaceful times in Northern Ireland, this was a precipitous time for initial teacher educators to review the preparation given to beginner teachers for teaching in an increasingly pluralist society emerging from conflict. The present paper reports on one very specific and time-limited element of the broader project. That is, development work designed to investigate the possibilities of using processes of self-review and evaluation as a lever for improvements in initial teacher education for community relations. Following a brief contextualisation, the background to, and the development of, a set of materials designed to support rigorous and systematic self-review of all aspects of provision in a university-based initial teacher education department is described. The Community Relations Index for Initial Teacher Education (Cr-ITE) was envisaged as being of use to initial teacher education establishments in order to help teacher educators take responsibility for rigorous learning from their practice, whilst placing inclusive values at the centre of organisational development. The final section includes further critical reflection on the role of organisational self-review in transforming teacher education for inclusion in a society emerging from longstanding communal conflict.

Short, medium and long term load forecasting model and virtual load forecaster based on radial basis neural networks

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) can be easily applied to short-term load forecasting (STLF) models for electric power distribution applications. However, they are not typically used in medium and long term load forecasting (MLTLF) electric power models because of the difficulties associated with collecting and processing the necessary data. Virtual instrument (VI) techniques can be applied to electric power load forecasting but this is rarely reported in the literature. In this paper, we investigate the modelling and design of a VI for short, medium and long term load forecasting using ANNs. Three ANN models were built for STLF of electric power. These networks were trained using historical load data and also considering weather data which is known to have a significant affect of the use of electric power (such as wind speed, precipitation, atmospheric pressure, temperature and humidity). In order to do this a V-shape temperature processing model is proposed. With regards MLTLF, a model was developed using radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN). Results indicate that the forecasting model based on the RBFNN has a high accuracy and stability. Finally, a virtual load forecaster which integrates the VI and the RBFNN is presented.

Wear paths produced by individual hip-replacement patients— A large-scale, long-term follow-up study

Wear particle accumulation is one of the main contributors to osteolysis and implant failure in hip replacements. Altered kinematics produce significant differences in wear rates of hip replacements in simulator studies due to varying degrees of multidirectional motion. Gait analysis data from 153 hip-replacement patients 10-years post-operation were used to model two- and three-dimensional wear paths for each patient. Wear paths were quantified in two dimensions using aspect ratios and in three dimensions using the surface areas of the wear paths, with wear-path surface area correlating poorly with aspect ratio. The average aspect ratio of the patients wear paths was 3.97 (standard deviation ¼ 1.38), ranging from 2.13 to 10.86. Sixty percent of patients displayed aspect ratios between 2.50 and 3.99. However, 13% of patients displayed wear paths with aspect ratios 45.5, which indicates reduced multidirectional motion. The majority of total hip replacement (THR) patients display gait kinematics which produce multidirectional wear paths, but a significant minority display more linear paths.