A study of the errors of the averaged models in the restricted three-body problem in a short time scale

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Comparison of linear measurements and analyses taken from plaster models and three-dimensional images

Digital models are an alternative for carrying out analyses and devising treatment plans in orthodontics. The objective of this study was to evaluate the accuracy and the reproducibility of measurements of tooth sizes, interdental distances and analyses of occlusion using plaster models and their digital images. Thirty pairs of plaster models were chosen at random, and the digital images of each plaster model were obtained using a laser scanner (3Shape R-700, 3Shape A/S). With the plaster models, the measurements were taken using a caliper (Mitutoyo Digimatic(®), Mitutoyo (UK) Ltd) and the MicroScribe (MS) 3DX (Immersion, San Jose, Calif). For the digital images, the measurement tools used were those from the O3d software (Widialabs, Brazil). The data obtained were compared statistically using the Dahlberg formula, analysis of variance and the Tukey test (p < 0.05). The majority of the measurements, obtained using the caliper and O3d were identical, and both were significantly different from those obtained using the MS. Intra-examiner agreement was lowest when using the MS. The results demonstrated that the accuracy and reproducibility of the tooth measurements and analyses from the plaster models using the caliper and from the digital models using O3d software were identical.

Automated detection of the osseous acetabular rim using three-dimensional models of the pelvis

An automated algorithm for detection of the acetabular rim was developed. Accuracy of the algorithm was validated in a sawbone study and compared against manually conducted digitization attempts, which were established as the ground truth. The latter proved to be reliable and reproducible, demonstrated by almost perfect intra- and interobserver reliability. Validation of the automated algorithm showed no significant difference compared to the manually acquired data in terms of detected version and inclination. Automated detection of the acetabular rim contour and the spatial orientation of the acetabular opening plane can be accurately achieved with this algorithm.

Transmission of Chlamydia trachomatis through sexual partnerships: a comparison between three individual-based models and empirical data

Chlamydia trachomatis is the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infection (STI) in many developed countries. The highest prevalence rates are found among young adults who have frequent partner change rates. Three published individual-based models have incorporated a detailed description of age-specific sexual behaviour in order to quantify the transmission of C. trachomatis in the population and to assess the impact of screening interventions. Owing to varying assumptions about sexual partnership formation and dissolution and the great uncertainty about critical parameters, such models show conflicting results about the impact of preventive interventions. Here, we perform a detailed evaluation of these models by comparing the partnership formation and dissolution dynamics with data from Natsal 2000, a population-based probability sample survey of sexual attitudes and lifestyles in Britain. The data also allow us to describe the dispersion of C. trachomatis infections as a function of sexual behaviour, using the Gini coefficient. We suggest that the Gini coefficient is a useful measure for calibrating infectious disease models that include risk structure and highlight the need to estimate this measure for other STIs.

Three-dimensional printing of models for preoperative planning and simulation of transcatheter valve replacement

In this study, we show the use of three-dimensional printing models for preoperative planning of transcatheter valve replacement in a patient with an extreme porcelain aorta. A 70-year-old man with severe aortic stenosis and a porcelain aorta was referred to our center for transcatheter aortic valve replacement. Unfortunately, the patient died after the procedure because of a potential ischemic event. Therefore, we decided to fabricate three-dimensional models to evaluate the potential effects of these constructs for previous surgical planning and simulation of the transcatheter valve replacement.

Pancreatic carcinoma, pancreatitis, and healthy controls: metabolite models in a three-class diagnostic dilemma

Metabolomics as one of the most rapidly growing technologies in the "-omics" field denotes the comprehensive analysis of low molecular-weight compounds and their pathways. Cancer-specific alterations of the metabolome can be detected by high-throughput mass-spectrometric metabolite profiling and serve as a considerable source of new markers for the early differentiation of malignant diseases as well as their distinction from benign states. However, a comprehensive framework for the statistical evaluation of marker panels in a multi-class setting has not yet been established. We collected serum samples of 40 pancreatic carcinoma patients, 40 controls, and 23 pancreatitis patients according to standard protocols and generated amino acid profiles by routine mass-spectrometry. In an intrinsic three-class bioinformatic approach we compared these profiles, evaluated their selectivity and computed multi-marker panels combined with the conventional tumor marker CA 19-9. Additionally, we tested for non-inferiority and superiority to determine the diagnostic surplus value of our multi-metabolite marker panels. Compared to CA 19-9 alone, the combined amino acid-based metabolite panel had a superior selectivity for the discrimination of healthy controls, pancreatitis, and pancreatic carcinoma patients [Formula: see text] We combined highly standardized samples, a three-class study design, a high-throughput mass-spectrometric technique, and a comprehensive bioinformatic framework to identify metabolite panels selective for all three groups in a single approach. Our results suggest that metabolomic profiling necessitates appropriate evaluation strategies and-despite all its current limitations-can deliver marker panels with high selectivity even in multi-class settings.

Overview of the pathology of three widely used animal models of acute lung injury

Acute lung injury (ALI) and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) are syndromes of acute diffuse damage to the pulmonary parenchyma by a variety of local or systemic insults. Increased alveolar capillary membrane permeability was recognized as the common end organ injury and a central feature in all forms of ALI/ARDS. Although great strides have been made in understanding the pathogenesis of ALI/ARDS and in intensive care medicine, the treatment approach to ARDS is still relying on ventilatory and cardiovascular support based on the recognition of the clinical picture. In the course of evaluating novel treatment approaches to ARDS, 3 models of ALI induced in different species, i.e. the surfactant washout lavage model, the oleic acid intravenous injection model and the endotoxin injection model, were widely used. This review gives an overview of the pathological characteristics of these models from studies in pigs, dogs or sheep. We believe that a good morphological description of these models, both spatially and temporally, will help us gain a better understanding of the real pathophysiological picture and apply these models more accurately and liberally in evaluating novel treatment approaches to ARDS.

Climate-induced interannual variability of marine primary and export production in three global coupled climate carbon cycle models

Fully coupled climate carbon cycle models are sophisticated tools that are used to predict future climate change and its impact on the land and ocean carbon cycles. These models should be able to adequately represent natural variability, requiring model validation by observations. The present study focuses on the ocean carbon cycle component, in particular the spatial and temporal variability in net primary productivity (PP) and export production (EP) of particulate organic carbon (POC). Results from three coupled climate carbon cycle models (IPSL, MPIM, NCAR) are compared with observation-based estimates derived from satellite measurements of ocean colour and results from inverse modelling (data assimilation). Satellite observations of ocean colour have shown that temporal variability of PP on the global scale is largely dominated by the permanently stratified, low-latitude ocean (Behrenfeld et al., 2006) with stronger stratification (higher sea surface temperature; SST) being associated with negative PP anomalies. Results from all three coupled models confirm the role of the low-latitude, permanently stratified ocean for anomalies in globally integrated PP, but only one model (IPSL) also reproduces the inverse relationship between stratification (SST) and PP. An adequate representation of iron and macronutrient co-limitation of phytoplankton growth in the tropical ocean has shown to be the crucial mechanism determining the capability of the models to reproduce observed interactions between climate and PP.

Cost-effectiveness of different strategies to monitor adults on antiretroviral treatment: a combined analysis of three mathematical models

Background: WHO's 2013 revisions to its Consolidated Guidelines on antiretroviral drugs recommend routine viral load monitoring, rather than clinical or immunological monitoring, as the preferred monitoring approach on the basis of clinical evidence. However, HIV programmes in resource-limited settings require guidance on the most cost-effective use of resources in view of other competing priorities such as expansion of antiretroviral therapy coverage. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of alternative patient monitoring strategies. Methods: We evaluated a range of monitoring strategies, including clinical, CD4 cell count, and viral load monitoring, alone and together, at different frequencies and with different criteria for switching to second-line therapies. We used three independently constructed and validated models simultaneously. We estimated costs on the basis of resource use projected in the models and associated unit costs; we quantified impact as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. We compared alternatives using incremental cost-effectiveness analysis. Findings: All models show that clinical monitoring delivers significant benefit compared with a hypothetical baseline scenario with no monitoring or switching. Regular CD4 cell count monitoring confers a benefit over clinical monitoring alone, at an incremental cost that makes it affordable in more settings than viral load monitoring, which is currently more expensive. Viral load monitoring without CD4 cell count every 6—12 months provides the greatest reductions in morbidity and mortality, but incurs a high cost per DALY averted, resulting in lost opportunities to generate health gains if implemented instead of increasing antiretroviral therapy coverage or expanding antiretroviral therapy eligibility. Interpretation: The priority for HIV programmes should be to expand antiretroviral therapy coverage, firstly at CD4 cell count lower than 350 cells per μL, and then at a CD4 cell count lower than 500 cells per μL, using lower-cost clinical or CD4 monitoring. At current costs, viral load monitoring should be considered only after high antiretroviral therapy coverage has been achieved. Point-of-care technologies and other factors reducing costs might make viral load monitoring more affordable in future. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, WHO.

Three-dimensional printing creates models for surgical planning of aortic valve replacement after previous coronary bypass grafting.

PURPOSE Resternotomy for aortic valve replacement in patients with previous coronary artery bypass grafting and an internal mammary artery graft may be a surgical problem. Thus, we are exploring the effect of using rapid prototyping techniques for surgical planning and intraoperative orientation during aortic valve replacement after previous coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). DESCRIPTION As a proof of concept, we studied a patient who had undergone CABG 5 years earlier. At that time the patient received a left internal mammary artery graft to the left anterior descending artery and a venous graft to the right coronary artery. Now the patient required aortic valve replacement due to symptomatic aortic valve stenosis. The left internal mammary artery bypass and the right coronary artery bypass were patent and showed good flow in the angiography. The patient was examined by 128-slice computed tomography. The image data were visualized and reconstructed. Afterwards, a replica showing the anatomic structures was fabricated using a rapid prototyping machine. EVALUATION Using data derived from 128-slice computed tomography angiography linked to proprietary software, we were able to create three-dimensional reconstructions of the vascular anatomy after the previous CABG. The models were sterilized and taken to the operating theatre for orientation during the surgical procedure. CONCLUSIONS Stereolithographic replicas are helpful for choosing treatment strategies in surgical planning and for intraoperative orientation during reoperations of patients with previous CABG.

Achieving a more realistic assessment of rockfall hazards by coupling three-dimensional process models and field-based tree-ring data

Sound knowledge of the spatial and temporal patterns of rockfalls is fundamental for the management of this very common hazard in mountain environments. Process-based, three-dimensional simulation models are nowadays capable of reproducing the spatial distribution of rockfall occurrences with reasonable accuracy through the simulation of numerous individual trajectories on highly-resolved digital terrain models. At the same time, however, simulation models typically fail to quantify the ‘real’ frequency of rockfalls (in terms of return intervals). The analysis of impact scars on trees, in contrast, yields real rockfall frequencies, but trees may not be present at the location of interest and rare trajectories may not necessarily be captured due to the limited age of forest stands. In this article, we demonstrate that the coupling of modeling with tree-ring techniques may overcome the limitations inherent to both approaches. Based on the analysis of 64 cells (40 m × 40 m) of a rockfall slope located above a 1631-m long road section in the Swiss Alps, we illustrate results from 488 rockfalls detected in 1260 trees. We illustrate that tree impact data cannot only be used (i) to reconstruct the real frequency of rockfalls for individual cells, but that they also serve (ii) the calibration of the rockfall model Rockyfor3D, as well as (iii) the transformation of simulated trajectories into real frequencies. Calibrated simulation results are in good agreement with real rockfall frequencies and exhibit significant differences in rockfall activity between the cells (zones) along the road section. Real frequencies, expressed as rock passages per meter road section, also enable quantification and direct comparison of the hazard potential between the zones. The contribution provides an approach for hazard zoning procedures that complements traditional methods with a quantification of rockfall frequencies in terms of return intervals through a systematic inclusion of impact records in trees.

Three species distribution models for the marine diatom Fragilariopsis kerguelensis of the Southern Ocean, links to NetCDF files

Fragilariopsis kerguelensis, a dominant diatom species throughout the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, is coined to be one of the main drivers of the biological silicate pump. Here, we study the distribution of this important species and expected consequences of climate change upon it, using correlative species distribution modeling and publicly available presence-only data. As experience with SDM is scarce for marine phytoplankton, this also serves as a pilot study for this organism group. We used the maximum entropy method to calculate distribution models for the diatom F. kerguelensis based on yearly and monthly environmental data (sea surface temperature, salinity, nitrate and silicate concentrations). Observation data were harvested from GBIF and the Global Diatom Database, and for further analyses also from the Hustedt Diatom Collection (BRM). The models were projected on current yearly and seasonal environmental data to study current distribution and its seasonality. Furthermore, we projected the seasonal model on future environmental data obtained from climate models for the year 2100. Projected on current yearly averaged environmental data, all models showed similar distribution patterns for F. kerguelensis. The monthly model showed seasonality, for example, a shift of the southern distribution boundary toward the north in the winter. Projections on future scenarios resulted in a moderately to negligibly shrinking distribution area and a change in seasonality. We found a substantial bias in the publicly available observation datasets, which could be reduced by additional observation records we obtained from the Hustedt Diatom Collection. Present-day distribution patterns inferred from the models coincided well with background knowledge and previous reports about F. kerguelensis distribution, showing that maximum entropy-based distribution models are suitable to map distribution patterns for oceanic planktonic organisms. Our scenario projections indicate moderate effects of climate change upon the biogeography of F. kerguelensis.

Critical behavior of three-dimensional disordered Potts models with many states

We study the 3D Disordered Potts Model with p = 5 and p = 6. Our numerical simulations (that severely slow down for increasing p) detect a very clear spin glass phase transition. We evaluate the critical exponents and the critical value of the temperature, and we use known results at lower p values to discuss how they evolve for increasing p. We do not find any sign of the presence of a transition to a ferromagnetic regime.