Standardized test to evaluate numerical weather prediction algorithms

In order to assist in comparing the computational techniques used in different models, the authors propose a standardized set of one-dimensional numerical experiments that could be completed for each model. The results of these experiments, with a simplified form of the computational representation for advection, diffusion, pressure gradient term, Coriolis term, and filter used in the models, should be reported in the peer-reviewed literature. Specific recommendations are described in this paper.

Empirical test of an agricultural landscape model: the importance of farmer preference for risk aversion and crop complexity

Developing models to predict the effects of social and economic change on agricultural landscapes is an important challenge. Model development often involves making decisions about which aspects of the system require detailed description and which are reasonably insensitive to the assumptions. However, important components of the system are often left out because parameter estimates are unavailable. In particular, measurements of the relative influence of different objectives, such as risk, environmental management, on farmer decision making, have proven difficult to quantify. We describe a model that can make predictions of land use on the basis of profit alone or with the inclusion of explicit additional objectives. Importantly, our model is specifically designed to use parameter estimates for additional objectives obtained via farmer interviews. By statistically comparing the outputs of this model with a large farm-level land-use data set, we show that cropping patterns in the United Kingdom contain a significant contribution from farmer’s preference for objectives other than profit. In particular, we found that risk aversion had an effect on the accuracy of model predictions, whereas preference for a particular number of crops grown was less important. While nonprofit objectives have frequently been identified as factors in farmers’ decision making, our results take this analysis further by demonstrating the relationship between these preferences and actual cropping patterns.

On the performance of the tick test

In financial research, the sign of a trade (or identity of trade aggressor) is not always available in the transaction dataset and it can be estimated using a simple set of rules called the tick test. In this paper we investigate the accuracy of the tick test from an analytical perspective by providing a closed formula for the performance of the prediction algorithm. By analyzing the derived equation, we provide formal arguments for the use of the tick test by proving that it is bounded to perform better than chance (50/50) and that the set of rules from the tick test provides an unbiased estimator of the trade signs. On the empirical side of the research, we compare the values from the analytical formula against the empirical performance of the tick test for fifteen heavily traded stocks in the Brazilian equity market. The results show that the formula is quite realistic in assessing the accuracy of the prediction algorithm in a real data situation.

Clinical test responses to different orthoptic exercise regimes in typical young adults

Purpose The relative efficiency of different eye exercise regimes is unclear, and in particular the influences of practice, placebo and the amount of effort required are rarely considered. This study measured conventional clinical measures after different regimes in typical young adults. Methods 156 asymptomatic young adults were directed to carry out eye exercises 3 times daily for two weeks. Exercises were directed at improving blur responses (accommodation), disparity responses (convergence), both in a naturalistic relationship, convergence in excess of accommodation, accommodation in excess of convergence, and a placebo regime. They were compared to two control groups, neither of which were given exercises, but the second of which were asked to make maximum effort during the second testing. Results Instruction set and participant effort were more effective than many exercises. Convergence exercises independent of accommodation were the most effective treatment, followed by accommodation exercises, and both regimes resulted in changes in both vergence and accommodation test responses. Exercises targeting convergence and accommodation working together were less effective than those where they were separated. Accommodation measures were prone to large instruction/effort effects and monocular accommodation facility was subject to large practice effects. Conclusions Separating convergence and accommodation exercises seemed more effective than exercising both systems concurrently and suggests that stimulation of accommodation and convergence may act in an additive fashion to aid responses. Instruction/effort effects are large and should be carefully controlled if claims for the efficacy of any exercise regime are to be made.

Partitions selection strategy for set of clustering solutions

Clustering is a difficult task: there is no single cluster definition and the data can have more than one underlying structure. Pareto-based multi-objective genetic algorithms (e.g., MOCK Multi-Objective Clustering with automatic K-determination and MOCLE-Multi-Objective Clustering Ensemble) were proposed to tackle these problems. However, the output of such algorithms can often contains a high number of partitions, becoming difficult for an expert to manually analyze all of them. In order to deal with this problem, we present two selection strategies, which are based on the corrected Rand, to choose a subset of solutions. To test them, they are applied to the set of solutions produced by MOCK and MOCLE in the context of several datasets. The study was also extended to select a reduced set of partitions from the initial population of MOCLE. These analysis show that both versions of selection strategy proposed are very effective. They can significantly reduce the number of solutions and, at the same time, keep the quality and the diversity of the partitions in the original set of solutions. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Continuous GRASP with a local active-set method for bound-constrained global optimization

Global optimization seeks a minimum or maximum of a multimodal function over a discrete or continuous domain. In this paper, we propose a hybrid heuristic-based on the CGRASP and GENCAN methods-for finding approximate solutions for continuous global optimization problems subject to box constraints. Experimental results illustrate the relative effectiveness of CGRASP-GENCAN on a set of benchmark multimodal test functions.

A Robust, Fully Adaptive Hybrid Level-Set/Front-Tracking Method for Two-Phase Flows with an Accurate Surface Tension Computation

We present a variable time step, fully adaptive in space, hybrid method for the accurate simulation of incompressible two-phase flows in the presence of surface tension in two dimensions. The method is based on the hybrid level set/front-tracking approach proposed in [H. D. Ceniceros and A. M. Roma, J. Comput. Phys., 205, 391400, 2005]. Geometric, interfacial quantities are computed from front-tracking via the immersed-boundary setting while the signed distance (level set) function, which is evaluated fast and to machine precision, is used as a fluid indicator. The surface tension force is obtained by employing the mixed Eulerian/Lagrangian representation introduced in [S. Shin, S. I. Abdel-Khalik, V. Daru and D. Juric, J. Comput. Phys., 203, 493-516, 2005] whose success for greatly reducing parasitic currents has been demonstrated. The use of our accurate fluid indicator together with effective Lagrangian marker control enhance this parasitic current reduction by several orders of magnitude. To resolve accurately and efficiently sharp gradients and salient flow features we employ dynamic, adaptive mesh refinements. This spatial adaption is used in concert with a dynamic control of the distribution of the Lagrangian nodes along the fluid interface and a variable time step, linearly implicit time integration scheme. We present numerical examples designed to test the capabilities and performance of the proposed approach as well as three applications: the long-time evolution of a fluid interface undergoing Rayleigh-Taylor instability, an example of bubble ascending dynamics, and a drop impacting on a free interface whose dynamics we compare with both existing numerical and experimental data.

Forecasting Brazilian inflation by its aggregate and disaggregated data: a test of predictive power by forecast horizon

This work aims to compare the forecast efficiency of different types of methodologies applied to Brazilian Consumer inflation (IPCA). We will compare forecasting models using disaggregated and aggregated data over twelve months ahead. The disaggregated models were estimated by SARIMA and will have different levels of disaggregation. Aggregated models will be estimated by time series techniques such as SARIMA, state-space structural models and Markov-switching. The forecasting accuracy comparison will be made by the selection model procedure known as Model Confidence Set and by Diebold-Mariano procedure. We were able to find evidence of forecast accuracy gains in models using more disaggregated data

Random regression models using different functions to model test-day milk yield of Brazilian Holstein cows

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Comparison between actual and predicted postoperative stair-climbing test, walk test and spirometric values in patients undergoing lung resection

OBJETIVO: Verificar se os testes: Volume Expiratório Forçado no 1º segundo (VEF1), Teste de Caminhada de 6 minutos (TC6) e Teste de Escada (TE) se alteram proporcionalmente ao pulmão funcionante ressecado. MÉTODOS: Foram incluídos pacientes candidatos a toracotomia para ressecção pulmonar. No pré-operatório (pré) e no mínimo três meses após a cirurgia (pós), realizaram espirometria, TC6 e TE. O TE foi realizado em escada com 12,16m de altura. O tempo para subir todos os degraus o mais rápido possível foi chamado tempo de escada (tTE). Os cálculos dos valores dos testes preditos para o pós-operatório (ppo) foram realizados conforme o número de segmentos funcionantes perdidos. Os valores pré, ppo e pós foram comparados entre si para cada teste. Estatística: foi utilizada a análise de variância para medidas repetidas (ANOVA), com significância de 5%. RESULTADOS: Foram estudados 40 pacientes. A ressecção pulmonar variou desde o ganho de dois segmentos funcionantes até a perda de 9. Os valores pré, ppo e pós foram respectivamente: VEF1 -pré = 2,6±0,8L, ppo = 2,3±0,8L, pós = 2,3±0,8L (VEF1pré > VEF1ppo = VEF1pós), TC6-pré = 604±63m, ppo = 529±103m, pós = 599±74m (TC6pré = TC6pós > TC6ppo), tTE-pré = 32,9±7,6s, ppo = 37,8±12,1s, pós = 33,7±8,5s (tTEpré = tTEpós < tTEppo). CONCLUSÃO: Nas ressecções pulmonares, este grupo de pacientes perdeu função pulmonar medida através da espirometria, mas não perdeu a capacidade de exercício, medida através dos testes de escada e caminhada.

A set of polymorphic microsatellite loci for Vriesea gigantea and Alcantarea imperialis (Bromeliaceae) and cross-amplification in other bromeliad species

Fifteen polymorphic microsatellite markers were isolated and characterized in two species of Bromeliaceae: Vriesea gigantea and Alcantarea imperialis. The number of alleles observed for each locus ranged from three to 16. The loci will be used for studies of the genetic structure of natural populations, reproductive biology, and evolutionary relationships among and within these genera. A cross-amplification test in 22 taxa suggests that the markers will be useful for similar applications in numerous other bromeliad species.

The STATFLUX code: a statistical method for calculation of flow and set of parameters, based on the Multiple-Compartment Biokinetical Model

The code STATFLUX, implementing a new and simple statistical procedure for the calculation of transfer coefficients in radionuclide transport to animals and plants, is proposed. The method is based on the general multiple-compartment model, which uses a system of linear equations involving geometrical volume considerations. Flow parameters were estimated by employing two different least-squares procedures: Derivative and Gauss-Marquardt methods, with the available experimental data of radionuclide concentrations as the input functions of time. The solution of the inverse problem, which relates a given set of flow parameter with the time evolution of concentration functions, is achieved via a Monte Carlo Simulation procedure.Program summaryTitle of program: STATFLUXCatalogue identifier: ADYS_v1_0Program summary URL: http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/ADYS_v1_0Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University of Belfast, N. IrelandLicensing provisions: noneComputer for which the program is designed and others on which it has been tested: Micro-computer with Intel Pentium III, 3.0 GHzInstallation: Laboratory of Linear Accelerator, Department of Experimental Physics, University of São Paulo, BrazilOperating system: Windows 2000 and Windows XPProgramming language used: Fortran-77 as implemented in Microsoft Fortran 4.0. NOTE: Microsoft Fortran includes non-standard features which are used in this program. Standard Fortran compilers such as, g77, f77, ifort and NAG95, are not able to compile the code and therefore it has not been possible for the CPC Program Library to test the program.Memory, required to execute with typical data: 8 Mbytes of RAM memory and 100 MB of Hard disk memoryNo. of bits in a word: 16No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 6912No. of bytes in distributed Program, including test data, etc.: 229 541Distribution format: tar.gzNature of the physical problem: the investigation of transport mechanisms for radioactive substances, through environmental pathways, is very important for radiological protection of populations. One such pathway, associated with the food chain, is the grass-animal-man sequence. The distribution of trace elements in humans and laboratory animals has been intensively studied over the past 60 years [R.C. Pendlenton, C.W. Mays, R.D. Lloyd, A.L. Brooks, Differential accumulation of iodine-131 from local fallout in people and milk, Health Phys. 9 (1963) 1253-1262]. In addition, investigations on the incidence of cancer in humans, and a possible causal relationship to radioactive fallout, have been undertaken [E.S. Weiss, M.L. Rallison, W.T. London, W.T. Carlyle Thompson, Thyroid nodularity in southwestern Utah school children exposed to fallout radiation, Amer. J. Public Health 61 (1971) 241-249; M.L. Rallison, B.M. Dobyns, F.R. Keating, J.E. Rall, F.H. Tyler, Thyroid diseases in children, Amer. J. Med. 56 (1974) 457-463; J.L. Lyon, M.R. Klauber, J.W. Gardner, K.S. Udall, Childhood leukemia associated with fallout from nuclear testing, N. Engl. J. Med. 300 (1979) 397-402]. From the pathways of entry of radionuclides in the human (or animal) body, ingestion is the most important because it is closely related to life-long alimentary (or dietary) habits. Those radionuclides which are able to enter the living cells by either metabolic or other processes give rise to localized doses which can be very high. The evaluation of these internally localized doses is of paramount importance for the assessment of radiobiological risks and radiological protection. The time behavior of trace concentration in organs is the principal input for prediction of internal doses after acute or chronic exposure. The General Multiple-Compartment Model (GMCM) is the powerful and more accepted method for biokinetical studies, which allows the calculation of concentration of trace elements in organs as a function of time, when the flow parameters of the model are known. However, few biokinetics data exist in the literature, and the determination of flow and transfer parameters by statistical fitting for each system is an open problem.Restriction on the complexity of the problem: This version of the code works with the constant volume approximation, which is valid for many situations where the biological half-live of a trace is lower than the volume rise time. Another restriction is related to the central flux model. The model considered in the code assumes that exist one central compartment (e.g., blood), that connect the flow with all compartments, and the flow between other compartments is not included.Typical running time: Depends on the choice for calculations. Using the Derivative Method the time is very short (a few minutes) for any number of compartments considered. When the Gauss-Marquardt iterative method is used the calculation time can be approximately 5-6 hours when similar to 15 compartments are considered. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A set of linear equations to calculate the steady-state operation of an electrical distribution system

In this paper, the calculation of the steady-state operation of a radial/meshed electrical distribution system (EDS) through solving a system of linear equations (non-iterative load flow) is presented. The constant power type demand of the EDS is modeled through linear approximations in terms of real and imaginary parts of the voltage taking into account the typical operating conditions of the EDS's. To illustrate the use of the proposed set of linear equations, a linear model for the optimal power flow with distributed generator is presented. Results using some test and real systems show the excellent performance of the proposed methodology when is compared with conventional methods. © 2011 IEEE.

A test of the utility of DNA barcoding in the radiation of the freshwater stingray genus Potamotrygon (Potamotrygonidae, Myliobatiformes)

DNA barcoding is a recently proposed global standard in taxonomy based on DNA sequences. The two main goals of DNA barcoding methodology are assignment of specimens to a species and discovery of new species. There are two main underlying assumptions: i) reciprocal monophyly of species, and ii) intraspecific divergence is always less than interspecific divergence. Here we present a phylogenetic analysis of the family Potamotrygonidae based on mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase I gene, sampling 10 out of the 18 to 20 valid species including two non-described species. Potamotrygonidae systematics is still not fully resolved with several still-to-be-described species while some other species are difficult to delimit due to overlap in morphological characters and because of sharing a complex color patterns. Our results suggest that the family passed through a process of rapid speciation and that the species Potamotrygon motoro, P. scobina, and P. orbignyi share haplotypes extensively. Our results suggest that systems of identification of specimens based on DNA sequences, together with morphological and/or ecological characters, can aid taxonomic studies, but delimitation of new species based on threshold values of genetic distances are overly simplistic and misleading.

Effect of Resin Cement Type on the Microtensile Bond Strength to Lithium Disilicate Ceramic and Dentin Using Different Test Assemblies

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)