Artificial neural network modeling for surface roughness prediction in cylindrical grinding of Al‐SiCp metal matrix composites and ANOVA analysis

Metal matrix composites (MMC) having aluminium (Al) in the matrix phase and silicon carbide particles (SiCp) in reinforcement phase, ie Al‐SiCp type MMC, have gained popularity in the re‐cent past. In this competitive age, manufacturing industries strive to produce superior quality products at reasonable price. This is possible by achieving higher productivity while performing machining at optimum combinations of process variables. The low weight and high strength MMC are found suitable for variety of components

Structural And Surface Morphological Investigation Of Formation Stages Of Highly (002) Oriented Zno Films On Glass Substrates By Spray Pyrolysis Method

ZnO thin films were coated on amorphous glass substrate at various temperatures in the range 160-500 0C by spray pyrolysis method. The as deposited films were characterised by using XRD and SEM. Wurtzite phase of ZnO was formed at a substrate temperature of 400 0C, highly oriented (002) phase was developed with respect to increase of substrate temperature from 450 to 500 0C. Morphological and growth mode of these films were analyzed with respect to structural orientation of films from wurtzite to highly (002) oriented phase. Present study reveals that substrate temperature was one of the important parameters which determine the crystalline quality, population of defects, grain size, orientation and morphology of the films

Biennial Metal Discrepancy In The Surface Sediment Of Cochin Estuarine System

This study gave the first report on the biennial metal divergence in the sediments of Cochin Estuarine system (CES). Surface sediments from 6 prominent regions of CES were sampled in 2009 and 2011 for the geochemical and environmental assessment of trace metals (Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Pb Fe, Mg, Mn, Ni and Zn).Besides texture, total organic carbon (TOC) and CHNS were also done. The contamination and risk assessment were performed by determining geochemical indices. Comparison with sediment quality guidelines were done to assess the probability for ecotoxicological threat to the estuary. Results showed that the measured heavy metals had varied spatial distribution patterns, indicating that they had complex origins and controlling factors

Estimation of Effective Impervious Surface Area of Cochin using Satellite Images

Urbanization refers to the process in which an increasing proportion of a population lives in cities and suburbs. Urbanization fuels the alteration of the Land use/Land cover pattern of the region including increase in built-up area, leading to imperviousness of the ground surface. With increasing urbanization and population pressures; the impervious areas in the cities are increasing fast. An impervious surface refers to an anthropogenic ally modified surface that prevents water from infiltrating into the soil. Surface imperviousness mapping is important for the studies related to water cycling, water quality, soil erosion, flood water drainage, non-point source pollution, urban heat island effect and urban hydrology. The present study estimates the Total Impervious Area (TIA) of the city of Kochi using high resolution satellite image (LISS IV, 5m. resolution). Additionally the study maps the Effective Impervious Area (EIA) by coupling the capabilities of GIS and Remote Sensing. Land use/Land cover map of the study area was prepared from the LISS IV image acquired for the year 2012. The classes were merged to prepare a map showing pervious and impervious area. Supervised Maximum Likelihood Classification (Supervised MLC),which is a simple but accurate method for image classification, is used in calculating TIA and an overall classification accuracy of 86.33% was obtained. Water bodies are 100% pervious, whereas urban built up area are 100% impervious. Further based on percentage of imperviousness, the Total Impervious Area is categorized into various classes

Adsorption of element 112 on a Au surface

Während der letzten 20 Jahre hat sich das Periodensystem bis zu den Elementen 114 und 116 erweitert. Diese sind kernphysikalisch nachgewiesen, so dass jetzt die chemische Untersuchung an erster Selle steht. Nachdem sich das Periodensystem bis zum Element 108 so verhält, wie man es dem Periodensystem nach annimmt, wird in dieser Arbeit die Chemie des Elements 112 untersucht. Dabei geht es um die Adsorptionsenergie auf einer Gold-Ober fläche, weil dies der physikalisch/chemische Prozess ist, der bei der Analyse angewandt wird. Die Methode, die in dieser Arbeit angwandt wird, ist die relativistische Dichtefunktionalmethode. Im ersten Teil wird das Vielkörperproblem in allgemeiner Form behandelt, und im zweiten die grundlegenden Eigenschaften und Formulierungen der Dichtefunktionaltheorie. Die Arbeit beschreibt zwei prinzipiell unterschiedliche Ansätze, wie die Adsorptionsenergie berechnet werden kann. Zum einen ist es die sogenannte Clustermethode, bei der ein Atom auf ein relativ kleines Cluster aufgebracht und dessen Adsorptionsenergie berechnet wird. Wenn es gelingt, die Konvergenz mit der Größe des Clusters zu erreichen, sollte dies zu einem Wert für die Adsorptionsenergie führen. Leider zeigt sich in den Rechnungen, dass aufgrund des zeitlichen Aufwandes die Konvergenz für die Clusterrechnungen nicht erreicht wird. Es werden sehr ausführlich die drei verschiedenen Adsorptionsplätze, die Top-, die Brücken- und die Muldenposition, berechnet. Sehr viel mehr Erfolg erzielt man mit der Einbettungsmethode, bei der ein kleiner Cluster von vielen weiteren Atomen an den Positionen, die sie im Festkörpers auf die Adsorptionsenergie soweit sichergestellt ist, dass physikalisch-chemisch gute Ergebnisse erzielt werden. Alle hier gennanten Rechnungen sowohl mit der Cluster- wie mit der Einbettungsmethode verlangen sehr, sehr lange Rechenzeiten, die, wie oben bereits erwähnt, nicht zu einer Konvergenz für die Clusterrechnungen ausreichten. In der Arbeit wird bei allen Rechnungen sehr detailliert auf die Abhängigkeit von den möglichen Basissätzen eingegangen, die ebenfalls in entscheidender Weise zur Länge und Qualität der Rechnungen beitragen. Die auskonvergierten Rechnungen werden in der Form von Potentialkurven, Density of States (DOS), Overlap Populations sowie Partial Crystal Overlap Populations analysiert. Im Ergebnis zeigt sich, dass die Adsoptionsenergie für das Element 112 auf einer Goldoberfläche ca. 0.2 eV niedriger ist als die Adsorption von Quecksilber auf der gleichen Ober fläche. Mit diesem Ergebnis haben die experimentellen Kernchemiker einen Wert an der Hand, mit dem sie eine Anhaltspunkt haben, wo sie bei den Messungen die wenigen zu erwartenden Ereignisse finden können.

Quality oriented drying of Lemon Balm (Melissa officinalis L.)

Heilkräuter sind während des Trocknungsprozesses zahlreichen Einflüssen ausgesetzt, welche die Qualität des Endproduktes entscheidend beeinflussen. Diese Forschungsarbeit beschäftigt sich mit der Trocknung von Zitronenmelisse (Melissa officinalis .L) zu einem qualitativ hochwertigen Endprodukt. Es werden Strategien zur Trocknung vorgeschlagen, die experimentelle und mathematische Aspekte mit einbeziehen, um bei einer adäquaten Produktivität die erforderlichen Qualitätsmerkmale im Hinblick auf Farbeänderung und Gehalt an ätherischen Ölen zu erzielen. Getrocknete Zitronenmelisse kann zurzeit, auf Grund verschiedener Probleme beim Trocknungsvorgang, den hohen Qualitätsanforderungen des Marktes nicht immer genügen. Es gibt keine standardisierten Informationen zu den einzelnen und komplexen Trocknungsparametern. In der Praxis beruht die Trocknung auf Erfahrungswerten, bzw. werden Vorgehensweisen bei der Trocknung anderer Pflanzen kopiert, und oftmals ist die Trocknung nicht reproduzierbar, oder beruht auf subjektiven Annäherungen. Als Folge dieser nicht angepassten Wahl der Trocknungsparameter entstehen oftmals Probleme wie eine Übertrocknung, was zu erhöhten Bruchverlusten der Blattmasse führt, oder eine zu geringe Trocknung, was wiederum einen zu hohen Endfeuchtegehalt im Produkt zur Folge hat. Dies wiederum mündet zwangsläufig in einer nicht vertretbaren Farbänderung und einen übermäßigen Verlust an ätherischen Ölen. Auf Grund der unterschiedlichen thermischen und mechanischen Eigenschaften von Blättern und Stängel, ist eine ungleichmäßige Trocknung die Regel. Es wird außerdem eine unnötig lange Trocknungsdauer beobachtet, die zu einem erhöhten Energieverbrauch führt. Das Trocknen in solaren Tunneln Trocknern bringt folgendes Problem mit sich: wegen des ungeregelten Strahlungseinfalles ist es schwierig die Trocknungstemperatur zu regulieren. Ebenso beeinflusst die Strahlung die Farbe des Produktes auf Grund von photochemischen Reaktionen. Zusätzlich erzeugen die hohen Schwankungen der Strahlung, der Temperatur und der Luftfeuchtigkeit instabile Bedingungen für eine gleichmäßige und kontrollierbare Trocknung. In Anbetracht der erwähnten Probleme werden folgende Forschungsschwerpunkte in dieser Arbeit gesetzt: neue Strategien zur Verbesserung der Qualität werden entwickelt, mit dem Ziel die Trocknungszeit und den Energieverbrauch zu verringern. Um eine Methodik vorzuschlagen, die auf optimalen Trocknungsparameter beruht, wurden Temperatur und Luftfeuchtigkeit als Variable in Abhängigkeit der Trocknungszeit, des ätherischer Ölgehaltes, der Farbänderung und der erforderliche Energie betrachtet. Außerdem wurden die genannten Parametern und deren Auswirkungen auf die Qualitätsmerkmale in solaren Tunnel Trocknern analysiert. Um diese Ziele zu erreichen, wurden unterschiedliche Ansätze verfolgt. Die Sorption-Isothermen und die Trocknungskinetik von Zitronenmelisse und deren entsprechende Anpassung an verschiedene mathematische Modelle wurden erarbeitet. Ebenso wurde eine alternative gestaffelte Trocknung in gestufte Schritte vorgenommen, um die Qualität des Endproduktes zu erhöhen und gleichzeitig den Gesamtenergieverbrauch zu senken. Zusätzlich wurde ein statistischer Versuchsplan nach der CCD-Methode (Central Composite Design) und der RSM-Methode (Response Surface Methodology) vorgeschlagen, um die gewünschten Qualitätsmerkmalen und den notwendigen Energieeinsatz in Abhängigkeit von Lufttemperatur und Luftfeuchtigkeit zu erzielen. Anhand der gewonnenen Daten wurden Regressionsmodelle erzeugt, und das Verhalten des Trocknungsverfahrens wurde beschrieben. Schließlich wurde eine statistische DOE-Versuchsplanung (design of experiments) angewandt, um den Einfluss der Parameter auf die zu erzielende Produktqualität in einem solaren Tunnel Trockner zu bewerten. Die Wirkungen der Beschattung, der Lage im Tunnel, des Befüllungsgrades und der Luftgeschwindigkeit auf Trocknungszeit, Farbänderung und dem Gehalt an ätherischem Öl, wurde analysiert. Ebenso wurden entsprechende Regressionsmodelle bei der Anwendung in solaren Tunneltrocknern erarbeitet. Die wesentlichen Ergebnisse werden in Bezug auf optimale Trocknungsparameter in Bezug auf Qualität und Energieverbrauch analysiert.

Adsorption kinetic investigations of phthalocyanine derivatives self assembled monolayers (SAMs) on gold: Temperature influence on the SAM formation process and quality

The ordered nano-structured surfaces, like self-assembled monolayers (SAMs) are of a great scientific interest, due to the low cost, simplicity, and versatility of this method. SAMs found numerous of applications in molecular electronics, biochemistry and optical devices. Phthalocyanine (Pc) complexes are of particular interest for the SAM preparation. These molecules exhibit fascinating physical properties and are chemically and thermally stable. Moreover their complex structure is advantageous for the fabrication of switchable surfaces. In this work the adsorption process of Pcs derivatives, namely, subphthalocyanines (SubPcB) and terbium (2TbPc) sandwich complexes on gold has been investigated. The influence of the molecular concentration, chain length of peripheral groups, and temperature on the film formation process has been examined using a number of techniques. The SAMs formation process has been followed in situ and in real time by means of second harmonic generation (SHG) and surface plasmon resonance (SPR) spectroscopy. To investigate the quality of the SAMs prepared at different temperatures atomic force microscopy (AFM) and X-Ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS)measurements were performed. Valuable information about SubPcB and 2TbPc adsorbtion process has been obtained in the frame of this work. The kinetic data, obtained with SHG and SPR, shows the best conformance with the first order Langmuir kinetic model. Comparing SHG and SPR results, it has been found, that the film formation occurs faster than the formation of chemical bonds. Such, the maximum amount of molecules on the surface is reached after 6 min for SubPcB and 30 min for 2TbPc. However, at this time the amount of formed chemicals bonds is only 10% and 40% for SubPcB and 2TbPc, respectively. The most intriguing result, among others, was obtained at T = 2 °C, where the formation of the less dense SAMs have been detected with SHG.However, analyzing XPS and AFM data, it has been revealed, that there is the same amount of molecules on the surface at both temperature T = 2 °C, and T = 21 °C, but the amount of formed chemicals bond is different. At T = 2 °C molecules form aggregates, therefore many of available anchor groups stay unattached.

Stability lobes diagram identification and surface roughness monitoring in milling processes

La millora de la productivitat i la qualitat són indubtablement dues de les principals exigències del sector productiu modern i factors clau per la competitivitat i la supervivència. Dins aquest sector,la fabricació per arrancada de material juga encara avui en dia un paper protagonista tot i l'aparició de noves tècniques de conformat per addició.Indústries com l'aeronàutica, l'automobilística,la del motlle o l'energètica, depenen en bona part de les prestacions de les màquines-eina. Aquesta Tesi aborda dos aspectes rellevants quan es tracta de millorar de la productivitat i la qualitat del sector productiu: el problema del fimbrament, més conegut per la denominació anglosaxona chatter,i la monitorització de la rugositat superficial en el mecanitzat a alta velocitat.

The water quality of the River Carnon, west Cornwall, November 1992 to March 1994: the impacts of Wheal Jane discharges

In January 1992, there was a major pollutant event for the River Canon and downstream with its confluence to the River Fal and the Fal estuary in the west Cornwall. This incident was associated with the discharge of several million gallons of highly polluted water from the abandoned Wheal Jane tin mine that also extracted Ag, Cu and Zn ore. Later that year, the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CBH; then Institute of Hydrology) Wallingford undertook daily monitoring of the River Canon for a range of major, minor and trace elements to assess the nature and the dynamics of the pollutant discharges. These data cover an 18-month period when there remained major water-quality problems after the initial phase of surface water contamination. Here, a summary is provided of the water quality found, as a backdrop to set against subsequent remediation. Two types of water-quality determinant grouping were observed. The first type comprises the determinants B, Cs, Ca, Li, K, Na, SO4, Rb and Sr, and their concentrations are positively correlated with each other but inversely correlated with flow. This type of water-quality determinant shows variations in concentration that broadly link to the normal hydrogeochemical processes within the catchment, with limited confounding issues associated with mine drainage. The second type of water-quality determinant comprises Al, Be, Cd, Ce, Co, Cu, Fe, La, Pb, Pr, Nd, Ni, Si, Sb, U, Y and Zn, and concentrations for all this group are positively correlated. The determinants in this second group all have concentrations that are negatively correlated with pH. This group links primarily to pollutant mine discharge. The water-quality variations in the River Camon are described in relation to these two distinct hydrogeochemical groupings. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Integrated modelling of climate change impacts on water resources and quality in a lowland catchment: River Kennet, UK

An integrated approach to climate change impact assessment is explored by linking established models of regional climate (SDSM), water resources (CATCHMOD) and water quality (INCA) within a single framework. A case study of the River Kennet illustrates how the system can be used to investigate aspects of climate change uncertainty, deployable water resources, and water quality dynamics in upper and lower reaches of the drainage network. The results confirm the large uncertainty in climate change scenarios and freshwater impacts due to the choice of general circulation model (GCM). This uncertainty is shown to be greatest during summer months as evidenced by large variations between GCM-derived projections of future tow river flows, deployable yield from groundwater, severity of nutrient flushing episodes, and Long-term trends in surface water quality. Other impacts arising from agricultural land-use reform or delivery of EU Water Framework Directive objectives under climate change could be evaluated using the same framework. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A new method for evaluating regional air quality forecasts

A Kriging interpolation method is combined with an object-based evaluation measure to assess the ability of the UK Met Office's dispersion and weather prediction models to predict the evolution of a plume of tracer as it was transported across Europe. The object-based evaluation method, SAL, considers aspects of the Structure, Amplitude and Location of the pollutant field. The SAL method is able to quantify errors in the predicted size and shape of the pollutant plume, through the structure component, the over- or under-prediction of the pollutant concentrations, through the amplitude component, and the position of the pollutant plume, through the location component. The quantitative results of the SAL evaluation are similar for both models and close to a subjective visual inspection of the predictions. A negative structure component for both models, throughout the entire 60 hour plume dispersion simulation, indicates that the modelled plumes are too small and/or too peaked compared to the observed plume at all times. The amplitude component for both models is strongly positive at the start of the simulation, indicating that surface concentrations are over-predicted by both models for the first 24 hours, but modelled concentrations are within a factor of 2 of the observations at later times. Finally, for both models, the location component is small for the first 48 hours after the start of the tracer release, indicating that the modelled plumes are situated close to the observed plume early on in the simulation, but this plume location error grows at later times. The SAL methodology has also been used to identify differences in the transport of pollution in the dispersion and weather prediction models. The convection scheme in the weather prediction model is found to transport more pollution vertically out of the boundary layer into the free troposphere than the dispersion model convection scheme resulting in lower pollutant concentrations near the surface and hence a better forecast for this case study.

Report of the 2010 assessment of the scientific assessment panel: future ozone and its impact on surface UV

SCIENTIFIC SUMMARY Globally averaged total column ozone has declined over recent decades due to the release of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) into the atmosphere. Now, as a result of the Montreal Protocol, ozone is expected to recover from the effects of ODSs as ODS abundances decline in the coming decades. However, a number of factors in addition to ODSs have led to and will continue to lead to changes in ozone. Discriminating between the causes of past and projected ozone changes is necessary, not only to identify the progress in ozone recovery from ODSs, but also to evaluate the effectiveness of climate and ozone protection policy options. Factors Affecting Future Ozone and Surface Ultraviolet Radiation • At least for the next few decades, the decline of ODSs is expected to be the major factor affecting the anticipated increase in global total column ozone. However, several factors other than ODS will affect the future evolution of ozone in the stratosphere. These include changes in (i) stratospheric circulation and temperature due to changes in long-lived greenhouse gas (GHG) abundances, (ii) stratospheric aerosol loading, and (iii) source gases of highly reactive stratospheric hydrogen and nitrogen compounds. Factors that amplify the effects of ODSs on ozone (e.g., stratospheric aerosols) will likely decline in importance as ODSs are gradually eliminated from the atmosphere. • Increases in GHG emissions can both positively and negatively affect ozone. Carbon dioxide (CO2)-induced stratospheric cooling elevates middle and upper stratospheric ozone and decreases the time taken for ozone to return to 1980 levels, while projected GHG-induced increases in tropical upwelling decrease ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere and increase ozone in the extratropics. Increases in nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) concentrations also directly impact ozone chemistry but the effects are different in different regions. • The Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) is projected to strengthen over the 21st century and thereby affect ozone amounts. Climate models consistently predict an acceleration of the BDC or, more specifically, of the upwelling mass flux in the tropical lower stratosphere of around 2% per decade as a consequence of GHG abundance increases. A stronger BDC would decrease the abundance of tropical lower stratospheric ozone, increase poleward transport of ozone, and could reduce the atmospheric lifetimes of long-lived ODSs and other trace gases. While simulations showing faster ascent in the tropical lower stratosphere to date are a robust feature of chemistry-climate models (CCMs), this has not been confirmed by observations and the responsible mechanisms remain unclear. • Substantial ozone losses could occur if stratospheric aerosol loading were to increase in the next few decades, while halogen levels are high. Stratospheric aerosol increases may be caused by sulfur contained in volcanic plumes entering the stratosphere or from human activities. The latter might include attempts to geoengineer the climate system by enhancing the stratospheric aerosol layer. The ozone losses mostly result from enhanced heterogeneous chemistry on stratospheric aerosols. Enhanced aerosol heating within the stratosphere also leads to changes in temperature and circulation that affect ozone. • Surface ultraviolet (UV) levels will not be affected solely by ozone changes but also by the effects of climate change and by air quality change in the troposphere. These tropospheric effects include changes in clouds, tropospheric aerosols, surface reflectivity, and tropospheric sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). The uncertainties in projections of these factors are large. Projected increases in tropospheric ozone are more certain and may lead to reductions in surface erythemal (“sunburning”) irradiance of up to 10% by 2100. Changes in clouds may lead to decreases or increases in surface erythemal irradiance of up to 15% depending on latitude. Expected Future Changes in Ozone Full ozone recovery from the effects of ODSs and return of ozone to historical levels are not synonymous. In this chapter a key target date is chosen to be 1980, in part to retain the connection to previous Ozone Assessments. Noting, however, that decreases in ozone may have occurred in some regions of the atmosphere prior to 1980, 1960 return dates are also reported. The projections reported on in this chapter are taken from a recent compilation of CCM simulations. The ozone projections, which also form the basis for the UV projections, are limited in their representativeness of possible futures since they mostly come from CCM simulations based on a single GHG emissions scenario (scenario A1B of Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2000) and a single ODS emissions scenario (adjusted A1 of the previous (2006) Ozone Assessment). Throughout this century, the vertical, latitudinal, and seasonal structure of the ozone distribution will be different from what it was in 1980. For this reason, ozone changes in different regions of the atmosphere are considered separately. • The projections of changes in ozone and surface clear-sky UV are broadly consistent with those reported on in the 2006 Assessment. • The capability of making projections and attribution of future ozone changes has been improved since the 2006 Assessment. Use of CCM simulations from an increased number of models extending through the entire period of ozone depletion and recovery from ODSs (1960–2100) as well as sensitivity simulations have allowed more robust projections of long-term changes in the stratosphere and of the relative contributions of ODSs and GHGs to those changes. • Global annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels before the middle of the century and earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading returns to 1980 levels. CCM projections suggest that this early return is primarily a result of GHG-induced cooling of the upper stratosphere because the effects of circulation changes on tropical and extratropical ozone largely cancel. Global (90°S–90°N) annually averaged total column ozone will likely return to 1980 levels between 2025 and 2040, well before the return of stratospheric halogens to 1980 levels between 2045 and 2060. • Simulated changes in tropical total column ozone from 1960 to 2100 are generally small. The evolution of tropical total column ozone in models depends on the balance between upper stratospheric increases and lower stratospheric decreases. The upper stratospheric increases result from declining ODSs and a slowing of ozone destruction resulting from GHG-induced cooling. Ozone decreases in the lower stratosphere mainly result from an increase in tropical upwelling. From 1960 until around 2000, a general decline is simulated, followed by a gradual increase to values typical of 1980 by midcentury. Thereafter, although total column ozone amounts decline slightly again toward the end of the century, by 2080 they are no longer expected to be affected by ODSs. Confidence in tropical ozone projections is compromised by the fact that simulated decreases in column ozone to date are not supported by observations, suggesting that significant uncertainties remain. • Midlatitude total column ozone is simulated to evolve differently in the two hemispheres. Over northern midlatitudes, annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 values between 2015 and 2030, while for southern midlatitudes the return to 1980 values is projected to occur between 2030 and 2040. The more rapid return to 1980 values in northern midlatitudes is linked to a more pronounced strengthening of the poleward transport of ozone due to the effects of increased GHG levels, and effects of Antarctic ozone depletion on southern midlatitudes. By 2100, midlatitude total column ozone is projected to be above 1980 values in both hemispheres. • October-mean Antarctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels after midcentury, later than in any other region, and yet earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading is projected to return to 1980 levels. The slightly earlier return of ozone to 1980 levels (2045–2060) results primarily from upper stratospheric cooling and resultant increases in ozone. The return of polar halogen loading to 1980 levels (2050–2070) in CCMs is earlier than in empirical models that exclude the effects of GHG-induced changes in circulation. Our confidence in the drivers of changes in Antarctic ozone is higher than for other regions because (i) ODSs exert a strong influence on Antarctic ozone, (ii) the effects of changes in GHG abundances are comparatively small, and (iii) projections of ODS emissions are more certain than those for GHGs. Small Antarctic ozone holes (areas of ozone <220 Dobson units, DU) could persist to the end of the 21st century. • March-mean Arctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels two to three decades before polar halogen loading returns to 1980 levels, and to exceed 1980 levels thereafter. While CCM simulations project a return to 1980 levels between 2020 and 2035, most models tend not to capture observed low temperatures and thus underestimate present-day Arctic ozone loss such that it is possible that this return date is biased early. Since the strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation through the 21st century leads to increases in springtime Arctic column ozone, by 2100 Arctic ozone is projected to lie well above 1960 levels. Uncertainties in Projections • Conclusions dependent on future GHG levels are less certain than those dependent on future ODS levels since ODS emissions are controlled by the Montreal Protocol. For the six GHG scenarios considered by a few CCMs, the simulated differences in stratospheric column ozone over the second half of the 21st century are largest in the northern midlatitudes and the Arctic, with maximum differences of 20–40 DU between the six scenarios in 2100. • There remain sources of uncertainty in the CCM simulations. These include the use of prescribed ODS mixing ratios instead of emission fluxes as lower boundary conditions, the range of sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations, missing tropospheric chemistry, model parameterizations, and model climate sensitivity. • Geoengineering schemes for mitigating climate change by continuous injections of sulfur-containing compounds into the stratosphere, if implemented, would substantially affect stratospheric ozone, particularly in polar regions. Ozone losses observed following large volcanic eruptions support this prediction. However, sporadic volcanic eruptions provide limited analogs to the effects of continuous sulfur emissions. Preliminary model simulations reveal large uncertainties in assessing the effects of continuous sulfur injections. Expected Future Changes in Surface UV. While a number of factors, in addition to ozone, affect surface UV irradiance, the focus in this chapter is on the effects of changes in stratospheric ozone on surface UV. For this reason, clear-sky surface UV irradiance is calculated from ozone projections from CCMs. • Projected increases in midlatitude ozone abundances during the 21st century, in the absence of changes in other factors, in particular clouds, tropospheric aerosols, and air pollutants, will result in decreases in surface UV irradiance. Clear-sky erythemal irradiance is projected to return to 1980 levels on average in 2025 for the northern midlatitudes, and in 2035 for the southern midlatitudes, and to fall well below 1980 values by the second half of the century. However, actual changes in surface UV will be affected by a number of factors other than ozone. • In the absence of changes in other factors, changes in tropical surface UV will be small because changes in tropical total column ozone are projected to be small. By the middle of the 21st century, the model projections suggest surface UV to be slightly higher than in the 1960s, very close to values in 1980, and slightly lower than in 2000. The projected decrease in tropical total column ozone through the latter half of the century will likely result in clear-sky surface UV remaining above 1960 levels. Average UV irradiance is already high in the tropics due to naturally occurring low total ozone columns and high solar elevations. • The magnitude of UV changes in the polar regions is larger than elsewhere because ozone changes in polar regions are larger. For the next decades, surface clear-sky UV irradiance, particularly in the Antarctic, will continue to be higher than in 1980. Future increases in ozone and decreases in clear-sky UV will occur at slower rates than those associated with the ozone decreases and UV increases that occurred before 2000. In Antarctica, surface clear-sky UV is projected to return to 1980 levels between 2040 and 2060, while in the Arctic this is projected to occur between 2020 and 2030. By 2100, October surface clear-sky erythemal irradiance in Antarctica is likely to be between 5% below to 25% above 1960 levels, with considerable uncertainty. This is consistent with multi-model-mean October Antarctic total column ozone not returning to 1960 levels by 2100. In contrast, by 2100, surface clear-sky UV in the Arctic is projected to be 0–10% below 1960 levels.

Hyperresolution global land surface modeling: meeting a grand challenge for monitoring Earth's terrestrial water

Monitoring Earth's terrestrial water conditions is critically important to many hydrological applications such as global food production; assessing water resources sustainability; and flood, drought, and climate change prediction. These needs have motivated the development of pilot monitoring and prediction systems for terrestrial hydrologic and vegetative states, but to date only at the rather coarse spatial resolutions (∼10–100 km) over continental to global domains. Adequately addressing critical water cycle science questions and applications requires systems that are implemented globally at much higher resolutions, on the order of 1 km, resolutions referred to as hyperresolution in the context of global land surface models. This opinion paper sets forth the needs and benefits for a system that would monitor and predict the Earth's terrestrial water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles. We discuss six major challenges in developing a system: improved representation of surface‐subsurface interactions due to fine‐scale topography and vegetation; improved representation of land‐atmospheric interactions and resulting spatial information on soil moisture and evapotranspiration; inclusion of water quality as part of the biogeochemical cycle; representation of human impacts from water management; utilizing massively parallel computer systems and recent computational advances in solving hyperresolution models that will have up to 109 unknowns; and developing the required in situ and remote sensing global data sets. We deem the development of a global hyperresolution model for monitoring the terrestrial water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles a “grand challenge” to the community, and we call upon the international hydrologic community and the hydrological science support infrastructure to endorse the effort.