Aplicação da Teoria do Valor Extremo e Copulas para avaliar risco de mercado de ações brasileiras

As instituições financeiras são obrigadas por acordos internacionais, como o Acordo de Basiléia, a avaliar o risco de mercado ao qual a instituição está propensa de forma a evitar possíveis contaminações de desastres financeiros em seu patrimônio. Com o intuito de capturar tais fenômenos, surge a necessidade de construir modelos que capturem com mais acurácia movimentos extremos das séries de retornos. O trabalho teve como principal objetivo aplicar a Teoria do Valor Extremo juntamente com Copulas na estimação de quantis extremos para o VaR. Ele utiliza técnicas de simulação de Monte Carlo, Teoria do Valor Extremo e Cópulas com distribuições gaussianas e t. Em contrapartida, as estimativas produzidas serão comparadas com as de um segundo modelo, chamado de simulação histórica de Monte Carlo filtrada, mais conhecida como filtered historical simulation (FHS). As técnicas serão aplicadas a um portfólio de ações de empresas brasileiras.

Reação do mercado às republicações de demonstrações contábeis no Brasil no período de 2000 a 2011

Este trabalho tem por objetivo verificar se há impacto das republicações das demonstrações contábeis das empresas com ações negociadas na Bovespa no período de 2000 a 2010, no preço de suas ações. O estudo parte do pressuposto de que o mercado Brasileiro de ações é semiforte. A metodologia utilizada nesta pesquisa foi em parte qualitativa ao descrever a amostra e suas características assim como quantitativa na forma dos testes de diferenças de média. Os resultados dos testes mostram que ao se analisar toda a amostra como um único grupo, os retornos anormais encontrados não mostraram diferença significativa em comparação com os valores esperados calculados, mas quando analisados em segmentações distintas pelo tipo de motivação à republicação, foram encontrados evidências de que há diferença significativa entre as amostras das republicações das demonstrações contábeis voluntárias e obrigatórias. Assim como também foram encontrados evidências de que pode haver diferença significativa entre as amostras segmentadas pela natureza do erro apresentado com justificativa para a republicação da demonstração contábil, tanto nos casos de mensuração, quanto classificação e reconhecimento. A mesma evidência é apresentada nos gráficos das médias dos retornos anormais calculados para este estudo.

River Lune juvenile fish stock assessment 1997 with particular reference to salmonids

This report presents data from the juvenile salmonid fish stock assessment which is part of the routine Environment Agency riverine monitoring programme. A total of 110 sites was electrofished throughout the Lune catchment between 15th July 1997 and 14th October 1997. These sites included 84 that had been previously sampled in the last comprehensive survey of the catchment, in 1991. The aim of this survey was to assess the distribution and abundance of juvenile salmon and trout in the River Lune catchment and to compare results with those of previous surveys.

River Lune juvenile fish stock assessment 2002 (annotated draft copy, Site Reports only)

This draft copy of the River Lune juvenile fish stock assessment from 2000 provides "Site Reports" from different water bodies in the Lune catchment. These Site Reports provide brief information on habitat features, fishery classification and comments on species caught and stocking. This document provides no summary or interpretation of the given data.

Report on the 1995 stock assessment of the Douglas catchment

The River Douglas has a long industrial heritage beginning in the early 18th century with its use by boats carrying goods between Wigan and Tarleton. The River and its tributaries have also historically been, and to a certain extent are still, subject to polluting inputs from the urban, agricultural and industrialised areas located within its catchment. During the early stages in the production of the River Douglas Catchment Management Plan, it became apparent that very little data existed on the populations of coarse and salmonid fish species within the River Douglas system. The data that did exist was largely anecdotal, consisting of catch reports from anglers or water bailiffs, or of dead and distressed fish following pollution incidents. This study was initiated to assess the status of coarse and salmonid fish species within the River Douglas system and so address the lack of knowledge. Eighty two sites were surveyed by electric fishing, including 14 sites using an electric fishing punt and up to four anodes. The data was analysed according to a new National Fisheries Classification Scheme. This classified the sites by the fish stock s present and compared the results with a database containing information from sites around the country that have similar habitat types. A stocking experiment was also undertaken in the River Lostock using chub reared at the Leyland Hatchery. These were marked with an identifiable blue spot in the spring of 1995 and then released into three, previously surveyed, locations in the river. These sites were then resurveyed during the summer stock assessment. This report also Site Reports with details on monitored sites, habitat features and fishery classification.

Équation de production: adaptation du modèle de Ricker à un stock de poissons exploité par différents engins

The authors have developed the method used by Pianet and Le Hir (Doc.Sci.Cent. ORSTOM Pointe-Noire, 17, 1971) for the study of albacore (Thunnus albacares) in the Pointe-Noire region. The method is based on the fact that the ratio between unit of effort and number of fish for two fishing gears is equal to the ratio of their catchability coefficients.

Report on the 2001 stock assessment of the River Darwen catchment

The River Darwen is a highly impacted Lancashire river with very little known about its fishery interest above the impassable weir at Salmesbury Bottoms. Below the weir there are populations of coarse fish around the confluence with the River Ribble. To the knowledge of local bailiff staff, prior to 1996 the fish population in the middle and upper River Darwen had never been surveyed by electric fishing. In order to address this lack of knowledge, a survey was undertaken during the summer of 1996 with the aim of evaluating the salmonid and cyprinid fish population in the river. Twenty two sites were surveyed by electric fishing between June 11th and July 11th 1996. Information was gathered on the presence and density of fish populations in the river catchment, and analysed according to the National Fisheries Classification Scheme in order to determine how these populations compare nationally with sites of similar habitat features. From this report, recommendations were made to improve and develop the fishery potential in relation to water quality and habitat prioritising areas classed as being Ashless. It was recommended that juvenile coarse fish should be stocked in the Houghton Bottoms area. This area has excellent fishery habitat and was found to contain a minor coarse fish population. Water quality in this stretch of river was thought to be good enough to establish a major coarse fish population. Fish were introduced for the first time in 1998 at Houghton Bottoms from the Agency's Leyland Fish Farm. 3000 each of Roach, Chub and Dace were introduced. Further fish introductions occurred in 2000 with the stocking of 1000 Chub, again from the Agency's Leyland Fish Farm in the Lower Darwen and Witton areas of the main river on a trial basis.

Report on the 1992 stock assessment of the Wyre catchment

The aim of this study was to assess the status of the juvenile salmonid and coarse fish populations of the Wyre catchment. Emphasis was placed on an examination of the distribution of spawning and nursery areas for salmonids within the study area and an assessment of the status of juvenile salmonid stocks. The species distribution and spawning areas for other fish species were also identified where possible and the status of the Wyre coarse fishery, downstream of Churchtown Weir, assessed. This report examines the results of stock assessment surveys carried out in the Wyre catchment between 2/06/92 and 11/08/92. Forty-six sites were surveyed from Tarnbrook Wyre (SD. 598577) and Marshaw Wyre (SD. 614541) downstream to St Michaels (SD. 465411). Flow, habitat and in-river obstructions have been shown to affect juvenile salmonid densities. A habitat description is provided for each site studied during the course of this study.

The calibration of a semi-quantitative approach to fish stock assessment in the North West Region of the NRA

(1) A total of 45 sites was sampled, each being fished using the semi-quantitative and quantitative techniques. (2) A significant relationship existed between the semi-quantitative and Quantitative results for all age groups of salmonids (R2 83.4% to 96.1%, p < 0.0001). (3) The results from each site were categorised according to an existing classification system for quantitative and semi-quantitative data. The semi-quantitative component of this system was modified using the results of this investigation. The degree of error associated with sites classified semi-quantitatively was found to be slightly less when using the modified system for 0+ salmon, > 0+ salmon and 0+ trout, ranging from 10.5% to 30%. (4) Insufficient data points were available for the analysis of coarse fish data.

German Eel Model (GEM II) for describing eel, Anguilla anguilla (L.), stock dynamics in the river Elbe system

The eel, Anguilla anguilla (L.), stock of the river Elbe severely decreased during the last decades. Detailed knowledge of the stock dynamics in freshwater and especially of the impact factors is necessary to take effective measures for stock conservation and improvement. The dynamics of the eel stock are modelled based on immigration, stocking, natural mortality and mortalities caused by fishing, angling, cormorants and hydropower plants. The model estimates the number of emigrating eel. Moreover, it enables to study the sensitivity of the estimates related to the uncertainty of the source data of the different influencing factors. The model may be used to develop management strategies and to assess the effi ciency of different management options. Zusammenfassung Der Aalbestand im Elbesystem ist in den letzten Jahrzehnten stark zur

Interactions of age-dependent mortality and selectivity functions in age-based stock assessment models

The natural mortality rate (M) of fish varies with size and age, although it is often assumed to be constant in stock assessments. Misspecification of M may bias important assessment quantities. We simulated fishery data, using an age-based population model, and then conducted stock assessments on the simulated data. Results were compared to known values. Misspecification of M had a negligible effect on the estimation of relative stock depletion; however, misspecification of M had a large effect on the estimation of parameters describing the stock recruitment relationship, age-specific selectivity, and catchability. If high M occurs in juvenile and old fish, but is misspecified in the assessment model, virgin biomass and catchability are often poorly estimated. In addition, stock recruitment relationships are often very difficult to estimate, and steepness values are commonly estimated at the upper bound (1.0) and overfishing limits tend to be biased low. Natural mortality can be estimated in assessment models if M is constant across ages or if selectivity is asymptotic. However if M is higher in old fish and selectivity is dome-shaped, M and the selectivity cannot both be adequately estimated because of strong interactions between M and selectivity.

A meta-analytic approach to quantifying scientific uncertainty in stock assessments

Quantifying scientific uncertainty when setting total allowable catch limits for fish stocks is a major challenge, but it is a requirement in the United States since changes to national fisheries legislation. Multiple sources of error are readily identifiable, including estimation error, model specification error, forecast error, and errors associated with the definition and estimation of reference points. Our focus here, however, is to quantify the influence of estimation error and model specification error on assessment outcomes. These are fundamental sources of uncertainty in developing scientific advice concerning appropriate catch levels and although a study of these two factors may not be inclusive, it is feasible with available information. For data-rich stock assessments conducted on the U.S. west coast we report approximate coefficients of variation in terminal biomass estimates from assessments based on inversion of the assessment of the model’s Hessian matrix (i.e., the asymptotic standard error). To summarize variation “among” stock assessments, as a proxy for model specification error, we characterize variation among multiple historical assessments of the same stock. Results indicate that for 17 groundfish and coastal pelagic species, the mean coefficient of variation of terminal biomass is 18%. In contrast, the coefficient of variation ascribable to model specification error (i.e., pooled among-assessment variation) is 37%. We show that if a precautionary probability of overfishing equal to 0.40 is adopted by managers, and only model specification error is considered, a 9% reduction in the overfishing catch level is indicated.

Larval abundance of summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) as a measure of recruitment and stock status

Summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) is one of the most economically and ecologically important estuarine-dependent species in the northeastern United States. The status of the population is currently a topic of controversy. Our goal was to assess the potential of using larval abundance at ingress as another fishery independent measure of spawning stock biomass or recruitment. Weekly long-term ichthyoplankton time series were analyzed from Little Egg Inlet, New Jersey (1989–2006) and Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina (1986–2004). Mean size-at-ingress and stage were similar between sites, whereas timing of ingress and abundance at ingress were not similar. Ingress primarily occurred during the fall at Little Egg Inlet and the winter at Beaufort Inlet. These findings agree with those from earlier studies in which at least two stocks (one north and one south of Cape Hatteras) were identified with different spawning periods. Larval abundance at Little Egg Inlet has increased since the late 1990s and most individuals now enter the estuary earlier during the season of ingress. Abundance at Little Egg Inlet was correlated with an increase in spawning stock biomass, presumably because spawning by larger, more abundant fish during the late 1990s and early 2000s provided increased larval supply, at least in some years. Larval abundance at ingress at Beaufort Inlet was not correlated with spawning stock biomass or with larval abundance at ingress at Little Egg Inlet, further supporting the hypothesis of at least two stocks. Larval abundance at Little Egg Inlet could be used as a fishery-independent index of spawning stock size north of Cape Hatteras in future stock assessments. Larval occurrence at Beaufort Inlet may provide information on the abundance of the stock south of Cape Hatteras, but additional stock assessment work is required.