A Bayesian approach to fuzzy hypotheses testing for the estimation of optimal age for vaccination against measles

Fuzzy Bayesian tests were performed to evaluate whether the mother`s seroprevalence and children`s seroconversion to measles vaccine could be considered as ""high"" or ""low"". The results of the tests were aggregated into a fuzzy rule-based model structure, which would allow an expert to influence the model results. The linguistic model was developed considering four input variables. As the model output, we obtain the recommended age-specific vaccine coverage. The inputs of the fuzzy rules are fuzzy sets and the outputs are constant functions, performing the simplest Takagi-Sugeno-Kang model. This fuzzy approach is compared to a classical one, where the classical Bayes test was performed. Although the fuzzy and classical performances were similar, the fuzzy approach was more detailed and revealed important differences. In addition to taking into account subjective information in the form of fuzzy hypotheses it can be intuitively grasped by the decision maker. Finally, we show that the Bayesian test of fuzzy hypotheses is an interesting approach from the theoretical point of view, in the sense that it combines two complementary areas of investigation, normally seen as competitive. (C) 2007 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Two-stage transvaginal cervical length screening for preterm birth in twin pregnancies

Aim: To compare cervical length (CL) at 18-21 and 22-25 weeks` gestation in twin pregnancies in prediction of spontaneous preterm delivery and to examine cervical shortening. Methods: Retrospective cohort study of CL measured at 18-21 and 22-25 weeks` gestation in twin pregnancies. Results: Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve revealed area of 0.64 (95% CI 0.53-0.75) and 0.80 (95% CI 0.72-0.88) for measurements at 18-21 and 22-25 weeks, respectively (P <= 0.001). Sensitivities of 33.3% and 23% and negative predicting value (NPV) of 97.3% and 86.8% for delivery at <28 and <34 weeks gestation were reached for measurements at 18-21 weeks. Sensitivities of 71.4% and 38.2% and NPV of 99.1% and 91.4% for delivery at <28 and <34 weeks` gestation were reached for measurements at 22-25 weeks. Cervical length shortening analysis showed an area under ROC curve of 0.81 (95% CI 0.73-0.89) and best cut-off was at >= 2 mm/week. Sensitivities of 80% and 60.8% and NPV of 98.9% and 90.6% for delivery at <28 and <34 weeks gestation were reached. Conclusions: In twin gestations, assessment of CL at 22-25 weeks is better than assessment at 18-21 weeks to predict preterm delivery before 34 weeks. Cervical shortening at a rate of >= 2 mm/weeks between 18 and 25 weeks gestation was a good predictor of spontaneous preterm birth in this high-risk population.

Longitudinal Follow-Up of Bipolar Disorder in Women With Premenstrual Exacerbation: Findings From STEP-BD

Objective: The impact of hormonal fluctuation during the menstrual cycle on the course of bipolar disorder is poorly understood. The authors determined the course of illness and time to relapse of bipolar disorder in prospectively followed women with premenstrual exacerbation. Method: Participants were 293 premenopause-age women with bipolar disorder who were followed prospectively for 1 year as part of the Systematic Treatment Enhancement Program for Bipolar Disorder. Frequency of mood episodes was compared between 191 women with premenstrual exacerbation (65.2%) and 102 women without. Among 129 women who were in recovered status at baseline, time to relapse was compared between 66 women with premenstrual exacerbation (51.2%) and 63 without. Results: During follow-up, the group with premenstrual exacerbation had more episodes (primarily depressive) than did the group without, but they were not more likely to meet criteria for rapid cycling during this period. In contrast, they were more likely to report rapid cycling retrospectively. Women with premenstrual exacerbation had a shorter time to relapse and were at greater risk for relapse, but this association was not significant after adjustment for retrospectively reported rapid cycling. Women with premenstrual exacerbation had more depressive and mood elevation symptoms overall. Conclusions: Women with bipolar disorder and premenstrual exacerbation have a worse course of illness, a shorter time to relapse, and greater symptom severity, but they are not more likely to meet criteria for rapid cycling. Premenstrual exacerbation may be a clinical marker predicting a more symptomatic and relapse-prone phenotype in reproductive-age women with bipolar disorder.

Hormonal Contraceptives and the Length of Their Use Are Not Independent Risk Factors for High-Risk HPV Infections or High-Grade CIN

Aims: To evaluate the role of hormonal contraceptives as a risk factor of high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV), cervical intraepithelial lesions (CIN) and cervical cancer in our multi-center population-based LAMS (Latin American Screening) study. Methods: A cohort study with >12,000 women from Brazil and Argentina using logistic regression to analyze the covariates of hormonal contraception (HOC - oral, injections, patches, implants, vaginal ring and progesterone intrauterine system) use followed by multivariate modeling for predictors of HR-HPV and CIN2+. Results: HR-HPV infection was a consistent risk factor of high-grade CIN in all three groups of women. The length of HOC use was not significantly related to high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL)+ Pap (p = 0.069), LSIL+ Pap (p = 0.781) or ASCUS+ (p = 0.231). The same was true with the length of HOC use and histology CIN3+ (p = 0.115) and CIN2+ (p = 0.515). Frequently, HOC users have previously shown more HPV-related lesions, as well as lower HPV prevalence if they were current smokers. But HOC use and time of usage were not independent risk factors of either HR-HPV infection or high-grade CIN using multiple logistic regressions. Conclusions: No evidence was found for an association between the use of HOC with an increased risk for HR-HPV infection or high-grade CIN in this cohort. Copyright (C) 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel

A method for better positioning bipolar electrodes for lower limb EMG recordings during dynamic contractions

To obtain a high quality EMG acquisition, the signal must be recorded as far away as possible from muscle innervations and tendon zones, which are known to shift during dynamic contractions. This study describes a methodology, using commercial bipolar electrodes, to identify better electrode positions for superficial EMG of lower limb muscles during dynamic contractions. Eight female volunteers participated in this study. Myoelectric signals of the vastus lateralis, gastrocnemius medialis, peroneus longus and tibialis anterior muscles were acquired during maximum isometric contractions using bipolar electrodes. The electrode positions of each muscle were selected assessing SENIAM and then, other positions were located along the length of muscle up and down the SENIAM site. The raw signal (density), the linear envelopes, the RMS value, the motor point site, the position of the IZ and its shift during dynamic contractions were taken into account to select and compare electrode positions. For vastus lateralis and peroneus longus, the best sites were 66% and 25% of muscle length, respectively (similar to SENIAM location). The position of the tibialis anterior electrodes presented the best signal at 47.5% of its length (different from SENIAM location). The position of the gastrocnemius medialis electrodes was at 38% of its length and SENIAM does not specify a precise location for signal acquisition. The proposed method should be considered as another methodological step in every EMG study to guarantee the quality of the signal and subsequent human movement interpretations. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of progressive resistance strength training on knee biomechanics during single leg step-up in persons with mild knee osteoarthritis

Background: The goal of this study was to determine if increasing strength in primary knee extensors and flexors would directly affect net knee joint moments during a common functional task in persons with knee osteoarthritis. Methods: An exploratory single sample clinical trial with pre-post treatment measures was used to study volunteers with clinical diagnosis of mild knee osteoarthritis (OA) in one knee. Subjects participated in an individually supervised training program 3 times a week for eight weeks consisting of progressive resistive exercises for knee extensors and knee flexors. Pre and post training outcome assessments included: 1. Net internal knee joint moments, 2. Electromyography of primary knee extensors and flexors, and 3. Self-report measures of knee pain and function. The distribution of lower extremity joint moments as a percent of the total support moment was also investigated. Findings: Pain, symptoms, activities of daily life, quality of life, stiffness, and function scores showed significant improvement following strength training. Knee internal valgus and hip internal rotation moments showed increasing but non-statistically significant changes post-training. There were no significant differences in muscle co-contraction activation of the Quadriceps and Hamstrings. Interpretation: While exercise continues to be an important element of OA management, the results of this study suggest improvements in function, pain, and other symptoms, as a result of strength training may not be causally related to specific biomechanical changes in net joint moments. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Single-Step EUS-Guided Endoscopic Treatment for Sterile Pancreatic Collections: A Single-Center Experience

Background and Aims: Endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) is useful for the treatment of sterile pancreatic fluid collections (PFC), either by means of transmural drainage or by complete aspiration. The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy and safety of single-step EUS-guided endoscopic approaches for treatment of sterile PFC. Patients and Methods: During a 3-year period, 77 consecutive patients with symptomatic, persistent sterile PFC were evaluated and treated with the linear EUS. We excluded patients with grossly purulent collections, chronic pseudocyst and those whose cytology diagnostic was neoplastic cyst of pancreas. 44 patients received a single 10-Fr plastic straight stent under EUS or fluoroscopic control (group I) and 33 of these underwent a single-step complete aspiration with a 19-gauge needle (group II). Results: The mean size of the sterile PFC was 48 mm in group I and 28 mm in group II (p < 0.001). Overall, endoscopic treatment was successful in 70 (90.9%) patients. The mean volume aspirated was 25 (18-65) ml. The total number of procedures was 50 in group I and 41 punctures in group II. After a mean follow-up of 64 +/- 15.6 weeks there were 6 complications 13.6%): 2 recurrences (referred to surgery), 2 developing abscesses (submitted a new EUS-guided endoscopic drainage with success), 1 perforation that died (2.2%), and 1 case of bleeding (sent to surgery) in group I. In group II there were only 6 (18.1%) recurrences (submitted a new EUS-guided aspiration). None of the patients undergoing single-step aspiration developed infections, perforation or hemorrhage. Conclusion: The recurrence of pancreatic pseudocysts after endoscopic treatment was similar, either by means of plastic stents or by complete single-step aspiration. Copyright (C) 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel

Error in body weight estimation leads to inadequate parenteral anticoagulation

Parenteral anticoagulation is a cornerstone in the management of venous and arterial thrombosis. Unfractionated heparin has a wide dose/response relationship, requiring frequent and troublesome laboratorial follow-up. Because of all these factors, low-molecular-weight heparin use has been increasing. Inadequate dosage has been pointed out as a potential problem because the use of subjectively estimated weight instead of real measured weight is common practice in the emergency department (ED). To evaluate the impact of inadequate weight estimation on enoxaparin dosage, we investigated the adequacy of anticoagulation of patients in a tertiary ED where subjective weight estimation is common practice. We obtained the estimated, informed, and measured weight of 28 patients in need of parenteral anticoagulation. Basal and steady-state (after the second subcutaneous shot of enoxaparin) anti-Xa activity was obtained as a measure of adequate anticoagulation. The patients were divided into 2 groups according the anticoagulation adequacy. From the 28 patients enrolled, 75% (group 1, n = 21) received at least 0.9 mg/kg per dose BID and 25% (group 2, n = 7) received less than 0.9 mg/kg per dose BID of enoxaparin. Only 4 (14.3%) of all patients had anti-Xa activity less than the inferior limit of the therapeutic range (<0.5 UI/mL), all of them from group 2. In conclusion, when weight estimation was used to determine the enoxaparin dosage, 25% of the patients were inadequately anticoagulated (anti-Xa activity <0.5 UI/mL) during the initial crucial phase of treatment. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Food energy content influences food portion size estimation by nutrition students

Background: Food portion size estimation involves a complex mental process that may influence food consumption evaluation. Knowing the variables that influence this process can improve the accuracy of dietary assessment. The present study aimed to evaluate the ability of nutrition students to estimate food portions in usual meals and relate food energy content with errors in food portion size estimation. Methods: Seventy-eight nutrition students, who had already studied food energy content, participated in this cross-sectional study on the estimation of food portions, organised into four meals. The participants estimated the quantity of each food, in grams or millilitres, with the food in view. Estimation errors were quantified, and their magnitude were evaluated. Estimated quantities (EQ) lower than 90% and higher than 110% of the weighed quantity (WQ) were considered to represent underestimation and overestimation, respectively. Correlation between food energy content and error on estimation was analysed by the Spearman correlation, and comparison between the mean EQ and WQ was accomplished by means of the Wilcoxon signed rank test (P < 0.05). Results: A low percentage of estimates (18.5%) were considered accurate (+/- 10% of the actual weight). The most frequently underestimated food items were cauliflower, lettuce, apple and papaya; the most often overestimated items were milk, margarine and sugar. A significant positive correlation between food energy density and estimation was found (r = 0.8166; P = 0.0002). Conclusions: The results obtained in the present study revealed a low percentage of acceptable estimations of food portion size by nutrition students, with trends toward overestimation of high-energy food items and underestimation of low-energy items.

Fetal volume and crown-rump length from 7 to 10 weeks of gestational age in singletons and twins

Objective(s): We intend to verify if fetal volume and crown-rump length were different between singletons and twins in pregnancies aged from 7 to 10 weeks and to evaluate if fetal volume is more accurate to determine the gestational age than crown-rump length at this gestational age. Study design: From 52 days (7 weeks and 3 days) to 73 days (10 weeks and 3 days) weekly three-dimensional Ultrasonography was per-formed in 20 twin fetuses and 20 singletons. Crown-rump length and fetal volume using VOCAL were assessed in all examinations. The `true` gestational age was based on oocyte retrieval. Results: At the age of 52 days, the crown-rump length was 11.74 +/- 0.27 mm (mean +/- S.D.) and 11.48 +/- 0.22 mm (singletons and twins, respectively), while the fetal volume was 0.354 +/- 0.015 cm(3) and 0.324 +/- 0.012 cm(3). At the gestational age of 73 days, the crown-rump length was 36.19 +/- 0.90 mm and 35.87 +/- 0.54 mm and the fetal volume was 6.204 +/- 0.090 cm(3) and 6.083 +/- 0.081 cm(3). The total relative increase observed was much higher for fetal volume than for CRL: 1705 +/- 301% vs. 210 +/- 33% in singletons and 1827 +/- 305% vs. 214 +/- 25% in twins. The 95% limits of agreement (+/- 2.3 days vs. +/- 3.2 days, fetal volume vs. crown-rump length) and the intraclass correlation coefficients (0.989 vs. 0.978) between the ""true"" gestational age and that predicted by fetal volume were better than those predicted by crown-rump length. No significant difference was identified between singletons and twins for both fetal volume and crown-rump length. Conclusion(s): Twins and singletons had similar fetal volume and crown-rump length between the 7th and 10th week of gestational age. Additionally, fetal volume assessed by VOCAL was better than crown-rump length to estimate the gestational age at the evaluated period. However, the improvement was small and probably without clinical significance. Condensation: Fetal volume and crown-rump length were similar between singletons and twins. Fetal volume relative increase was higher and the predicted gestational age was better. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Two-step tuberculin skin test and booster phenomenon prevalence among Brazilian medical students

SETTING: Five medical schools in three cities in Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil, with different tuberculosis (TB) incidence rates. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the prevalence of the booster phenomenon and its associated factors in a voting universally BCG-vaccinated TB-exposed population. DESIGN: A two-step tuberculin skin test (TST) was performed among undergraduate medical students. Boosting was defined as an induration >= 10 mm in the second TST (TST2), with an increase of at least 6 mm over the first TST (TST1). The association of boosting with independent variables was evaluated using multivariate analysis. RESULTS: Of the 764 participants (mean age 21.9 +/- 2.7 years), 672 (87.9%) had a BCG scar. The overall booster SUMMARY phenomenon prevalence was 8.4% (95%CI 6.5-10.6). Boosting was associated with TST1 reactions of 1-9 mm (aOR 2.5, 95%CI 1.04-5.9) and with BCG vaccination, mostly after infancy, i.e., after age two years (aOR 9.1, 95%,CI 1.2-70.7). CONCLUSION: The prevalence of the booster phenomenon was high. A two-step TST in young BCG-vaccinated populations, especially in those with TST1 reactions of 1-9 mm, can avoid misdiagnosis as a false conversion and potentially reduce unnecessary treatment for latent TB infection.

Genotyping of Brazilian Erysipelothrix spp. strains by amplified fragment length polymorphism

One hundred and fifty-one Erysipelothrix spp. isolates from diseased and carrier swine from Brazil were identified by PCR, submitted to serotyping and analyzed by amplified fragment length polymorphism with a single enzyme (AFLP). Reference strains from Australia and the United Kingdom were also examined. The 151 strains were classified into 18 different serotypes (1a, 1b, 2a, 2b, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12, 15, 17, 19, 21, 24 and 25), being serotype 2b the most frequent (39.7%). By associating serotyping and PCR results, it was possible to identify 146 strains as E. rhusiopathiae and five strains as E. tonsillarum. Despite the fact that for this genus AFLP did not cluster all isolates according to serotype, origin, disease or isolation data, the execution of the technique was easy and fast, demonstrating high discriminatory power. The results produced by the AFLP analysis of Erysipelothrix spp. could also support its use as a discriminatory tool for E. rhusiopathiae and E. tonsillarum species. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimation of R(0) from the initial phase of an outbreak of a vector-borne infection

The magnitude of the basic reproduction ratio R(0) of an epidemic can be estimated in several ways, namely, from the final size of the epidemic, from the average age at first infection, or from the initial growth phase of the outbreak. In this paper, we discuss this last method for estimating R(0) for vector-borne infections. Implicit in these models is the assumption that there is an exponential phase of the outbreaks, which implies that in all cases R(0) > 1. We demonstrate that an outbreak is possible, even in cases where R(0) is less than one, provided that the vector-to-human component of R(0) is greater than one and that a certain number of infected vectors are introduced into the affected population. This theory is applied to two real epidemiological dengue situations in the southeastern part of Brazil, one where R(0) is less than one, and other one where R(0) is greater than one. In both cases, the model mirrors the real situations with reasonable accuracy.