Use of DNA profiles for investigation using a simulated national DNA database: Part II. Statistical and ethical considerations on familial searching.

Familial searching consists of searching for a full profile left at a crime scene in a National DNA Database (NDNAD). In this paper we are interested in the circumstance where no full match is returned, but a partial match is found between a database member's profile and the crime stain. Because close relatives share more of their DNA than unrelated persons, this partial match may indicate that the crime stain was left by a close relative of the person with whom the partial match was found. This approach has successfully solved important crimes in the UK and the USA. In a previous paper, a model, which takes into account substructure and siblings, was used to simulate a NDNAD. In this paper, we have used this model to test the usefulness of familial searching and offer guidelines for pre-assessment of the cases based on the likelihood ratio. Siblings of "persons" present in the simulated Swiss NDNAD were created. These profiles (N=10,000) were used as traces and were then compared to the whole database (N=100,000). The statistical results obtained show that the technique has great potential confirming the findings of previous studies. However, effectiveness of the technique is only one part of the story. Familial searching has juridical and ethical aspects that should not be ignored. In Switzerland for example, there are no specific guidelines to the legality or otherwise of familial searching. This article both presents statistical results, and addresses criminological and civil liberties aspects to take into account risks and benefits of familial searching.

JULIDE: a software tool for 3D reconstruction and statistical analysis of autoradiographic mouse brain sections.

In this article we introduce JULIDE, a software toolkit developed to perform the 3D reconstruction, intensity normalization, volume standardization by 3D image registration and voxel-wise statistical analysis of autoradiographs of mouse brain sections. This software tool has been developed in the open-source ITK software framework and is freely available under a GPL license. The article presents the complete image processing chain from raw data acquisition to 3D statistical group analysis. Results of the group comparison in the context of a study on spatial learning are shown as an illustration of the data that can be obtained with this tool.

Statistical discrimination of steroid profiles in doping control with support vector machines.

Due to their performance enhancing properties, use of anabolic steroids (e.g. testosterone, nandrolone, etc.) is banned in elite sports. Therefore, doping control laboratories accredited by the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) screen among others for these prohibited substances in urine. It is particularly challenging to detect misuse with naturally occurring anabolic steroids such as testosterone (T), which is a popular ergogenic agent in sports and society. To screen for misuse with these compounds, drug testing laboratories monitor the urinary concentrations of endogenous steroid metabolites and their ratios, which constitute the steroid profile and compare them with reference ranges to detect unnaturally high values. However, the interpretation of the steroid profile is difficult due to large inter-individual variances, various confounding factors and different endogenous steroids marketed that influence the steroid profile in various ways. A support vector machine (SVM) algorithm was developed to statistically evaluate urinary steroid profiles composed of an extended range of steroid profile metabolites. This model makes the interpretation of the analytical data in the quest for deviating steroid profiles feasible and shows its versatility towards different kinds of misused endogenous steroids. The SVM model outperforms the current biomarkers with respect to detection sensitivity and accuracy, particularly when it is coupled to individual data as stored in the Athlete Biological Passport.

Identification of factors associated with diagnostic error in primary care.

BACKGROUND Missed, delayed or incorrect diagnoses are considered to be diagnostic errors. The aim of this paper is to describe the methodology of a study to analyse cognitive aspects of the process by which primary care (PC) physicians diagnose dyspnoea. It examines the possible links between the use of heuristics, suboptimal cognitive acts and diagnostic errors, using Reason's taxonomy of human error (slips, lapses, mistakes and violations). The influence of situational factors (professional experience, perceived overwork and fatigue) is also analysed. METHODS Cohort study of new episodes of dyspnoea in patients receiving care from family physicians and residents at PC centres in Granada (Spain). With an initial expected diagnostic error rate of 20%, and a sampling error of 3%, 384 episodes of dyspnoea are calculated to be required. In addition to filling out the electronic medical record of the patients attended, each physician fills out 2 specially designed questionnaires about the diagnostic process performed in each case of dyspnoea. The first questionnaire includes questions on the physician's initial diagnostic impression, the 3 most likely diagnoses (in order of likelihood), and the diagnosis reached after the initial medical history and physical examination. It also includes items on the physicians' perceived overwork and fatigue during patient care. The second questionnaire records the confirmed diagnosis once it is reached. The complete diagnostic process is peer-reviewed to identify and classify the diagnostic errors. The possible use of heuristics of representativeness, availability, and anchoring and adjustment in each diagnostic process is also analysed. Each audit is reviewed with the physician responsible for the diagnostic process. Finally, logistic regression models are used to determine if there are differences in the diagnostic error variables based on the heuristics identified. DISCUSSION This work sets out a new approach to studying the diagnostic decision-making process in PC, taking advantage of new technologies which allow immediate recording of the decision-making process.

Use of Two-Part Regression Calibration Model to Correct for Measurement Error in Episodically Consumed Foods in a Single-Replicate Study Design: EPIC Case Study.

In epidemiologic studies, measurement error in dietary variables often attenuates association between dietary intake and disease occurrence. To adjust for the attenuation caused by error in dietary intake, regression calibration is commonly used. To apply regression calibration, unbiased reference measurements are required. Short-term reference measurements for foods that are not consumed daily contain excess zeroes that pose challenges in the calibration model. We adapted two-part regression calibration model, initially developed for multiple replicates of reference measurements per individual to a single-replicate setting. We showed how to handle excess zero reference measurements by two-step modeling approach, how to explore heteroscedasticity in the consumed amount with variance-mean graph, how to explore nonlinearity with the generalized additive modeling (GAM) and the empirical logit approaches, and how to select covariates in the calibration model. The performance of two-part calibration model was compared with the one-part counterpart. We used vegetable intake and mortality data from European Prospective Investigation on Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. In the EPIC, reference measurements were taken with 24-hour recalls. For each of the three vegetable subgroups assessed separately, correcting for error with an appropriately specified two-part calibration model resulted in about three fold increase in the strength of association with all-cause mortality, as measured by the log hazard ratio. Further found is that the standard way of including covariates in the calibration model can lead to over fitting the two-part calibration model. Moreover, the extent of adjusting for error is influenced by the number and forms of covariates in the calibration model. For episodically consumed foods, we advise researchers to pay special attention to response distribution, nonlinearity, and covariate inclusion in specifying the calibration model.

Statistical Analysis of Eco-Toxicologic Data of Mammals from a Polluted Area

Several eco-toxicological studies have shown that insectivorous mammals, due to theirfeeding habits, easily accumulate high amounts of pollutants in relation to other mammal species. To assess the bio-accumulation levels of toxic metals and their in°uenceon essential metals, we quantified the concentration of 19 elements (Ca, K, Fe, B, P,S, Na, Al, Zn, Ba, Rb, Sr, Cu, Mn, Hg, Cd, Mo, Cr and Pb) in bones of 105 greaterwhite-toothed shrews (Crocidura russula) from a polluted (Ebro Delta) and a control(Medas Islands) area. Since chemical contents of a bio-indicator are mainly compositional data, conventional statistical analyses currently used in eco-toxicology can givemisleading results. Therefore, to improve the interpretation of the data obtained, weused statistical techniques for compositional data analysis to define groups of metalsand to evaluate the relationships between them, from an inter-population viewpoint.Hypothesis testing on the adequate balance-coordinates allow us to confirm intuitionbased hypothesis and some previous results. The main statistical goal was to test equalmeans of balance-coordinates for the two defined populations. After checking normality,one-way ANOVA or Mann-Whitney tests were carried out for the inter-group balances

MDCT Arthrography of the Hip: Value of the Adaptive Statistical Iterative Reconstruction Technique and Potential for Radiation Dose Reduction

Au cours des deux dernières décennies, la technique d'imagerie arthro-scanner a bénéficié de nombreux progrès technologiques et représente aujourd'hui une excellente alternative à l'imagerie par résonance magnétique (IRM) et / ou arthro-IRM dans l'évaluation des pathologies de la hanche. Cependant, elle reste limitée par l'exposition aux rayonnements ionisants importante. Les techniques de reconstruction itérative (IR) ont récemment été mis en oeuvre avec succès en imagerie ; la littérature montre que l'utilisation ces dernières contribue à réduire la dose d'environ 40 à 55%, comparativement aux protocoles courants utilisant la rétroprojection filtrée (FBP), en scanner de rachis. A notre connaissance, l'utilisation de techniques IR en arthro-scanner de hanche n'a pas été évaluée jusqu'à présent. Le but de notre étude était d'évaluer l'impact de la technique ASIR (GE Healthcare) sur la qualité de l'image objective et subjective en arthro-scanner de hanche, et d'évaluer son potentiel en terme de réduction de dose. Pour cela, trente sept patients examinés par arthro-scanner de hanche ont été randomisés en trois groupes : dose standard (CTDIvol = 38,4 mGy) et deux groupes de dose réduite (CTDIvol = 24,6 ou 15,4 mGy). Les images ont été reconstruites en rétroprojection filtrée (FBP) puis en appliquant différents pourcentages croissants d'ASIR (30, 50, 70 et 90%). Le bruit et le rapport contraste sur bruit (CNR) ont été mesurés. Deux radiologues spécialisés en imagerie musculo-squelettique ont évalué de manière indépendante la qualité de l'image au niveau de plusieurs structures anatomiques en utilisant une échelle de quatre grades. Ils ont également évalué les lésions labrales et du cartilage articulaire. Les résultats révèlent que le bruit augmente (p = 0,0009) et le CNR diminue (p = 0,001) de manière significative lorsque la dose diminue. A l'inverse, le bruit diminue (p = 0,0001) et le contraste sur bruit augmente (p < 0,003) de manière significative lorsque le pourcentage d'ASIR augmente ; on trouve également une augmentation significative des scores de la qualité de l'image pour le labrum, le cartilage, l'os sous-chondral, la qualité de l'image globale (au delà de ASIR 50%), ainsi que le bruit (p < 0,04), et une réduction significative pour l'os trabuculaire et les muscles (p < 0,03). Indépendamment du niveau de dose, il n'y a pas de différence significative pour la détection et la caractérisation des lésions labrales (n=24, p = 1) et des lésions cartilagineuses (n=40, p > 0,89) en fonction du pourcentage d'ASIR. Notre travail a permis de montrer que l'utilisation de plus de 50% d'ASIR permet de reduire de manière significative la dose d'irradiation reçue par le patient lors d'un arthro-scanner de hanche tout en maintenant une qualité d'image diagnostique comparable par rapport à un protocole de dose standard utilisant la rétroprojection filtrée.

Statistical evidences of cyclic changes in volcanic gas chemistry composition by inverse modelling

The identification of compositional changes in fumarolic gases of active and quiescent volcanoes is one of the mostimportant targets in monitoring programs. From a general point of view, many systematic (often cyclic) and randomprocesses control the chemistry of gas discharges, making difficult to produce a convincing mathematical-statisticalmodelling.Changes in the chemical composition of volcanic gases sampled at Vulcano Island (Aeolian Arc, Sicily, Italy) fromeight different fumaroles located in the northern sector of the summit crater (La Fossa) have been analysed byconsidering their dependence from time in the period 2000-2007. Each intermediate chemical composition has beenconsidered as potentially derived from the contribution of the two temporal extremes represented by the 2000 and 2007samples, respectively, by using inverse modelling methodologies for compositional data. Data pertaining to fumarolesF5 and F27, located on the rim and in the inner part of La Fossa crater, respectively, have been used to achieve theproposed aim. The statistical approach has allowed us to highlight the presence of random and not random fluctuations,features useful to understand how the volcanic system works, opening new perspectives in sampling strategies and inthe evaluation of the natural risk related to a quiescent volcano

Statistical similarity between the compression of a porous material and earthquakes

It has been long stated that there are profound analogies between fracture experiments and earthquakes; however, few works attempt a complete characterization of the parallelisms between these so separate phenomena. We study the Acoustic Emission events produced during the compression of Vycor (SiO&sub&2&/sub&). The Gutenberg-Richter law, the modified Omori's law, and the law of aftershock productivity hold for a minimum of 5 decades, are independent of the compression rate, and keep stationary for all the duration of the experiments. The waiting-time distribution fulfills a unified scaling law with a power-law exponent close to 2.45 for long times, which is explained in terms of the temporal variations of the activity rate.

Assessment of statistical iterative reconstructions to optimize CT examination protocols for children and young adults

La tomodensitométrie (CT) est une technique d'imagerie dont l'intérêt n'a cessé de croître depuis son apparition dans le début des années 70. Dans le domaine médical, son utilisation est incontournable à tel point que ce système d'imagerie pourrait être amené à devenir victime de son succès si son impact au niveau de l'exposition de la population ne fait pas l'objet d'une attention particulière. Bien évidemment, l'augmentation du nombre d'examens CT a permis d'améliorer la prise en charge des patients ou a rendu certaines procédures moins invasives. Toutefois, pour assurer que le compromis risque - bénéfice soit toujours en faveur du patient, il est nécessaire d'éviter de délivrer des doses non utiles au diagnostic.¦Si cette action est importante chez l'adulte elle doit être une priorité lorsque les examens se font chez l'enfant, en particulier lorsque l'on suit des pathologies qui nécessitent plusieurs examens CT au cours de la vie du patient. En effet, les enfants et jeunes adultes sont plus radiosensibles. De plus, leur espérance de vie étant supérieure à celle de l'adulte, ils présentent un risque accru de développer un cancer radio-induit dont la phase de latence peut être supérieure à vingt ans. Partant du principe que chaque examen radiologique est justifié, il devient dès lors nécessaire d'optimiser les protocoles d'acquisitions pour s'assurer que le patient ne soit pas irradié inutilement. L'avancée technologique au niveau du CT est très rapide et depuis 2009, de nouvelles techniques de reconstructions d'images, dites itératives, ont été introduites afin de réduire la dose et améliorer la qualité d'image.¦Le présent travail a pour objectif de déterminer le potentiel des reconstructions itératives statistiques pour réduire au minimum les doses délivrées lors d'examens CT chez l'enfant et le jeune adulte tout en conservant une qualité d'image permettant le diagnostic, ceci afin de proposer des protocoles optimisés.¦L'optimisation d'un protocole d'examen CT nécessite de pouvoir évaluer la dose délivrée et la qualité d'image utile au diagnostic. Alors que la dose est estimée au moyen d'indices CT (CTDIV0| et DLP), ce travail a la particularité d'utiliser deux approches radicalement différentes pour évaluer la qualité d'image. La première approche dite « physique », se base sur le calcul de métriques physiques (SD, MTF, NPS, etc.) mesurées dans des conditions bien définies, le plus souvent sur fantômes. Bien que cette démarche soit limitée car elle n'intègre pas la perception des radiologues, elle permet de caractériser de manière rapide et simple certaines propriétés d'une image. La seconde approche, dite « clinique », est basée sur l'évaluation de structures anatomiques (critères diagnostiques) présentes sur les images de patients. Des radiologues, impliqués dans l'étape d'évaluation, doivent qualifier la qualité des structures d'un point de vue diagnostique en utilisant une échelle de notation simple. Cette approche, lourde à mettre en place, a l'avantage d'être proche du travail du radiologue et peut être considérée comme méthode de référence.¦Parmi les principaux résultats de ce travail, il a été montré que les algorithmes itératifs statistiques étudiés en clinique (ASIR?, VEO?) ont un important potentiel pour réduire la dose au CT (jusqu'à-90%). Cependant, par leur fonctionnement, ils modifient l'apparence de l'image en entraînant un changement de texture qui pourrait affecter la qualité du diagnostic. En comparant les résultats fournis par les approches « clinique » et « physique », il a été montré que ce changement de texture se traduit par une modification du spectre fréquentiel du bruit dont l'analyse permet d'anticiper ou d'éviter une perte diagnostique. Ce travail montre également que l'intégration de ces nouvelles techniques de reconstruction en clinique ne peut se faire de manière simple sur la base de protocoles utilisant des reconstructions classiques. Les conclusions de ce travail ainsi que les outils développés pourront également guider de futures études dans le domaine de la qualité d'image, comme par exemple, l'analyse de textures ou la modélisation d'observateurs pour le CT.¦-¦Computed tomography (CT) is an imaging technique in which interest has been growing since it first began to be used in the early 1970s. In the clinical environment, this imaging system has emerged as the gold standard modality because of its high sensitivity in producing accurate diagnostic images. However, even if a direct benefit to patient healthcare is attributed to CT, the dramatic increase of the number of CT examinations performed has raised concerns about the potential negative effects of ionizing radiation on the population. To insure a benefit - risk that works in favor of a patient, it is important to balance image quality and dose in order to avoid unnecessary patient exposure.¦If this balance is important for adults, it should be an absolute priority for children undergoing CT examinations, especially for patients suffering from diseases requiring several follow-up examinations over the patient's lifetime. Indeed, children and young adults are more sensitive to ionizing radiation and have an extended life span in comparison to adults. For this population, the risk of developing cancer, whose latency period exceeds 20 years, is significantly higher than for adults. Assuming that each patient examination is justified, it then becomes a priority to optimize CT acquisition protocols in order to minimize the delivered dose to the patient. Over the past few years, CT advances have been developing at a rapid pace. Since 2009, new iterative image reconstruction techniques, called statistical iterative reconstructions, have been introduced in order to decrease patient exposure and improve image quality.¦The goal of the present work was to determine the potential of statistical iterative reconstructions to reduce dose as much as possible without compromising image quality and maintain diagnosis of children and young adult examinations.¦The optimization step requires the evaluation of the delivered dose and image quality useful to perform diagnosis. While the dose is estimated using CT indices (CTDIV0| and DLP), the particularity of this research was to use two radically different approaches to evaluate image quality. The first approach, called the "physical approach", computed physical metrics (SD, MTF, NPS, etc.) measured on phantoms in well-known conditions. Although this technique has some limitations because it does not take radiologist perspective into account, it enables the physical characterization of image properties in a simple and timely way. The second approach, called the "clinical approach", was based on the evaluation of anatomical structures (diagnostic criteria) present on patient images. Radiologists, involved in the assessment step, were asked to score image quality of structures for diagnostic purposes using a simple rating scale. This approach is relatively complicated to implement and also time-consuming. Nevertheless, it has the advantage of being very close to the practice of radiologists and is considered as a reference method.¦Primarily, this work revealed that the statistical iterative reconstructions studied in clinic (ASIR? and VECO have a strong potential to reduce CT dose (up to -90%). However, by their mechanisms, they lead to a modification of the image appearance with a change in image texture which may then effect the quality of the diagnosis. By comparing the results of the "clinical" and "physical" approach, it was showed that a change in texture is related to a modification of the noise spectrum bandwidth. The NPS analysis makes possible to anticipate or avoid a decrease in image quality. This project demonstrated that integrating these new statistical iterative reconstruction techniques can be complex and cannot be made on the basis of protocols using conventional reconstructions. The conclusions of this work and the image quality tools developed will be able to guide future studies in the field of image quality as texture analysis or model observers dedicated to CT.

Implementing statistical learning methods through Bayesian networks (Part 2): bayesian evaluations for results of black toner analyses in forensic document examination

This paper presents and discusses the use of Bayesian procedures - introduced through the use of Bayesian networks in Part I of this series of papers - for 'learning' probabilities from data. The discussion will relate to a set of real data on characteristics of black toners commonly used in printing and copying devices. Particular attention is drawn to the incorporation of the proposed procedures as an integral part in probabilistic inference schemes (notably in the form of Bayesian networks) that are intended to address uncertainties related to particular propositions of interest (e.g., whether or not a sample originates from a particular source). The conceptual tenets of the proposed methodologies are presented along with aspects of their practical implementation using currently available Bayesian network software.

A-1 Monthly Public Assistance Statistical Report Family Investment Program, December 2003

Monthly Public Assistance Statistical Report Family Investment Program

E-1 Monthly Statistical Movement Summary for Entire Iowa Department of Corrections, Iowa Department of Corrections, February 2001

Monthly Statistical Movement Summary for Entire Iowa Department of Corrections

E-1 Monthly Statistical Movement Summary for Entire Iowa Department of Corrections, Iowa Department of Corrections, May 2001

Monthly Statistical Movement Summary for Entire Iowa Department of Corrections

E-1 Monthly Statistical Movement Summary for Entire Iowa Department of Corrections, Iowa Department of Corrections, April 2001

Monthly Statistical Movement Summary for Entire Iowa Department of Corrections