Análise da dinâmica espaço-temporal de culturas agrícolas no Brasil: uma abordagem metodológica.

Atualmente, o Brasil se apresenta como um grande produtor agrícola mundial com finalidade alimentícia e bioenergética. Ano a ano recordes de produção são batidos pelo setor agropecuário. Por outro lado, tem-se uma perspectiva de problemas alimentícios e energéticos no mundo, em especial no continente africano onde muitos vivem na miséria e na fome. Neste contexto, esta dissertação de mestrado apresenta uma proposta para a análise da dinâmica espaço-temporal de culturas agrícolas empregando os conceitos e instrumentos da Geomática em busca do desenvolvimento sustentável. Desenvolveu-se uma metodologia para a geração de indicadores da produção agrícola em diferentes níveis da estrutura territorial brasileira que permite a apresentação sintética, por meio de cartogramas e animações digitais, das dinâmicas espacial e espaço-temporal das principais culturas. Para isto foi criada uma base de dados da produção das principais culturas, desenvolvidos indicadores que representem a dinâmica espacial da produção agrícola e desenvolvidas ferramentas de apresentação destes indicadores através da dinâmica espaço-temporal. Finalmente, foram relacionadas as áreas voltadas à produção de alimentos e de expansão agrícola para a bioenergia (etanol e óleo de palma). Pretende-se, através deste trabalho, contribuir na tomada de decisão com ferramentas de visualização da realidade agropecuária brasileira. O trabalho estabelece ligações com os zoneamentos agroecológicos, os instrumentos de segurança alimentar e a pegada ecológica, com a apresentação da produção agrícola das culturas como cana-de-açúcar, milho, soja, palma de óleo e algodão.

Análise espaço-temporal do uso do habitat pelo boto-cinza (Sotalia Guianensis) na Baía de Guanabara, Rio de Janeiro

Determinar áreas de vida tem sido um tema amplamente discutido em trabalhos que procuram entender a relação da espécie estudada com as características de seu habitat. A Baía de Guanabara abriga uma população residente de botos-cinza (Sotalia guianensis) e o objetivo do presente estudo foi analisar o uso espacial de Sotalia guianensis, na Baía de Guanabara (RJ), entre 2002 e 2012. Um total de 204 dias de coleta foi analisado e 902 pontos selecionados para serem gerados os mapas de distribuição. A baía foi dividida em quatro subáreas e a diferença no esforço entre cada uma não ultrapassou 16%. O método Kernel Density foi utilizado nas análises para estimativa e interpretação do uso do habitat pelos grupos de botos-cinza. A interpretação das áreas de concentração da população também foi feita a partir de células (grids) de 1,5km x 1,5km com posterior aplicação do índice de sobreposição de nicho de Pianka. As profundidades utilizadas por S. guianensis não apresentaram variações significativas ao longo do período de estudo (p = 0,531). As áreas utilizadas durante o período de 2002/2004 foram estimadas em 79,4 km com áreas de concentração de 19,4 km. Os períodos de 2008/2010 e 2010/2012 apresentaram áreas de uso estimadas em um total de 51,4 e 58,9 km, respectivamente e áreas de concentração com 10,8 e 10,4 km, respectivamente. As áreas utilizadas envolveram regiões que se estendem por todo o canal central e região nordeste da Baía de Guanabara, onde também está localizada a Área de Proteção Ambiental de Guapimirim. Apesar disso, a área de vida da população, assim como suas áreas de concentração, diminuiu gradativamente ao longo dos anos, especialmente no entorno da Ilha de Paquetá e centro-sul do canal central. Grupos com mais de 10 indivíduos e grupos na classe ≥ 25% de filhotes em sua composição, evidenciaram reduções de mais de 60% no tamanho das áreas utilizadas. A população de botos-cinza vem decrescendo rapidamente nos últimos anos, além de interagir diariamente com fontes perturbadoras, sendo estas possíveis causas da redução do uso do habitat da Baía de Guanabara. Por esse motivo, os resultados apresentados são de fundamental importância para a conservação desta população já que representam consequências da interação em longo prazo com um ambiente costeiro altamente impactado pela ação antrópica.

Variabilidade espacial e temporal das concentrações de clorofila na Baía de Guanabara (RJ) utilizando imagens MERIS e dados in situ

Este trabalho teve como objetivo principal implementar um algoritmo empírico para o monitoramento do processo de eutrofização da Baía de Guanabara (BG), Rio de Janeiro (RJ), utilizando dados de clorofila-a coletados in situ e imagens de satélite coletadas pelo sensor MERIS, a bordo do satélite ENVISAT, da Agência Espacial Européia (ESA). Para a elaboração do algoritmo foi utilizada uma série histórica de clorofila-a (Out/2002 a Jan/2012) fornecida pelo Laboratório de Biologia Marinha da UFRJ, que, acoplada aos dados radiométricos coletados pelo sensor MERIS em datas concomitantes com as coletas in situ de clorofila-a, permitiu a determinação das curvas de regressão que deram origem aos algorítmos. Diversas combinações de bandas foram utilizadas, com ênfase nos comprimentos de onda do verde, vermelho e infra-vermelho próximo. O algoritmo escolhido (R = 0,66 e MRE = 77,5%) fez uso dos comprimentos de onda entre o verde e o vermelho (665, 680, 560 e 620 nm) e apresentou resultado satisfatório, apesar das limitações devido à complexidade da área de estudo e problemas no algoritmo de correção atmosférica . Algorítmos típicos de água do Caso I (OC3 e OC4) também foram testados, assim como os algoritmos FLH e MCI, aconselhados para águas com concentrações elevadas de Chl-a, todos com resultados insatisfatório. Como observado por estudos pretéritos, a Baia de Guanabara possui alta variabilidade espacial e temporal de concentrações de clorofila-a, com as maiores concentrações no período úmido (meses: 01, 02, 03, 10, 11 12) e nas porções marginais (~ 100 mg.m-3), particularmente na borda Oeste da baia, e menores concentrações no período seco e no canal principal de circulação (~ 20 mg.m-3). O presente trabalho é pioneiro na construção e aplicação de algoritmos bio-óptico para a região da BG utilizando imagens MERIS. Apesar dos bons resultados, o presente algorítmo não deve ser considerado definitivo, e recomenda-se para trabalhos futuros testar os diferentes modelos de correção atmosférico para as imagens MERIS.

Temporal trends in reef fish assemblages inside Virgin Islands National Park and around St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands, 1988-2006

This report is a result of long-term fish monitoring studies supported by the National Park Service (NPS) at the Virgin Islands National Park since 1988 and is now a joint NPS and NOAA collaboration. Reef fish monitoring data collected from 1988 to 2006 within Virgin Islands National Park (VINP) and adjacent reefs around St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) were analyzed to provide information on the status of reef fishes during the monitoring period. Monitoring projects were initiated by the National Park Service (NPS) in the 1980s to provide useful data for evaluation of resources and for development of a long-term monitoring program. Monthly monitoring was conducted at two reef sites (Yawzi Point and Cocoloba Cay) starting in November 1988 for 2.5 years to document the monthly/seasonal variability in reef fish assemblages. Hurricane Hugo (a powerful Category 4 storm) struck the USVI in September 1989 resulting in considerable damage to the reefs around St. John. Abundance of fishes was lower at both sites following the storm, however, a greater effect was observed at Yawzi Point, which experienced a more direct impact from the hurricane. The storm affected species differently, with some showing only small, short-term declines in abundance, and others, such as the numerically abundant blue chromis (Chromis cyanea), a planktivorous damselfish, exhibiting a larger and longer recovery period. This report provides: 1) an evaluation of sampling methods, sample size, and methods used during the sampling period, 2) an evaluation of the spatial and temporal variability in reef fish assemblages at selected reef sites inside and outside of VINP, and 3) an evaluation of trends over 17 years of monitoring at the four reference sites. Comparisons of methods were conducted to standardize assessments among years. Several methods were used to evaluate sample size requirements for reef fish monitoring and the results provided a statistically robust justification for sample allocation.

Interdecadal variability in the spatial structure of wind and SST in the California Current system

The physical environment of eastern boundary current systems is rarely uniform in time. ENSO and other perturbations produce profound anomalies in the atmosphere and ocean on interannual to decadal and century time scales. ... The objective of this paper is to describe the temporal variability in the spatial texture of the California Current system, a major eastern boundary current system off the west coast of North America, to provide a base from which to evaluate the effect of climate change - in the recent past, at present, and for the future.

Spatial and temporal variations in pH and total alkalinity at the beginning of the rainy season in the Changjiang Estuary, China

The results of field observation carried out in May 2003 were used to examine pH and total alkalinity behaviors in the Changjiang Estuary. It was showed that PH and total alkalinity took on clear spatial variations in values with the minima in the low salinity region. Like salinity, transect distributions of PH and total alkalinity (TA) in a downriver direction had a sharp gradient each. These gradients appeared in such a sequence that the TA gradient was earlier than salinity and PH gradients, and the salinity gradient was earlier than the PH gradient. These distribution characteristics seemed to be strongly influenced by the mixing process of freshwater and seawater, for both PH and total alkalinity had significant linear relationships with salinity and temperature. For PH, phytoplankton activities also had a significant impact upon its spatial distribution. During a period of 48 h, PH and total alkalinity changed within wide ranges for every layer of the two anchor stations, namely, Stas 13 and 20, which were located at the mixed water mass and seawater mass, respectively. For both Stas 13 and 20, PH and TA fluctuation of every layer could be very wide during a 4 h period. As a whole, the data of the two anchor stations showed that neither variations in salinity and temperature nor phytoplankton activities were the main factors strongly influencing the total alkalinity temporal variability on a small time scale. The data of Sta. 20 implied that both salinity variation and phytoplankton activities had a significant influence on PH temporal variability, but the same conclusion could not be drawn from the data of Sta. 13.

Dramatic variability of the carbonate system at a temperate coastal ocean site (Beaufort, North Carolina, USA) is regulated by physical and biogeochemical processes on multiple timescales.

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) from anthropogenic sources is acidifying marine environments resulting in potentially dramatic consequences for the physical, chemical and biological functioning of these ecosystems. If current trends continue, mean ocean pH is expected to decrease by ~0.2 units over the next ~50 years. Yet, there is also substantial temporal variability in pH and other carbon system parameters in the ocean resulting in regions that already experience change that exceeds long-term projected trends in pH. This points to short-term dynamics as an important layer of complexity on top of long-term trends. Thus, in order to predict future climate change impacts, there is a critical need to characterize the natural range and dynamics of the marine carbonate system and the mechanisms responsible for observed variability. Here, we present pH and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) at time intervals spanning 1 hour to >1 year from a dynamic, coastal, temperate marine system (Beaufort Inlet, Beaufort NC USA) to characterize the carbonate system at multiple time scales. Daily and seasonal variation of the carbonate system is largely driven by temperature, alkalinity and the balance between primary production and respiration, but high frequency change (hours to days) is further influenced by water mass movement (e.g. tides) and stochastic events (e.g. storms). Both annual (~0.3 units) and diurnal (~0.1 units) variability in coastal ocean acidity are similar in magnitude to 50 year projections of ocean acidity associated with increasing atmospheric CO2. The environmental variables driving these changes highlight the importance of characterizing the complete carbonate system rather than just pH. Short-term dynamics of ocean carbon parameters may already exert significant pressure on some coastal marine ecosystems with implications for ecology, biogeochemistry and evolution and this shorter term variability layers additive effects and complexity, including extreme values, on top of long-term trends in ocean acidification.

Spatial variability of air pollution in the vicinity of a permanent monitoring station in central Paris

The strong spatial and temporal variability of traffic-related air pollution detected at roadside locations in a number of European cities has raised the question of how representative the site and time period of air quality measurements actually can be. To address this question, a 7-month sampling campaign was carried out on a major road axis (Avenue Leclerc) leading to a very busy intersection (Place Basch) in central Paris, covering the surroundings of a permanent air quality monitoring station. This station has recorded the highest CO and NOx concentrations during recent years in the region of Paris. Diffusive BTX samplers as well as a mobile monitoring unit equipped with real-time CO, NOx and O3 analysers and meteorological instruments were used to reveal the small-scale pollution gradients and their temporal trends near the permanent monitoring station. The diffusive measurements provided 7-day averages of benzene, toluene, xylene and other hydrocarbons at different heights above the ground and distances from the kerb covering summer and winter periods. Relevant traffic and meteorological data were also obtained on an hourly basis. Furthermore, three semiempirical dispersion models (STREET-SRI, OSPM and AEOLIUS) were tested for an asymmetric canyon location in Av. Leclerc. The analysis of this comprehensive data set has helped to assess the representativeness of air quality monitoring information.

Summarising spatial and temporal information in CPR data

The Continuous Plankton Recorder survey provides pan-oceanic data on geographic distribution, species composition, seasonal cycles of abundance, and long-term change during the last 70 years. In this paper we compare and contrast some of the historic data-analytic protocols of the survey, focusing primarily on the various means by which spatio-temporal information in CPR data has been exposed. Relative strengths and limitations are assessed, followed by suggestions for future approaches to the visualisation and summarising of CPR data.

Marine plankton phenology and life history in a changing climate: current research and future directions

Increasing availability and extent of biological ocean time series (from both in situ and satellite data) have helped reveal significant phenological variability of marine plankton. The extent to which the range of this variability is modified as a result of climate change is of obvious importance. Here we summarize recent research results on phenology of both phytoplankton and zooplankton. We suggest directions to better quantify and monitor future plankton phenology shifts, including (i) examining the main mode of expected future changes (ecological shifts in timing and spatial distribution to accommodate fixed environmental niches vs. evolutionary adaptation of timing controls to maintain fixed biogeography and seasonality), (ii) broader understanding of phenology at the species and community level (e.g. for zooplankton beyond Calanus and for phytoplankton beyond chlorophyll), (iii) improving and diversifying statistical metrics for indexing timing and trophic synchrony and (iv) improved consideration of spatio-temporal scales and the Lagrangian nature of plankton assemblages to separate time from space changes.

Effects of environmental conditions on the seasonal distribution of phytoplankton biomass in the North Sea

We study the spatial and seasonal variability of phytoplankton biomass (as phytoplankton color) in relation to the environmental conditions in the North Sea using data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey. By using only environmental fields and location as predictor variables we developed a nonparametric model (generalized additive model) to empirically explore how key environmental factors modulate the spatio-temporal patterns of the seasonal cycle of algal biomass as well as how these relate to the ,1988 North Sea regime shift. Solar radiation, as manifest through changes of sea surface temperature (SST), was a key factor not only in the seasonal cycle but also as a driver of the shift. The pronounced increase in SST and in wind speed after the 1980s resulted in an extension of the season favorable for phytoplankton growth. Nutrients appeared to be unimportant as explanatory variables for the observed spatio-temporal pattern, implying that they were not generally limiting factors. Under the new climatic regime the carrying capacity of the whole system has been increased and the southern North Sea, where the environmental changes have been more pronounced, reached a new maximum.

Seasonal plankton dynamics along a cross-shelf gradient off northern Spain

The development of population models able to reproduce the dynamics of zooplankton is a central issue when trying to understand how a changing environment would affect zooplankton in the future. Using 10 years of monthly data on phytoplankton and zooplankton abundance in the Bay of Biscay from the IEO's RADIALES time-series programme, we built non-parametric Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) able to reproduce the dynamics of plankton on the basis of environmental factors (nutrients, temperature, upwelling and photoperiod). We found that the interaction between these two plankton components is approximately linear, whereas the effects of environmental factors are non-linear. With the inclusion of the environmental variability, the main seasonal and inter-annual dynamic patterns observed within the studied plankton assemblage indicate the prevalence of bottom-up regulatory control. The statistically deduced models were used to simulate the dynamics of the phytoplankton and zooplankton. A good agreement between observations and simulations was obtained, especially for zooplankton. We are presently developing spatio-temporal GAM models for the North Sea based on the Continuous Plankton Recorder database.

Spatial variability of the plankton trophic interaction in the North Sea: a new feature after the early 1970s

Traditionally, marine ecosystem structure was thought to be bottom-up controlled. In recent years, a number of studies have highlighted the importance of top-down regulation. Evidence is accumulating that the type of trophic forcing varies temporally and spatially, and an integrated view – considering the interplay of both types of control – is emerging. Correlations between time series spanning several decades of the abundances of adjacent trophic levels are conventionally used to assess the type of control: bottom-up if positive or top-down if this is negative. This approach implies averaging periods which might show time-varying dynamics and therefore can hide part of this temporal variability. Using spatially referenced plankton information extracted from the Continuous Plankton Recorder, this study addresses the potential dynamic character of the trophic structure at the planktonic level in the North Sea by assessing its variation over both temporal and spatial scales. Our results show that until the early-1970s a bottom-up control characterized the base of the food web across the whole North Sea, with diatoms having a positive and homogeneous effect on zooplankton filter-feeders. Afterwards, different regional trophic dynamics were observed, in particular a negative relationship between total phytoplankton and zooplankton was detected off the west coast of Norway and the Skagerrak as opposed to a positive one in the southern reaches. Our results suggest that after the early 1970s diatoms remained the main food source for zooplankton filter-feeders east of Orkney–Shetland and off Scotland, while in the east, from the Norwegian Trench to the German Bight, filter-feeders were mainly sustained by dinoflagellates.

Non-linearities, regime shifts and recovery: The recent influence of climate on Black Sea chlorophyll

The Black Sea ecosystem experienced severe eutrophication-related degradation during the 1970s and 1980s. However, in recent years the Black Sea has shown some signs of recovery which are often attributed to a reduction in nutrient loading. Here, SeaWiFS chlorophyll a (chl a), a proxy for phytoplankton biomass, is used to investigate spatio-temporal patterns in Black Sea phytoplankton dynamics and to explore the potential role of climate in the Black Sea's recovery. Maps of chl a anomalies, calculated relative to the 8 year mean, emphasize spatial and temporal variability of phytoplankton biomass in the Black Sea, particularly between the riverine-influenced Northwest Shelf and the open Black Sea. Evolution of phytoplankton biomass has shown significant spatial variability of persistence of optimal bloom conditions between three major regions of the Black Sea. With the exception of 2001, chl a has generally decreased during our 8 year time-series. However, the winter of 2000–2001 was anomalously warm with low wind stress, resulting in reduced vertical mixing of the water column and retention of nutrients in the photic zone. These conditions were associated with anomalously high levels of chl a throughout much of the open Black Sea during the following spring and summer. The unusual climatic conditions occurring in 2001 may have triggered a shift in the Black Sea's chl a regime. The long-term significance of this recent shift is still uncertain but illustrates a non-linear response to climate forcing that makes future ecosystem changes in the pelagic Black Sea ecosystem difficult to predict.

Bottom-up effects of climate on fish populations: data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder

The Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) dataset on fish larvae has an extensive spatio-temporal coverage that allows the responses of fish populations to past changes in climate variability, including abrupt changes such as regime shifts, to be investigated. The newly available dataset offers a unique opportunity to investigate long-term changes over decadal scales in the abundance and distribution of fish larvae in relation to physical and biological factors. A principal component analysis (PCA) using 7 biotic and abiotic parameters is applied to investigate the impact of environmental changes in the North Sea on 5 selected taxa of fish larvae during the period 1960 to 2004. The analysis revealed 4 periods of time (1960–1976; 1977–1982; 1983–1996; 1997–2004) reflecting 3 different ecosystem states. The larvae of clupeids, sandeels, dab and gadoids seemed to be affected mainly by changes in the plankton ecosystem, while the larvae of migratory species such as Atlantic mackerel responded more to hydrographic changes. Climate variability seems more likely to influence fish populations through bottom-up control via a cascading effect from changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) impacting on the hydro dynamic features of the North Sea, in turn impacting on the plankton available as prey for fish larvae. The responses and adaptability of fish larvae to changing environmental conditions, parti cularly to changes in prey availability, are complex and species-specific. This complexity is enhanced with fishing effects interacting with climate effects and this study supports furthering our under - standing of such interactions before attempting to predict how fish populations respond to climate variability