Time is Running Out: The 2°C Target and Optimal Climate Policies

The quintessence of recent natural science studies is that the 2 degrees C target can only be achieved with massive emission reductions in the next few years. The central twist of this paper is the addition of this limited time to act into a non-perpetual real options framework analysing optimal climate policy under uncertainty. The window-of-opportunity modelling setup shows that the limited time to act may spark a trend reversal in the direction of low-carbon alternatives. However, the implementation of a climate policy is evaded by high uncertainty about possible climate pathways.

Social Housing Policies in Latin America and Singapore: Lessons for China

This paper addresses the challenges facing China in accelerating the pace of rural-urban migration as part of its on-going economic development programme. It explains the push and pull influences on migration and in particular explains why a continuing focus on urbanisation is justified by the very large gap between rural and urban incomes and the relatively higher income elasticity of demand for urban-based goods and services. The provision of affordable housing is an integral part of this structural shift programme. The paper thus considers the most appropriate ways in which housing finance can be mobilised, and thence how both the quality and the affordability of the housing stock can be increased. Positive and negative lessons for China are offered from the different urbanisation experiences of Latin America (especially Colombia) and Singapore.

Class-size Reduction Policies and the Quality of Entering Teachers

State-wide class-size reduction (CSR) policies have typically failed to produce large achievement gains. One explanation is that the introduction of such policies forces schools to hire relatively low-quality teachers. This paper uses data from an anonymous state to explore whether teacher quality suff ered from the introduction of CSR. We find that it did, but not nearly enough to explain the small achievement effects of CSR. The combined fall in achievement due to hiring lower quality teachers and more inexperienced teachers is small relative to the unrealized gains. Furthermore, between-school diff erences in the quality of incoming teachers cannot explain the poor estimated CSR performance from previous quasi-experimental treatment-control comparisons.

Can Early Intervention Policies Improve Well-being? Evidence from a randomized controlled trial

Many authors have proposed incorporating measures of well-being into evaluations of public policy. Yet few evaluations use experimental design or examine multiple aspects of well-being, thus the causal impact of public policies on well-being is largely unknown. In this paper we examine the effect of an intensive early intervention program on maternal well-being in a targeted disadvantaged community. Using a randomized controlled trial design we estimate and compare treatment effects on global well-being using measures of life satisfaction, experienced well-being using both the Day Reconstruction Method (DRM) and a measure of mood yesterday, and also a standardized measure of parenting stress. The intervention has no significant impact on negative measures of well-being, such as experienced negative affect as measured by the DRM and global measures of well-being such as life satisfaction or a global measure of parenting stress. Significant treatment effects are observed on experienced measures of positive affect using the DRM, and a measure of mood yesterday. The DRM treatment effects are primarily concentrated during times spent without the target child which may reflect the increased effort and burden associated with additional parental investment. Our findings suggest that a maternal-focused intervention may produce meaningful improvements in experienced well-being. Incorporating measures of experienced affect may thus alter cost-benefit calculations for public policies.

3D geoelectrical monitoring to follow hydric soil behaviour during rainfall

RESUME Durant les dernières années, les méthodes électriques ont souvent été utilisées pour l'investigation des structures de subsurface. L'imagerie électrique (Electrical Resistivity Tomography, ERT) est une technique de prospection non-invasive et spatialement intégrée. La méthode ERT a subi des améliorations significatives avec le développement de nouveaux algorithmes d'inversion et le perfectionnement des techniques d'acquisition. La technologie multicanale et les ordinateurs de dernière génération permettent la collecte et le traitement de données en quelques heures. Les domaines d'application sont nombreux et divers: géologie et hydrogéologie, génie civil et géotechnique, archéologie et études environnementales. En particulier, les méthodes électriques sont souvent employées dans l'étude hydrologique de la zone vadose. Le but de ce travail est le développement d'un système de monitorage 3D automatique, non- invasif, fiable, peu coûteux, basé sur une technique multicanale et approprié pour suivre les variations de résistivité électrique dans le sous-sol lors d'événements pluvieux. En raison des limitations techniques et afin d'éviter toute perturbation physique dans la subsurface, ce dispositif de mesure emploie une installation non-conventionnelle, où toutes les électrodes de courant sont placées au bord de la zone d'étude. Le dispositif le plus approprié pour suivre les variations verticales et latérales de la résistivité électrique à partir d'une installation permanente a été choisi à l'aide de modélisations numériques. Les résultats démontrent que le dispositif pôle-dipôle offre une meilleure résolution que le dispositif pôle-pôle et plus apte à détecter les variations latérales et verticales de la résistivité électrique, et cela malgré la configuration non-conventionnelle des électrodes. Pour tester l'efficacité du système proposé, des données de terrain ont été collectées sur un site d'étude expérimental. La technique de monitorage utilisée permet de suivre le processus d'infiltration 3D pendant des événements pluvieux. Une bonne corrélation est observée entre les résultats de modélisation numérique et les données de terrain, confirmant par ailleurs que le dispositif pôle-dipôle offre une meilleure résolution que le dispositif pôle-pôle. La nouvelle technique de monitorage 3D de résistivité électrique permet de caractériser les zones d'écoulement préférentiel et de caractériser le rôle de la lithologie et de la pédologie de manière quantitative dans les processus hydrologiques responsables d'écoulement de crue. ABSTRACT During the last years, electrical methods were often used for the investigation of subsurface structures. Electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) has been reported to be a useful non-invasive and spatially integrative prospecting technique. The ERT method provides significant improvements, with the developments of new inversion algorithms, and the increasing efficiency of data collection techniques. Multichannel technology and powerful computers allow collecting and processing resistivity data within few hours. Application domains are numerous and varied: geology and hydrogeology, civil engineering and geotechnics, archaeology and environmental studies. In particular, electrical methods are commonly used in hydrological studies of the vadose zone. The aim of this study was to develop a multichannel, automatic, non-invasive, reliable and inexpensive 3D monitoring system designed to follow electrical resistivity variations in soil during rainfall. Because of technical limitations and in order to not disturb the subsurface, the proposed measurement device uses a non-conventional electrode set-up, where all the current electrodes are located near the edges of the survey grid. Using numerical modelling, the most appropriate arrays were selected to detect vertical and lateral variations of the electrical resistivity in the framework of a permanent surveying installation system. The results show that a pole-dipole array has a better resolution than a pole-pole array and can successfully follow vertical and lateral resistivity variations despite the non-conventional electrode configuration used. Field data are then collected at a test site to assess the efficiency of the proposed monitoring technique. The system allows following the 3D infiltration processes during a rainfall event. A good correlation between the results of numerical modelling and field data results can be observed since the field pole-dipole data give a better resolution image than the pole-pole data. The new device and technique makes it possible to better characterize the zones of preferential flow and to quantify the role of lithology and pedology in flood- generating hydrological processes.

Computing Markov-Perfect Optimal Policies in Business-Cycle Models

Time-inconsistency is an essential feature of many policy problems (Kydland and Prescott, 1977). This paper presents and compares three methods for computing Markov-perfect optimal policies in stochastic nonlinear business cycle models. The methods considered include value function iteration, generalized Euler-equations, and parameterized shadow prices. In the context of a business cycle model in which a scal authority chooses government spending and income taxation optimally, while lacking the ability to commit, we show that the solutions obtained using value function iteration and generalized Euler equations are somewhat more accurate than that obtained using parameterized shadow prices. Among these three methods, we show that value function iteration can be applied easily, even to environments that include a risk-sensitive scal authority and/or inequality constraints on government spending. We show that the risk-sensitive scal authority lowers government spending and income-taxation, reducing the disincentive households face to accumulate wealth.

US Monetary and Fiscal Policies - Conflict or Cooperation?

Most of the literature estimating DSGE models for monetary policy analysis ignores fiscal policy and assumes that monetary policy follows a simple rule. In this paper we allow both fiscal and monetary policy to be described by rules and/or optimal policy which are subject to switches over time. We find that US monetary and fiscal policy have often been in conflict, and that it is relatively rare that we observe the benign policy combination of an conservative monetary policy paired with a debt stabilizing fiscal policy. In a series of counterfactuals, a conservative central bank following a time-consistent fiscal policy leader would come close to mimicking the cooperative Ramsey policy. However, if policy makers cannot credibly commit to such a regime, monetary accommodation of the prevailing fiscal regime may actually be welfare improving.

Derivation of soil-specific streaming potential electrical parameters from hydrodynamic characteristics of partially saturated soils

Water movement in unsaturated soils gives rise to measurable electrical potential differences that are related to the flow direction and volumetric fluxes, as well as to the soil properties themselves. Laboratory and field data suggest that these so-called streaming potentials may be several orders of magnitudes larger than theoretical predictions that only consider the influence of the relative permeability and electrical conductivity on the self potential (SP) data. Recent work has improved predictions somewhat by considering how the volumetric excess charge in the pore space scales with the inverse of water saturation. We present a new theoretical approach that uses the flux-averaged excess charge, not the volumetric excess charge, to predict streaming potentials. We present relationships for how this effective excess charge varies with water saturation for typical soil properties using either the water retention or the relative permeability function. We find large differences between soil types and the predictions based on the relative permeability function display the best agreement with field data. The new relationships better explain laboratory data than previous work and allow us to predict the recorded magnitudes of the streaming potentials following a rainfall event in sandy loam, whereas previous models predict values that are three orders of magnitude too small. We suggest that the strong signals in unsaturated media can be used to gain information about fluxes (including very small ones related to film flow), but also to constrain the relative permeability function, the water retention curve, and the relative electrical conductivity function.

Burkholderia sartisoli sp. nov., isolated from a polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon-contaminated soil.

A Gram-negative, rod-shaped, aerobic bacterium, designated strain RP007(T), was isolated from a polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon-contaminated soil in New Zealand. Two additional strains were recovered from a compost heap in Belgium (LMG 18808) and from the rhizosphere of maize in the Netherlands (LMG 24204). The three strains had virtually identical 16S rRNA gene sequences and whole-cell protein profiles, and they were identified as members of the genus Burkholderia, with Burkholderia phenazinium as their closest relative. Strain RP007(T) had a DNA G+C content of 63.5 mol% and could be distinguished from B. phenazinium based on a range of biochemical characteristics. Strain RP007(T) showed levels of DNA-DNA relatedness towards the type strain of B. phenazinium and those of other recognized Burkholderia species of less than 30 %. The results of 16S rRNA gene sequence analysis, DNA-DNA hybridization experiments and physiological and biochemical tests allowed the differentiation of strain RP007(T) from all recognized species of the genus Burkholderia. Strains RP007(T), LMG 18808 and LMG 24204 are therefore considered to represent a single novel species of the genus Burkholderia, for which the name Burkholderia sartisoli sp. nov. is proposed. The type strain is RP007(T) (=LMG 24000(T) =CCUG 53604(T) =ICMP 13529(T)).

Association of hemolytic activity of Pseudomonas entomophila, a versatile soil bacterium, with cyclic lipopeptide production.

Pseudomonas entomophila is an entomopathogenic bacterium that is able to infect and kill Drosophila melanogaster upon ingestion. Its genome sequence suggests that it is a versatile soil bacterium closely related to Pseudomonas putida. The GacS/GacA two-component system plays a key role in P. entomophila pathogenicity, controlling many putative virulence factors and AprA, a secreted protease important to escape the fly immune response. P. entomophila secretes a strong diffusible hemolytic activity. Here, we showed that this activity is linked to the production of a new cyclic lipopeptide containing 14 amino acids and a 3-C(10)OH fatty acid that we called entolysin. Three nonribosomal peptide synthetases (EtlA, EtlB, EtlC) were identified as responsible for entolysin biosynthesis. Two additional components (EtlR, MacAB) are necessary for its production and secretion. The P. entomophila GacS/GacA two-component system regulates entolysin production, and we demonstrated that its functioning requires two small RNAs and two RsmA-like proteins. Finally, entolysin is required for swarming motility, as described for other lipopeptides, but it does not participate in the virulence of P. entomophila for Drosophila. While investigating the physiological role of entolysin, we also uncovered new phenotypes associated with P. entomophila, including strong biocontrol abilities.

The Evolution of adaptation policies in Britain

Adaptació de habitatge al Regne Unit. Ponència presentada al "2º Espacio de Encuentro Rehabilitación y Adaptación Funcional de la Vivienda" (Sant Sebastià, 2 Juny 2010)

The Impact of democratization: a preliminary investigation on social policies and political violence in Latin America

The recent strides of democracy in Latin America have been associated to conflicting outcomes. The expectation that democracy would bring about peace and prosperity have been only partly satisfied. While political violence has been by and large eradicated from the sub-continent, poverty and social injustice still prevail and hold sway. Our study argues that democracy matters for inequality through the growing strength of center left and left parties and by making political leaders in general more responsive to the underprivileged. Furthermore, although the pension reforms recently enacted in the region generated overall regressive outcomes on income distribution, democratic countries still benefit from their political past: where democratic tradition was stronger, such outcomes have been milder. Democratic tradition and the specific ideological connotations of the parties in power, on the other hand, did not play an equally crucial role in securing lower levels of political violence: during the last wave of democratizations in Latin America, domestic peace was rather an outcome of political and social concessions to those in distress. In sum, together with other factors and especially economic ones, the reason why recent democratizations have provided domestic peace in most cases, but have been unable so far to solve the problem of poverty and inequality, is that democratic traditions in the subcontinent have been relatively weak and, more specifically, that this weakness has undermined the growth of left and progressive parties, acting as an obstacle to redistribution. Such weakness, on the other hand, has not prevented the drastic reduction of domestic political violence, since what mattered in this case was a combination of symbolic or material concessions and political agreements among powerful élites and counter-élites.

Repeated Agenda Setting and the Unanimous Approval of Bad Policies

This paper addresses the puzzle of why legislation, even highly inefficient legislation, may pass with overwhelming majorities. We model a egislature in which the same agenda setter serves for two periods, showing how he can exploit a legislature (completely) in the first period by romising future benefits to legislators who support him. In equilibrium, large majority of legislators vote for the first-period proposal because a ote in favor maintains the chance for membership in the minimum winning coalition in the future. The model thus generates situations in which egislators approve policies by large majorities, or even unanimously, that enefit few, or even none, of them. The results are robust: some institutional arrangements, such as super-majority rules or sequential voting, imit but do not eliminate the agenda setter's power to exploit the legislature, and other institutions such as secret voting do not limit his power.

Economic growth and inequality: the role of fiscal policies

This paper analyses the impact of different instruments of fiscal policy on economic growth as well as on income inequality, using an unbalanced panel of 43 upper-middle and high income countries for the period 1972-2006. We consider and estimate two individual equations explaining growth and inequality in order to assess the incidence of different fiscal policies. Firstly, our approach considers imposing orthogonal assumptions between growth and inequality in both equations, and secondly, it allows growth to be included in the inequality equation, and inequality to be included in the growth equation. The empirical results suggest that an increase in the size of government measured through current expenditures and direct taxes diminishes economic growth while reducing inequality, being public investment the only fiscal policy that may break this trade-off between efficiency and equity, since increases in this item reduces inequality without harming output. Therefore, the results reflect that the trade-off between efficiency and equity that governments often confront when designing their fiscal policies may be avoided.