Evaluation of coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations of northern hemisphere extratropical climates in the mid-Holocene

We have used the BIOME4 biogeography–biochemistry model and comparison with palaeovegetation data to evaluate the response of six ocean–atmosphere general circulation models to mid-Holocene changes in orbital forcing in the mid- to high-latitudes of the northern hemisphere. All the models produce: (a) a northward shift of the northern limit of boreal forest, in response to simulated summer warming in high-latitudes. The northward shift is markedly asymmetric, with larger shifts in Eurasia than in North America; (b) an expansion of xerophytic vegetation in mid-continental North America and Eurasia, in response to increased temperatures during the growing season; (c) a northward expansion of temperate forests in eastern North America, in response to simulated winter warming. The northward shift of the northern limit of boreal forest and the northward expansion of temperate forests in North America are supported by palaeovegetation data. The expansion of xerophytic vegetation in mid-continental North America is consistent with palaeodata, although the extent may be over-estimated. The simulated expansion of xerophytic vegetation in Eurasia is not supported by the data. Analysis of an asynchronous coupling of one model to an equilibrium-vegetation model suggests vegetation feedback exacerbates this mid-continental drying and produces conditions more unlike the observations. Not all features of the simulations are robust: some models produce winter warming over Europe while others produce winter cooling. As a result, some models show a northward shift of temperate forests (consistent with, though less marked than, the expansion shown by data) and others produce a reduction in temperate forests. Elucidation of the cause of such differences is a focus of the current phase of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project.

The water balance of northern Africa during the mid-Holocene: an evaluation of the 6ka BP PMIP simulations

Runoff fields over northern Africa (10–25°N, 20°W–30°E) derived from 17 atmospheric general circulation models driven by identical 6 ka BP orbital forcing, sea surface temperatures, and CO2 concentration have been analyzed using a hydrological routing scheme (HYDRA) to simulate changes in lake area. The AGCM-simulated runoff produced six-fold differences in simulated lake area between models, although even the largest simulated changes considerably underestimate the observed changes in lake area during the mid-Holocene. The inter-model differences in simulated lake area are largely due to differences in simulated runoff (the squared correlation coefficient, R2, is 0.84). Most of these differences can be attributed to differences in the simulated precipitation (R2=0.83). The higher correlation between runoff and simulated lake area (R2=0.92) implies that simulated differences in evaporation have a contributory effect. When runoff is calculated using an offline land-surface scheme (BIOME3), the correlation between runoff and simulated lake area is (R2=0.94). Finally, the spatial distribution of simulated precipitation can exert an important control on the overall response.

Statistical-dynamical downscaling for wind energy potentials: evaluation and applications to decadal hindcasts and climate change projections

A statistical–dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach for the regionalization of wind energy output (Eout) over Europe with special focus on Germany is proposed. SDD uses an extended circulation weather type (CWT) analysis on global daily mean sea level pressure fields with the central point being located over Germany. Seventy-seven weather classes based on the associated CWT and the intensity of the geostrophic flow are identified. Representatives of these classes are dynamically downscaled with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. By using weather class frequencies of different data sets, the simulated representatives are recombined to probability density functions (PDFs) of near-surface wind speed and finally to Eout of a sample wind turbine for present and future climate. This is performed for reanalysis, decadal hindcasts and long-term future projections. For evaluation purposes, results of SDD are compared to wind observations and to simulated Eout of purely dynamical downscaling (DD) methods. For the present climate, SDD is able to simulate realistic PDFs of 10-m wind speed for most stations in Germany. The resulting spatial Eout patterns are similar to DD-simulated Eout. In terms of decadal hindcasts, results of SDD are similar to DD-simulated Eout over Germany, Poland, Czech Republic, and Benelux, for which high correlations between annual Eout time series of SDD and DD are detected for selected hindcasts. Lower correlation is found for other European countries. It is demonstrated that SDD can be used to downscale the full ensemble of the Earth System Model of the Max Planck Institute (MPI-ESM) decadal prediction system. Long-term climate change projections in Special Report on Emission Scenarios of ECHAM5/MPI-OM as obtained by SDD agree well to the results of other studies using DD methods, with increasing Eout over northern Europe and a negative trend over southern Europe. Despite some biases, it is concluded that SDD is an adequate tool to assess regional wind energy changes in large model ensembles.

Standardized evaluation of algorithms for computer-aided diagnosis of dementia based on structural MRI: The CADDementia challenge

Algorithms for computer-aided diagnosis of dementia based on structural MRI have demonstrated high performance in the literature, but are difficult to compare as different data sets and methodology were used for evaluation. In addition, it is unclear how the algorithms would perform on previously unseen data, and thus, how they would perform in clinical practice when there is no real opportunity to adapt the algorithm to the data at hand. To address these comparability, generalizability and clinical applicability issues, we organized a grand challenge that aimed to objectively compare algorithms based on a clinically representative multi-center data set. Using clinical practice as the starting point, the goal was to reproduce the clinical diagnosis. Therefore, we evaluated algorithms for multi-class classification of three diagnostic groups: patients with probable Alzheimer's disease, patients with mild cognitive impairment and healthy controls. The diagnosis based on clinical criteria was used as reference standard, as it was the best available reference despite its known limitations. For evaluation, a previously unseen test set was used consisting of 354 T1-weighted MRI scans with the diagnoses blinded. Fifteen research teams participated with a total of 29 algorithms. The algorithms were trained on a small training set (n = 30) and optionally on data from other sources (e.g., the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, the Australian Imaging Biomarkers and Lifestyle flagship study of aging). The best performing algorithm yielded an accuracy of 63.0% and an area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC) of 78.8%. In general, the best performances were achieved using feature extraction based on voxel-based morphometry or a combination of features that included volume, cortical thickness, shape and intensity. The challenge is open for new submissions via the web-based framework: http://caddementia.grand-challenge.org.

A multi-model evaluation of aerosols over South Asia: common problems and possible causes

Atmospheric pollution over South Asia attracts special attention due to its effects on regional climate, water cycle and human health. These effects are potentially growing owing to rising trends of anthropogenic aerosol emissions. In this study, the spatio-temporal aerosol distributions over South Asia from seven global aerosol models are evaluated against aerosol retrievals from NASA satellite sensors and ground-based measurements for the period of 2000–2007. Overall, substantial underestimations of aerosol loading over South Asia are found systematically in most model simulations. Averaged over the entire South Asia, the annual mean aerosol optical depth (AOD) is underestimated by a range 15 to 44% across models compared to MISR (Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer), which is the lowest bound among various satellite AOD retrievals (from MISR, SeaWiFS (Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor), MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Aqua and Terra). In particular during the post-monsoon and wintertime periods (i.e., October–January), when agricultural waste burning and anthropogenic emissions dominate, models fail to capture AOD and aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) over the Indo–Gangetic Plain (IGP) compared to ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sunphotometer measurements. The underestimations of aerosol loading in models generally occur in the lower troposphere (below 2 km) based on the comparisons of aerosol extinction profiles calculated by the models with those from Cloud–Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) data. Furthermore, surface concentrations of all aerosol components (sulfate, nitrate, organic aerosol (OA) and black carbon (BC)) from the models are found much lower than in situ measurements in winter. Several possible causes for these common problems of underestimating aerosols in models during the post-monsoon and wintertime periods are identified: the aerosol hygroscopic growth and formation of secondary inorganic aerosol are suppressed in the models because relative humidity (RH) is biased far too low in the boundary layer and thus foggy conditions are poorly represented in current models, the nitrate aerosol is either missing or inadequately accounted for, and emissions from agricultural waste burning and biofuel usage are too low in the emission inventories. These common problems and possible causes found in multiple models point out directions for future model improvements in this important region.

Spatial evaluation of volcanic ash forecasts using satellite observations

The decision to close airspace in the event of a volcanic eruption is based on hazard maps of predicted ash extent. These are produced using output from volcanic ash transport and dispersion (VATD)models. In this paper an objectivemetric to evaluate the spatial accuracy of VATD simulations relative to satellite retrievals of volcanic ash is presented. The 5 metric is based on the fractions skill score (FSS). Thismeasure of skill provides more information than traditional point-bypoint metrics, such as success index and Pearson correlation coefficient, as it takes into the account spatial scale overwhich skill is being assessed. The FSS determines the scale overwhich a simulation has skill and can differentiate between a "near miss" and a forecast that is badly misplaced. The 10 idealised scenarios presented show that even simulations with considerable displacement errors have useful skill when evaluated over neighbourhood scales of 200–700km2. This method could be used to compare forecasts produced by different VATDs or using different model parameters, assess the impact of assimilating satellite retrieved ash data and evaluate VATD forecasts over a long time period.

Current model capabilities for simulating black carbon and sulfate concentrations in the Arctic atmosphere: a multi-model evaluation using a comprehensive measurement data set

The concentrations of sulfate, black carbon (BC) and other aerosols in the Arctic are characterized by high values in late winter and spring (so-called Arctic Haze) and low values in summer. Models have long been struggling to capture this seasonality and especially the high concentrations associated with Arctic Haze. In this study, we evaluate sulfate and BC concentrations from eleven different models driven with the same emission inventory against a comprehensive pan-Arctic measurement data set over a time period of 2 years (2008–2009). The set of models consisted of one Lagrangian particle dispersion model, four chemistry transport models (CTMs), one atmospheric chemistry-weather forecast model and five chemistry climate models (CCMs), of which two were nudged to meteorological analyses and three were running freely. The measurement data set consisted of surface measurements of equivalent BC (eBC) from five stations (Alert, Barrow, Pallas, Tiksi and Zeppelin), elemental carbon (EC) from Station Nord and Alert and aircraft measurements of refractory BC (rBC) from six different campaigns. We find that the models generally captured the measured eBC or rBC and sulfate concentrations quite well, compared to previous comparisons. However, the aerosol seasonality at the surface is still too weak in most models. Concentrations of eBC and sulfate averaged over three surface sites are underestimated in winter/spring in all but one model (model means for January–March underestimated by 59 and 37 % for BC and sulfate, respectively), whereas concentrations in summer are overestimated in the model mean (by 88 and 44 % for July–September), but with overestimates as well as underestimates present in individual models. The most pronounced eBC underestimates, not included in the above multi-site average, are found for the station Tiksi in Siberia where the measured annual mean eBC concentration is 3 times higher than the average annual mean for all other stations. This suggests an underestimate of BC sources in Russia in the emission inventory used. Based on the campaign data, biomass burning was identified as another cause of the modeling problems. For sulfate, very large differences were found in the model ensemble, with an apparent anti-correlation between modeled surface concentrations and total atmospheric columns. There is a strong correlation between observed sulfate and eBC concentrations with consistent sulfate/eBC slopes found for all Arctic stations, indicating that the sources contributing to sulfate and BC are similar throughout the Arctic and that the aerosols are internally mixed and undergo similar removal. However, only three models reproduced this finding, whereas sulfate and BC are weakly correlated in the other models. Overall, no class of models (e.g., CTMs, CCMs) performed better than the others and differences are independent of model resolution.

A new method for the characterisation and verification of local spatial predictability for convective scale ensembles

The use of kilometre-scale ensembles in operational forecasting provides new challenges for forecast interpretation and evaluation to account for uncertainty on the convective scale. A new neighbourhood based method is presented for evaluating and characterising the local predictability variations from convective scale ensembles. Spatial scales over which ensemble forecasts agree (agreement scales, S^A) are calculated at each grid point ij, providing a map of the spatial agreement between forecasts. By comparing the average agreement scale obtained from ensemble member pairs (S^A(mm)_ij), with that between members and radar observations (S^A(mo)_ij), this approach allows the location-dependent spatial spread-skill relationship of the ensemble to be assessed. The properties of the agreement scales are demonstrated using an idealised experiment. To demonstrate the methods in an operational context the S^A(mm)_ij and S^A(mo)_ij are calculated for six convective cases run with the Met Office UK Ensemble Prediction System. The S^A(mm)_ij highlight predictability differences between cases, which can be linked to physical processes. Maps of S^A(mm)_ij are found to summarise the spatial predictability in a compact and physically meaningful manner that is useful for forecasting and for model interpretation. Comparison of S^A(mm)_ij and S^A(mo)_ij demonstrates the case-by-case and temporal variability of the spatial spread-skill, which can again be linked to physical processes.

Evaluation on the effectiveness of actions for controlling infestation by rodents in Campo Limpo region, Sao Paulo Municipality, Brazil

Rodents are responsible for the transmission of more than 60 diseases both to human beings and to domestic animals. The increase in rodent infestation in a given area brings several health problems to the nearby population. Thus, when infestation increases, it is time to take intervention measures. Although many countries have implemented programs aimed at controlling rodent infestation, literature on studies evaluating the effectiveness of intervention measures in urban areas is scarce. Aimed at contributing to the understanding of rodents` population dynamics in urban areas, the objective of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the control methods proposed by ""Programa de Vigilancia e Controle de Roedores do Municipio de Sao Paulo`` (Program for Rodents Surveillance and Control in Sao Paulo Municipality), conducted on Jardim Comercial District. As a first step, a survey to assess infestation rates was conducted in 1529 dwellings located in the area studied. After that, a chemical control upon rodents was accomplished in every dwelling infested. One week and six months after completion of control measures, a new evaluation on infestation rates was carried out, in order to verify the effectiveness of the procedures taken and to estimate the re-infestation capacity. Initial infestation rate was 40.0%, and the final infestation rate, 14.4%. Therefore, the effectiveness of the control methods utilized was 63.8%. It can thus be concluded that the control methods applied were quite effective.

Adding Value to the Meat of Spent Laying Hens Manufacturing Sausages with a Healthy Appeal

The aim of this study was to evaluate the viability of the use of spent laying hens` meat in the manufacturing of mortadella-type sausages with healthy appeal by using vegetable oil instead of animal fat. 120 Hy-line (R) layer hens were distributed in a completely randomized design into two treatments of six replicates with ten birds each. The treatments were birds from light Hy-line (R) W36 and semi-heavy Hy-line (R) Brown lines. Cold carcass, wing, breast and leg fillets yields were determined. Dry matter, protein, and lipid contents were determined in breast and leg fillets. The breast and legg fillets of three replicates per treatment were used to manufacture mortadella. After processing, sausages were evaluated for proximal composition, objective color, microbiological parameters, fatty acid profile and sensory acceptance. The meat of light and semi-heavy spent hens presented good yield and composition, allowing it to be used as raw material for the manufacture of processed products. Mortadellas were safe from microbiological point of view, and those made with semi-heavy hens fillets were redder and better accepted by consumers. Values for all sensory attributes were evaluated over score 5 (neither liked nor disliked). Both products presented high polyunsaturated fatty acid contents and good polyunsaturated to saturated fatty acid ratio. The excellent potential for the use of meat from spent layer hens of both varieties in the manufacturing of healthier mortadella-type sausage was demonstrated.

Inconclusive results in conventional serological screening for Chagas` disease in blood banks: evaluation of cellular and humoral response

To find the most reliable screening method for Trypanosoma cruzi infection in blood banks. Epidemiological data, lymphoproliferation assay, parasitological, conventional serological tests: immunofluorescence, haemagglutination, ELISA with epimastigote and trypomastigote antigens and reference serological tests: trypomastigote excreted-secreted antigens (TESA) blot and chemiluminescent ELISA assay with mucine from trypomastigote forms were applied to individuals with inconclusive serology, non-chagasic individuals and chronic chagasic patients. TESA blot had the best performance when used as a single test in all the groups. In the inconclusive group 20.5% of individuals were positive for TESA blot, 23.3% for either lymphoproliferation or TESA blot, and 17.8% for lymphoproliferation only. Positive lymphoproliferation without detectable antibodies was observed in 5.47% of all inconclusive serology cases. Analysis of six parameters (three serological assays, at least one parasitological test, one lymphoproliferation assay and epidemiological data) in the inconclusive group showed that diagnosis of Chagas` disease was probable in 15 patients who were positive by two or more serological tests or for whom three of those six parameters were positive. TESA blot is a good confirmatory test for Chagas` disease in the inconclusive group. Although lymphoproliferation suggests the diagnosis of Chagas` disease in the absence of antibodies when associated with a high epidemiological risk of acquiring Chagas` disease, the data from this study and the characteristics of the lymphoproliferation assay (which is both laborious and time-consuming) do not support its use as a confirmatory test in blood-bank screening. However, our findings underscore the need to develop alternative methods that are not based on antibody detection to improve the diagnosis when serological tests are inconclusive.

Design/Evaluation of A Methodology For Performance Optimization Of Indexable Carbide Inserts

In this project, two broad facets in the design of a methodology for performance optimization of indexable carbide inserts were examined. They were physical destructive testing and software simulation.For the physical testing, statistical research techniques were used for the design of the methodology. A five step method which began with Problem definition, through System identification, Statistical model formation, Data collection and Statistical analyses and results was indepthly elaborated upon. Set-up and execution of an experiment with a compression machine together with roadblocks and possible solution to curb road blocks to quality data collection were examined. 2k factorial design was illustrated and recommended for process improvement. Instances of first-order and second-order response surface analyses were encountered. In the case of curvature, test for curvature significance with center point analysis was recommended. Process optimization with method of steepest ascent and central composite design or process robustness studies of response surface analyses were also recommended.For the simulation test, AdvantEdge program was identified as the most used software for tool development. Challenges to the efficient application of this software were identified and possible solutions proposed. In conclusion, software simulation and physical testing were recommended to meet the objective of the project.

PANA V : Evaluation of a Literacy Project

PANA V Evaluation of a Literacy ProjectSUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONSThis evaluation set out to explore the impact of the literacy work carried out through PANA V. It focussed on clarifying effects such as empowerment and poverty reduction in relation to the civil society. Two specific objectives were to evaluate the methodological approach and the didactic materials and to evaluate the sustainability of the project.Although the focus of the evaluation has been PANA V, the project has been evaluated in its context, as one in a series of five projects located in Rwanda ten years after the war and genocide. The conclusion will consider future plans in this field.The evaluator has striven to create a holistic picture of the effects of the project, although the given time for the evaluation was short. Only three weeks were spent in the field study and only ten days in the actual field. Although there were some organisational and logistic problems, as is common when carrying out a study like this in a poor country, many literacy sites were visited and quite many participators were interviewed. The overall impression from the study is overwhelmingly positive. So many people commit themselves in this task of teaching Rwandans reading, writing and numeracy. Despite harsh conditions learners strive to learn and group leaders devote themselves to the task. Many leaders on different levels try their very best to manage their difficult and demanding task. The main objective was to explore the impact of the project on poverty reduction, particularly on empowerment and strategies for everyday life. Women were to be regarded particularly. From the results it is clear that the project has a strong, positive impact both on poverty reduction and empowerment of marginalised groups. Among those who have benefited from the alphabetisation are mainly women. Unfortunately, when it comes to leaders in PANA, who may also be said to have benefited from the project, only a small minority is women. This is something that is recommended that it be reconsidered inside the organisation. As a majority of the targeted learners are women, and as the economic and social situation of women in Rwanda is generally weak, this is a question that I recommend the Pentesostal church and ADEPR to look particularly into. With many women being single breadwinners of their households, it is important that also women get access to positions that may bring benefits of different kind.It is also clear that the project has positive effects for the civil society. In the present situation in Rwanda, during the process of reconciliation and rapid progress, basic education for the poor majority is a democratic issue. In a country with a plethora of internet-cafés in the capital and a small minority that use cars and mobile-telephones to communicate nation-wide, it is of outmost importance that the majority acquires basic education, of which literacy is a central part. To strengthen the civil society in Rwanda literacy is important. One central issue is then that Rwanda develops toward becoming a country where literacy is used for the benefit of the citizens and it is a democratic issue that all citizens get an opportunity to participate. Crucial for this is that strong efforts are put into primary schools nation-wide. Literacy projects for adults, like PANA, may only complement these efforts, but they constitute important and necessary complements. Other relevant ways to promote literacy are campaigns in Radio and TV and through cultural events such as festivals, music and theatre. News papers, magazines and books are natural parts of such campaigns as well as adult education. As stated under the results not much can be said about the didactics in this evaluation. On the whole the methodology and the materials fill their function well and receive a high reputation. As people learn to read and write under very simple conditions, obviously the approach is appropriate. A few suggestions may be given from the study:•Focus groups leaders’ attention on clearness, that they show very clearly what is to be read. Good structuring is probably of great importance for many learners.•Make clear what is tested in the tests and consider the possibility to use a holistic test that would be more congruent with the methodology. The possibility to use only one grade, pass, would enable a more practical test, such as reading a short, relevant text, writing something relevant and solving practical mathematic problems. Avoid tests that demand school knowledge.•Avoid using methaphors such as “fight against illiteracy” and connections between illiteracy/literacy and darkness/light. It is not true that illiteracy causes bad things and that literacy only brings good. •Be prepared that it may be more difficult in the future to achieve the goals as it may be the case that the early learners where the ones who achieved easily. The goal of “literacy in six month” in PANA will probably hold only for some learners but also those who do not manage in six months need literacy skills.A third objective was to secure sustainability. As for sustainability of the project in itself, and of the literacy process, the main conclusion is that there is a good potential. The commitment and devotedness among many involved in PANA proves good. One weakness is individual leaders in ADEPR who do not see this as an important task for the Pentecostal church in Rwanda. Other weaknesses are the unwillingness to mention explicitly the wish, for example among group leaders, to get some kind of incentive and the fear of loosing believers by cooperation with other organisations. A higher degree of transparency in this issue would probably solve some irritations and tensions.As for the sustainability of the literacy skills much may be done to improve. The acquired skills seem to be comparably relevant. The level achieved, and the level tested, may be defined as basic literacy skills, consisting of basic reading, writing and numeracy skills. However, these skills are very restricted and there is a high risk that the skills will decline, which means that there is a high risk that people will forget how to read and write because of lack of exercising. From these conclusions a few suggestions for future development will be given.

Process evaluation of a knowledge translation intervention using facilitation of local stakeholder groups to improve neonatal survival in the Quang Ninh province, Vietnam

BACKGROUND: Annually, 2.8 million neonatal deaths occur worldwide, despite the fact that three-quarters of them could be prevented if available evidence-based interventions were used. Facilitation of community groups has been recognized as a promising method to translate knowledge into practice. In northern Vietnam, the Neonatal Health - Knowledge Into Practice trial evaluated facilitation of community groups (2008-2011) and succeeded in reducing the neonatal mortality rate (adjusted odds ratio, 0.51; 95 % confidence interval 0.30-0.89). The aim of this paper is to report on the process (implementation and mechanism of impact) of this intervention. METHODS: Process data were excerpted from diary information from meetings with facilitators and intervention groups, and from supervisor records of monthly meetings with facilitators. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. An evaluation including attributes and skills of facilitators (e.g., group management, communication, and commitment) was performed at the end of the intervention using a six-item instrument. Odds ratios were analyzed, adjusted for cluster randomization using general linear mixed models. RESULTS: To ensure eight active facilitators over 3 years, 11 Women's Union representatives were recruited and trained. Of the 44 intervention groups, composed of health staff and commune stakeholders, 43 completed their activities until the end of the study. In total, 95 % (n = 1508) of the intended monthly meetings with an intervention group and a facilitator were conducted. The overall attendance of intervention group members was 86 %. The groups identified 32 unique problems and implemented 39 unique actions. The identified problems targeted health issues concerning both women and neonates. Actions implemented were mainly communication activities. Communes supported by a group with a facilitator who was rated high on attributes and skills (n = 27) had lower odds of neonatal mortality (odds ratio, 0.37; 95 % confidence interval, 0.19-0.73) than control communes (n = 46). CONCLUSIONS: This evaluation identified several factors that might have influenced the outcomes of the trial: continuity of intervention groups' work, adequate attributes and skills of facilitators, and targeting problems along a continuum of care. Such factors are important to consider in scaling-up efforts.

Enforcement in environmental law: an economic analysis of citizen suits

Previous to 1970, state and federal agencies held exclusive enforcement responsibilities over the violation of pollution control standards. However, recognizing that the government had neither the time nor resources to provide full enforcement, Congress created citizen suits. Citizen suits, first amended to the Clean Air Act in 1970, authorize citizens to act as private attorney generals and to sue polluters for violating the terms of their operating permits. Since that time, Congress has included citizen suits in 13 other federal statutes. The citizen suit phenomenon is sufficiently new that little is known about it. However, we do know that citizen suits have increased rapidly since the early 1980's. Between 1982 and 1986 the number of citizen suits jumped from 41 to 266. Obviously, they are becoming a widely used method of enforcing the environmental statutes. This paper will provide a detailed description, analysis and evaluation of citizen suits. It will begin with an introduction and will then move on to provide some historic and descriptive background on such issues as how citizen suit powers are delegated, what limitations are placed on the citizens, what parties are on each side of the suit, what citizens can enforce against, and the types of remedies available. The following section of the paper will provide an economic analysis of citizen suits. It will begin with a discussion of non-profit organizations, especially non-profit environmental organizations, detailing the economic factors which instigate their creation and activities. Three models will be developed to investigate the evolution and effects of citizen suits. The first model will provide an analysis of the demand for citizen suits from the point of view of a potential litigator showing how varying remedies, limitations and reimbursement procedures can effect both the level and types of activities undertaken. The second model shows how firm behavior could be expected to respond to citizen suits. Finally, a third model will look specifically at the issue of efficiency to determine whether the introduction of citizen enforcement leads to greater or lesser economic efficiency in pollution control. The database on which the analysis rests consists of 1205 cases compiled by the author. For the purposes of this project this list of citizen suit cases and their attributes were computerized and used to test a series of hypotheses derived from three original economic models. The database includes information regarding plaintiffs, defendants date notice and/or complaint was filed and statutes involved in the claim. The analysis focuses on six federal environmental statutes (Clean Water Act} Resource Conservation and Recovery Act, Comprehensive Environmental Response Compensation and Liability Act, Clean Air Act, Toxic Substances Control Act, and Safe Drinking Water Act) because the majority of citizen suits have occurred under these statutes.