897 resultados para Simulation-based methods


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In Iran, both Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparum malaria have been detected, but P. vivax is the predominant species. Point mutations in dihydrofolate reductase (dhfr) gene in both Plasmodia are the major mechanisms of pyrimethamine resistance. From April 2007 to June 2009, a total of 134 blood samples in two endemic areas of southern Iran were collected from patients infected with P. vivax and P. falciparum. The isolates were analyzed for P. vivax dihydrofolate reductase (pvdhfr) and P. falciparum dihydrofolate reductase (pfdhfr) point mutations using various PCR-based methods. The majority of the isolates (72.9%) had wild type amino acids at five codons of pvdhfr. Amongst mutant isolates, the most common pvdhfr alleles were double mutant in 58 and 117 amino acids (58R-117N). Triple mutation in 57, 58, and 117 amino acids (57L/58R/117N) was identified for the first time in the pvdhfr gene of Iranian P. vivax isolates. All the P. falciparumsamples analyzed (n = 16) possessed a double mutant pfdhfrallele (59R/108N) and retained a wild-type mutation at position 51. This may be attributed to the fact that the falciparum malaria patients were treated using sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) in Iran. The presence of mutant haplotypes in P. vivax is worrying, but has not yet reached an alarming threshold regarding drugs such as SP. The results of this study reinforce the importance of performing a molecular surveillance by means of a continuous chemoresistance assessment.

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The Corporate world is becoming more and more competitive. This leads organisations to adapt to this reality, by adopting more efficient processes, which result in a decrease in cost as well as an increase of product quality. One of these processes consists in making proposals to clients, which necessarily include a cost estimation of the project. This estimation is the main focus of this project. In particular, one of the goals is to evaluate which estimation models fit the Altran Portugal software factory the most, the organization where the fieldwork of this thesis will be carried out. There is no broad agreement about which is the type of estimation model more suitable to be used in software projects. Concerning contexts where there is plenty of objective information available to be used as input to an estimation model, model-based methods usually yield better results than the expert judgment. However, what happens more frequently is not having this volume and quality of information, which has a negative impact in the model-based methods performance, favouring the usage of expert judgement. In practice, most organisations use expert judgment, making themselves dependent on the expert. A common problem found is that the performance of the expert’s estimation depends on his previous experience with identical projects. This means that when new types of projects arrive, the estimation will have an unpredictable accuracy. Moreover, different experts will make different estimates, based on their individual experience. As a result, the company will not directly attain a continuous growing knowledge about how the estimate should be carried. Estimation models depend on the input information collected from previous projects, the size of the project database and the resources available. Altran currently does not store the input information from previous projects in a systematic way. It has a small project database and a team of experts. Our work is targeted to companies that operate in similar contexts. We start by gathering information from the organisation in order to identify which estimation approaches can be applied considering the organization’s context. A gap analysis is used to understand what type of information the company would have to collect so that other approaches would become available. Based on our assessment, in our opinion, expert judgment is the most adequate approach for Altran Portugal, in the current context. We analysed past development and evolution projects from Altran Portugal and assessed their estimates. This resulted in the identification of common estimation deviations, errors, and patterns, which lead to the proposal of metrics to help estimators produce estimates leveraging past projects quantitative and qualitative information in a convenient way. This dissertation aims to contribute to more realistic estimates, by identifying shortcomings in the current estimation process and supporting the self-improvement of the process, by gathering as much relevant information as possible from each finished project.

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The chemical structure of lipoprotein (a) is similar to that of LDL, from which it differs due to the presence of apolipoprotein (a) bound to apo B100 via one disulfide bridge. Lipoprotein (a) is synthesized in the liver and its plasma concentration, which can be determined by use of monoclonal antibody-based methods, ranges from < 1 mg to > 1,000 mg/dL. Lipoprotein (a) levels over 20-30 mg/dL are associated with a two-fold risk of developing coronary artery disease. Usually, black subjects have higher lipoprotein (a) levels that, differently from Caucasians and Orientals, are not related to coronary artery disease. However, the risk of black subjects must be considered. Sex and age have little influence on lipoprotein (a) levels. Lipoprotein (a) homology with plasminogen might lead to interference with the fibrinolytic cascade, accounting for an atherogenic mechanism of that lipoprotein. Nevertheless, direct deposition of lipoprotein (a) on arterial wall is also a possible mechanism, lipoprotein (a) being more prone to oxidation than LDL. Most prospective studies have confirmed lipoprotein (a) as a predisposing factor to atherosclerosis. Statin treatment does not lower lipoprotein (a) levels, differently from niacin and ezetimibe, which tend to reduce lipoprotein (a), although confirmation of ezetimibe effects is pending. The reduction in lipoprotein (a) concentrations has not been demonstrated to reduce the risk for coronary artery disease. Whenever higher lipoprotein (a) concentrations are found, and in the absence of more effective and well-tolerated drugs, a more strict and vigorous control of the other coronary artery disease risk factors should be sought.

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Material flow simulation, Simulation-based Early Warning System, Discrete Event Simulation, Production Planning and Control, Automotive Industry, Forecast of Future System States, Monitoring Systems

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INTRODUCTION: Timely diagnosis of invasive candidiasis (IC) remains difficult as the clinical presentation is not specific and blood cultures lack sensitivity and need a long incubation time. Thus, non-culture-based methods for diagnosing IC have been developed. Mannan antigen (Mn) and anti-mannan antibodies (A-Mn) are present in patients with IC. On behalf of the Third European Conference on Infections in Leukemia, the performance of these tests was analysed and reviewed. METHODS: The literature was searched for studies using the commercially available sandwich enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (Platelia™, Bio-Rad Laboratories, Marnes-la-Coquette, France) for detecting Mn and A-Mn in serum. The target condition of this review was IC defined according to 2008 European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer/Mycoses Study Group criteria. Sensitivity, specificity and diagnostic odds ratios (DOR) were calculated for Mn, A-Mn and combined Mn/A-Mn testing. RESULTS: Overall, 14 studies that comprised 453 patients and 767 controls were reviewed. The patient populations included in the studies were mainly haematological and cancer cases in seven studies and mainly intensive care unit and surgery cases in the other seven studies. All studies but one were retrospective in design. Mn sensitivity was 58% (95% confidence interval [CI], 53-62); specificity, 93% (95% CI, 91-94) and DOR, 18 (95% CI 12-28). A-Mn sensitivity was 59% (95% CI, 54-65); specificity, 83% (95% CI, 79-97) and DOR, 12 (95% CI 7-21). Combined Mn/A-Mn sensitivity was 83% (95% CI, 79-87); specificity, 86% (95% CI, 82-90) and DOR, 58 (95% CI 27-122). Significant heterogeneity of the studies was detected. The sensitivity of both Mn and A-Mn varied for different Candida species, and it was the highest for C. albicans, followed by C. glabrata and C. tropicalis. In 73% of 45 patients with candidemia, at least one of the serological tests was positive before the culture results, with mean time advantage being 6 days for Mn and 7 days for A-Mn. In 21 patients with hepatosplenic IC, 18 (86%) had Mn or A-Mn positive test results at a median of 16 days before radiological detection of liver or spleen lesions. CONCLUSIONS: Mn and A-Mn are useful for diagnosis of IC. The performance of combined Mn/A-Mn testing is superior to either Mn or A-Mn testing.

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El projecte exposat té com a propòsit definir i implementar un model de simulació basat en la coordinació i assignació dels serveis d’emergència en accidents de trànsit. La definició del model s’ha realitzat amb l’ús de les Xarxes de Petri Acolorides i la implementació amb el software Rockwell Arena 7.0. El modelatge de la primera simulació ens mostra un model teòric basat en cues mentre que el segon, mostra un model més complet i real gràcies a la connexió mitjançant la plataforma Corba a una base de dades amb informació geogràfica de les flotes i de les rutes. Com a resultat de l’estudi i amb l’ajuda de GoogleEarth, podem realitzar simulacions gràfiques per veure els accidents generats, les flotes dels serveis i el moviment dels vehicles des de les bases fins als accidents.

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This paper uses forecasts from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters to investigate the relationship between inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area. We use theoretical structures based on the New Keynesian and Neoclassical Phillips curves to inform our empirical work. Given the relatively short data span of the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the need to control for many explanatory variables, we use dynamic model averaging in order to ensure a parsimonious econometric speci cation. We use both regression-based and VAR-based methods. We find no support for the backward looking behavior embedded in the Neo-classical Phillips curve. Much more support is found for the forward looking behavior of the New Keynesian Phillips curve, but most of this support is found after the beginning of the financial crisis.

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The widespread misuse of drugs has increased the number of multiresistant bacteria, and this means that tools that can rapidly detect and characterize bacterial response to antibiotics are much needed in the management of infections. Various techniques, such as the resazurin-reduction assays, the mycobacterial growth indicator tube or polymerase chain reaction-based methods, have been used to investigate bacterial metabolism and its response to drugs. However, many are relatively expensive or unable to distinguish between living and dead bacteria. Here we show that the fluctuations of highly sensitive atomic force microscope cantilevers can be used to detect low concentrations of bacteria, characterize their metabolism and quantitatively screen (within minutes) their response to antibiotics. We applied this methodology to Escherichia coli and Staphylococcus aureus, showing that live bacteria produced larger cantilever fluctuations than bacteria exposed to antibiotics. Our preliminary experiments suggest that the fluctuation is associated with bacterial metabolism.

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Species delimitation has been invigorated as a discipline in systematics by an influx of new character sets, analytical methods, and conceptual advances. We use genetic data from 68 markers, combined with distributional, bioclimatic, and coloration information, to hypothesize boundaries of evolutionarily independent lineages (species) within the widespread and highly variable nominal fire ant species Solenopsis saevissima, a member of a species group containing invasive pests as well as species that are models for ecological and evolutionary research. Our integrated approach uses diverse methods of analysis to sequentially test whether populations meet specific operational criteria (contingent properties) for candidacy as morphologically cryptic species, including genetic clustering, monophyly, reproductive isolation, and occupation of distinctive niche space. We hypothesize that nominal S. saevissima comprises at least 4-6 previously unrecognized species, including several pairs whose parapatric distributions implicate the development of intrinsic premating or postmating barriers to gene flow. Our genetic data further suggest that regional genetic differentiation in S. saevissima has been influenced by hybridization with other nominal species occurring in sympatry or parapatry, including the quite distantly related Solenopsis geminata. The results of this study illustrate the importance of employing different classes of genetic data (coding and noncoding regions and nuclear and mitochondrial DNA [mtDNA] markers), different methods of genetic data analysis (tree-based and non-tree based methods), and different sources of data (genetic, morphological, and ecological data) to explicitly test various operational criteria for species boundaries in clades of recently diverged lineages, while warning against over reliance on any single data type (e.g., mtDNA sequence variation) when drawing inferences.

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Objective: The aim of this study was to determine the smallest changes in health-related quality of life (HRQOL) scores in the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer quality of life questionnaire (EORTC QLQ-C30) and the EORTC Brain Cancer Module (QLQ-BN20), which could be considered as clinically meaningful in brain cancer patients. Methods: World Health Organization (WHO) performance status (PS) and the Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) were used as clinical anchors to determine minimal clinically important differences (MCID) in HRQOL change scores (range 0 - 100) in the EORTC QLQ-C30 and QLQ-BN20. Anchor-based MCID estimates less than 0.2SD (small effect) were not recommended for interpretation. Other selected distribution-based methods were also used for comparison purposes. Results: Based on WHO PS, our findings support the following whole number estimates of the MCID for improvement and deterioration respectively: physical functioning (6, 9), role functioning (14, 12), cognitive functioning (8, 8), global health status (7, 4*), fatigue (12, 9) and motor dysfunction (4*, 5). Anchoring with MMSE, cognitive functioning MCID estimates for improvement and deterioration were (11, 2*) and those for communication deficit were (9, 7). The estimates with asterisks were less that the set 0.2 SD threshold and are therefore not recommended for interpretation. Our MCID estimates therefore range from 5-14. Conclusion: These estimates can help clinicians to evaluate changes in HRQOL over time and, in conjunction with other measures of efficacy, help to assess the value of a health care intervention or to compare treatments. Furthermore, the estimates can be useful in determining sample sizes in the design of future clinical trials.

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About one third of the world population is infected with tubercle bacilli, causing eight million new cases of tuberculosis (TB) and three million deaths each year. After years of lack of interest in the disease, World Health Organization recently declared TB a global emergency and it is clear that there is need for more efficient national TB programs and newly defined research priorities. A more complete epidemiology of tuberculosis will lead to a better identification of index cases and to a more efficient treatment of the disease. Recently, new molecular tools became available for the identification of strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tuberculosis), allowing a better recognition of transmission routes of defined strains. Both a standardized restriction-fragment-length-polymorphism-based methodology for epidemiological studies on a large scale and deoxyribonucleic acids (DNA) amplification-based methods that allow rapid detection of outbreaks with multidrug-resistant (MDR) strains, often characterized by high mortality rates, have been developed. This review comments on the existing methods of DNA-based recognition of M. tuberculosis strains and their peculiarities. It also summarizes literature data on the application of molecular fingerprinting for detection of outbreaks of M. tuberculosis, for identification of index cases, for study of interaction between TB and infection with the human immunodeficiency virus, for analysis of the behavior of MDR strains, for a better understanding of risk factors for transmission of TB within communities and for population-based studies of TB transmission within and between countries

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This paper presents an analysis of motor vehicle insurance claims relating to vehicle damage and to associated medical expenses. We use univariate severity distributions estimated with parametric and non-parametric methods. The methods are implemented using the statistical package R. Parametric analysis is limited to estimation of normal and lognormal distributions for each of the two claim types. The nonparametric analysis presented involves kernel density estimation. We illustrate the benefits of applying transformations to data prior to employing kernel based methods. We use a log-transformation and an optimal transformation amongst a class of transformations that produces symmetry in the data. The central aim of this paper is to provide educators with material that can be used in the classroom to teach statistical estimation methods, goodness of fit analysis and importantly statistical computing in the context of insurance and risk management. To this end, we have included in the Appendix of this paper all the R code that has been used in the analysis so that readers, both students and educators, can fully explore the techniques described

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Abstract : Copy number variation (CNV) of DNA segments has recently gained considerable interest as a source of genetic variation likely to play a role in phenotypic diversity and evolution. Much effort has been put into the identification and mapping of regions that vary in copy number among seemingly normal individuals, both in humans and in a number of model organisms, using both bioinformatic and hybridization-based methods. Synteny studies suggest the existence of CNV hotspots in mammalian genomes, often in connection with regions of segmental duplication. CNV alleles can be in equilibrium within a population, but can also arise de novo between generations, illustrating the highly dynamic nature of these regions. A small number of studies have assessed the effect of CNV on single loci, however, at the genome-wide scale, the functional impact of CNV remains poorly studied. We have explored the influence of CNV on gene expression, first using the Williams-Beuren syndrome (WBS) associated deletion as a model, and second at the genome-wide scale in inbred mouse strains. We found that the WBS deletion influences the expression levels not only of the hemizygous genes, but also affects the euploid genes mapping nearby. Consistently, on a genome wide scale we observe that CNV genes are expressed at more variable levels than genes that do not vary in copy number. Likewise, CNVs influence the relative expression levels of genes that map to the flank of the genome rearrangements, thus globally influencing tissue transcriptomes. Further studies are warranted to complete cataloguing and fine mapping of CNV regions, as well as to elucidate the different mechanisms by which CNVs influence gene expression. Résumé : La variation en nombre de copies (copy number variation ou CNV) de segments d'ADN suscite un intérêt en tant que variation génétique susceptible de jouer un r81e dans la diversité phénotypique et l'évolution. Les régions variables en nombre de copies parmi des individus apparemment normaux ont été cartographiées et cataloguées au moyen de puces à ADN et d'analyse bioinformatique. L'étude de la synténie entre plusieurs espèces de mammifères laisse supposer l'existence de régions à haut taux de variation, souvent liées à des duplications segmentaires. Les allèles CNV peuvent être en équilibre au sein d'une population ou peuvent apparaître de novo. Ces faits illustrent la nature hautement dynamique de ces régions. Quelques études se sont penchées sur l'effet de la variation en nombre de copies de loci isolés, cependant l'impact de ce phénomène n'a pas été étudié à l'échelle génomique. Nous avons examiné l'influence des CNV sur l'expression des gènes. Dans un premier temps nous avons utilisé la délétion associée au syndrome de Williams-Beuren (WBS), puis, dans un second temps, nous avons poursuivi notre étude à l'échelle du génome, dans des lignées consanguines de souris. Nous avons établi que la délétion WBS influence l'expression non seulement des gènes hémizygotes, mais également celle des gènes euploïdes voisins. A l'échelle génomique, nous observons des phénomènes concordants. En effet, l'expression des gènes variant en nombre de copies est plus variable que celles des gènes ne variant pas. De plus, à l'instar de la délétion WBS, les CNV influencent l'expression des gènes adjacents, exerçant ainsi un impact global sur les profils d'expression dans les tissus. Résumé pour un large public : De nombreuses maladies ont pour cause un défaut génétique. Parmi les types de mutations, on compte la disparition (délétion) d'une partie de notre génome ou sa duplication. Bien que l'on connaisse les anomalies associées à certaines maladies, les mécanismes moléculaires par lesquels ces réarrangements de notre matériel génétique induisent les maladies sont encore méconnus. C'est pourquoi nous nous sommes intéressés à la régulation des gènes dans les régions susceptibles à délétion ou duplication. Dans ce travail, nous avons démontré que les délétions et les duplications influencent la régulation des gènes situés à proximité, et que ces changements interviennent dans plusieurs organes.

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BACKGROUND: Accurate catalogs of structural variants (SVs) in mammalian genomes are necessary to elucidate the potential mechanisms that drive SV formation and to assess their functional impact. Next generation sequencing methods for SV detection are an advance on array-based methods, but are almost exclusively limited to four basic types: deletions, insertions, inversions and copy number gains. RESULTS: By visual inspection of 100 Mbp of genome to which next generation sequence data from 17 inbred mouse strains had been aligned, we identify and interpret 21 paired-end mapping patterns, which we validate by PCR. These paired-end mapping patterns reveal a greater diversity and complexity in SVs than previously recognized. In addition, Sanger-based sequence analysis of 4,176 breakpoints at 261 SV sites reveal additional complexity at approximately a quarter of structural variants analyzed. We find micro-deletions and micro-insertions at SV breakpoints, ranging from 1 to 107 bp, and SNPs that extend breakpoint micro-homology and may catalyze SV formation. CONCLUSIONS: An integrative approach using experimental analyses to train computational SV calling is essential for the accurate resolution of the architecture of SVs. We find considerable complexity in SV formation; about a quarter of SVs in the mouse are composed of a complex mixture of deletion, insertion, inversion and copy number gain. Computational methods can be adapted to identify most paired-end mapping patterns.

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BACKGROUND: Despite the continuous production of genome sequence for a number of organisms, reliable, comprehensive, and cost effective gene prediction remains problematic. This is particularly true for genomes for which there is not a large collection of known gene sequences, such as the recently published chicken genome. We used the chicken sequence to test comparative and homology-based gene-finding methods followed by experimental validation as an effective genome annotation method. RESULTS: We performed experimental evaluation by RT-PCR of three different computational gene finders, Ensembl, SGP2 and TWINSCAN, applied to the chicken genome. A Venn diagram was computed and each component of it was evaluated. The results showed that de novo comparative methods can identify up to about 700 chicken genes with no previous evidence of expression, and can correctly extend about 40% of homology-based predictions at the 5' end. CONCLUSIONS: De novo comparative gene prediction followed by experimental verification is effective at enhancing the annotation of the newly sequenced genomes provided by standard homology-based methods.