Diagnosing links between atmospheric moisture and extreme daily precipitation over the UK

Atmospheric moisture characteristics associated with the heaviest 1% of daily rainfall events affecting regions of the British Isles are analysed over the period 1997–2008. A blended satellite/rain-gauge data set (GPCP-1DD) and regionally averaged daily rain-gauge observations (HadUKP) are combined with the ERA Interim reanalysis. These are compared with simulations from the HadGEM2-A climate model which applied observed sea surface temperature and realistic radiative forcings. Median extreme daily rainfall across the identified events and locations is larger for GPCP (32 mm day−1) than HadUKP and the simulations (∼25 mm day−1). The heaviest observed and simulated daily rainfall events are associated with increased specific humidity and horizontal transport of moisture (median 850 hPa specific humidity of ∼6 g kg−1 and vapour transport of ∼150 g kg−1 m s−1 for both observed and simulated events). Extreme daily rainfall events are less common during spring and summer across much of the British Isles, but in the south east region, they contribute up to 60% of the total number of distinct extreme daily rainfall events during these months. Compared to winter events, the summer events over south east Britain are associated with a greater magnitude and more southerly location of moisture maxima and less spatially extensive regions of enhanced moisture transport. This contrasting dependence of extreme daily rainfall on moisture characteristics implies a range of driving mechanisms that depend upon location and season. Higher spatial and temporal resolution data are required to explore these processes further, which is vital in assessing future projected changes in rainfall and associated flooding.

The timing of anthropogenic emergence in simulated climate extremes

Determining the time of emergence of climates altered from their natural state by anthropogenic influences can help inform the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies to climate change. Previous studies have examined the time of emergence of climate averages. However, at the global scale, the emergence of changes in extreme events, which have the greatest societal impacts, has not been investigated before. Based on state-of-the-art climate models, we show that temperature extremes generally emerge slightly later from their quasi-natural climate state than seasonal means, due to greater variability in extremes. Nevertheless, according to model evidence, both hot and cold extremes have already emerged across many areas. Remarkably, even precipitation extremes that have very large variability are projected to emerge in the coming decades in Northern Hemisphere winters associated with a wettening trend. Based on our findings we expect local temperature and precipitation extremes to already differ significantly from their previous quasi-natural state at many locations or to do so in the near future. Our findings have implications for climate impacts and detection and attribution studies assessing observed changes in regional climate extremes by showing whether they will likely find a fingerprint of anthropogenic climate change.

Seasonal surface urban energy balance and wintertime stability simulated using three land-surface models in the high-latitude city Helsinki

The performance of three urban land surface models, run in offline mode, with their default external parameters, is evaluated for two distinctly different sites in Helsinki: Torni and Kumpula. The former is a dense city centre site with 22% vegetation, while the latter is a suburban site with over 50% vegetation. At both locations the models are compared against sensible and latent heat fluxes measured using the eddy covariance technique, along with snow depth observations. The cold climate experienced by the city causes strong seasonal variations that include snow cover and stable atmospheric conditions. Most of the time the three models are able to account for the differences between the study areas as well as the seasonal and diurnal variability of the energy balance components. However, the performances are not systematic across the modelled components, season and surface type. The net all-wave radiation is well simulated, with the greatest uncertainties related to snowmelt timing, when the fraction of snow cover has a key role, particularly in determining the surface albedo. For the turbulent fluxes, more variation between the models is seen which can partly be explained by the different methods in their calculation and partly by surface parameter values. For the sensible heat flux, simulation of wintertime values was the main problem, which also leads to issues in predicting near-surface stabilities particularly at the dense city centre site. All models have the most difficulties in simulating latent heat flux. This study particularly emphasizes that improvements are needed in the parameterization of anthropogenic heat flux and thermal parameters in winter, snow cover in spring and evapotranspiration in order to improve the surface energy balance modelling in cold climate cities.

Evaluation of simulated sea-ice concentrations from sea-ice/ocean models using satellite data and polynya classification methods

Sea-ice concentrations in the Laptev Sea simulated by the coupled North Atlantic-Arctic Ocean-Sea-Ice Model and Finite Element Sea-Ice Ocean Model are evaluated using sea-ice concentrations from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System satellite data and a polynya classification method for winter 2007/08. While developed to simulate largescale sea-ice conditions, both models are analysed here in terms of polynya simulation. The main modification of both models in this study is the implementation of a landfast-ice mask. Simulated sea-ice fields from different model runs are compared with emphasis placed on the impact of this prescribed landfast-ice mask. We demonstrate that sea-ice models are not able to simulate flaw polynyas realistically when used without fast-ice description. Our investigations indicate that without landfast ice and with coarse horizontal resolution the models overestimate the fraction of open water in the polynya. This is not because a realistic polynya appears but due to a larger-scale reduction of ice concentrations and smoothed ice-concentration fields. After implementation of a landfast-ice mask, the polynya location is realistically simulated but the total open-water area is still overestimated in most cases. The study shows that the fast-ice parameterization is essential for model improvements. However, further improvements are necessary in order to progress from the simulation of large-scale features in the Arctic towards a more detailed simulation of smaller-scaled features (here polynyas) in an Arctic shelf sea.

Rapid selective separation of americium/curium from simulated nuclear forensic matrices using triazine ligands

In analysis of complex nuclear forensic samples containing lanthanides, actinides and matrix elements, rapid selective extraction of Am/Cm for quantification is challenging, in particular due the difficult separation of Am/Cm from lanthanides. Here we present a separation process for Am/Cm(III) which is achieved using a combination of AG1-X8 chromatography followed by Am/Cm extraction with a triazine ligand. The ligands tested in our process were CyMe4-BTPhen, CyMe4- BTBP, CA-BTP and CA-BTPhen. Our process allows for purification and quantification of Am and Cm (recoveries 80%–100%) and other major actinides in < 2d without the use of multiple columns or thiocyanate. The process is unaffected by high level Ca(II)/Fe(III)/Al(III) (10mg mL−1) and thus requires little pre-treatment of samples.

The effect of simulated flooding post-anthesis on pre-harvest sprouting and subsequent seed longevity in contrasting rice cultivars

Unpredictable flooding is a major constraint to rice production. It can occur at any growth stage. The effect of simulated flooding post-anthesis on yield and subsequent seed quality of pot-grown rice (Oryza sativa L.) plants was investigated in glasshouses and controlled-environment growth cabinets. Submergence post-anthesis (9-40 DAA) for 3 or 5 days reduced seed weight of japonica rice cv. Gleva, with considerable pre-harvest sprouting (up to 53%). The latter was greater the later in seed development and maturation that flooding occurred. Sprouted seed had poor ability to survive desiccation or germinate normally upon rehydration, whereas the effects of flooding on the subsequent air-dry seed storage longevity (p50) of the non-sprouted seed fraction was negligible. The indica rice cvs IR64 and IR64Sub1 (introgression of submergence tolerance gene Submergence1A-1) were both far more tolerant to flooding post-anthesis than cv. Gleva: four days’ submergence of these two near-isogenic cultivars at 10-40 DAA resulted less than 1% sprouted seeds. The presence of the Sub1A-1 allele in cv. IR64Sub1 was verified by gel electrophoresis and DNA sequencing. It had no harmful effect on loss in seed viability during storage compared with IR64 in both control and flooded environments. Moreover, the germinability and changes in dormancy during seed development and maturation were very similar to IR64. The efficiency of using chemical spray to increase seed dormancy was investigated in the pre-harvest sprouting susceptible rice cv. Gleva. Foliar application of molybdenum at 100 mg L-1 reduced sprouted seeds by 15-21% following 4 days’ submergence at 20-30 DAA. Analyses confirmed that the treatment did result in molybdenum uptake by the plants, and also tended to increase seed abscisic acid concentration. The latter was reduced by submergence and declined exponentially during grain ripening. The selection of submergence-tolerant varieties was more successful than application of molybdenum in reducing pre-harvest sprouting.

Comparative analysis of the fit of 3-unit implant-supported frameworks cast in nickel-chromium and cobalt-chromium alloys and commercially pure titanium after casting, laser welding, and simulated porcelain firings

This study compared the vertical misfit of 3-unit implant-supported nickel-chromium (Ni-Cr) and cobalt-chromium (Co-Cr) alloy and commercially pure titanium (cpTi) frameworks after casting as 1 piece, after sectioning and laser welding, and after simulated porcelain firings. The results on the tightened side showed no statistically significant differences. On the opposite side, statistically significant differences were found for Co-Cr alloy (118.64 mu m [SD: 91.48] to 39.90 mu m [SD: 27.13]) and cpTi (118.56 mu m [51.35] to 27.87 mu m [12.71]) when comparing 1-piece to laser-welded frameworks. With both sides tightened, only Co-Cr alloy showed statistically significant differences after laser welding. Ni-Cr alloy showed the lowest misfit values, though the differences were not statistically significantly different. Simulated porcelain firings revealed no significant differences.

Mosquito (Diptera: Culicidae) Diversity of a Forest-Fragment Mosaic in the Amazon Rain Forest

To study the impact of Amazonian forest fragmentation on the mosquito fauna, an inventory of Culicidae was conducted in the upland forest research areas of the Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project located 60 km north of Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil. The culicid community was sampled monthly between February 2002 and May 2003. CDC light traps, flight interception traps, manual aspiration, and net sweeping were used to capture adult specimens along the edges and within forest fragments of different sizes (1, 10, and 100 ha), in second-growth areas surrounding the fragments and around camps. We collected 5,204 specimens, distributed in 18 genera and 160 species level taxa. A list of mosquito taxa is presented with 145 species found in the survey, including seven new records for Brazil, 16 new records for the state of Amazonas, along with the 15 morphotypes that probably represent undescribed species. No exotic species [Aedes aegypti (L.) and Aedes albopictus (Skuse)] were found within the sampled areas. Several species collected are potential vectors of Plasmodium causing human malaria and of various arboviruses. The epidemiological and ecological implications of mosquito species found are discussed, and the results are compared with other mosquito inventories from the Amazon region.

The oscillatory bioelectrical signal from plants explained by a simulated electrical model and tested using Lempel-Ziv complexity

This paper demonstrates the oscillatory characteristics of electrical signals acquired from two ornamental plant types (Epipremnum pinnatum and Philodendron scandens - Family Araceae), using a noninvasive acquisition system. The electrical signal was recorded using Ag/AgCl superficial electrodes inside a Faraday cage. The presence of the oscillatory electric generator was shown using a classical power spectral density. The Lempel and Ziv complexity measurement showed that the plant signal was not noise despite its nonlinear behavior. The oscillatory characteristics of the signal were explained using a simulated electrical model that establishes that for a frequency range from 5 to 15 Hz, the oscillatory characteristic is higher than for other frequency ranges. All results show that non-invasive electrical plant signals can be acquired with improvement of signal-to-noise ratio using a Faraday cage, and a simple electrical model is able to explain the electrical signal being generated. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

South Atlantic Ocean cyclogenesis climatology simulated by regional climate model (RegCM3)

A detailed climatology of the cyclogenesis over the Southern Atlantic Ocean (SAO) from 1990 to 1999 and how it is simulated by the RegCM3 (Regional Climate Model) is presented here. The simulation used as initial and boundary conditions the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy (NCEP/DOE) reanalysis. The cyclones were identified with an automatic scheme that searches for cyclonic relative vorticity (zeta(10)) obtained from a 10-m height wind field. All the systems with zeta(10) a parts per thousand currency sign -1.5 x 10(-5) s(-1) and lifetime equal or larger than 24 h were considered in the climatology. Over SAO, in 10 years were detected 2,760 and 2,787 cyclogeneses in the simulation and NCEP, respectively, with an annual mean of 276.0 +/- A 11.2 and 278.7 +/- A 11.1. This result suggests that the RegCM3 has a good skill to simulate the cyclogenesis climatology. However, the larger model underestimations (-9.8%) are found for the initially stronger systems (zeta(10) a parts per thousand currency sign -2.5 x 10(-5) s(-1)). It was noted that over the SAO the annual cycle of the cyclogenesis depends of its initial intensity. Considering the systems initiate with zeta(10) a parts per thousand currency sign -1.5 x 10(-5) s(-1), the annual cycle is not well defined and the higher frequency occurs in the autumn (summer) in the NCEP (RegCM3). The stronger systems (zeta(10) a parts per thousand currency sign -2.5 x 10(-5) s(-1)) have a well-characterized high frequency of cyclogenesis during the winter in both NCEP and RegCM3. This work confirms the existence of three cyclogenetic regions in the west sector of the SAO, near the South America east coast and shows that RegCM3 is able to reproduce the main features of these cyclogenetic areas.

Atmospheric versus vegetation controls of Amazonian tropical rain forest evapotranspiration: Are the wet and seasonally dry rain forests any different?

This study analyzes evapotranspiration data for three wet and two seasonally dry rain forest sites in Amazonia. The main environmental (net radiation, vapor pressure deficit, and aerodynamic conductance) and vegetation (surface conductance) controls of evapotranspiration are also assessed. Our research supports earlier studies that demonstrate that evapotranspiration in the dry season is higher than that in the wet season and that surface net radiation is the main controller of evapotranspiration in wet equatorial sites. However, our analyses also indicate that there are different factors controlling the seasonality of evapotranspiration in wet equatorial rain forest sites and southern seasonally dry rain forests. While the seasonality of evapotranspiration in wet equatorial forests is driven solely by environmental factors, in seasonally dry forests, it is also biotically controlled with the surface conductance varying between seasons by a factor of approximately 2. The identification of these different drivers of evapotranspiration is a major step forward in our understanding of the water dynamics of tropical forests and has significant implications for the future development of vegetation-atmosphere models and land use and conservation planning in the region.

An assessment of the latent and sensible heat flux on the simulated regional climate over Southwestern South Atlantic Ocean

A Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) 10-year (1990-1999) simulation over southwestern South Atlantic Ocean (SAO) is evaluated to assess the mean climatology and the simulation errors of turbulent fluxes over the sea. Moreover, the relationship between these fluxes and the rainfall over some cyclogenetic areas is also analyzed. The RegCM3 results are validated using some reanalyses datasets (ERA40, R2, GPCP and WHOI). The summer and winter spatial patterns of latent and sensible heat fluxes simulated by the RegCM3 are in agreement with the reanalyses (WHOI, R2 and ERA40). They show large latent heat fluxes exchange in the subtropical SAO and at higher latitudes in the warm waters of Brazil Current. In particular, the magnitude of RegCM3 latent heat fluxes is similar to the WHOI, which is probably related to two factors: (a) small specific humidity bias, and (b) the RegCM3 flux algorithm. In contrast, the RegCM3 presents large overestimation of sensible heat flux, though it simulates well their spatial pattern. This simulation error is associated with the RegCM3 underestimation of the 2-m air temperature. In southwestern SAO, in three known cyclogenetic areas, the reanalyses and the RegCM3 show the existence of different physical mechanisms that control the annual cycles of latent/sensible heating and rainfall. It is shown that over the eastern coast of Uruguay (35A degrees-43A degrees S) and the southeastern coast of Argentina (44A degrees-52A degrees S) the sea-air moisture and heat exchange play an important role to control the annual cycle of precipitation. This does not happen on the south/southeastern coast of Brazil.

Expression pattern of four storage xyloglucan mobilization-related genes during seedling development of the rain forest tree Hymenaea courbaril L.

During seedling establishment, cotyledons of the rain forest tree Hymenaea courbaril mobilize storage cell wall xyloglucan to sustain growth. The polysaccharide is degraded and its products are transported to growing sink tissues. Auxin from the shoot controls the level of xyloglucan hydrolytic enzymes. It is not yet known how important the expression of these genes is for the control of storage xyloglucan degradation. In this work, partial cDNAs of the genes xyloglucan transglycosylase hydrolase (HcXTH1) and beta-galactosidase (HcBGAL1), both related to xyloglucan degradation, and two other genes related to sucrose metabolism [alkaline invertase (HcAlkIN1) and sucrose synthase (HcSUS1)], were isolated. The partial sequences were characterized by comparison with sequences available in the literature, and phylogenetic trees were assembled. Gene expression was evaluated at intervals of 6 h during 24 h in cotyledons, hypocotyl, roots, and leaves, using 45-d-old plantlets. HcXTH1 and HcBGAL1 were correlated to xyloglucan degradation and responded to auxin and light, being down-regulated when transport of auxin was prevented by N-1-naphthylphthalamic acid (NPA) and stimulated by constant light. Genes related to sucrose metabolism, HcAlkIN1 and HcSUS1, responded to inhibition of auxin transport in consonance with storage mobilization in the cotyledons. A model is proposed suggesting that auxin and light are involved in the control of the expression of genes related to storage xyloglucan mobilization in seedlings of H. courbaril. It is concluded that gene expression plays a role in the control of the intercommunication system of the source-sink relationship during seeding growth, favouring its establishment in the shaded environment of the rain forest understorey.

Consequences of Simulated Loss of Open Cerrado Areas to Bird Functional Diversity

Over the past 35 years, more than two thirds of the Cerrado`s original expanse has been taken by agriculture. Even if some attempts have been made to conserve closed cerrado physiognomies, open cerrado physiognomies, richer in species and more fragile, have been systematically ignored. These open physiognomies are used by almost half of the Cerrado bird species, many of which being endemics. Using data from 11 surveys carried out in Cerrado landscapes, we asked what would happen to bird functional diversity if open cerrado species became extinct. Open cerrado birds would be able to keep on average 59% of the functional diversity. If they became extinct, on average 27% of the functional diversity would be lost. In this case, the remaining functional diversity would be lower than what would be expected by chance in five sites. Although many functions were shared by both open cerrado and forest species, there was some degree of complementarity between them, highlighted by the decrease in functional diversity when the former became extinct. Destruction of open cerrado physiognomies would lead to a habitat simplification, decrease in bird functional diversity, and, ultimately, to a considerable impact on community functioning. Thus, open cerrado physiognomies must receive much more conservation attention than they are currently receiving, because they maintain a high bird functional diversity that would otherwise be considerably diminished Were open cerrado species to become extinct.

Relative effects of fragment size and connectivity on bird community in the Atlantic Rain Forest: Implications for conservation

It is known that large fragment sizes and high connectivity levels are key components for maintaining species in fragments; however, their relative effects are poorly understood, especially in tropical areas. In order to test these effects, we built models for explaining understory birds occurrence in a fragmented Atlantic Rain Forest landscape with intermediate habitat cover (3%). Data from over 9000 mist-net hours from 17 fragments differing in size (2-175 ha) and connectivity (considering corridor linkages and distance to nearby fragments) were ranked under a model selection approach. A total 1293 individuals of 62 species were recorded. Species richness, abundance and compositional variation were mainly affected by connectivity indices that consider the capacity of species to use corridors and/or to cross short distances up to 30 m through the matrix. Bird functional groups were differently affected by area and connectivity: while terrestrial insectivores, omnivores and frugivores were affected by both area and connectivity, the other groups (understory insectivores, nectarivores, and others) were affected only by connectivity. In the studied landscape, well connected fragments can sustain an elevated number of species and individuals. Connectivity gives the opportunity for individuals to use multiple fragments, reducing the influence of fragment size. While preserving large fragments is a conservation target worldwide and should continue to be, our results indicated that connectivity between fragments can enhance the area functionally connected and is beneficial to all functional groups and therefore should be a conservation priority. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.