Bayesian data assimilation

This thesis addresses data assimilation, which typically refers to the estimation of the state of a physical system given a model and observations, and its application to short-term precipitation forecasting. A general introduction to data assimilation is given, both from a deterministic and' stochastic point of view. Data assimilation algorithms are reviewed, in the static case (when no dynamics are involved), then in the dynamic case. A double experiment on two non-linear models, the Lorenz 63 and the Lorenz 96 models, is run and the comparative performance of the methods is discussed in terms of quality of the assimilation, robustness "in the non-linear regime and computational time. Following the general review and analysis, data assimilation is discussed in the particular context of very short-term rainfall forecasting (nowcasting) using radar images. An extended Bayesian precipitation nowcasting model is introduced. The model is stochastic in nature and relies on the spatial decomposition of the rainfall field into rain "cells". Radar observations are assimilated using a Variational Bayesian method in which the true posterior distribution of the parameters is approximated by a more tractable distribution. The motion of the cells is captured by a 20 Gaussian process. The model is tested on two precipitation events, the first dominated by convective showers, the second by precipitation fronts. Several deterministic and probabilistic validation methods are applied and the model is shown to retain reasonable prediction skill at up to 3 hours lead time. Extensions to the model are discussed.

Sustainable purchasing practices:an investigation into current industry awareness and practice

This research study illustrates the importance of sustainable purchasing practices for organizations in the U.S. distribution industry and answers several important questions: what is the current awareness of U.S. organizations regarding sustainable purchasing practices; to what extent are U.S. organizations evaluating, selecting, and retaining suppliers based upon sustainable purchasing practices; and to what extent are sustainable purchasing practices being implemented by the U.S. organizations under study? With an ever increasing global economy, is it critically important for organizations to put in place sustainability practices; the biggest impact organizations can make is often in an organization’s purchasing department. The researcher begins by explaining the reasoning for conducting the research, and then builds the readers’ understanding of sustainability in a supply chain environment. It then moves to the subject of how sustainable purchasing can be an advantageous method for bringing about “triple bottom line” savings to an organization. This section is followed by the researcher’s methodology and ending results for a survey conducted to examine the current awareness and implementation of sustainable purchasing practices among U.S. plumbing, heating, cooling and piping (PHCP) distribution firms who participated in the study.

Responsive fixture design using dynamic product inspection and monitoring technologies for the precision machining of large-scale aerospace parts

When machining a large-scale aerospace part, the part is normally located and clamped firmly until a set of features are machined. When the part is released, its size and shape may deform beyond the tolerance limits due to stress release. This paper presents the design of a new fixing method and flexible fixtures that would automatically respond to workpiece deformation during machining. Deformation is inspected and monitored on-line, and part location and orientation can be adjusted timely to ensure follow-up operations are carried out under low stress and with respect to the related datum defined in the design models.

Review of the application of flexible, measurement-assisted assembly technology in aircraft manufacturing

Aircraft assembly is the most important part of aircraft manufacturing. A large number of assembly fixtures must be used to ensure the assembly accuracy in the aircraft assembly process. Traditional fixed assembly fixture could not satisfy the change of the aircraft types, so the digital flexible assembly fixture was developed and was gradually applied in the aircraft assembly. Digital flexible assembly technology has also become one of the research directions in the field of aircraft manufacturing. The aircraft flexible assembly can be divided into three assembly stages that include component-level flexible assembly, large component-level flexible assembly, and large components alignment and joining. This article introduces the architecture of flexible assembly systems and the principles of three types of flexible assembly fixtures. The key technologies of the digital flexible assembly are also discussed. The digital metrology system provides the basis for the accurate digital flexible assembly. Aircraft flexible assembly systems mainly use laser tracking metrology systems and indoor Global Positioning System metrology systems. With the development of flexible assembly technology, the digital flexible assembly system will be widely used in current aircraft manufacturing.

Assessment of biodegradable magnesium alloys for enhanced mechanical and biocompatible properties

Biomaterials have been used for more than a century in the human body to improve body functions and replace damaged tissues. Currently approved and commonly used metallic biomaterials such as, stainless steel, titanium, cobalt chromium and other alloys have been found to have adverse effects leading in some cases, to mechanical failure and rejection of the implant. The physical or chemical nature of the degradation products of some implants initiates an adverse foreign body reaction in the tissue. Some metallic implants remain as permanent fixtures, whereas others such as plates, screws and pins used to secure serious fractures are removed by a second surgical procedure after the tissue has healed sufficiently. However, repeat surgical procedures increase the cost of health care and the possibility of patient morbidity. This study focuses on the development of magnesium based biodegradable alloys/metal matrix composites (MMCs) for orthopedic and cardiovascular applications. The Mg alloys/MMCs possessed good mechanical properties and biocompatible properties. Nine different compositions of Mg alloys/MMCs were manufactured and surface treated. Their degradation behavior, ion leaching, wettability, morphology, cytotoxicity and mechanical properties were determined. Alloying with Zn, Ca, HA and Gd and surface treatment resulted in improved mechanical properties, corrosion resistance, reduced cytotoxicity, lower pH and hydrogen evolution. Anodization resulted in the formation of a distinct oxide layer (thickness 5-10 μm) as compared with that produced on mechanically polished samples (~20-50 nm) under ambient conditions. It is envisaged that the findings of this research will introduce a new class of Mg based biodegradable alloys/MMCs and the emergence of innovative cardiovascular and orthopedic implant devices.^

Parallel relationships, architecture and water : the urban spa

This thesis explores the relationship of architecture and water through the design of an urban spa that offers both a bodily and a poetic experience of water. Research included investigation of recent architectural projects that enhance and order the view, sound, and touch of water as well as projects that integrate fountains, showers and reflecting pools into the experience of a building. In the design of the spa, the movement of water was based metaphorically on the natural water cycle: evaporation, condensation and collection of water in pools. The building presents fountains, rivulets, and pools in a descending sequence that represents the natural flow of water. The temperature of water and the activities of the spa follow the same descending sequence, progressing from a warm water bath at the top of the building to cool swimming pool at the plaza level in a contemporary interpretation of the experience of a Roman Bath.

Water Governance in Haiti: An Assessment of Laws and Institutional Capacities

The Republic of Haiti struggles to sustainably manage its water resources. Public health is compromised by low levels of water supply, sanitation, and hygiene, and water resources are often contaminated and unsustainably allocated. While poor governance is often blamed for these shortcomings, the laws and institutions regulating water resources in Haiti are poorly understood, especially by the international community. This study brings together and analyzes Haitian water laws, assesses institutional capacities, and provides a case study of water management in northern Haiti in order to provide a more complete picture of the sector. Funded by the Inter-American Development Bank as part of the Water Availability, Quality and Integrated Water Resources Management in Northern Haiti (HA-T1179) Project, this study took place from January-July 2015, with the help of local experts and participating stakeholders. The results indicate that Haiti’s water law framework is highly fragmented, with overlapping mandates and little coordination between ministries at the national level, and ambiguous but unrealistic roles for subnational governments. A capacity assessment of institutions in northern Haiti illustrates that while local stakeholders are engaged, human and financial resources are insufficient to carry out statutory responsibilities. The findings suggest that water resources management planning should engage local governments and community fixtures while supplementing capacities with national or international support.

Advanced functionality for radio analysis in the Offline software framework of the Pierre Auger Observatory.

The advent of the Auger Engineering Radio Array (AERA) necessitates the development of a powerful framework for the analysis of radio measurements of cosmic ray air showers. As AERA performs "radio-hybrid" measurements of air shower radio emission in coincidence with the surface particle detectors and fluorescence telescopes of the Pierre Auger Observatory, the radio analysis functionality had to be incorporated in the existing hybrid analysis solutions for fluorescence and surface detector data. This goal has been achieved in a natural way by extending the existing Auger Offline software framework with radio functionality. In this article, we lay out the design, highlights and features of the radio extension implemented in the Auger Offline framework. Its functionality has achieved a high degree of sophistication and offers advanced features such as vectorial reconstruction of the electric field, advanced signal processing algorithms, a transparent and efficient handling of FFTs, a very detailed simulation of detector effects, and the read-in of multiple data formats including data from various radio simulation codes. The source code of this radio functionality can be made available to interested parties on request. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Energy estimation of cosmic rays with the Engineering Radio Array of the Pierre Auger Observatory

The Auger Engineering Radio Array (AERA) is part of the Pierre Auger Observatory and is used to detect the radio emission of cosmic-ray air showers. These observations are compared to the data of the surface detector stations of the Observatory, which provide well-calibrated information on the cosmic-ray energies and arrival directions. The response of the radio stations in the 30-80 MHz regime has been thoroughly calibrated to enable the reconstruction of the incoming electric field. For the latter, the energy deposit per area is determined from the radio pulses at each observer position and is interpolated using a two-dimensional function that takes into account signal asymmetries due to interference between the geomagnetic and charge-excess emission components. The spatial integral over the signal distribution gives a direct measurement of the energy transferred from the primary cosmic ray into radio emission in the AERA frequency range. We measure 15.8 MeV of radiation energy for a 1 EeV air shower arriving perpendicularly to the geomagnetic field. This radiation energy-corrected for geometrical effects-is used as a cosmic-ray energy estimator. Performing an absolute energy calibration against the surface-detector information, we observe that this radio-energy estimator scales quadratically with the cosmic-ray energy as expected for coherent emission. We find an energy resolution of the radio reconstruction of 22% for the data set and 17% for a high-quality subset containing only events with at least five radio stations with signal.

The Metrology Enhanced Tooling for Aerospace (META) framework

Aerospace manufacturers typically use monolithic steel fixtures to control the form of assemblies. This tooling is very expensive, has long lead times and has little ability to accommodate product variation and design changes. Since the tool setting and recertification process is manual and time consuming, monolithic structures are required in order to maintain the tooling tolerances for multiple years without recertification. This paper introduces the Metrology Enhanced Tooling for Aerospace (META) Framework which interfaces multiple metrology technologies with the tooling, components, workers and automation. This will allow rapid or even real-time fixture re-certification with improved product verification leading to a reduced risk of product non-conformance and increased fixture utilization while facilitating flexible fixtures.