Estimating Annual CO2 Flux for Lutjewad Station Using Three Different Gap-Filling Techniques

Long-term measurements of CO2 flux can be obtained using the eddy covariance technique, but these datasets are affected by gaps which hinder the estimation of robust long-term means and annual ecosystem exchanges. We compare results obtained using three gap-fill techniques: multiple regression (MR), multiple imputation (MI), and artificial neural networks (ANNs), applied to a one-year dataset of hourly CO2 flux measurements collected in Lutjewad, over a flat agriculture area near the Wadden Sea dike in the north of the Netherlands. The dataset was separated in two subsets: a learning and a validation set. The performances of gap-filling techniques were analysed by calculating statistical criteria: coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), maximum absolute error (MaxAE), and mean square bias (MSB). The gap-fill accuracy is seasonally dependent, with better results in cold seasons. The highest accuracy is obtained using ANN technique which is also less sensitive to environmental/seasonal conditions. We argue that filling gaps directly on measured CO2 fluxes is more advantageous than the common method of filling gaps on calculated net ecosystem change, because ANN is an empirical method and smaller scatter is expected when gap filling is applied directly to measurements.

Independent variations of CH₄ emissions and isotopic composition over the past 160,000 years

During the last glacial cycle, greenhouse gas concentrations fluctuated on decadal and longer timescales. Concentrations of methane, as measured in polar ice cores, show a close connection with Northern Hemisphere temperature variability, but the contribution of the various methane sources and sinks to changes in concentration is still a matter of debate. Here we assess changes in methane cycling over the past 160,000 years by measurements of the carbon isotopic composition delta C-13 of methane in Antarctic ice cores from Dronning Maud Land and Vostok. We find that variations in the delta C-13 of methane are not generally correlated with changes in atmospheric methane concentration, but instead more closely correlated to atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We interpret this to reflect a climatic and CO2-related control on the isotopic signature of methane source material, such as ecosystem shifts in the seasonally inundated tropical wetlands that produce methane. In contrast, relatively stable delta C-13 values occurred during intervals of large changes in the atmospheric loading of methane. We suggest that most methane sources-most notably tropical wetlands-must have responded simultaneously to climate changes across these periods.

A High-Resolution Record of Atmospheric Dust Composition and Variability Since Ad 1650 from a Mount Everest Ice Core

A Mount Everest ice core analyzed at high resolution for major and trace elements (Sr, Cs, Ba, La, Ce, Pr, Nd, Sm, Eu, Tb, Dy, Ho, Er, Tm, Yb, Lu, Bi, U, Tl, Al, S, Ca, Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co) and spanning the period A. D. 1650- 2002 is used to investigate the sources of and variations in atmospheric dust through time. The chemical composition of dust varies seasonally, and peak dust concentrations occur during the winter-spring months. Significant correlations between the Everest dust record and dust observations at stations suggest that the Everest record is representative of regional variations in atmospheric dust loading. Back-trajectory analysis in addition to a significant correlation of Everest dust concentrations and the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) aerosol index indicates that the dominant winter sources of dust are the Arabian Peninsula, Thar Desert, and northern Sahara. Factors that contribute to dust generation at the surface include soil moisture and temperature, and the long-range transport of dust aerosols appears to be sensitive to the strength of 500-mb zonal winds. There are periods of high dust concentration throughout the 350-yr Mount Everest dust record; however, there is an increase in these periods since the early 1800s. The record was examined for recent increases in dust emissions associated with anthropogenic activities, but no recent dust variations can be conclusively attributed to anthropogenic inputs of dust.

Estimating Spatial Distribution of American Lobster Homarus Americanus Using Habitat Variables

The spatial distribution of the American lobster Homarus americanus is influenced by many factors, which are often difficult to quantify. We implemented a modeling approach for quantifying season-, size-, and sex-specific lobster spatial distribution in the Gulf of Maine with respect to environmental and spatial variables including bottom temperature, bottom salinity, latitude, longitude, depth, distance offshore, and 2 substratum features. Lobster distribution was strongly associated with temperature and depth, and differed seasonally by sex. In offshore waters in the fall, females were dominant at higher latitudes and males at lower latitudes. This segregation was not apparent in the spring although females were still dominant at higher latitudes in offshore waters. Juveniles and adults were also distributed differently; juveniles were more abundant at the lower latitudes in inshore waters, while adults were more widespread along the entire coast. These patterns are consistent with the ecology of the American lobster. This study provides a tool to evaluate changes in lobster spatial distribution with respect to changes in key habitat and other environmental variables, and consequently could be of value for the management of the American lobster.

Spatial Patterns in Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Chlorophyll and Sea Surface Temperature in the California Current

Physical forcing and biological response within the California Current System (CCS) are highly variable over a wide range of scales. Satellite remote sensing offers the only feasible means of quantifying this variability over the full extent of the CCS. Using six years (1997-2003) of daily SST and chlorophyll imagery, we map the spatial dependence of dominant temporal variability at resolutions sufficient to identify recurrent mesoscale circulation and local pattern associated with coastal topography. Here we describe mean seasonal cycles and interannual variation; intraseasonal variability is left to a companion paper ( K. R. Legaard and A. C. Thomas, manuscript in preparation, 2006). Coastal upwelling dictates seasonality along north-central California, where weak cycles of SST fluctuate between spring minima and late summer maxima and chlorophyll peaks in early summer. Off northern California, chlorophyll maxima are bounded offshore by the seasonally recurrent upwelling jet. Seasonal cycles differ across higher latitudes and in the midlatitude Southern California Bight, where upwelling winds are less vigorous and/or persistent. Seasonality along south-central Baja is strongly affected by processes other than upwelling, despite year-round upwelling-favorable winds. Interannual variation is generally dominated by El Nino and La Nina conditions. Interannual SST variance is greatest along south-central Baja, although interannual variability constitutes a greater fraction of total variance inshore along southern Oregon and much of California. Patterns of interannual chlorophyll variance are consistent with dominant forcing through the widespread depression and elevation of the nutricline during El Nino and La Nina, respectively. Interannual variability constitutes a greater fraction of total chlorophyll variance offshore.

Migratory Urge and Gill Na(+),K(+)-ATPase Activity of Hatchery-Reared Atlantic Salmon Smolts from the Dennys and Penobscot River Stocks, Maine

Hatchery-reared Atlantic salmon Salmo salar smolts produced from captive-reared Dennys River and sea-run Penobscot River broodstock are released into their source rivers in Maine. The adult return rate of Dennys smolts is comparatively low, and disparity in smolt quality between stocks resulting from genetic or broodstock rearing effects is plausible. Smolt behavior and physiology were assessed during sequential 14-d trials conducted in seminatural annular tanks with circular flow. "Migratory urge'' (downstream movement) was monitored remotely using passive integrated transponder tags, and gill Na(+),K(+)-ATPase activity was measured at the beginning and end of the trials to provide an index of smolt development. The migratory urge of both stocks was low in early April, increased 20-fold through late May, and declined by the end of June. The frequency and seasonal distribution of downstream movement were independent of stock. In March and April, initial gill Na(+),K(+)-ATPase activities of Penobscot River smolts were lower than those of Dennys River smolts. For these trials, however, Penobscot River smolts increased enzyme activity after exposure to the tank, whereas Dennys River smolts did not, resulting in similar activities between stocks at the end of all trials. There was no clear relationship between migratory urge and gill Na(+),K(+)-ATPase activity. Gill Na(+),K(+)-ATPase activity of both stocks increased in advance of migratory urge and then declined while migratory urge was increasing. Maximum movement was observed from 2 h after sunset through 1 h after sunrise but varied seasonally. Dennys River smolts were slightly more nocturnal than Penobscot River smolts. These data suggest that Dennys and Penobscot River stocks are not markedly different in either physiological or behavioral expression of smolting.

Dependence of Eemian Greenland temperature reconstructions on the ice sheet topography

The influence of a reduced Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) on Greenland's surface climate during the Eemian interglacial is studied using a set of simulations with different GrIS realizations performed with a comprehensive climate model. We find a distinct impact of changes in the GrIS topography on Greenland's surface air temperatures (SAT) even when correcting for changes in surface elevation, which influences SAT through the lapse rate effect. The resulting lapse-rate-corrected SAT anomalies are thermodynamically driven by changes in the local surface energy balance rather than dynamically caused through anomalous advection of warm/cold air masses. The large-scale circulation is indeed very stable among all sensitivity experiments and the Northern Hemisphere (NH) flow pattern does not depend on Greenland's topography in the Eemian. In contrast, Greenland's surface energy balance is clearly influenced by changes in the GrIS topography and this impact is seasonally diverse. In winter, the variable reacting strongest to changes in the topography is the sensible heat flux (SHF). The reason is its dependence on surface winds, which themselves are controlled to a large extent by the shape of the GrIS. Hence, regions where a receding GrIS causes higher surface wind velocities also experience anomalous warming through SHF. Vice-versa, regions that become flat and ice-free are characterized by low wind speeds, low SHF, and anomalous low winter temperatures. In summer, we find surface warming induced by a decrease in surface albedo in deglaciated areas and regions which experience surface melting. The Eemian temperature records derived from Greenland proxies, thus, likely include a temperature signal arising from changes in the GrIS topography. For the Eemian ice found in the NEEM core, our model suggests that up to 3.1 °C of the annual mean Eemian warming can be attributed to these topography-related processes and hence is not necessarily linked to large-scale climate variations.

A Lagrangian Analysis of the Northern Hemisphere Subtropical Jet

This study presents a 5-yr climatology of 7-day back trajectories started from the Northern Hemisphere subtropical jet. These trajectories provide insight into the seasonally and regionally varying angular momentum and potential vorticity characteristics of the air parcels that end up in the subtropical jet. The trajectories reveal preferred pathways of the air parcels that reach the subtropical jet from the tropics and the extratropics and allow estimation of the tropical and extratropical forcing of the subtropical jet. The back trajectories were calculated 7 days back in time and started every 6 h from December 2005 to November 2010 using the Interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) dataset as a basis. The trajectories were started from the 345-K isentrope in areas where the wind speed exceeded a seasonally varying threshold and where the wind shear was confined to upper levels. During winter, the South American continent, the Indian Ocean, and the Maritime Continent are preferred areas of ascent into the upper troposphere. From these areas, air parcels follow an anticyclonic pathway into the subtropical jet. During summer, the majority of air parcels ascend over the Himalayas and Southeast Asia. Angular momentum is overall well conserved for trajectories that reach the subtropical jet from the deep tropics. In winter and spring, the hemispheric-mean angular momentum loss amounts to approximately 6%; in summer, it amounts to approximately 18%; and in fall, it amounts to approximately 13%. This seasonal variability is confirmed using an independent potential vorticity–based method to estimate tropical and extratropical forcing of the subtropical jet.

Exposure to stallion accelerates the onset of mares' cyclicity.

Horses (Equus caballus) belong to the group of seasonally polyestrous mammals. Estrous cycles typically start with increasing daylight length after winter, but mares can differ greatly in the timing of onset of regular estrus cycles. Here, we test whether spatial proximity to a stallion also plays a role. Twenty-two anestrous mares were either exposed to one of two stallions (without direct physical contact) or not exposed (controls) under experimental conditions during two consecutive springs (February to April). Ovarian activity was monitored via transrectal ultrasound and stallion's direct contact time with each mare was determined three times per week for one hour each. We found that mares exposed to a stallion ovulated earlier and more often during the observational period than mares that were not exposed to stallions. Neither stallion identity nor direct contact time, mare age, body condition, size of her largest follicle at the onset of the experiment, or parasite burden significantly affected the onset of cyclicity. In conclusion, the timing of estrous cycles and cycle frequency, i.e., crucial aspects of female reproductive strategy, strongly depend on how the mares perceive their social environment. Exposing mares to the proximity of a stallion can therefore be an alternative to, for example, light programs or elaborated hormonal therapies to start the breeding season earlier and increase the number of estrous cycles in horses.

Long-term man–environment interactions in the Bolivian Amazon: 8000 years of vegetation dynamics

Only few studies documenting the vegetation history of the Llanos de Moxos, one of the largest seasonally flooded wetland areas in South America, are available and little is known about the environmental impact of pre-Columbian settlements. We use radiocarbon-dated terrestrial plant macrofossils to establish a sound chronology and palynological analyses to reconstruct the vegetation and fire history of the Lago Rogaguado area. The sedimentary pollen and spore record suggests that wetland and wooded savannah (Cerrado) environments occurred around the lake between 8100 and 5800 cal BP. Fire activity was high during this period and was probably connected to the dry Cerrado environments. The pollen evidence suggests early plant cultivation (Zea mays, Annonaceae and Cucurbitaceae) from 6500 cal BP onwards, which is significantly earlier than hitherto assumed for Amazonia. Gallery forests expanded after 5800 cal BP, when fire activity strongly declined. Forest expansion intensified around 2800 cal BP and continued until 2000 cal BP, when forest cover reached its maximum and fire activity its minimum. The late-Holocene forest expansion to the south and the decrease of fire activity may have resulted from a climatic shift to moister conditions (possibly a shorter dry season). New crops (e.g. Avena-type) or adventive plants (e.g. Rumex acetosella-type) document the impact of European economies after ca. 500 cal BP. Land use intensity remained rather stable over the most recent centuries, arguing against a collapse of settlements in response to the arrival of Europeans, as reconstructed from other Amazonian pollen records.

The supergene thorium and rare-earth element deposit at Morro do Ferro, Poços de Caldas, Minas Gerais, Brazil

The thorium and rare-earth element (Th-REE) deposit at Morro do Ferro formed under supergene lateritic weathering conditions. The ore body consists of shallow NW-SE elongated argillaceous lenses that extend from the top of the hill downwards along its south-eastern slope. The deposit is capped by a network of magnetite layers which protected the underlying highly weathered, argillaceous host rock from excessive erosion. The surrounding country rocks comprise a sequence of subvolcanic phonolite intrusions that have been strongly altered by hydrothermal and supergene processes. From petrological, mineralogical and geochemical studies, and mass balance calculations, it is inferred that the highly weathered host rock was originally carbonatitic in composition, initially enriched in Th and REEs compared to the surrounding silicate rocks. The intrusion of the carbonatite caused fenitic alteration in the surrounding phonolites, consisting of early potassic alteration followed by a vein-type Th-REE mineralization with associated fluorite, carbonate, pyrite and zircon. Subsequent weathering has completely decomposed the carbonatite forming a residual supergene enrichment of Th and REEs. Initial weathering of the carbonatite has created a chemical environment that might have been conductive to carbonate and phosphate complexing of the REEs in groundwaters. This may have appreciably restricted the dissolution of primary REE phases. Strongly oxidic weathering has resulted in a fractionation between Ce and the other light rare earth elements (LREEs). Ce3+ is oxidized to Ce4+ and retained together with Th by secondary mineral formation (cerianite, thorianite), and by adsorption on poorly crystalline iron- and aluminium-hydroxides. In contrast, the trivalent LREEs are retained to a lesser degree and are thus more available for secondary mineral formation (Nd-lanthanite) and adsorption at greater depths down the weathering column. Seasonally controlled fluctuations of recharge waters into the weathering column may help to explain the observed repetition of Th-Ce enriched zones underlain by trivalent LREE enriched zones.

A study of oxygen isotopic fractionation during bio-induced calcite precipitation in eutrophic Baldeggersee, Switzerland

In order to better understand environmental factors controlling oxygen isotope shifts in autochthonous lacustrine carbonate sequences, we undertook an extensive one-year study (March, 1995 to February, 1996) of water-column chemistry and daily sediment trap material from a small lake in Central Switzerland. Comparisons between calculated equilibrium isotope values, using the fractionation equation of Friedman and O’Neil, (1977) and measured oxygen isotope ratios of calcite in the sediment-traps reveal that oxygen isotopic values of autochthonous calcite (δ18O) are in isotopic equilibrium with ambient water during most of the spring and summer, when the majority of the calcite precipitates. In contrast, small amounts of calcite precipitated in early-spring and again in late-autumn are isotopically depleted in 18O relative to the calculated equilibrium values, by as much as 0.8‰. This seasonally occurring apparent isotopic nonequilibrium is associated with times of high phosphorous concentrations, elevated pH (∼8.6) and increased [CO32−] (∼50 μmol/l) in the surface waters. The resulting weighted average δ18O value for the studied period is −9.6‰, compared with a calculated equilibrium δ18O value of −9.4‰. These data convincingly demonstrate that δ18O of calcite are, for the most part, a very reliable proxy for temperature and δ18O of the water.

Seasonal Variability in the Bacteriolytic Capacity of the Deposit Feeder Arenicola Marina: Environmental Correlates

Although deposit-feeding macrofauna consume and digest sedimentary bacteria, it is unclear whether feeding rates and digestion efficiencies are high enough to significantly impact the composition and abundance of bacteria in marine sediments. It is likely that both feeding rates and efficiency of digestion vary markedly through space and time. We used a turbidimetric assay to compare the rate of bacteriolysis by digestive fluids collected seasonally from the deposit-feeding polychaete Arenicola marina. Under standardized, experimental conditions, bacteriolytic rates represent concentrations of lytic agents. This concentration was found to vary significantly throughout the year (p = 0.001), showing greater than a 2x range. Lytic agent concentration was positively correlated with bioavailable amino acid concentrations in the surface sediment (r = 0.85, p = 0.03) but showed no apparent relationship to other proxies for food resources (e.g, chl a), sediment temperature, or gut throughput time. In vitro, temperature has been shown to have a strong positive influence on bacteriolytic rate. Temperature has no influence, however, on the in situ concentration of lytic agent in gut fluids, thus it appears that compensation for this temperature dependence is unimportant. These findings, combined with previous kinetics studies with A. marina gut fluids, predict that the quantitative influence of deposit feeding on the microbial ecology of sediments will exhibit clear seasonal variation.

Season of Birth Effects in Autism Spectrum Disorders

One factor that is investigated as a possible clue to etiological factors in Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD) is season of birth. Season of birth effects could be the result of temperature, toxins, dietary changes, viral infections, and cultural or social factors that change seasonally (Bolton, Pickles, Harrington, Macdonald, & Rutter, 1992). A number of studies have looked for season of birth effects in ASD with no conclusive results. The current study analyzed season of birth effects in a sample of 441 children diagnosed with ASD. Analysis was also repeated after excluding prematurely born children from the data. Level of functioning and gender effects were tested by breaking the sample into a number of sub-groups. While there were no season of birth effects in the sample of all children with ASD when compared to children without ASD in either the entire sample or the non-premature sample, there were significant differences in the season of birth of low functioning children with ASD when compared with high functioning children with ASD.

A STUDY OF INFLUENZA AND OF STATISTICAL METHODS USED TO REPORT INFLUENZA

This paper defines and compares several models for describing excess influenza pneumonia mortality in Houston. First, the methodology used by the Center for Disease Control is examined and several variations of this methodology are studied. All of the models examined emphasize the difficulty of omitting epidemic weeks.^ In an attempt to find a better method of describing expected and epidemic mortality, time series methods are examined. Grouping in four-week periods, truncating the data series to adjust epidemic periods, and seasonally-adjusting the series y(,t), by:^ (DIAGRAM, TABLE OR GRAPHIC OMITTED...PLEASE SEE DAI)^ is the best method examined. This new series w(,t) is stationary and a moving average model MA(1) gives a good fit for forecasting influenza and pneumonia mortality in Houston.^ Influenza morbidity, other causes of death, sex, race, age, climate variables, environmental factors, and school absenteeism are all examined in terms of their relationship to influenza and pneumonia mortality. Both influenza morbidity and ischemic heart disease mortality show a very high relationship that remains when seasonal trends are removed from the data. However, when jointly modeling the three series it is obvious that the simple time series MA(1) model of truncated, seasonally-adjusted four-week data gives a better forecast.^