Cold-season temperatures in the European Alps during the past millennium: variability, seasonality and recent trends

This study presents a proxy-based, quantitative reconstruction of cold-season (mean October to May, TOct–May) air temperatures covering nearly the entire last millennium (AD 1060–2003, some hiatuses). The reconstruction was based on subfossil chrysophyte stomatocyst remains in the varved sediments of high-Alpine Lake Silvaplana, eastern Swiss Alps (46°27’N, 9°48′W, 1791 m a.s.l.). Previous studies have demonstrated the reliability of this proxy by comparison to meteorological data. Cold-season air temperatures could therefore be reconstructed quantitatively, at a high resolution (5-yr) and with high chronological accuracy. Spatial correlation analysis suggests that the reconstruction reflects cold season climate variability over the high- Alpine region and substantial parts of central and western Europe. Cold-season temperatures were characterized by a relatively stable first part of the millennium until AD 1440 (2σ of 5-yr mean values = 0.7 °C) and highly variable TOct–May after that (AD 1440–1900, 2σ of 5-yr mean values = 1.3 °C). Recent decades (AD, 1991-present) were unusually warm in the context of the last millennium (exceeding the 2σ-range of the mean decadal TOct–May) but this warmth was not unprecedented. The coolest decades occurred from AD 1510–1520 and AD 1880–1890. The timing of extremely warm and cold decades is generally in good agreement with documentary data representing Switzerland and central European lowlands. The transition from relatively stable to highly variable TOct–May coincided with large changes in atmospheric circulation patterns in the North Atlantic region. Comparison of reconstructed cold season temperatures to the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO) during the past 1000 years showed that the relatively stable and warm conditions at the study site until AD 1440 coincided with a persistent positive mode of the NAO. We propose that the transition to large TOct–May variability around AD 1440 was linked to the subsequent absence of this persistent zonal flow pattern, which would allow other climatic drivers to gain importance in the study area. From AD 1440–1900, the similarity of reconstructed TOct–May to reconstructed air pressure in the Siberian High suggests a relatively strong influence of continental anticyclonic systems on Alpine cold season climate parameters during periods when westerly airflow was subdued. A more continental type of atmospheric circulation thus seems to be characteristic for the Little Ice Age in Europe. Comparison of Toct–May to summer temperature reconstructions from the same study site shows that, as expected, summer and cold season temperature trends and variability differed completely throughout nearly the entire last 1000 years. Since AD 1980, however, summer and cold season temperatures show a simultaneous, strong increase, which is unprecedented in the context of the last millennium. We suggest that the most likely explanation for this recent trend is anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing.

A chrysophyte stomatocyst-based reconstruction of cold-season air temperature from Alpine Lake Silvaplana (AD 1500–2003); methods and concepts for quantitative inferences

Relatively little is known about past cold-season temperature variability in high-Alpine regions because of a lack of natural cold-season temperature proxies as well as under-representation of high-altitude sites in meteorological, early-instrumental and documentary data sources. Recent studies have shown that chrysophyte stomatocysts, or simply cysts (sub-fossil algal remains of Chrysophyceae and Synurophyceae), are among the very few natural proxies that can be used to reconstruct cold-season temperatures. This study presents a quantitative, high-resolution (5-year), cold-season (Oct–May) temperature reconstruction based on sub-fossil chrysophyte stomatocysts in the annually laminated (varved) sediments of high-Alpine Lake Silvaplana, SE Switzerland (1,789 m a.s.l.), since AD 1500. We first explore the method used to translate an ecologically meaningful variable based on a biological proxy into a simple climate variable. A transfer function was applied to reconstruct the ‘date of spring mixing’ from cyst assemblages. Next, statistical regression models were tested to convert the reconstructed ‘dates of spring mixing’ into cold-season surface air temperatures with associated errors. The strengths and weaknesses of this approach are thoroughly tested. One much-debated, basic assumption for reconstructions (‘stationarity’), which states that only the environmental variable of interest has influenced cyst assemblages and the influence of confounding variables is negligible over time, is addressed in detail. Our inferences show that past cold-season air-temperature fluctuations were substantial and larger than those of other temperature reconstructions for Europe and the Alpine region. Interestingly, in this study, recent cold-season temperatures only just exceed those of previous, multi-decadal warm phases since AD 1500. These findings highlight the importance of local studies to assess natural climate variability at high altitudes.

The Influence of MGA and PG600 on the Out of Season Reproductive Performance of Ewes

Seasonal lamb supply has been established as one of the major hindrances to the American sheep industry. The ability to consistently lamb ewes on an accelerated production system offers additional benefits of reduced maintenance costs, more uniform cash flow along with reduced labor and facility demands. Previous work at McNay with spring breeding indicated that light priming rams regardless of genetic base improved conception rates, however, MGA feeding postweaning gave inconsistent and sometimes depressed reproductive activity in ewes. This study was conducted to evaluate the use of MGA in late lactation and a single PG600 injection at weaning, either individually or in combination.

Evaluation of Hay-Type and Grazing Tolerant Alfalfa Hybrids in Season-Long or Complementary Rotational Stocking Systems for Beef Cows

Pastures containing hay-type and grazing tolerant alfalfa hybrids were grazed in a season-long or complementary rotational stocking system with Nfertilized smooth bromegrass. The pastures were stocked at a seasonal density of .8 cow-calf pairs per acre for 120 days in 1998 and 141 days in 1999. Pastures were intensively managed by daily stripstocking with the assumptions that 50% of live forage was available and daily live dry matter consumption of each cow-calf pair was 3.5% of the cow’s body weight. First-cutting forage was harvested as hay from 40% of the pasture acres to remove excess forage growth early in the grazing season. Grazing occurred on the remaining 60% of each pasture for the first 44 and 54 days and 100% of each pasture after days 45 and 55 in 1998 and 1999, respectively. Proportions of ‘Amerigraze’ and ‘Affinity’ alfalfa in the live forage dry matter decreased by 70% and 55% in pastures stocked season-long and by 60% and 42% in pastures used for complementary stocking (alfalfa type, p<.05; grazing management, p<.05) in 1998, but decreased by a mean of 72% and was unaffected by hybrid or stocking system in 1999. Cows grazing either alfalfa hybrid by either grazing system had greater weight gains during the breeding and overall grazing seasons and greater increases in body condition score pre-breeding and during the breeding season than the cows that grazed smooth bromegrass for the entire season in 1998. Also, cows grazing either alfalfa hybrid in the season-long system had greater breeding season increases in body condition score than cows grazing alfalfa in the complementary system with smooth bromegrass in 1998. Cows grazing in the season-long alfalfa system had greater prebreeding season weight (p<.10) increases and condition score (p<.05) increases than cows grazing alfalfa in the complementary system in 1999. Daily and seasonal body weight gains of calves were not affected (p>.10) by the presence of alfalfa in 1998 or by alfalfa type and grazing management in 1998 and 1999. Total animal production (cow and calf) in 1998 was greater (p<.10) from the season-long alfalfa pastures compared with the complementary stocked pastures. Total (p<.10) and live (p<.05) forage masses, estimated by monthly clippings, were greater in September of 1998 from the season-long alfalfa pastures than pastures using alfalfa for complementary stocking. Total (p<.10) and live (p<.05) forage masses were greater in August of 1999 from season-long alfalfa pastures than pastures using alfalfa for complementary stocking.

Evaluation of Hay-Type and Grazing Tolerant Alfalfa Hybrids in Season-Long or Complementary Rotational Stocking Systems for Beef Cows

Pastures containing hay-type and grazing tolerant alfalfa hybrids were grazed in a season-long or complimentary rotational stocking system with Nfertilized smooth bromegrass. The pastures were stocked at a seasonal density of .8 cow-calf pairs per acre for 120 days. Pastures were intensively managed by daily strip-stocking with the assumptions that 50% of live forage was available and daily live dry matter consumption of each cow-calf pair was 3.5% of the cow’s body weight. First-cutting forage was harvested as hay from 40% of pasture acres to remove excess forage growth early in the grazing season. Forage was grazed from the remaining 60% of each pasture for the first 44 days of the experiment and then from the entire pasture thereafter. Live forage yields, estimated by monthly clippings, were greater in May and September on the season-long alfalfa pastures compared with the complementary pastures and on the alfalfa pastures compared with the N-fertilized smooth bromegrass pastures. The proportions of legumes in the live dry matter in pastures with grazing tolerant and hay-type alfalfas in the season-long grazing systems declined by 70% and 50%, respectively, in the 120 day trial. The proportions of legumes in the live dry matter in pastures with grazing tolerant and the hay-type alfalfas in the complementary grazing system declined 60% and 42%, respectively, in the 120 day trial. Cows grazing either alfalfa hybrid by either management system had greater weight gains during the breeding and grazing seasons and greater increases in body condition score prebreeding and during the breeding season than the cows that grazed N-fertilized smooth bromegrass for the entire season. Also, cows grazing either alfalfa in the season-long system had greater breeding season increases in body condition score than cows grazing alfalfa in the complementary system with N-fertilized smooth bromegrass. Daily gains and seasonal gains of calves from cows grazing the alfalfa pastures tended to be greater than those grazing N-fertilized smooth bromegrass. Within alfalfa treatments, calves of cows grazing alfalfa pastures in the season-long system tended to produce more pounds per acre than those of cows grazing alfalfa in the complementary systems.

Quantitative high-resolution warm season rainfall recorded in varved sediments of Lake Oeschinen, northern Swiss Alps: calibration and validation AD 1901–2008

High-resolution, well-calibrated records of lake sediments are critically important for quantitative climate reconstructions, but they remain a methodological and analytical challenge. While several comprehensive paleotemperature reconstructions have been developed across Europe, only a few quantitative high-resolution studies exist for precipitation. Here we present a calibration and verification study of lithoclastic sediment proxies from proglacial Lake Oeschinen (46°30′N, 7°44′E, 1,580 m a.s.l., north–west Swiss Alps) that are sensitive to rainfall for the period AD 1901–2008. We collected two sediment cores, one in 2007 and another in 2011. The sediments are characterized by two facies: (A) mm-laminated clastic varves and (B) turbidites. The annual character of the laminae couplets was confirmed by radiometric dating (210Pb, 137Cs) and independent flood-layer chronomarkers. Individual varves consist of a dark sand-size spring-summer layer enriched in siliciclastic minerals and a lighter clay-size calcite-rich winter layer. Three subtypes of varves are distinguished: Type I with a 1–1.5 mm fining upward sequence; Type II with a distinct fine-sand base up to 3 mm thick; and Type III containing multiple internal microlaminae caused by individual summer rainstorm deposits. Delta-fan surface samples and sediment trap data fingerprint different sediment source areas and transport processes from the watershed and confirm the instant response of sediment flux to rainfall and erosion. Based on a highly accurate, precise and reproducible chronology, we demonstrate that sediment accumulation (varve thickness) is a quantitative predictor for cumulative boreal alpine spring (May–June) and spring/summer (May–August) rainfall (rMJ = 0.71, rMJJA = 0.60, p < 0.01). Bootstrap-based verification of the calibration model reveals a root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEPMJ = 32.7 mm, RMSEPMJJA = 57.8 mm) which is on the order of 10–13 % of mean MJ and MJJA cumulative precipitation, respectively. These results highlight the potential of the Lake Oeschinen sediments for high-resolution reconstructions of past rainfall conditions in the northern Swiss Alps, central and eastern France and south-west Germany.

Atmospheric CO₂ response to volcanic eruptions: The role of ENSO, season, and variability

Tropical explosive volcanism is one of the most important natural factors that significantly impact the climate system and the carbon cycle on annual to multi-decadal time scales. The three largest explosive eruptions in the last 50�years�Agung, El Chichón, and Pinatubo�occurred in spring/summer in conjunction with El Niño events and left distinct negative signals in the observational temperature and CO2 records. However, confounding factors such as seasonal variability and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may obscure the forcing-response relationship. We determine for the first time the extent to which initial conditions, i.e., season and phase of the ENSO, and internal variability influence the coupled climate and carbon cycle response to volcanic forcing and how this affects estimates of the terrestrial and oceanic carbon sinks. Ensemble simulations with the Earth System Model (Climate System Model 1.4-carbon) predict that the atmospheric CO2 response is �60 larger when a volcanic eruption occurs during El Niño and in winter than during La Niña conditions. Our simulations suggest that the Pinatubo eruption contributed 11�±�6 to the 25�Pg terrestrial carbon sink inferred over the decade 1990�1999 and �2�±�1 to the 22�Pg oceanic carbon sink. In contrast to recent claims, trends in the airborne fraction of anthropogenic carbon cannot be detected when accounting for the decadal-scale influence of explosive volcanism and related uncertainties. Our results highlight the importance of considering the role of natural variability in the carbon cycle for interpretation of observations and for data-model intercomparison.

Within-Season Homing Movements of Displaced Mature Sunapee Trout (Salvelinus Alpinus) in Floods Pond, Maine

Tagging, displacemenat nd recapture, and ultrasonict racking of displaced mature Sunapee trout (Salvelinusa Ipinus) in Floods Pond, Maine, demonstrated that rapid within-season homing occurs in this relict form of Arctic char. Of the trout displaced about 1.8 km from their spawning ground from 1972 to 1975, 9% to 32% were recaptured one to four times within the same spawning season in trap nets set on the spawning ground. Eight of 14 trout tracked ultrasonically in 1975 homed in 2.5 to 10.0 h. Movements of the homing fish were variable; some trout homed paralleling the shoreline, others homed in open water or used a combination of near-shore and open-water movements. Behavior was similar between the sexes and during day and night, although two fish did begin to move just at sundown. Swimming speeds ranged from 15 to 35 cm s- 1 and averaged about 0 .6 body lengths s -1•. Swimming directions were not influenced by wind and wave direction, nor were swimming speeds within individual tracks influenced by cloud cover, wave height, or water depth. Heavy overcast at night m&y have inhibited movement. Sunapee trout are apparently familiar with the entire lake and travel widely within it. Visual features are postulated as orientational cues, though use of such cues is not clearly demonstrated by our experiments.

A 600 years warm-season temperature record from varved sediments of Lago Plomo, Northern Patagonia, Chile (47°S)

High-resolution records of calibrated proxy data for the past millennium are fundamental to place current changes into the context of pre-industrial natural forced and unforced variability. Although the need for regional spatially-explicit comprehensive reconstructions is widely recognized, the proxy data sources are still scarce, particularly for the Southern Hemisphere and especially for South America. We present a 600-year long warm season temperature record from varved sediments of Lago Plomo, a proglacial lake of the Northern Patagonian Ice field in Southern Chile (46°59′S, 72°52′W, 203 m a.s.l.). The thickness of the bright summer sediment layer relative to the dark winter layer (measured as total brightness; % reflectance 400–730 nm) is calibrated against warm season SONDJF temperature (1900–2009; r = 0.58, p(aut) = 0.056, RE = 0.52; CE = 0.15, RMSEP = 0.28 °C; five-year triangular filtered data). In Lago Plomo, warm summer temperatures lead to enhanced glacier melt and suspended sediment transport, which results in thicker light summer layers and to brighter sediments. Although Patagonia shows pronounced regional differences in decadal temperature trends and variability, the 600 years temperature reconstruction from Lago Plomo compares favourably with other regional/continental temperature records, but also emphasizes significant regional differences for which no data and information existed so far. These regional differences seem to be real as they are also reflected in modern climate data sets (1900–2010). The reconstruction shows pronounced subdecadal – multidecadal variability with cold phases during parts of the Little Ice Age (16th and 18th centuries) and in the beginning of the 20th century. The most prominent warm phase is the 19th century which is as warm as the second half of the 20th century. The exceptional summer warmth AD 1780–1810 is also found in other archives of Northern Patagonia and Central Chile. Our record shows the delayed 20th century warming in the Southern Hemisphere. The comparison between winter precipitation and summer temperature (inter-seasonal coupling) from Lago Plomo reveals alternating phases with parallel and contrasting decadal trends of winter precipitation and summer temperature (positive and negative running correlations Rwinter PP; summer TT). This observation from the sediment proxy data is also confirmed by two sets of reanalysis data for the 20th century. Reanalysis data show that phases with negative correlations between winter precipitation and summer temperature (e.g., dry winters and warm summers) at Lago Plomo are characteristic for periods when circumpolar Westerly flow is displaced southward and enhanced around 60°S.